49ers (

26.75) at
Chiefs (

27.75)

The Matchup ::

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• Shanahan offenses have faced Spagnuolo defenses on six occasions, winning 5 of 6 (4 straight) and scoring 16 (Schaub), 16 (McNabb), 17 (Grossman), 40 (RG3), 24 (Ryan), and 31 (Beathard)
• The target leader in those six games averaged 9.2 targets and 4 of the 6 surpassed 100 yards receiving
• Kittle has received at least 7 targets in 10 of 18 games, and when the opponent scores more than just 20 points, he has target totals of 8, 8, 17, 8, 7
• Kansas City has scored below 23 points just once all season
• The 2019 Chiefs faced the 2nd most TE targets in the NFL, allowing the 4th most receptions and 5th most yards to the position
• The team’s rush attempts (+ game leader) in those six Shanny vs Spags matchups were 18 (13), 15 (7), 35 (19), 34 (28), 21 (12), & 28 (17)
• Raheem Mostert’s attempt totals since Week 13: 19, 10, 14, 11, 10, 12, 29 (11 total TDs)
• The 2019 Chiefs have allowed the 8th most RB rushing yards on just the 16th most attempts faced
• Against teams in the bottom-10 of the league in defensive rush efficiency (KC is 29th), SF has scored 41, 31, 9, 51, 24, 37, 26, & 37
• In those eight games, SF’s rushing yardage totals were 259, 275, 137, 232, 87, 112, 128, & 285
• Those 8 games produced 12 games of double-digit DK points from RBs, with Mostert leading the backfield 4 times and scoring double-digits 5 times
• Of Spagnuolo’s 10 career defenses, the 2019 Chiefs rank 2nd in total takeaways (#10 in NFL) and 2nd in Interceptions (#5 in NFL)
• Garoppolo has thrown at least 1 interception in 11 of 18 games, and has multiple turnovers in 5 of 18 games
• Green Bay was the only top-10 pass efficiency defense (of 5 teams) to not force a Garoppolo turnover
• Kansas City ranks 6th in pass efficiency defense
• Andy Reid is 6-3 vs Kyle Shanahan offenses/teams, winning all 3 matchups as KC’s HC
• Reid’s teams have allowed 28 and 27 points to non-WAS Shanahan offenses, while his own team scored 38 in his only matchup with a Saleh-coordinated defenses (2018)
• Mahomes played just 4 full games vs teams inside the top 20 of pass efficiency defense, scoring 33 (BAL without Smith/Peters), 23 (NE), 23 (DEN), & 26 (CHI)
• SF is ranked 2nd in pass efficiency defense
• When facing offenses ranked in the top half of the NFL for efficiency, SF has allowed 25, 27, 26, 8, 20, 46, 29, 31, 21, 10, & 20 points
• KC ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency
• SF has been torched by #1 WRs in the last 6 weeks, allowing them to average 9.4 rec (13.8 targets) for 120.8 yards, 0.8 TDs in 5 of 6 games, and allowing a deep TD to Stefon Diggs in their best game of this stretch
• After failing to clear 5 targets in three straight games, Tyreek Hill hit TEN with 5 rec (7 targets) for 67 yards and 2 TDs, his 3rd multiple TD game of the 12 full games he played this season
• In the 2018 matchup, Hill only went for 2 rec, 51 yds on 5 targets
• McCaffrey, Drake, & Jones are the only three RBs to top 20 DK points vs SF this year
• In Damien Williams’ last 6 full games, his attempt (& target) totals read: 12 (2) // 19 (5) // 16 (3) // 12 (7) // 12 (6) // 17 (6)
• 6 of Williams’s 8 TDs over that 6-game stretch have come in the Red Zone, and 6 of his 11 TDs on the season have come inside the Green Zone, where he only trails Kelce in touches this season
• Only 3 teams allowed fewer rushing TDs to RBs in 2019 than SF
• In the last three games, Travis Kelce has had his 2 worst fantasy games of the season and his best fantasy game of the season
• In these last 3 games, Kelce received below 8 targets twice, something he had only done twice before all season
• SF faced just four top fantasy TEs in 2019, allowing 50yds, TD to Andrews, 64yds, 2 TD to Cook (in just 1Q), 20yds to Hooper, and 104yds to Higbee
• In Chris Raybon’s 2008-2015 injury study, 86 TEs with a knee injury designation saw a 15.4% drop in PPR production and 11.4% drop in targets
• Travis Kelce is probable with a knee injury and has missed some practices for maintenance of this injury

Xandamere’s Showdown Slant ::

This season feels like it went by so quickly, but here we are at the Super Bowl. As an aside, in the offseason, I’ll be going through all of the Showdown slates from this season to look for trends compared to last year, see how things have changed (or stayed the same), and try to plan for next season. But, before we get there, we have one last chance to take down a big tournament.

This is the biggest Showdown slate of the year, so it bears repeating some earlier thoughts. There are basically two ways to approach Showdown. Firstly, you can build rosters around what you think is most likely to happen and thus maximize your chances of ending up in first place. Secondly, you can build rosters around what might happen if the game goes off the rails in a strange way, which lowers your chance of winning but boosts your odds of getting a solo win or a small split if your scenario does play out. This is, of course, a personal choice, but I’ll point out that last year’s Super Bowl resulted in an unlikely solo win using a lineup with a receiver captain without their quarterback. 

With that, let’s go through some thoughts on the Showdown and on some possible correlations to consider:

• A game total of 54.5 when the two teams have the overall 2nd ranked defense (SF) and a modest run defense but 6th-ranked pass defense by DVOA (KC) feels aggressive to me.
• Tevin Coleman is expected to play, which means the 49ers running back situation is, as usual this season, confusing. Raheem Mostert had an absolutely massive game in the championship, but before Coleman was injured, they were splitting carries about 50/50. One lesson from this season is that some people keep wanting to think that the 49ers backfield is going to result in a lead back situation and they know who that back is, and those people have been proven wrong again and again. It’s possible that Mostert’s massive performance earns him lead back duties here, but everything we’ve seen from the 49ers this season indicates it’s going to be a split. Personally I want to be underweight the field on Mostert and overweight on Coleman. 
• On that note, after Tevin Coleman left the championship game, I was expecting Matt Breida (who was active and not on the injury report) to take up the split role. That didn’t happen as Breida only got 1 touch while Mostert saw a massive workload. That was basically the perfect opportunity for Breida to get involved and he didn’t, which makes it seem unlikely for him to see a significant workload this week. 
• George Kittle at $8,400 with the best matchup of the SF receivers is far, far too cheap. He’s had a couple of quiet games that the 49ers defense largely controlled and thus they didn’t need to pass, but against KC, it seems likely that the 49ers will need more of an aerial game here. Kittle is normally a $9k – $10k player in Showdown, so it’s a big discount; but you can also expect him to be heavily owned.
• Jimmy G is similarly cheap for similar reasons. His matchup is tougher against what is an overall very strong pass defense, but we always like quarterbacks in Showdown and $8k is one of the cheapest quarterbacks we’ve seen the entire season. 
• On the other side, Patrick Mahomes is $12.6k and his two top receivers are $11k for Tyreek and $9,600 for Kelce in a very, very challenging matchup. Mahomes has the highest raw projection on the slate but these premium prices are somewhat difficult to swallow. This is the leverage spot where you have to decide if you’re going for what’s likeliest to happen or if you’re comfortable playing contrarian, as all of the core 4 KC guys will be highly owned and their prices will largely dictate roster construction. 
• Damien Williams has a tough matchup but $9,800 is a fair price for a running back who has played almost every snap in the last couple of games and who also has a solid pass game role. 
• Speaking of contrarian play, if you want to use a receiver captain without their quarterback (without getting too crazy), Deebo Samuel gets a couple carries per game and a rushing touchdown could lead to him being the optimal captain without dragging Jimmy G along with them. 
• Emmanuel Sanders has gotten down to a shockingly cheap price at just $5,200. He’s been quiet in the playoffs (and in general since joining the 49ers), but he also has 2 massive ceiling games, which is just what you want to go after in tournaments.
• Down in the cheap range, don’t overlook guys who are on the field a lot. Blake Bell consistently plays about half the snaps. Kyle Juszczyk is primarily a blocker but has also been a capable receiver when called upon and is on the field a ton. A lot of attention goes to Mecole Hardman, who has ruined more than 1 Showdown for me this year with a long touchdown, but don’t overlook DeMarcus Robinson, who has been on the field a lot more over the course of the season (worth noting here that Hardman very slightly outsnapped Robinson in the AFC Championship game, so perhaps the workload split is changing here in the playoffs, but ownership is also likely going to account for that).
• Defenses are likely to go low owned here with a game total over 54, but don’t sleep on them. Both of these defenses are good plays. The 49ers boast the better overall defense but the tougher matchup, while the Chiefs’ D gets to play against Jimmy G, who threw 14 picks over the course of the season.

Some groups to consider (note here that these groups focus on building positive correlations; if you’re trying to play very contrarian, you probably want to ignore these):

• At most 1 kicker
• At most 1 defense
• Pair captain QBs with at least 2 receivers
• Pair captain receivers with their QB
• At most 1 of Mostert and Coleman
• At most 2 of Kittle, Deebo, and Sanders
• At most 1 of Robinson and Hardman