Sunday, Feb 7th — Late
Bye Week:
49ers
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Chiefs
Colts
Cowboys
Dolphins
Eagles
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings
Washington

Week 16 Player Grid

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This Player Grid will hold little value for you without first reading this.

Note: Players in a given tier are not listed in any particular order.

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Player Grid, Live ::

TodFromPa will be talking through the Player Grid live at 8 PM!

Here’s the call-in number :: (646) 668-8928 (taking questions from 9 on!)

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FantasyDraft pricing spreadsheet :: DK vs FDraft pricing comparison on all quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. The first column in the spreadsheet shows the drop or rise in salary cap hit for each player (pluses are good; minuses are bad; these are also color-coded accordingly). (Note: ignore the big gap on SNF players, obviously, as the spreadsheet reads their DK cap hit as 0%.)

:: Hammer the edge on FantasyDraft Here

Sunday Morning Update ::

CubsFan texted to ask my thoughts on Derrick Henry trending toward missing this game (via Schefter), and one of the things I mentioned in my response was that Lewis is really not a great fit for this run scheme. As such, it’s interesting to note that about a month ago, the Titans picked up RB/FB Khari Blasingame — who at 6’0″, 233 pounds is a much more Henry-like back. The knock on Khari has been his strictly north-south running style, but he does have some explosiveness to go with his size, and he has also shown some pass-catching chops (including a really nice grab a couple weeks ago).

This may very well come back to bite me, but with the field likely to overreact here — loading up on Lewis — I plan to give him just a small amount of attention myself, while also giving Khari a small amount of attention. This is not a great matchup, and Lewis has been ineffective for two seasons with this team even when he does see touches — while Khari has a solid shot at filling in for at least some level of work (and possibly a decent chunk of the Henry role), with Tennessee already having gotten him on the field for 27 snaps across the last two weeks (while dropping three targets into his lap — good for two catches and 47 yards). To sum up my thoughts here: there is a definite possibility that Dion Lewis works as an 18+ touch back, and there is a possibility that he is effective in this role; but I’m going to make a bet this week on my own rosters that DeAndre Washington ends up with touches at or above the same level as Lewis; and I’ll also assume that the typical “new news” scramble will lead to Lewis carrying higher ownership between the two. With all that, I want to bet on the player who has looked good when given opportunities, and who will be taking on a softer run game matchup. There are obviously cases to be made for going to Lewis instead, so of course: take these thoughts from me as just a piece of the puzzle. I also like the idea of getting at least a small amount of Khari action in play, as he could very realistically find himself with 12+ touches — and a touchdown on top of a workload like that could make him a nice tourney pivot.

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TIER 1

Quarterback

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  • Lamar Jackson :: The Browns rank 28th in DVOA against the run and are allowing 4.8 yards per carry to enemy running backs, while being hit with the sixth highest opponent rush play rate in the league. Lamar has posted stellar numbers on 25 or fewer pass attempts across his last eight starts, and this is another spot where it’s likely he does his damage through the air on limited volume while lighting up the opponent on the ground. As noted in this week’s Angles Pod :: 30 points will have a lot of value this week, and Lamar has one of the clearest paths to that mark.

Running Back

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  • Joe Mixon + :: The likeliest scenario this week probably doesn’t quite have Mixon on a true ceiling game in this inconsistent offense; but his chances of whiffing are low (he has 17+ DK/FDraft points in six of his last seven games; 15+ FanDuel points; touch counts of 21 // 32 // 16 // 18 // 23 // 26 // 28), and if he hits he can be among the highest point-per-dollar plays on the slate. Behind Mixon, Tyler Boyd is interesting as a guy with clear paths to upside and a non-awful floor, while John Ross is a guy I expect to mix in lightly — as he’s unlikely to hit, but he’s very valuable on the off chance he does. I’ll likely have a heavy dose of Mixon ownership this week with a bit of Boyd/Ross hedge action, and with a bit of Albert Wilson and Patrick Laird brought back from the other side.

Wide Receiver

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  • Michael Thomas :: A true “must-have” score is obviously unlikely at his elevated price, but his raw ceiling is near the top of the slate — and he can become especially valuable if you are able to pair him with a couple cheaper pieces (or with a cheaper stack) that posts strong raw production. It’s tough for him to be a true centerpiece at his price, but I’ll be looking for opportunities to play him this week.

Tight End

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  • Zach Ertz + :: The leader through the air for the Eagles is likeliest to be Zach Ertz, who has target counts in his last five games of 11 // 14 // 6 // 13 // 10. The Cowboys have faced the seventh most tight end targets and allowed the third most tight end receptions (tied with the Cardinals), while giving up the eighth most tight end yards. Ertz sets up as a rock-solid floor/ceiling bet who will require an outlier to whiff. I expect to have somewhat heavy Ertz exposure this week, and I’ll likely hedge with a bit of Greg Ward and maybe even a bit of Dallas Goedert. Given the way the matchup tilts, Ward sees a slight dip in expectations while the tight ends see a slight rise, though this passing attack is concentrated enough at the moment that Ward remains very much in the mix.

DST

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  • Steelers :: The Steelers rank third in DVOA on defense, fourth in yards allowed, and seventh in points allowed (while ranking first in sacks and second in turnovers forced), while the Jets rank 32nd in DVOA on offense, 31st in yards gained, and 28th in points scored (while ranking 30th in adjusted sack rate and giving the ball away more often than all but eight other teams). It would be nice if this game were being played in Pittsburgh, but this sets up as a strong floor/ceiling play regardless.

TIER 2

Running Back

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  • Christian McCaffrey :: As you’ll see in Tier 3 :: my “wide receiver exposure” this week is primarily centered around A) Michael Thomas, B) a few key stacks, and C) a few hedge bets off other players I like — and given that there is so much uncertainty at wide receiver (and that Thomas is a guy I’ll be looking to fit on at least 1/3 of my rosters), I’ll probably end up with less CMC exposure this week. But that doesn’t change the fact that he is one of the most lock-and-load options in the NFL, with his “disappointing games” (outside of matchups with the Bucs) representing elite outputs for most other players. As always: he’s a play-him-if-you-can-comfortably-fit-him piece.

Wide Receiver

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  • Keenan Allen :: Keenan is going to need outlier production in order to “help you win a tourney,” but on a week like this, there is also a lot of value in rock-solid production (even if you have to pay a little extra to get there). Keenan has recent target counts of 11 // 12 // 6 // 6 // 10, and he has gone for 68 or more yards in five consecutive games. The Raiders boost aDOT by 13.8% (creating opportunity for Keenan to hit for more yardage than he typically does), and his five touchdowns on the year point to the additional upside he possesses. A ceiling game from Keenan should be considered a bonus, but he’s a strong bet for solid production this week.

TIER 3

Running Back

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  • DeAndre Washington :: This is not a great spot for the Oakland offense, but Washington provides cheap access to what should be 16 to 22 touches (with a few targets mixed in), and there’s plenty of value in that. He isn’t a must-play as part of a split backfield on a road underdog; but most paths have him producing above his price level, and there is certainly visible ceiling in this run-centric offense. As explored in this week’s Angles Pod :: there probably won’t be many top-end scores available this week, and there are several top-end scores that are “fairly likely to hit” and require you to pay up to get them. This sends extra value Washington’s way, as he might be able to help you win a tourney even without elite production, as a solid price-considered game paired with elite production from higher-priced pieces could be enough to get things done.
  • Melvin Gordon :: The Chargers are a run-leaning offense as sturdy home favorites — and while Gordon is still sharing work with Austin Ekeler, he’s a solid bet to see 19 to 23 touches this week, and only 14 players have more carries in the red zone than Gordon in spite of his late start to the year. Gordon is likeliest to provide ceiling through touchdowns, but the floor is decent, and the touchdown opportunities are there.
  • Mark Ingram :: Ingram is nearly impossible to place at the center of your builds, as his production is so reliant on touchdowns, and touchdowns are the most unreliable element in DFS. When he misses, he can miss hard; but when he hits, he can rise to the top of the slate — and on a week that is likely to yield only a handful of “top of the slate” scores, I’ll be mixing in a few “Ingram hedge bets” against my Lamar Jackson exposure: hoping he adds his 15th (and 16th?) touchdown on the year.
  • Chris Carson :: The matchup on the ground is a bit below-average for Carson, but with Rashaad Penny out and the Seahawks favored by 9.5, he should be in line for a heavy workload (seven games this year of 24+ touches), with yardage likely to follow, and with touchdown opportunities available. His floor is lower than his salary supports, but he certainly has paths toward a game that would justify the price.
  • Nick Chubb :: The drop in price for Chubb on DraftKings makes him interesting to me as a fringe play in tourneys, as it’s not a stretch to say that Chubb is the best per-carry back in the league (first in the NFL in rushing yards; first in yards per carry among backs averaging at least 10 carries per game), and this matchup isn’t all that daunting on the ground, with the Ravens allowing over 4.5 yards per carry to enemy backs. Volume and scoring opportunities are the concerns here; but while that keeps the floor low, the ceiling remains high enough to think about this week.
  • Marlon Mack :: Mack has only two games this year above 21 carries, but he also enters the best matchup a running back can have (Carolina ranks 32nd in DVOA and has given up the second most running back rushing yards and the most running back touchdowns, on 5.32 yards allowed per carry), and he plays on a team that runs the ball at the sixth highest rate in the league. He’s a true yardage-and-touchdown back; but the matchup sets up great for yardage and touchdowns.
  • Devonta Freeman :: The Jaguars have allowed the third most rushing yards, the ninth most receiving yards, and the third most touchdowns to the running back position. Running backs are averaging an incredible 5.3 yards per carry in this matchup, while Freeman played 79% of the Falcons’ snaps last week. The Falcons are the pass-heaviest team in football this year, and they still have a poor offensive line for Freeman to work behind; but 17+ touches are likely in this spot, and Freeman will have some paths to upside available on this work.

Wide Receiver

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  • Mike Williams :: Williams has target counts of only 5 // 7 // 3 // 9 in his last four games, but he has 45+ yards in 12 straight, 69+ yards in seven of those games, his first two touchdowns of the year in his last two games, and the first two 100-yard games of his career in his last six. His largely-limited targets give him a lower floor than he has shown, but he also has a higher ceiling than he has shown. Williams leads the NFL in average depth of target, and the Raiders boost aDOT by 13.8%.
  • D.J. Chark :: I’ll have more exposure to my stacks and hedge bets than I’ll have to Chark, but on a week in which very few elite scores are likely to come available, Chark — who has shown an ability to break slates open — should be kept in the mix. The likeliest scenario (against a Falcons team that gives up a huge catch rate, but that does so by forcing opponents to throw the ball a bit shorter) has Atlanta tilting a bit more run-heavy when they have the ball and Chark failing to post a huge game on the other side. But there are alternate pathways in which Chark moves toward his ceiling — and if he gets there, he could prove necessary this week. (I’ll likely have at least one Chark build among my 12 rosters this week — and I won’t be surprised if I mix in one Chris Conley roster as well.)

Tight End

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  • Jacob Hollister :: As noted in this week’s NFL Edge: the Cardinals are now up to a “how is this possible?” 15 touchdowns allowed to tight ends, alongside 1023 yards — with the Cardinals essentially turning the average tight end they face into 2011 Gronk, who posted a tight end record 17 touchdowns, alongside 1327 yards. As we know: Hollister tends to be stuck in the short areas of the field — requiring him to hit a touchdown in order to really pay off (and making him slightly less than a lock-and-load play). But touchdown chances are high in this spot, and he should be able to land eight to 10 DK points (six to eight FD points) even if he “misses.”

DST

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  • Ravens :: There aren’t many upside DST scores you can actually target outside of the top pricing tier — so while I may end up with a little bit of “cheap defense exposure” to open up a few things in other spots on my rosters, the only defenses I’ll be actively looking to roster are the Steelers and (to mix things up a bit) the Ravens. We know how mistake-prone the Browns are and how good the Ravens are. This is also a good spot for the Ravens to exact revenge after the Browns embarrassed them earlier this year.

Stacks

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  • Giants // Redskins Upside Pieces :: The “likeliest outcome” for this game has all three of Saquon Barkley // Darius Slayton // Terry McLaurin falling shy of what you’re ultimately hunting for at their respective price tags; but all three are also solid bets for at least decent production, and all three have visible upside (with clear — if slim — paths toward difference-making production). This will keep each in the fringe mix for my thoughts as I cycle through my builds, and I expect to have at least a couple Slayton rosters, with McLaurin coming back on one.
  • Cowboys Passing Stack :: If you don’t typically listen to the full Angles podcast, I encourage you to flip to the one-hour, six-minute mark in this week’s pod, where I walk through my thoughts on this spot in more depth; but basically, this passing attack — injury concerns and all — has one of the clearer paths to topping the slate, and I’ll be featuring pieces from this Cowboys offense across a number of my builds. There are not a lot of 25- to 30-point games available on this week’s slate, and if things go well for the Cowboys, they could produce two or even three of these games at once. I’ll have probably four or five Amari Cooper rosters across my 12 builds, a couple Michael Gallup rosters, and a couple Dak Prescott rosters. I’ll probably also toss in one or two Carson Wentz rosters to play things the other way, while hedging with a couple bets on Ezekiel Elliott. When it’s all said and done, a decent chunk of my exposure this week will likely come from this game.

Bottom-Up Build ::

Listening to the deep dive in the Angles Pod is always recommended; but if you’re short on time, here is this week’s Bottom-Up Build:

Will Grier
DeAndre Washington
Boston Scott
Joe Mixon
Hunter Renfrow
Greg Ward
Mike Williams
Jacob Hollister
Steelers

:: $10.2k remains

Hopefully this gives you a great opportunity to compare your thoughts against my own.

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!