Week 1 Matchups

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Kickoff Thursday, Sep 7th 8:20pm Eastern

Lions (
24.5) at

Chiefs (
28.5)

Over/Under 53.0

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Key Matchups
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Here we are at the start of a brand new season and that means Showdowns! Week 1 starts with an exciting matchup as the Lions visit the Chiefs. The Lions, of course, exceeded expectations last year on the back of a resurgent offense and a defense that was not nearly as bad as expected, while the Chiefs . . . are the Chiefs. This should be a fun one with a whopping 54-point total and Kansas City favored by 6.5. 

An important note: because we try to get the Week 1 NFL Edge out early, that means I’m writing this on Friday and don’t have the benefit of week-of practice reports and injury updates. That means things could change, and if they do, this article will be updated. Keep an eye on it if we get any injury news or clarity around roles that aren’t already noted here.

Kansas City

We’ll start with the Chiefs because they’re always complicated to figure out. The running back situation should be fairly clear with Isiah Pacheco as the primary 2-down back, Jerick McKinnon as the passing down back (which has also resulted in a fair bit of schemed red zone usage), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire mixing in from time to time. If we dig in here, we see that CEH never really got much run last season, as he had only 1 game of 10+ carries. Pacheco, on the other hand, had 8 such games in the regular season but was a near-zero in the passing game with just 14 targets on the year (not including a playoff game against the Bengals in which he saw six targets). McKinnon, on the other hand, is clearly a passing down back – 72 carries last year but also a whopping 71 targets, including nine (!!!) receiving touchdowns. There’s that schemed usage I was talking about, which really emerged after Mecole Hardman was injured. Hardman had been the schemed red zone guy earlier in the year so it’s possible that the red zone role rotates away from McKinnon but I don’t think it’s likely as McKinnon excelled in it, Hardman is off the team, and the only other guy who really profiles like that would be Kadarius Toney, who isn’t certain to suit up (more on him later). We’re missing DVOA stats here as Football Outsiders imploded in a wild bit of fantasy drama, but the Lions allowed 5.2 yards per carry last season and 22 rushing touchdowns, good for 3rd and 4th worst in the league, respectively. The matchup is quite favorable for Pacheco as a home favorite, and the price is very reasonable at $6,800, but just keep in mind that “Chiefs RB” has been a shakier role in recent years than what we’ve seen in the past from Andy Reid, as they have become one of the pass-happiest teams in the league in the past few seasons (hard to blame them when Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback). McKinnon is a solid option at $5,600 with a lot of touchdown equity (I think I prefer him to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who he’s priced right next to), while CEH is a pretty dubious punt option as he’s priced at $3,600 rather than the $1k range we like for punt plays, but that should also keep ownership way down as people look for value to fit the expensive studs. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we know the Chiefs by now: it’s Travis Kelce and then “everyone else.” In this case, “everyone else” includes Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS), Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, Rashee Rice, Richie James, Justyn Ross, backup tight end Noah Gray, and perhaps even some of TE3 Blake Bell. Whew. What we know is that the Chiefs rarely have a wide receiver that gets into the 80%+ snap percentages. Last season, there were only 12 occurrences of any WR seeing 80% of the snaps. Nobody ever saw 90%, and 7 of those 12 occurrences were JuJu Smith-Schuster, their big free agent WR acquisition, who is of course now on the Patriots. We can and should expect to see the Chiefs mix things up in their wide receiver group quite a bit, and a big wildcard here is the status of Kadarius Toney. Tony joined the team last year and was an oft-injured role player. He’s hurt again this year (surprise!), but if he suits up, he presents a wide range of outcomes. Tony is very talented, and I’d expect the Chiefs would like to use him as more than just a 30-40% snap guy, but the question is if his health will hold up. For the rest of this writeup, I’m going to assume that Toney misses this game, as I think it’s likely that the Chiefs will take a conservative approach in their first game of the season, but if we get any more news on him I’ll send over an update to the article. Out of the remaining WRs, my best guess is that the highest snaps will go to MVS and Skyy Moore, with Watson a consistent (though rarely targeted) field presence. Richie James has had a good preseason and his field time should primarily come at the expense of Watson, so you could negatively correlate the two of them (given the prolific passing offense of the Chiefs, I’m generally warier of rules that completely exclude certain pairings, as you can easily group yourself out of a winning lineup). The Chiefs coaching staff noted that they see Rice and Ross beginning the season as package players, so I’d be surprised if they saw more than 30% snap counts in the first game of the year, leaving them both as punt options (with Rice being expensive for a punt and thus, hopefully, coming in at lower ownership). The backup TEs are pure punt plays, while Kelce is, of course, a premium play who will compete with Amon-Ra St. Brown for the honor of being the highest-owned skill position player on the slate. You want me to write more about Kelce? I’m not sure what to say – he’s elite, the matchup is fine, and everything lines up for him to have a big game every single week. Deciding what to do with Kelce is more of a game theory/strategy question than it is, “Is Kelce a good play?” question. I’ll get more into that later. To rank the WRs, my favorite is Moore, who has had a really good preseason and was viewed as a good talent when drafted. I think he has a good chance of breaking out this year. MVS is next, as his role gives him upside but he hasn’t shown an ability to earn consistent targets in this offense. Watson follows, as he’s just $200 and will be on the field a lot. Next is James, who has shown talent when given the opportunity (but the opportunity here is a wild card), then Ross, then Rice. 

UPDATE: On Sunday, Andy Reid announced that Toney is “good to go.” So the question is, what role will he play? Last year after being acquired, Toney was playing around 30% of the snaps and he also (of course) spent some time injured. So the big question is, will Toney continue to be used as a package player like he was last season, or do the Chiefs have bigger plans for him now that he’s been with the team for a full offseason? And how does his injury status play into this, if at all? I don’t know the answers. My best guess is he falls somewhere in the 40-50% of snaps range, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that was wrong (in either direction). You can decide that this isn’t where you want to take a stand and just play into the ownership of the field on Toney, or you can decide you want to take a stand one way or another. Given his talent and the lack of WRs in this offense, personally, I want to be overweight here if it looks like ownership is going to be low (say, sub-25%) because Toney’s upside is significant.

UPDATE 2: Well the season is starting with some uncertainty as Travis Kelce injured his knee in practice and is questionable for the game. Apparently, it’s a bone bruise, though initially it seemed pretty serious (they tested his ACL, which is scary). The original writeup covers my thoughts if Kelce is in, so this update is going to be how that thinking changes if he misses. Obviously, Kelce is really the WR1 in Kansas City so that opens up a ton of targets, but it also changes the overall roster construction and strategy quite a bit. If you take $12k Kelce out of the player pool (and remember that the Chiefs other pass catchers are pretty inexpensive), all of a sudden it becomes much easier to fit all 3 of Mahomes, ASRB, and Goff, the remaining 3 studs. We’d also see ownership tick up significantly on the mid-range guys (think the 6k – 8k range, so Gibbs, Pacheco, etc.) because losing Kelce opens up extra salary to spend on those guys. What it doesn’t really change is the ownership at the low end and we’ll see fewer stars + scrubs builds. And, of course, we’ll see a lot of people play Noah Gray, who should be the one stepping into the TE1 role for the Chiefs at $2,400. Gray looked like a pretty capable pass catcher last season, catching 28 of 34 regular season targets, but the question is if he can earn targets in a very crowded offense with a lot of wide receivers….the answer to that is that I don’t know, but he’s going to be on the field plenty. At $2,400, he becomes a stronger value play to me than Kalif Raymond, Justin Watson, and those types because he should see a lot more snaps and routes run but be aware that the field is likely to view him the same way. You can definitely play him, but just recognize that if you build a roster with all 3 of Mahomes, ASRB, and Goff, and then use Gray as your value play to make it fit…well, there are going to be a lot of folks building that same type of roster, so figure out a way to make it different.

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
18.0) at

Falcons (
21.5)

Over/Under 39.5

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Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Papy324
  • Bijon Robinson has as much upside as any RB on the slate, with likely lower ownership.
  • The Falcons offensive line is one of the best in the league.
  • Miles Sanders is underpriced for his projected volume.
  • The Panthers have all new skill players on offense.

How Carolina Will Try to Win ::

The Panthers went into “lose now” mode last year, firing their (admittedly inept) head coach, riding a QB carousel, and trading away their most valuable on-field asset (Christian McCaffrey) mid-way through the season. “Lose now” wasn’t a bad strategy. The 2022 Panthers weren’t going anywhere, and CMC was only getting older. Despite their best effort to rebuild, sometimes the NFL is a funny place. After starting 1-4 and essentially throwing in the towel, the Panthers season turned around! They finished the year 6-6 and almost won the pathetic NFC South at 7-10. In the process, they dropped all the way down to number nine in the draft. The Panthers front office had their heart set on the number one pick “win or lose,” and promptly shipped four picks plus D.J Moore to the Bears for the right to draft Bryce Young.

They now enter 2023 with Frank Reich in charge, long one of the NFL’s most adaptable coaches. Reich’s recent failures with the Colts aside, he has always been an above average NFL coach. There isn’t much purpose in trying to draw conclusions about how the Panthers will attack based on last year since not only do they have a new coach, but they also have an entirely new offense. Bryce Young takes over at QB, the 6.3 million dollar man Miles Sanders is the new RB in town, and D.J. Chark, Jonathan Mingo, and Adam Thielen are all new additions. Heck, even Hayden Hurst just joined the roster. There aren’t many teams with entirely different skill position players from a year ago, but that is the case with the 2023 Panthers.

One thing we do know is that Reich has always been the type of coach who will “attack a weakness” rather than taking a “we do what we do” approach to offense. Last year, the Falcons were a sieve against the run (23rd in DVOA) and the pass (30th in DVOA), and even though they brought in a lot of new veteran faces (DE Calais Campbell // DT David Onyemata // OLB Bud Dupree // ILB Kaden Elliss // FS Jessie Bate // CB Jeff Okudah), plus a new defensive coordinator (Ryan Nielsen from NO), this unit still projects as below average. The Panthers O-line is mostly the same group as last year with the addition of fourth rounder Chandler Zavala. The Panthers were 10th in rushing DVOA last season, and their O-line projects as a middling unit (16th rated by PFF) that is stronger at run blocking. Expect the Panthers to try and win on the ground to limit their rookie QB’s mistakes in his first NFL start, but don’t be surprised if they open things up if necessary. Reich wants to win now, and he should be willing to change game plans if his team needs to catch up.

How Atlanta Will Try to Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
17.25) at

Ravens (
26.75)

Over/Under 44.0

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Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>
  • When asked about his role through the air this season, running back J.K. Dobbins responded, “You’ll see.”
  • Newcomer OC Todd Monken brings layered passing concepts and a general shift in offensive identity to Baltimore.
  • The Ravens completely retooled their pass-catching corps and now boast a wide receiver room with all three starters being former first-round draft picks in Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers, and Odell Beckham Jr.
  • John Harbaugh has been known for “statement games” throughout his tenure in Baltimore – this game very well could be one of those games.
  • First-time head coach and former 49ers defensive coordinator and defensive rookie of the year DeMeco Ryans inherits a defense with significant speed, talent, and youth in Houston.
  • Rookie EDGE Will Anderson is going to be a problem in this league.
  • Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is likely the limiting factor in what should be Houston’s offensive philosophy – control the ball, limit mistakes, and exploit mismatches over the short area of the field.

HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik both come over from the 49ers to form the youngest coaching staff in the league in conjunction with defensive coordinator Matt Burke. Slowik is a Kyle Shanahan coaching tree disciple and should carry those principles into his first stint as an offensive coordinator. When combined with Ryans as head coach, we should see an offense designed at maximizing efficiency and time of possession by generating mismatches and space in the short areas of the field. It is likely they stress minimizing mistakes and controlling the clock on offense while their young and athletic defense attempts to keep them in games. That may or may not prove difficult with a rookie quarterback, first-time playcaller, and relative youth up and down the roster.

Getting the run game established against the Ravens could prove an issue here after the Ravens continued their dominance against the run in 2022. Last year, the Ravens ranked third in yards allowed per carry (3.9), fourth in yards allowed before contact (1.19), and 12th in yards allowed after contact (2.67). Nose tackle Michael Pierce continues to be one of the best run-stoppers in the league and the Ravens were able to post those numbers with Pierce missing all but the first three games of the 2022 season. Yeah, this is not the best matchup for Slowik and the Houston rush game to see to open the season. The other side of that argument is the robust expected workload for second-year running back Dameon Pierce, who saw an absolute stranglehold on the usage with the starters in the preseason. If we consider only preseason usage as an indicator of what to expect in the regular season, Pierce should be considered one of the final remaining workhorse running backs in the league. Whether or not that usage continues into the season remains to be seen, but Pierce appears set for true elite volume this year. Journeymen Devin Singletary and Mike Boone are on hand to soak up any change of pace duties left behind by Pierce.

The Houston pass offense is one of the youngest groups in the league, helmed by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud with a pass-catching corps consisting of second-contract tight end Dalton Schultz, veteran wide receiver Robert Woods, third-year breakout candidate Nico Collins, and slot duties likely to be split between Noah Brown and effective rookie John Metchie. Expect an aerial offense designed to generate mismatches within the first five to seven yards of the line of scrimmage, which likely benefits Collins and Schultz the most. The Baltimore linebackers and secondary received a shot of adrenaline this offseason through the additions of Roquan Smith, Jadeveon Clowney, Arthur Maulet, and Rock Ya-Sin, with the biggest concern for the Ravens being the amount of turnover instead of the level of talent. That could provide enough room for Houston to take advantage of communication errors that might occur early in the season, but this Baltimore defense is rock-solid on paper.

HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
25.0) at

Browns (
22.5)

Over/Under 47.5

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Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • One of the more interesting game environments of the week, with my ultimate interest likely to come down to expected ownership.
  • Lou Anarumo remains one of the most intricate defensive philosophizers in the league but has been prone to over-commitment in certain situations, as in, he has a tendency to overanalyze certain situational play-calling spots during a game, which can expose his defense to unwarranted mismatches.
  • Anarumo lost two top-level safeties this offseason, which could exacerbate those tendencies to start the season.
  • Newcomer defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz should instill a defense primarily based on man coverage alignments based on previous coaching tendencies.
  • Surprise, surprise – Ja’Marr Chase represents the clearest path to this game environment opening up after posting truly absurd numbers against primary man coverages in 2022.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

It was a tale of two seasons for the Bengals as far as offensive tendencies went. The Bengals ran a neutral offense during the first five weeks of the 2022 season but led the league in pass rate over expectation from Week 6 on. From my offseason preview of this team, “The Bengals return the bulk of their offense after finishing the previous two seasons ranked seventh and ninth in points per game, respectively. The biggest changes for the offense heading into 2023 are the additions of left tackle Orlando Brown and tight end Irv Smith, each of whom should be considered a significant upgrade at their respective positions. The offensive core of quarterback Joe Burrow, wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, and running back Joe Mixon have all played together for the previous three seasons, adding a level of continuity that is seemingly unmatched around the league. The Bengals (and the rest of the AFC North) get a solid break through the NFL schedule makers, with eight of their games in 2023 coming against AFC South and NFC West opponents, two divisions that should be considered amongst the weaker divisions in the league. One of the more unheralded aspects of the bull case to be made for the Bengals entering 2022 is the departure of two of the better safeties in the league, Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, both of whom departed this offseason in free agency. The defense did add one of the better nickel corners through the addition of Mike Hilton, but the state of their secondary adds to a level of expected (or projected) aggression from their offense that should serve to bolster expected pass numbers this year. As in, it is possible the Bengals are involved in more shootouts when compared to the previous three seasons.” I include that in the write-up for Week 1 because this is one of the more surefire assertions I made this offseason.

The run game saw Samaje Perine depart in free agency, likely to be replaced by either Trayveon Williams or Chris Evans. Rookie fifth-round back Chase Brown is likelier to serve as depth for the early-down role than he is to contribute as a change of pace or pass-down specialist. Williams missed the entirety of the preseason but is expected to be healthy on Sunday, while Evans seemingly was on track to overtake Williams for the change of pace role prior to an injury of his own in preseason. Either way, it is highly likely the backfield dynamics remain similar to what we saw last season with Joe Mixon the lead back and either Williams or Evans mixing in for a change of pace role. The Browns ranked 30th in rush defense EPA a season ago, but the shift to a scheme with heavier roots in man coverages should help to bolster that number moving forward, considering the likely allocation of additional assets to the box. That should help to lower the significant 1.81 yards allowed before contact allowed by this defense in 2022.

Reemphasizing the above excerpt, the heart of this offense should continue to be the pass offense, primarily running through Chase with a significant supporting cast of Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Irv Smith. As we hammered throughout the 2022 season, Tee Higgins was closer to a “true two” than he was to the “co-alpha” that the field seemed to think he was throughout the bulk of last year, meaning his inclusion in the “supporting cast” section of the previous sentence was purposeful. Furthermore, the hit rate of quarterback Joe Burrow was almost directly tied to the production of Chase, but we did see a couple of games where an additional member of the offense provided a GPP-worthy score in conjunction with Burrow and Chase. One of the most interesting angles in this game is to think through the likeliest path to an explosion, which likely comes via Ja’Marr Chase against a defensive scheme that we expect to utilize increased rates of man coverage. Of qualified pass-catchers, Chase ranked third in fantasy points per route run against man coverage in 2022, behind only Christian Watson and Jerry Jeudy. That setup provides a clear path to eruption from the Cincinnati pass offense.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
25.75) at

Colts (
20.75)

Over/Under 46.5

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Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>
  • Doug Pederson has a recent track record of aggression tailored to the game environment in which he finds himself, which is important to keep in mind when attacking this spot.
  • The Colts run defense is far better than their top-level metrics show from a season ago.
  • The Indianapolis backfield should be led by Deon Jackson in the absence of Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, but rookie fifth-round back Evan Hull is likely to mix in, to some extent.
  • The Colts offense is highly likely to go as Anthony Richardson goes, and he carries an extremely wide range of outcomes on any given week, albeit with an elevated rushing-induced floor.
  • Clear avenues of attack if looking to target this game environment.
  • Shane Steichen coaches his first game as the head coach for the Colts after spending the previous two seasons designing an offense for dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.
  • Deon Jackson represents an interesting decision point on this slate as a lead back priced near the minimum at $4,100.

HOW JACKSONVILLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Head coach Doug Pederson’s offensive tendencies proved to be subject to game environment in 2022 as passing volume ebbed and flowed relative to their situation. That said, they still held the 12th highest pass rate over expectation on the season. To highlight that assertion, let’s take a look at quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s pass volume in varying game environments from last season. The Jaguars played in 10 games with a game total over 47 points last season. In those 10 games, Lawrence averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game. In the seven games that had a game total under 47 points, Lawrence averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game. Furthermore, in games where the Jaguars were favored by three or more points with a game total under 47 points, Lawrence averaged just 27.33 pass attempts per game. That last split is important as it is exactly the situation the Jaguars find themselves in for Week 1 against the Colts (Jaguars -4.5, 45.0 game total). Jacksonville also invested their first three picks in the 2023 NFL Draft into a first-round right tackle, a second-round blocking tight end, and a third-round running back by selecting Anton Harrison, Brenton Strange, and Tank Bigsby, respectively. The old adage of “actions speak louder than words” is ever present with this team heading into the new season.

The above discussion begins to make more sense when digging into this team’s performance in the run game last year. The Jaguars managed a poor -1.44 expected points added (EPA) per rush from non-quarterback players in 2022, ranking just 21st in the league, while their EPA per dropback ranked fifth in the league. A more balanced offense as far as efficiency goes would do wonders for situational play calling, which is an area they largely struggled with a season ago. Regardless of the offseason hype surrounding rookie running back Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne proved that he should still be viewed as the leader of this backfield based on preseason utilization with the starters. That said, Bigsby should be involved in all situations, with there being a legitimate chance that he has already usurped the incumbent starter for work near the goal line. I expect closer to a 60/40 split in utilization between the two particularly considering Etienne somewhat quietly held a lower-than-perception 60.1 percent opportunity share in this offense a season ago, before the addition of Bigsby. The saving grace for Etienne last season was his 16 breakaway runs, which ranked fifth in the league. He’ll likely need to maintain that high per-touch efficiency considering a weak 7.8 percent target share in 2022 (31st in the league). By most metrics, the Colts rush defense was a top 10 unit in 2022 (sixth in defensive rush EPA, fifth in yards allowed per carry to non-quarterbacks, 13th in yards allowed before contact, fourth in yards allowed post contact), but an uncharacteristic performance in the red zone (25th-ranked 25.55 carries per rushing touchdown allowed) led to poor top-level numbers. As in, if you dig beyond the top-level numbers, this is not exactly a defense we’ll be looking to attack on the ground this year. That should make sense considering Gus Bradley as the defensive coordinator and the extreme talent they have in the front seven, but is worth emphasizing early in the season due to their poor performance in rushing metrics to the untrained eye.

We mentioned the extreme efficiency of this pass offense last season, which should invoke a feeling of instant intrigue after the offseason addition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who looked every bit the player that averaged 8.7 touchdowns per season during his first three years in the league and broke out in 2020 to the tune of 90 catches for 1,374 yards and nine scores. Basically, the team replaced the declining veteran Marvin Jones Jr. with a pass-catcher in his prime with a proven record as an alpha. All of that while retaining spry slot man Christian Kirk, established X-type wide receiver Zay Jones, and athletic tight end Evan Engram. There’s a lot to be excited about from this pass offense this season, the only problem for Week 1 is how much we trust Pederson to keep his foot on the gas if we see “rookie Richardson.”

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
20.5) at

Vikings (
25.0)

Over/Under 45.5

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Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>
  • The Vikings move from defensive prevent artist Ed Donatell to the ultra-aggressive Brian Flores at defensive coordinator.
  • Justin Jefferson should once again challenge for the league lead in targets and receptions while Alexander Mattison should finish in the top 12 in total volume at the running back position this season.
  • Minnesota should find some level of success here – the question then becomes, how will Tampa Bay respond to being punched in the mouth.
  • There is talent aplenty on both sides of this contest, but it is likely up to the Vikings to drive the game environment on offense with the Buccaneers much more likely to want to manage the game.

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The strength of this Tampa Bay roster resides on the defensive side of the ball. First-time offensive coordinator Dave Canales comes to the team from his previous post as an offensive assistant in Seattle, where he helped manufacture a balanced offense that also had some elite talent and a journeyman quarterback (similar to these Buccaneers). Seattle’s offense was built to maximize the talent on the field, which is a relative contrast to the previous Tampa Bay offense under Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich, which was more tailored to generating one-on-one matchups and asking their players to win. I expect more pre-snap motion and a more layered and diverse route tree from Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer, and Cade Otton this year. But the core of this team rests with their defense, meaning we should see game plans built around minimizing mistakes and controlling the football on offense to start the season.

Gone is Leonard Fournette and the 10th most weighted opportunities from a season ago (244). The team did little to address backfield depth this offseason behind de facto starter Rachaad White, bringing in veteran journeyman Chase Edmonds and signing electric rookie Sean Tucker as an undrafted free agent. Reports from Tampa Bay indicate it is likeliest to be Tucker who begins the season as the change of pace back behind White, the former of whom went undrafted due to concerns about his health rather than merit. That said, expect White to begin the season with a robust role out of the backfield, capable as both a rusher and pass-catcher. Starting quarterback Baker Mayfield has one of the highest check-down rates of any quarterback over the previous five seasons, which could serve well to bolster White’s weekly floor in full PPR formats. White will still need to find the end zone to carry any meaningful GPP-worthy ceiling on a weekly basis, which could be difficult to come by in this offense. The Buccaneers have one of the youngest offensive lines in the game currently and also have their most talented player up front changing positions (Tristan Wirfs) from right tackle to left tackle, meaning we could see this unit start slow this year.

Russell Gage was lost for the season after suffering a torn patellar tendon in joint practices in mid-August, leaving this pass-catching corps appearing to be extremely concentrated on paper amongst Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton. Undervalued but electric rookie wide receiver Trey Palmer should stick as a starter from 11-personnel and brings a downfield element to the offense that had largely been missing over the previous two seasons. Reports from camp indicated an offensive design tailored to generating space within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage, which gives this offense some level of intrigue beyond the talent on the roster. As in, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton with the ball in their hands in space is something we largely haven’t seen throughout their respective careers and something that could generate some upside even with Baker Mayfield under center.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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Titans (
19.25) at

Saints (
22.25)

Over/Under 41.5

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Key Matchups
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>
  • Derrick Henry averaged 23.33 carries per game in games that were decided by 10 points or less in 2022, with five games of 28 or more totes during the 2022 season.
  • The offseason acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins hints at a team more likely to tack on additional percentages to their pass rate considering an offensive line almost unanimously ranked in the bottom three of the league.
  • It will be interesting to see the run-pass breakdowns early in the year for the Titans considering the changes to their personnel.
  • The Saints begin the 2022 season without Alvin Kamara and likely without rookie third-round running back Kendre Miller.
  • Jamaal Williams is likely going to be extremely popular in Week 1. As a low per-touch upside back, in a difficult matchup against a team that bases its defensive identity on stopping the run, in a game with a low game total, I am more inclined to let the field chase a modest range of outcomes.
  • Could Taysom Hill be utilized as a heavy contributor on the ground behind (or alongside) Williams?
  • Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league over the previous two seasons in expected points added per drive (EPA/drive).

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Mike Vrabel has been the head coach for the Titans for the previous five seasons. During that time, we’ve seen the same smashmouth, in-your-face style football that we should expect heading into the 2023 season. That has meant an emphasis on stopping the run on defense through additional assets in the box, clogged lanes, and low blitz rates on defense and a methodical offense designed to march the field with sporadic shots deep that are built off of play action and the run. The biggest unknown surrounding this team heading into the regular season is their offensive line. No longer present are the staples along the line that we’ve grown comfortable seeing each week like Taylor Lewan, Rodger Saffold, Ben Jones, Nate Davis, and David Quessenberry. The new version of this offensive line is complete with a largely unproven cast that will be playing together for the first time this season. With an abridged preseason, a rookie first-round left guard, a former undrafted free agent center from 2020, and a former undrafted free agent right tackle from 2017 (who is making the move from right guard this season), the range of outcomes as far as performance up front to begin the season is extremely wide. In other words, this unit is almost unanimously ranked as a bottom three unit to start the year. That said, I still expect the Titans to try to win games in a similar fashion to what we’ve grown accustomed to during the previous five seasons under Vrabel, and the matchup with the Saints does not necessarily bode well in that regard.

We should also feel extremely comfortable in what to expect from Tennessee’s run game. Yes, the team drafted rookie Tyjae Spears in the third round in this year’s draft, but Derrick Henry is in the final year of his contract, and it is highly likely that he will no longer be with the team beyond the 2023 season – whether that is through retirement (likeliest, in my humble opinion) or free agency remains to be seen. From that perspective, I would think it’s highly likely that Spears was drafted as more of an understudy rather than someone expected to take a large portion of Henry’s work this coming year, leaving Henry as the de facto emphasis of the offense once more. The matchup on the ground is likely more difficult than the 2022 numbers would indicate after the Saints struggled through injuries and ineffective play along their defensive line and in their linebacker corps last year. The Saints allowed a middling 4.5 yards per carry in 2022 after a stifling 3.7 in 2021, the latter of which led the league that season. The most interesting part of that discussion is all of that could be thrown out the window considering previous tendencies under Vrabel. Derrick Henry averaged 23.33 carries per game in games that were decided by 10 points or less in 2022, with five games of 28 carries or more. As in, the team is highly likely to start games with an offensive design built around Henry, and they are equally as likely to continue to ride him for as long as they remain within striking distance.

The pass offense received a significant boost with the offseason acquisition of certified alpha wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, a move that will allow second-year wide receiver Treylon Burks to play a more natural route tree for his skillset as opposed to being forced into upside limiting routes typically asked of an X-type receiver. As such, I expect to see more six to nine routes (dig, corner, post, and go) from Burks in addition to more upside generating routes over the middle of the field, like slant and crossing routes. Expect Nuk to continue to operate in the heart of the route tree, with comebacks, curls, outs, and digs his bread and butter. That said, and based on camp footage and preseason tendencies, we should see sporadic usage in the seven to nine area of the route tree for Hopkins as well. Considering his contested catch prowess and elite hands, Hopkins’ presence on this offense is likely to be a significant boost to the efficiency metrics of the Tennessee pass offense. Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo received a lot of hype this offseason for his improvements as a blocker, which should allow the second-year tight end to develop into more of a complete player and see an increase to his modest 35.8 percent snap rate and 30.3 percent route participation from his rookie season. Tight end Trevon Wesco and wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine should soak up the majority of the remaining snaps as the team should be expected to play primarily from 11- and 12-personnel.

HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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49ers (
21.75) at

Steelers (
19.75)

Over/Under 41.5

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Key Matchups
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>
  • The 49ers offense enters the season fully healthy and looks to pick up where they left off torching scoreboards to end 2022.
  • Pittsburgh has invested a lot of draft capital into their offense in recent years and is looking to cash in on that investment this season.
  • The 49ers defense is likely to once again be one of the top units in the league, while the Steelers defense should also provide a formidable challenge for opponents.
  • Both teams feature second year quarterbacks whose main objective is to distribute the ball to their plethora of high quality skill players.
  • The excitement around the big names on offense could be quickly spoiled by distinct advantages both defenses have at the line of scrimmage.

HOW SAN FRANCISCO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan have built their team in a very specific way and that vision came full circle at the end of last season when Brock Purdy took over at QB and the 49ers led the NFL in scoring for the remainder of the year, scoring 30+ points in six of eight games before Purdy’s elbow injury in the conference championship game. The 49ers were tied for the slowest tempo in 2022 at 31 seconds per snap while also ranking 29th in the league in pass rate. The 49ers make up for their methodical offensive approach through elite efficiency and big play ability thanks to a meticulously designed offense and a murderer’s row of skill players. In the same way many of us have a “type” we are looking for in the dating realm, the 49ers have a “type” and they have loaded up on them – players who can make incredible things happen with the ball in their hands. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle keep defenses honest and Kyle Shanahan’s creativity in personnel packages, formations, and play design puts all of them in a position to make plays.

Looking to 2023, we shouldn’t expect much change for this well-oiled machine. They really have no reason to alter their tempo or approach. They mix up their play calls, use misdirection, and find ways to stress the defense both vertically and horizontally – forcing their opponent to defend every part of the field. The biggest obstacle facing them in their Week 1 matchup with the Steelers is the fact that Pittsburgh notoriously has a very good run defense (ranking top-5 by most metrics in 2022) and projects to be similarly strong this year. Likewise, the Pittsburgh pass rush is very strong and if this San Francisco offense has an Achilles heel this year it is likely going to be their offensive line. The obvious counter to that, however, is that the 49ers passing game is designed to get the ball out quickly to the playmakers and that approach can often neutralize an opposing pass rush. I would think that given Purdy’s injury to end last season, the 49ers will make a concerted effort to give him adequate protection and get the ball out quickly. 

This offense-defense matchup is, in my opinion, perhaps the most interesting X’s and O’s matchup of the opening week. Two seasons ago, the Steelers beat the Bills and Josh Allen in Week 1 by altering their approach and dropping a lot of players back into zone coverage, therefore flooding the secondary with defenders and allowing them to contain Allen’s rushing lanes. I wonder if Pittsburgh could employ a similar strategy in this matchup as a way to contain the 49ers elite run-after-catch weapons. The Steelers know that Brock Purdy is not an elite scrambling quarterback so if they throw off his timing by dropping defenders into coverage they may be able to completely knock the 49ers out of rhythm. The Steelers ranked 6th in the NFL in blitz percentage in 2022 so an approach like this would be slightly out of character for them, but it would make a ton of sense given the opponent and length of preparation time. The danger the Steelers would have if they are blitz-happy is they leave themselves vulnerable to one broken tackle leading to massive chunks of yards and explosive plays for the 49ers offense. It will be a really interesting chess match to watch and I’ll be glued to this one.

HOW PITTSBURGH WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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Cards (
15.5) at

WFT (
22.5)

Over/Under 38.0

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Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>
  • The Cardinals are a genuine threat for the title this year . . . of the worst organization in the league – complete dumpster fire. 
  • Arizona holds Houston’s first-round pick for the 2024 draft, meaning they have a path to two of the top five selections in the coming draft.
  • The Cardinals released veteran QB Colt McCoy and placed Kyler Murray on the physically unable to perform list, meaning they’ll start the season with either recent trade addition Joshua Dobbs or rookie Clayton Tune at quarterback.
  • The Commanders boast a legitimate top five defensive line and get the honor of teeing off against a bottom three offensive line. WAS D/ST is the best on-paper play at the position on the week, with the top consideration to not play them residing in the realm of leverage, salary allocation, and variance.
  • Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson should share the load in the backfield for the Commanders but each has a path to 100/2 in this spot.

HOW ARIZONA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Franchise quarterback Kyler Murray will begin the season on the league’s physically unable to perform (PUP) list as he works his way back from a torn ACL suffered in Week 14 of 2022. That means he will miss the first four weeks of the regular season, at minimum. The team also released veteran Colt McCoy during roster cutdowns, leaving them in the hands of either veteran journeyman Joshua Dobbs, who was added to the roster via trade with the Browns two weeks prior to the team’s opening game, or fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune for Week 1. New head coach Jonathan Gannon comes over from his previous position as defensive coordinator for the Eagles while new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing will get his first chance to call plays having never served as an OC at any level. All of this goes along with a roster-wide purge of players in the final year of their contract. The Cardinals ranked second in pace of play in 2022 at 27.0 seconds per play, a number we should expect to decrease considering the changes in coaching. One final consideration for the Cardinals this year is their draft day acquisition of the Texans’ first round draft pick in 2024, bringing with it the potential for Arizona to end the season with two top five picks in the coming year’s draft. All of that to say, we shouldn’t have high hopes for the Arizona offense (or defense) this year.

The Cardinals’ offensive line generated bottom five numbers in adjusted line yards a season ago and arguably got worse in the trenches, at least as far as run-blocking goes. Their interior offensive line is a consensus bottom two unit heading into the new season. While the addition of rookie Paris Johnson Jr. to play opposite D.J. Humphries at tackle will help in pass protection, only center Hjalte Froholdt graded out as an above average lineman in run blocking amongst the starting five last year. The Commanders are fresh off a season in which they allowed the 11th fewest rush yards per game at a respectable 4.4 yards per carry allowed, and that was during a season where they struggled with injuries and inconsistent play. Now fully healthy, Washington boasts a legitimate top five (maybe even top three) defensive line on paper. Finally, starting running back James Conner finished the 2022 season in the bottom half of the league in yards before contact, a trend we should expect to continue into 2023. Conner’s saving grace is his expected volume. He is fresh off a season where he averaged a 70.5 percent snap share (sixth), 71.7 percent team opportunity share (eighth), and 53.2 percent route participation (10th). Volume and pass game usage will be needed considering his well below average true yards per carry (4.2). The Cardinals also showed their hand in the backfield this offseason after releasing veteran Corey Clement at the roster cut deadline. This backfield should be Conner’s with a sprinkle of 2022 sixth-rounder Keaontay Ingram and potentially 2023 undrafted free agent Emari Demercado.

It’s difficult to analyze how the Cardinals will attempt to win through the air due to the multitude of unknowns surrounding their quarterback (and team) dynamics at the moment. While we don’t have a good idea of expected overall pass rates or pace of play, we do have a solid insight into the personnel we expect to be on the field. Veteran tight end Zach Ertz suffered a multiple-ligament knee injury late in the season last year but will begin the new year clear of the PUP list. That said, we shouldn’t expect a massive snap rate should he play in Week 1. That shoud leave significant early season work for second-year tight end Trey McBride. Preseason utilization with the first team indicates that veteran wide receiver Zach Pascal and rookie Michael Wilson are likely fighting for the starting “X” role on the perimeter and are likely to play over Rondale Moore from heavy sets (21- and 12-personnel). Moore quickly became one of the more overdrafted wide receivers in the middle of the best ball draft window. Marquise Brown should command a significant share of the targets in this offense but has had a declining team target market share and aDOT in each of the previous two seasons.

HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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Packers (
20.5) at

Bears (
21.5)

Over/Under 42.0

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Key Matchups
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>
  • Green Bay starts a new era and hopes to return to the playoffs with Jordan Love under center.
  • Chicago has surrounded Justin Fields with speed and weapons as they look to make a run in the wide-open NFC North.
  • Green Bay’s defense ended 2022 on a tear and will look to pick up where they left off against a Chicago team that worked hard to shore up their offensive line this offseason.
  • The excitement around the potential for both offenses in 2023 may have to be subdued for a week due to the matchups and expected game flow.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The departure of Aaron Rodgers brings the Packers a lot of questions as well as opportunities. For the first time in his career as a head coach, Matt LaFleur can fully implement his offensive vision and potentially change some things that Rodgers demanded. All eyes will be on Jordan Love, who looked very good in limited preseason work and has had a lot of positive buzz throughout the offseason. Luckily for Love, he has a very good supporting cast, including an above-average offensive line, two capable running backs, and a far superior receiving corps than the one they entered 2022 with.

The Packers offense should once again primarily revolve around their dynamic running back duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Those two combined for 25 to 30 touches on a weekly basis in 2022, and that seems like a relatively solid bet to continue this year – especially early in the season. The rest of the Packers personnel seems pretty set in stone, as second-year receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs operate as the top receiving options, and rookies Jayden Reed (WR) and Luke Musgrave (TE) appear to have locked up starting spots as well. Musgrave played almost every snap with the starters in the preseason and appears to have locked up a full-time role to start the year – a rare feat for a rookie tight end. Watson and Musgrave have explosive skill sets for their respective positions, while Doubs and Reed are very technically sound receivers with reliable hands. It really is a group that complements each other very well.

The Packers played at the slowest pace in the NFL in 2022 at 31 seconds per snap and were still slow-paced with the starters on the field in the preseason. While I do expect the pace to pick up for them as the season goes on and Love gets more comfortable early in the season, it seems likely they will continue a methodical approach. The Bears defense was atrocious in 2022, but they made several key additions during free agency and the draft, which should make them a much more formidable opponent this year. The Packers are likely to focus on efficiency and play methodically in their season opener, with a balanced approach that uses all of their young weapons and reliable running backs. The Bears blitzed on less than 20% of their defensive plays in 2022, but it will be interesting to see if they dial up more pressure in this matchup to see what Love is made of.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

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Raiders (
20.25) at

Broncos (
23.75)

Over/Under 44.0

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Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Mike Johnson >>
  • The Raiders have been adding healthy bodies to their offensive roster over the last month while Denver has steadily lost weapons before a single game has been played.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo has shown throughout his career that he can get the ball to his playmakers and lead a competitive team. 
  • Conservative play calling and matchups leave this game with a slim path to a high scoring affair.
  • Las Vegas should have a concentrated offensive attack while Denver is likely to spread the ball around.
  • Denver has a significant home field advantage early in the season due to altitude and heat.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Raiders offense in 2022 flowed primarily through Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, and we should expect a similar approach this year now that Jacobs has signed his 1-year deal to return to the team. Derek Carr is out and Jimmy Garoppolo is in at quarterback for the Raiders, but those two players have similar playing styles and Garoppolo should be well versed in the offense considering his past connection with Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels when both were in New England. Garoppolo is a prototypical “game manager” at quarterback, unlikely to make plays with his legs and hesitant to push the ball down the field, but he has been very successful at getting the ball to the right players and letting them go to work during his career, as that was basically the approach he had in San Francisco. Las Vegas ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in both pace of play and pass rate over expectation in 2022, trends that I would need to see changed, to believe in them in 2023.

From a personnel standpoint, the Raiders should have a pretty clear usage tree. Jacobs should be heavily featured in both the running game and with some targets out of the backfield. The one caveat I will add is that I wouldn’t be shocked if second year RB Zamir White mixes in a little more than usual in this game as Jacobs missed most of training camp due to a holdout, and they may look to ease him in a bit. For the passing game, Davante Adams led the league with a 32.6% target share in 2022, and it doesn’t seem like he has the necessary competition to push that number under 30 this year. After trading away Darren Waller, the Raiders selected tight end Michael Mayer in the second round of the draft and added wide receiver Jakobi Meyers and tight end Austin Hooper in free agency. Jacobs, Adams, and Meyers seem destined to be on the field for close to every snap. To fill out the skill players, it seems like a rotation of Mayer, Hooper, and Hunter Renfrow will mix and match based on formation, personnel packages, and game situations. Mayer should eventually take over the tight end position, but he and Hooper were rotating a lot in the preseason and there tends to be a steep learning curve for rookie tight ends. In any scenario, the Jacobs-Adams-Meyers trio is likely to account for upwards of 75% of the team’s targets + touches. 

The Broncos defense had a clear “path of least resistance” in 2022, as their pass defense was top 5 in the league while their run defense ranked in the bottom half. They have a young stud cornerback in Patrick Surtain, but that didn’t stop Davante Adams from dropping lines of 9-101-0 and 7-141-2 in his two matchups. The Raiders are on the road here and breaking in a new quarterback. The game plan will be very straightforward with a balanced approach and condensed usage. We may see a few new wrinkles from Josh McDaniels, but the Raiders should clearly be relying on their studs here and profile as a team that looks to methodically move the ball downfield by moving the chains rather than taking the top off of defenses, especially in this Week 1 road matchup.

HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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Dolphins (
24.0) at

Chargers (
27.0)

Over/Under 51.0

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Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Mike Johnson >>
  • This game features two teams who were near the top of the league in pass rate in 2022 and also have reasons why they may actually become more aggressive this year.
  • The Dolphins offense projects to be much more concentrated than the Chargers.
  • Using last year’s statistics, both defenses were most susceptible in the area that the other team is built the best to attack – Miamis running game and the Chargers passing game are in good spots here.
  • These teams had a lower-scoring matchup last season, but this still profiles as the premier Week 1 matchup in terms of shootout potential.

HOW Miami WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Despite all the rumors around running backs coming to Miami this summer, the team stuck with what they had and are already down a man as Jeff Wilson headed to the IR for the first four games of the season. This team was absolutely electric when Tua Tagavailoa played last season and he is fully healthy and ready to go for this Week 1 matchup. A cross-country road trip should be no problem for the Dolphins with plenty of rest time heading into the game. Head coach Mike McDaniel will be ready to go for this one and should enter the game with a mindset that they will need to put up a good amount of points to have a chance to win. McDaniel has an aggressive mindset for every game, but the fact that he knows his opponent can be explosive all but guarantees an aggressive game plan for Miami from the opening kickoff.

The Dolphins usage should be relatively concentrated. Jeff Wilson is out and rookie RB Devon Achane is still raw and doesn’t profile as a heavy usage guy, leaving Raheem Mostert in a featured role to start the year. Considering Moster’s likelihood of a featured role and the high target shares of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, it’s relatively easy to project that trio to combine for 70-80% of the Dolphins offense in Week 1. Mike McDaniel came from San Francisco and his offense is built in many ways upon the running game, which opens up everything else. The Chargers defense has been near the bottom of the league against the run the last couple of years and is basically built in an analytical way knowing that passing is the way of the league now, so they are OK with giving up some ground production. The issue for them is going to be giving up chunk plays to a well-designed scheme like the Dolphins bring to town. Again, the Dolphins scheme mirrors what Kyle Shanahan does with the 49ers – stretching the defense both vertically and horizontally and forcing them to defend the entire field. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are moveable chess pieces that will be featured all over the field, especially with Miami a little thin at running back. 

For all intents and purposes, we know what Miami is going to do – they are going to heavily feature three players and use misdirection and play action concepts to create confusion in the defense. They are going to be aggressive early in the game as their head coach is very sharp and looks to maximize points instead of just trying to hold serve. They are going to try to use the aggressiveness of a Chargers defense that blitzed over 30% of their plays last season against them. They are going to do all of these things in a variety of creative ways and, given that this is the first week of the season, will probably have some new wrinkles we haven’t seen yet. Given the injury issues of Tua Tagovailoa along with the pass rush and blitz tendencies of the Chargers, we should expect the passing game to focus on getting the ball out quickly especially early in the game.

HOW Los Angeles WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 10th 4:25pm Eastern

Eagles (
23.75) at

Patriots (
20.25)

Over/Under 44.0

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Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Mike Johnson >>
  • The Eagles offense is positioned to improve on what was already one of the top units in the league in 2022.
  • Usage in the Philadelphia backfield will be the top storyline for fantasy football as we look to project the team for future weeks.
  • New England has nowhere to go but up after a disastrous season and should benefit from stability and familiarity with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.
  • Expect the Patriots to use more two tight end sets this season and to rotate their backs more than they did in 2022.
  • Both defenses look primed to be very good this season and are loaded with talent as well as great coaching.
  • This game has paths to being a sneaky shootout that most people will overlook.

HOW Philadelphia WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Eagles offense was an absolute juggernaut in 2022, finishing in the top-3 in the league by almost any metric you can find. The Eagles may have the best offensive line in the league and have a gifted rushing quarterback, which led them to them having the NFL’s #1 ranked rushing offense by DVOA. Adding to that, they have two elite wide receivers and one of the more underrated tight ends in the league. Jalen Hurts has ascended to a truly elite level and I believe his best is still in front of him. For as impressive as the Eagles season was in 2022, most people probably still don’t understand how good it could have been. Several times during the season, the Eagles offense absolutely pummeled their opponent in the first half of the game to the point where they basically just played the second half with the goal of getting out in one piece. Realistically, the Eagles offense has the potential to reach another level entirely this year simply by being pushed more in what should be a more challenging schedule.

As we look at how the Eagles offense will operate, the largest unknown variable is their backfield. Last year, Miles Sanders was the clear lead back on early downs while Kenneth Gainwell filled in on passing downs and Boston Scott mixed in to give breathers and play in mop-up duty at the end of blowouts. This year’s personnel and training camp reports paint a potentially very different picture. Sanders is gone and the additions of Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift made it seem like the Eagles would once again feature a backfield with defined roles. The logical conclusion was that Penny would fill the Sanders role with Scott as his direct backup and Swift/Gainwell would fight it out for the passing down role. As things have played out, however, it appears possible that Swift and Gainwell are leading the backfield as we enter the season. I have felt that this was the best approach for the Eagles since they acquired Swift, but it is exciting to hear the reports that it actually might happen. If Swift/Gainwell operate in a 1a // 1b type of situation – with both being used both on early downs and passing situations – this Eagles offense becomes an absolute nightmare to deal with. Watching Eagles games last year, the one clear issue they had was their predictability based on personnel. Having backs who are multi-dimensional on the field at all times could be the skeleton key to this offense becoming truly unstoppable. Philadelphia operated at a brisk pace when games were close last season, and the emergence of Swift and Gainwell to lead the backfield should really let them put their foot on the gas now.
This matchup with the Patriots defense in Foxborough should be no pushover. Despite a disappointing season in the win column in 2022, the defense performed at a high level and operated as a top-10 unit against both the run and the pass. That unit returns almost everyone and New England used their first three picks on defense in the NFL Draft, including a first-round pick on highly touted cornerback Christian Gonzalez. While this is a tough matchup, this Eagles offense averaged 35 points per game during their three-game playoff run against the Giants, 49ers, and Chiefs. The Patriots notoriously play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, closing in on 50% of their defensive snaps, and the addition of Watson (who excels in man coverage) is a good sign that they won’t be changing that trend anytime soon. Watson had better be ready because AJ Brown is the type of player who can absolutely destroy man coverage. Likewise, heavy rates of man coverage leave a defense vulnerable against running quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts. I expect an aggressive game plan from the Eagles as they look to finish what they started last year. They are a team that can put up points on anyone and given their fast pace and high pass rate in 2022, along with the massive contract they gave Hurts this offseason, this is a team who is going to come out swinging.

HOW New England WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 10th 4:25pm Eastern

Rams (
20.5) at

Hawks (
26.0)

Over/Under 46.5

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Key Matchups
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Mike Johnson >>
  • So much of this game’s outlook will depend on the health and availability of Cooper Kupp.
  • Seattle’s offense was one of the bigger surprises of 2022 and looks to build on their playoff bid from a year ago.
  • The Seahawks may lean heavily on “12” personnel in this game due to their personnel situation and the lack of explosiveness on the other side of the ball.
  • Los Angeles will be hoping to keep this game low scoring and ugly to give themselves a chance in the fourth quarter.
  • Seattle is most likely to trust their defense and home field to pull out a win against an inferior on-paper opponent, albeit one that they will respect and who knows them very well.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Rams are an interesting case study of the effects of the “win now” mentality of sacrificing draft capital and long-term stability in the interest of winning a championship. While they were able to win their Super Bowl two years ago, they had a steep decline last year with a 5-12 record and are once again facing an uphill battle in 2023. The Rams have one of the youngest rosters in the NFL and their core offensive players are the aging Matthew Stafford (who has had retirement rumors following him for a few months) and 30-year-old Cooper Kupp, who recently visited a specialist for a second opinion on his hamstring injury that has had him out for a few weeks now.

Obviously, the season is a blank slate, but it’s hard to be very optimistic about the Rams entering this year. Kupp will almost certainly miss this game, but we at least have a sample from the end of last season to see how they will operate without him, as Kupp also missed the last eight games of 2022. During that stretch, the Rams went 2-6 and struggled to find their way offensively, scoring more than 20 points only twice. During the last few weeks of the season, Cam Akers became the focal point of the offense as he averaged over 23 opportunities per game in the last three weeks and played 100% of the snaps in their last game of the season. The buzz in training camp has been that second year running back Kyren Williams will share the load this year by taking a lot of passing game work and maybe mixing in for some early down snaps as well. That usage breakdown will be one of the more interesting storylines to watch early in the year for the Rams to learn how they may approach the season.

Assuming Kupp misses this game, which feels like a near certainty at this point, the Rams are likely to approach the game with a balanced and conservative offensive approach. Given the timing of this Week 1 matchup and the familiarity of their opponent in Seattle, we may see a few gimmicky plays or downfield shots looking to exploit known defensive tendencies, but the Rams best chance of winning this game is not getting into a shootout. Last year without Kupp, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee became the top options in a similarly conservative offense. This year, it appears that rookie Puka Nacua and second year diminutive receiver Tutu Atwell will fill the second and third wide receiver roles and both should be busy with Kupp out. Veteran Ben Skowronek should also get some time, although it definitely sounds like his role will be scaled back from what we saw in 2022, as the Rams play the long game by giving reps to the young guys. 

Overall, what we are looking at is a “keep it close until the fourth quarter and hope things break right” approach. Akers should get plenty of touches, although his efficiency behind an offensive line that once again projects to be one of the worst in the league has to be in question. Atwell and Williams seem likely to be mixed in for some screens and designed touches in the short areas of the field as creative extensions of the running game. Meanwhile, Higbee, Jefferson, and Nacua are likely the main targets in the intermediate areas of the field. Seattle’s notorious Cover-3 defense along with the conservative approach of the Rams will likely keep them from taking many downfield shots, but when they do it will almost certainly be to Jefferson.

HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 10th 8:20pm Eastern

Cowboys (
24.75) at

Giants (
21.25)

Over/Under 46.0

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Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night’s game should be an interesting one as the perpetually underachieving Cowboys visit one of last year’s surprise teams in the Giants. Both team’s offenses look more interesting on paper (at least for DFS purposes), with the Cowboys getting rid of Ezekiel Elliott and adding Brandin Cooks, while the Giants picked up Darren Waller. That means a lot of offensive weapons for us to choose from in this one. The game currently is sitting at a 45.5 total with Dallas favored by 3.5, so, essentially a coin flip if it were a neutral field (home field advantage is worth about a field goal in Vegas). 

Dallas

The backfield has been handed to Tony Pollard with Zeke off to New England, thrilling fantasy fans who have wanted this for years. We also know that Dallas, for whatever inexplicable reason, has historically loved the run game (but more on this in a bit). The question is if Pollard is going to be treated like a bell cow. We don’t have much of a record of how the Cowboys have used Pollard without Zeke, as there have only been three games with Zeke out and Pollard in, but historically Dallas has shied away from giving Pollard 20+ carries (only once in his career). He has some passing game role to help make up for that, though. I think a reasonable estimate for Pollard is around 14-16 carries with another 3-6 targets, so he does get into the 20 touch range, but not full-on bell cow status. Behind Pollard are Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn. Dowdle is listed first in the depth chart but we know that doesn’t necessarily mean much. I don’t know who the RB2 is here, but personally, I’m not going to play much of either and will have a “max 1” rule between them. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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Let’s talk about the passing game. As noted before, Dallas is viewed as a run-first team, but with a more dynamic receiving back in Pollard as their primary back, the signing of Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup being fully healthy, and with Mike McCarthy calling offensive plays this year, it sure looks like this team is built to pass more. We’ll see if my hunch here is right or not. CeeDee Lamb is obviously the primary receiver on the team, having shown last season he’s more than just a floor guy (to my personal dismay) and overall really freaking out and establishing himself as one of the league’s premier pass catchers (his target share also spiked last season up to nearly 30% with Amari Cooper’s departure). Dallas has brought in more talent around Lamb, so we’ll see if that 30% mark holds up . . . but I suspect even if it doesn’t, it’ll be close to that. The dude is elite. And, no knock on Lamb, but I’m actually excited to play Cooks and Gallup in this one because the Giants are trotting out two rookie cornerbacks on the perimeter that Cooks, especially, stands a good chance of being able to exploit (note here: these rookies include a 1st rounder, and we don’t know how the Giants will deploy them. If they stick to their sides, Dallas can line their guys up how they want, but if they decide to stick the 1st rounder on Cooks, Gallup could well end up with the easier matchup). Their prices are pretty close so overall I want more Cooks, but I intend to be overweight on both. At tight end, we have “just a guy” Jake Ferguson taking over for departed Dalton Schultz. Ferguson isn’t really any sort of special talent, but he’ll be on the field plenty and Dak Prescott has historically created reasonable production for his tight ends. At $4,800, I don’t love the play, but you’re just banking on the “some random tight end always seems to score in Showdown” dynamic. He’s “fine.” The Cowboys tend to lean heavily on their main guys, so I don’t think we should expect to see much in the way of rotational receivers in this game, probably a smidge of Jalen Tolbert here and there, maybe a bit of KaVontae Turpin or Jalen Brooks, a little bit of Peyton Hendershot at tight end . . . those guys are all thin MME punt options.

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Kickoff Monday, Sep 11th 8:15pm Eastern

Bills (
24.0) at

Jets (
21.5)

Over/Under 45.5

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Key Matchups
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 1 wraps up with the Bills visiting the Jets for a 45.5 total game with Buffalo favored by two. Buffalo looks largely the same as last year while the Jets, of course, do not. Aaron Rodgers is in town at QB (along with a couple of his buddies at wide receiver) and Dalvin Cook has joined the team at running back. This should be a fun game as the new-look Jets feel ready to really contend while the Bills have been a top team for several years. Both teams also boast very strong defenses, keeping the scoring projection down, but there are of course a lot of different ways we could see this one play out.

Buffalo

In the Buffalo run game, Devin Singletary has left town, leaving a backfield of James Cook, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray. Cook should be the lead back, but remember how Buffalo has operated for years now when “lead back” really meant “the 1A in a committee.” And of course, Josh Allen himself has been the goal line back, making it quite rare for a Buffalo RB to put up scores that we need in DFS (last year Singletary topped out at 18 carries, reached the 100 yard mark once, and averaged just 10 carries per game). If this game were on a full slate I would just ignore the RBs completely . . . that’s not how I personally play Showdown, but it’s a spot I’m personally going to be underweight on, and hope that Buffalo’s historical usage of running backs continues. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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The passing game is where Buffalo gets fun. Josh Allen, Stef Diggs, Gabe Davis (new and improved with no lingering ankle injury), rookie Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox . . . it’s a fun group of players. Diggs is the alpha here and it’s worth noting that the Jets best corner, Sauce Gardner, rarely shadowed last season. Diggs should continue to command a large market share of targets (though he’ll probably also still complain about wanting the ball more). Gabe Davis is something of a wild card. He had a disappointing season last year but was also playing through a nagging ankle injury. At full health, he should be in for better things, but the matchup here is pretty nightmarish for him. Dalton Kincaid seems likely to be used primarily as a wide receiver which is good for him and good for Dawson Knox, but less good for the Bills WR3 types. Speaking of the WR3 types, that’s some combination of Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, and Trent Sherfield. They are, of course, facing one of the NFL’s premier passing defenses in a strength-on-strength matchup that should be extremely interesting to watch from a football perspective and also extremely interesting to build lineups around as there are a lot of ways this game could play out. Diggs is the most attractive target here as the best receiver on the team (duh) but also in a role in which the Bills should be able to mostly keep him away from Gardner. That doesn’t create an easy matchup for him as the rest of the Jets corners are no slouches, but I’ll take Diggs against just about anybody, and having a (slightly) easier matchup is a mark in his favor. Davis, on the other hand, is likely to be smothered by Gardner for much of the game, leaving him in a very boom/bust role. Kincaid is something of an enigma as he’s a tight end who is likely to be utilized as a wide receiver, and thus a big role for him will primarily come at the expense of Shakir and the other WR3s. I’d consider rules that limit the pairing of Kincaid with Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield. Finally, it’s possible we could see Knox going a bit overlooked here depending on how the field views things. If people think “Oh, Kincaid is the new TE1,” that could suppress Knox’s ownership, but my expectation is that we see Knox on the field plenty with Kincaid lined up as a wideout. 

New York

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