Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

Rinse. Repeat. 

Either of these words on their own or said together applies to you right now. 

The OWS community is just getting going, with the Binks channel feeling like a hamster running on a wheel lately with all the activity flowing in. If you have been fortunate to find your profit over the past month, then you’re looking to continue to repeat. If you haven’t, let’s rinse Week 8 right off and get to Week 9.

No matter your results, it’s always your process that will need examining. We allude to it at OWS frequently, but may not say it as much as we should…you (we) need to separate ourselves from outcomes. We know how much skill is required to compete in the DFS streets each week, but depending on the size of the tournaments you partake in, you’re going to need a little bit of luck as well (variance). So each week, as we consume, plan, strategize, build, and compete, there will ultimately end up being “how we should have performed” and “how we actually performed.”

The best way I can put it is this: I am the definition of a casual golfer. More bad than good, but happy to be there. When I strike the ball well, that’s the outcome I am looking for. Whatever happens when the ball is in the air and lands and rolls, that’s mostly out of my control. It’s hard enough making pure contact directly where you want the ball to go, and sometimes seeing there’s a sand trap in that one spot short left of the green that I didn’t see on the approach is just how it goes. 

You can always control certain variables (how you build, contests you enter, etc.) and can’t control others (the game environment you chose flopped, one team seemingly never got off the bus, the other player on the same offense exploded for a big game, etc.).

So when thinking about how to frame Week 9, I thought a nice refresher was the way to go. No matter your recent outcomes, stay in it and stick to it. Your next week is likely going to be your best one.

Props Insider!

Through just over a week of NBA, we’re sitting on nearly $400 in profit (+6.6%).

Props are an inefficient market!!!

It’s worth it to take advantage, especially during this time of year. (Early NBA season can be particularly profitable.)

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Week 9 :: Angles

There will be byes! I’m not overly excited about it, but at first glance the Week 9 main slate looks very similar to Week 8, with one exception — we have Pittsburgh and San Francisco on a bye. 

A 12-game slate still carries more total points in it than the 10-gamer we grew used to a few weeks back, so the first take here is to frame our minds in a similar way we did last week. We’re down PIT and SF, as well as Houston, the Jets, Colts, Vikings, Buccaneers, and Chiefs due to the prime time island games. The Bucs’ absence eliminates much of our Week 8 value plays, while the Colts off the slate means we won’t need to contemplate the Richardson vs. Flacco effect for this one. No Mahomes, Stroud, Purdy, Rodgers, but still plenty of teams looking to hit that 30-point threshold this week.

Of the 12-games, as of this writing (Wednesday), we have nine teams looking at 24+ implied points, with one game sitting three to four points above the rest: Cowboys at Falcons and its 52 total, along with an expected three-point spread. Just to state the obvious here, but Cowboys and Falcons means Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, and your immediate reaction right there in reading those names should give you a sense of how wide of a range of outcomes we can see in their matchup. The Falcons bring absolutely no pressure (third worst in the NFL), so for all the scrutiny of the Cowboys recently, this feels like a get-right spot for their offense.

Behind Dallas // Atlanta sits Miami // Buffalo, where the Bills have won five straight meetings. Buffalo in particular has a gaudy 27.5 implied total this time around. Josh Allen and co. looked elite last week in Seattle functioning mostly through James Cook, and over the course of these last five games against Miami, the Bills have averaged 33.2 points. Against a familiar foe, Buffalo’s offense sits right there with Dallas and Atlanta this week. The question then becomes, how much can we expect out of Tua again here? 

Packers // Lions sit in the late window this week, and we hope we’ll get good news on Jordan Love playing. If he does, with the current state of the Lions defense down Aidan Hutchinson, there will be points. With a looming bye in Week 10 for the Pack, it’s possible they’d prefer to rest Love, but as far as important divisional matchups, this sets up as a good test. On the Lions’ side of the ball, we didn’t really get to see how they’ll play without Jameson Williams, as they constantly had short fields to work with against Tennessee and hardly threw the ball at all. The Packers’ D will pose a more serious threat to stopping Detroit on the ground, which points again to Jared Goff and volume to his two best receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

Rams // Seahawks is the last game that deserves to be on this tier. The total is sitting above 48 points, and with Puka and Kupp back in the fold after handing the Vikings their second loss of the season last week, Vegas is ready to get behind the Rams once again as slight favorites on the road in Seattle. We saw how limited the Seahawks were without DK Metcalf last week, and many will expect the same this week. Remember, using last week to predict this week is lazy. What we do know is the Bills’ defense has been rounding into form lately, and the Rams’ defense is good at one thing — bringing pressure. Depending on Metcalf’s health, this feels like it will be the overlooked matchup from this top tier this week, but an interesting one considering we’ve seen fireworks with these teams before.

Not a Shootout, Not To Be Ignored

The Ravens, Eagles, and Bengals all have implied totals above 26 points and are favorites in their matchups by at least a touchdown. As we’ve seen, all three of these offenses could carry DFS lineups with ease. It’s not guaranteed but likely that none of the Broncos, Jags, and Raiders can keep up, but that’s also what your competition will think. Taking them briefly, one by one:

• Baltimore has the most difficult matchup with the Broncos, by overall record and the defensive unit. However, coming off a loss against Cleveland, the Ravens should have their foot on the gas here. Bringing in Diontae Johnson helps, and regardless of opponent, Baltimore is expected to score nearly 28 points. Lamar and Derrick Henry should fuel another strong offensive performance, but what Ravens defense will show up? Bo Nix has looked better recently, and Sean Payton can still draw it up. Teams continue to pass at will on Baltimore, so you’ll get the usual crowd drawing up cheap Nix and Sutton stacks, but the question to ask is not if they are viable, but how viable in this game?
• Philadelphia got its mojo back in last week’s dismantling of the Bengals. They get the Jaguars this week and it’s such an interesting setup. The Eagles are on a three-game winning streak and they’ve featured the lowest pass play rate in that time at just 35.5%. They want to run the ball to win. The Jaguars have faced the second-most pass attempts this season and rank second in yards after catch allowed. Philly will want to run and Jacksonville may not be able to stop them, but will the Eagles flip to the air if that path becomes more available?
• Cincinnati welcomes the Raiders this week, for the first time since their home playoff win during their Super Bowl run three years ago. We don’t know the plan for Tee Higgins yet this week, but without much in the running game lately, I can promise you Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase won’t be as owned as they should be here. The Raiders somehow haven’t really faced a true WR1 all season, the closest being Diontae back in Week 3, who went 8/122/1 with Andy Dalton as his QB. The metrics will look better, but checking under the hood shows some issues.

All of these comments are just what jumped out to me around the top games this week. We didn’t even get to the Chargers // Browns, which could be fun, or this week’s easy button, the New Orleans Saints (vs. Carolina). Nor did we touch Bears // Cardinals. That’s not to say those three games lack intrigue, but by design, we start at the top, and so does our competition.

Just as you’ll look at this slate and “size up” the matchups, realize this is another one like last week, where many paths are presented and many can be profitable. 

And with that, let’s hang out on the site in the coming days, build lineups to use or react to in the Bink Machine, and get to the top of those leaderboards on Sunday!

~ Larejo

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Learn how to Use The Workbook

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

This slate appears rock-solid on the surface, highlighted by higher game totals than we’ve seen all season. I believe the field is likeliest to react to that truth by attacking game environments at a much higher rate than what we’ve seen utilized this season. My reasoning is simple, as scoring has come down, the field has been less interested in game environment bets when the fact of the matter is those bets only become more valuable with the decrease in scoring. Now, with game totals up, we’re likely to see a swift overcorrection in the opposite direction. Except, at least to me, there are fewer game environments on this slate that could legitimately develop into something you had to have or you weren’t winning GPPs, particularly when you compare those games to the ones present on the previous six week’s worth of slates. That makes me fundamentally want to shift how I approach the slate, instead looking to teams and situations that are likely to outperform expectations and/or salary implications.

The good news is we have no shortage of bets to make along those lines given the increased Vegas implied team totals. Furthermore, a good starting point on this slate is to find the players that are fundamentally underpriced relative to their respective role or production profile, a practice that can increase your effective salary in a game where everyone starts at the same point ($50,000 in salary). The easy ones are not going overlooked by the field (Alvin Kamara, De’Von Achane, Cedric Tillman, etc.), but I promise you there are more of them out there this week who are getting far fewer eyes on them. We’ll cover some of them below, but you will get a more complete picture on The Slate podcast on Saturday morning. With that, let’s have some fun with this Week 9 slate, shall we?

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

CHASE BROWN

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Chase Brown has already operated as the lead back in this Cincinnati offense since Week 4, averaging 12.8 carries and 3.6 targets per game in that span. What has truly held him back from fantasy stardom has been a continued distrust in pass protection situations, which is why Zack Moss has continued to play a near-even number of offensive snaps. Moss popped on the injury report Friday with a neck injury and was promptly ruled out for Sunday, leaving only Brown and Trayveon Williams as active backs on the roster. So, the question then becomes, will Brown’s snap rate increase substantially without Moss? My answer is an emphatic “yes,” and it has more to do with the matchup than it does strictly with Moss’ absence. The Raiders rank 31^st in pressure rate at a paltry 26.4%. If you remember back to Week 4, you’ll likely recall me stating that Brown had a chance to do some real damage in a matchup with a Panthers team that ranked dead last in pressure rate due to the lowered requirement for pass protection snaps from the backfield. He proceeded to hang 80 yards and two touchdowns in that spot. This brings us back to the Raiders and their low pressure rates. It is because of those low pressure rates that I expect Brown to see a significant bump in snap rate and be free to be in a route at an increased rate, which is big for an offense that has fed its backfield the ninth most targets this season. I see a floor of five to six targets to go with 15-18 carries here, for a running back that holds a 4.6 yards per carry mark and 3.03 yards after contact per attempt this season, in a matchup against an opponent that can be had for yards on the ground.

CEDRIC TILLMAN

EXPANSIVE CHALK. 21 targets in the two games without Amari Cooper in a more robust route tree, for an offense with a clear path to 40+ pass attempts, should not be priced at $4,300. Ever. Even if there’s a fire.

ALVIN KAMARA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. This is one of those spots where the question should not be “can Alvin Kamara fail,” it should be, “the offense is extremely unlikely to fail, so if Kamara fails, how does he fail?” This line of thinking has made me land at an expectation of “either Kamara or Taysom Hill on every roster this week.”

DRAKE LONDON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Is it just me or do you immediately think of the Michael Jordan “stop it, get some help” anti-drug public service announcement meme every time you see Drake London as chalk? Just me?

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Sunday Morning Update

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.4K

Matthew Stafford
Bijan Robinson
Tyrone Tracy
Puka Nacua
Jalen Coker
Cedric Tillman
Mike Gesicki
Taysom Hill
Bills

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Rams

Two or three weeks ago, I listed the Ravens up here for “mix and match” purposes. In other words :: “We’re unlikely to get many scores of 25+ on DK this week, and we’re highly likely to get one such score from the Ravens; as such, mixing and matching Ravens pieces is a +EV way to build.” That week, we got paid off multiple ways by the Ravens, and I completed my research this week thinking I would put the Rams in the Blue Chip category with the same thinking :: mix and match Kyren // Kupp // Nacua, and either A) benefit with solid scores from two of these three, or B) benefit with a big score from one of these three. As explored in my DFS Interpretations, these three have played only 10 games together since the start of last year, with the following production ::

• Kupp 22.8 // Puka 20.1
• Kupp 30.8 // Kyren 24.8
• Kyren 41.4
• Puka 23.9 // Kyren 20.2
• Kupp 25.5
• Kupp 28.1 // Kyren 27.5
• Puka 33.0
• Kyren 30.1
• Puka 35.9
• Kyren 22.6 // Puka 21.1

Breaking that down ::

• In six of 10 games, we have gotten 28+ from one of these guys
  • In two of THOSE games, another one of these two scored 24+
• There was one game in which Kupp scored 25.5, and neither of the other two cracked 20
• And then there were three games in which none of these three went for 25+; but in all three of those games, two of these three went for 20+

With how hard it has been to scoop 25+ point scores of late, and with how likely it is that we get 25+ from one of these guys, mixing and matching these guys is extremely +EV.

But then I realized, it’s not just mixing and matching these three that’s a Blue Chip approach. We also have Matthew Stafford, who averaged 17.9 DK points per game last year, and is averaging 12.9 DK points per game this year. That’s “decent” for last year, and “not good” for this year. That’s why he’s priced at $5.7k. But what the DraftKings pricing algorithm is not accounting for is how much of a difference it makes to have all three of these weapons on the field at the same time.

When we look at the 10 games Stafford has played with all three of these weapons, he has scored 23+ 60% of the time. In fact, his first two games with all three weapons were his two worst games with all three weapons. Across his last eight, he has scored 23+ 75% of the time(!). For the sake of comparison :: Hurts has scored 23+ in two of seven games this year // Jordan Love has scored 23+ in 36% of his games as a starter (which is excellent, albeit not necessarily for his price tag) // Joe Burrow has scored 23+ in 25% of his games this year // Dak Prescott has scored 23+ one time this year // and Geno, on the other side of this game, has scored 23+ once as well. Across Stafford’s 10 games with all three weapons, he is averaging 21.3 DK points per game, which is better than every quarterback on this slate (2024 numbers) except for Lamar and Hurts. If we take just Stafford’s last eight games with all three weapons, he is averaging 22.8 ppg, which is better than every QB on this slate except Lamar.

To be clear, the guys priced above $7k have 30-point games within their range of outcomes, which is not really the case for Stafford (outside of fluky outcomes); but given that the relevant sample size for Stafford effectively has him as the second- or third-best QB on the slate from a points-per-game perspective, and that he costs only $5.7k, he’s an extremely sharp way to build around this slate.

“Stafford + one piece from the Rams” will feature heavily across my builds this week, and I’ll be making my other quarterback decisions on this slate through the lens of how they stack up against Stafford (no other affordable QBs would be expected to produce 23+ DK points as often as Stafford would in this spot, so what I want from other QBs is 30-point ceiling, or a dramatically cheaper price tag). I also may have one Rams piece on every roster. Individually, these guys are not Blue Chip plays; but collectively (with a mix-and-match approach), they are.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“5.567”

Stafford + Puka + Taysom

Story:

“The most obvious thing happens; + Taysom”

Why It Works:

As explored throughout this week (and as laid out in the Blue Chips section, in detail), Stafford “with all three of his alpha weapons” has been a very different quarterback than he’s been without these weapons. The first part of this bet, then, is straightforward and obvious: “Stafford does what he’s consistently done with these weapons; and Puka is the guy who benefits.” Adding Taysom (explored in more depth in the “Joker” Building Block, below) lowers the average salary spent here to $5.567k per player, giving you tons of flexibility across the rest of your roster.

How It Works:

If Stafford and Puka hit, you’ll ideally have one of the top point-per-dollar quarterback scores and one of the top raw scores at wide receiver. Taysom hitting would really separate your roster from the field, and you would have massive amounts of salary flexibility, allowing you to have a different roster construction than the field. The raw ceiling on this play doesn’t quite “win you a tourney on its own,” but it does set you up on a clear pathway to the tops of the leaderboards.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Koker”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Cheap TEs

I have a long list of cheap tight ends I’m interested in this week (see tight ends in the Bonus section, below), then I also have Bowers // McBride // Taysom // Gesicki isolated as core tight ends. As noted in my “Cheap Tight Ends with Upside” writeup :: I’m comfortable playing any of the tight ends on the list below alongside Bowers // McBride // Taysom // Gesicki, but I don’t want to play two tight ends from the list below on a roster together.

This rule says, “If I’m playing Mark Andrews, don’t play any of the other tight ends on this list.”

I have this same rule built nine times :: once for each of the tight ends on the list below.

If you use the Bink Machine, you can leverage these rules of mine yourself.

If you don’t use the Bink Machine, this is a “rule” you can consider implementing in your hand-builds. “Willing to play tight end in the Flex, but not willing to play two guys from this list together.”

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Matthew Stafford || Dak Prescott || Caleb Williams || Jared Goff || Bryce Young

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback ::

• Dak Prescott – Dak and CeeDee Lamb finally connected for a big game last week and we saw how they were able to get rolling in the second half of 2023. The Falcons don’t pressure the quarterback well and Dak should have time to fill the stat sheet in the highest total game of the week.
• Joe Burrow – Burrow has a good matchup and his team is projected to score nearly four touchdowns. He has an elite receiver and with the absence of Tee Higgins, the rest of the Bengals skill players are very cheap for stacking.
• Matthew Stafford – Stafford has an affordable salary and three premium pass catchers (Kyren, Kupp, Puka) who you can stack him with in a plus matchup.
• Salary Savers: Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew, Jameis Winston

Running Back :: 

• Chase Brown – Brown has been the more explosive player in the Bengals backfield this year and gets a full workload this week against a below-average Raiders defense. Sub-$6k in a good matchup and expected for 20+ touches is hard to ignore.
• Bijan Robinson – The Cowboys defense has faced four top-12 DVOA rushing offenses. In those games, they allowed opposing backfields to accumulate DK point totals of 21, 33.1, 40.8, and 50.9. Atlanta is 4th in rushing offense DVOA and 5th in PFF run blocking grade, while Bijan can also make plays in the receiving game. 
• De’Von Achane – Still priced reasonably and we saw last week how he is both the team’s best rusher and will be involved in the passing game. Raheem Mostert poaching a couple of TDs will scare a lot of people off of him, but if/when Achane gets those TDs as well, he will break a slate.
• Alvin Kamara – Saints are in a terrific matchup, may get Derek Carr back, and Kamara is likely to dominate the backfield touches again. This screams “blow up spot”. 
• Kyren Williams – The Seahawks have been getting destroyed by opposing running games recently and Kyren has one of the best roles in the league among all RBs.
• D’Andre Swift – Another solid game last week and Swift is positioned to be more involved as a receiver against a Cardinals defense that doesn’t get much pressure on the QB. 
• Saquon Barkley – The Eagles are likely to score a lot of points and Barkley is a dual-threat player who is going to have a game where he goes nuts on the ground and through the air eventually, why not against the 32nd-ranked defense in the league at single digit ownership?
• Salary Savers: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Tyler Allgeier, Trayveon Williams, Julius Chestnut

Wide Receiver :: 

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Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 9 Overview

Four games on the slate this week and there are interesting situations all over the place. The Eagles are heating up and facing a Jaguars team that is injured and reeling. The Lions and Packers square off for control of the NFC North in a game that could have weather issues and where Jordan Love’s availability and effectiveness are in question. The Bears defense has yet to allow more than 21 points in a game this season, but they have struggled with elusive QBs and Kyler Murray could be a nightmare for them, while the Bears offense has had its biggest games against weaker secondaries and teams that don’t generate much pass rush, both traits that fit the Cardinals defense. That game has underrated potential to shoot out. Finally, the Rams offense is back at full strength and the Seahawks are playing without DK Metcalf. Both defenses look not great on paper but have played very well at times this year. There are a lot of different ways things could go in all of the games, with the JAX/PHI game being the one where we can have a high degree of confidence in how it plays out. That allows for a lot of creative ways to approach the slate and should make for a fun afternoon.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

I, Too, Am Questionable

Lots of injury wait-and-see this week. Depending on insider reports on Saturday, I may wait until Sunday morning to build anything, so it’s less hand-build and more optimizer for me.

I’ll need to be as efficient as possible with my thoughts and organized with my files. So, I’m going old-school Sonic and creating a PPW.
Here’s an excerpt from my DFS Tournament Mastermind Training course (available now under the Courses tab!) that explains this process:

Create Your Player Pool Worksheet (PPW)

Take your first look at the slate and make a lineup based on any plays that jump out at you.

DK is usually pretty tight, so a huge part of our process every week will be digging for any players that have volume and upside at a reasonable price. Pick a couple of RBs that fit that description and then see if you can locate a low-priced stack with upside. Throw together a lineup and put it into your 150 max contest of choice.… it’s amusing to see if that LU is still viable when Sunday rolls around.

The main reason for this lineup is to create your Play Pool Worksheet. My process isn’t particularly sophisticated, but it works for me. You can obviously get fancier if you’re so inclined. 

On Draftkings, go to LINEUPS  > EDIT ENTRIES and download the CSV file for the contest in which your lineup was entered. Open that csv and you’ll see the full player list to the right of your lineup. Copy and paste all the players and their salaries into a new worksheet. Now you can tweak this document to make it look legible and easy to populate. Sort by position and then paste the players from each position into their own tab if you like. Create a bunch of columns that represent all of the sources of information you use to do your weekly research. I usually add a “%” column so I can start to notate how much of a player I’d like to have in my 150 lineups. 

I’ll often change their name to red if I decide to make them part of my core. As the week goes on, we’ll fill this in until it’s chock full o’ information and refer to it when creating lineups by hand or populating our optimizer. 

*You can use this first PPW as a template for future weeks. Just paste the new information in there each week. Also, if you don’t want to make a lineup and/or enter a contest yet, you can download the DKSalaries.csv file by selecting your tournament from the lobby, navigating to the Create Lineups page and clicking the “Export to CSV” link located below the player box on the right. The process is the same on Fan Duel except the “Download Players List” is above the players to the right.

I use the DK player and salary information to create my PPW and just make notes if certain Fan Duel-related information presents itself, such as salary differences or players that have better value in FD’s Half-PPR format. 

*PPW 2019 week 2 – early in the week

These are contrarian moves I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Sometimes we’ll miss, but the ones that do hit will help us lap the field.

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

Derrick Henry/Courtland Sutton

While Denver’s pass defense has been solid, they’ve shown some cracks against the run, allowing 106.4 rushing yards per game—and they haven’t faced anyone quite like Derrick Henry. This could set the stage for the King to take advantage at his low 3.1% projected ownership. Despite showing some improvement, Baltimore has still been generous with nearly 291.4 passing yards allowed per game. Courtland Sutton (at 4.8% pOWN) might be in a prime spot to capitalize. If this game turns into a back-and-forth, Henry and Sutton could be the catalysts that swing things.

Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers

If you’re looking to reduce projected ownership on a roster, try a secondary stack from this game. If Jordan Love is declared active in time, ownership could rise, but as of Saturday morning, Amon-Ra St. Brown leads with a modest 6%.

For the touchdown-induced ceiling, pairing Jahmyr Gibbs and Romeo Doubs stands out. For salary savings, Christian Watson and Tim Patrick offer potential value, requiring minimal volume to deliver returns at a combined price of $8,500. Keep an eye on the meteorologists and pivot to a weather-resistant duo of Jayden Reed and David Montgomery if things look ugly at Lambeau.

CeeDee Lamb/Saquon Barkley/Juwan Johnson/Hunter Henry

No, these players aren’t correlated but hear me out. Saquon’s got a ridiculous ceiling against the hapless Jaguars, and CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott look like they’re finding chemistry through desperation in Dallas. I want all three in some builds, but I’ll need some salary relief that’s low-owned with a legit path to a strong price-considered ceiling.

Enter Hunter Henry—the lone bright spot in New England’s pass-catching group. I trust him to hit 15 PPR points more than any of those sub-$4k wideouts. I had Taysom Hill in my first build on Monday, but I’ve heard him mentioned on multiple podcasts this week, so there’s definitely some steam concerns there. For a few lineups, I’m trying the double-TE move, but with a twist: Juwan Johnson instead of Hill. JJ showed some serious promise at the end of last season but hasn’t had the chance to shine this year. He was just getting back from an injury when the Saints lost Derek Carr, but now Carr’s back, and they’re thin on pass-catchers. JJ’s a bit of a long shot, but at $3,200 and 2% ownership, he’s a sneaky leverage play off the more popular Saints options.

I also kinda dig Taysom and Juwan together in non-Carr rosters…but maybe I’m just chasing Discord “I played that” equity.  “Taysom in the Wildcat, he throws… touchdown!” 😜

Uh-oh. It’s only Week Nine and I’m punch-drunk.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• Week 9 has a strong top tier with four games: DAL/ATL (52), MIA/BUF (49.5), DET/GB (48), and LAR/SEA (48) all have high totals.
• The middle tier has six games: DEN/BAL (46.5), LV/CIN (45), NO/CAR (43.5), WAS/NYG (44), CHI/AZ (44.5), JAX/PHI (46), all with desirable totals.
• The bottom tier has only two games in LAC/CLE (42) and NE/TEN (38).

Pawn – WR Jermaine Burton ($3,100)

Tee Higgins has been ruled doubtful which opens the door for Burton to see his first meaningful NFL action. Well, technically he played 41% of the snaps last week which I suppose qualifies as “meaningful” but this week he should be a full-time player after Burrow said that Burton deserves more playing time. Burton was known for being a big-time player in college with maturity issues that caused his draft stock to slip. The Bengals still used a third-round pick on him (80^th overall) and they don’t have much incentive to give Trenton Irwin snaps over figuring out what they have with Burton. A lot of analysts viewed Burton as a late first or early second-round pick based on talent, and if he’s been flashing in practice, there is a chance he could be ready to contribute at the NFL level. This is a speculative play, but if Burton produces, he’ll never be priced near the minimum again. With Chase Brown ($5,900) becoming one of the most popular players of the week since Zack Moss was ruled out, there is a good chance Burton will draw negligible ownership. I’ll use him as leverage on rosters where I decided to not use Brown.

Knight – TE Sam Laporta ($4,800)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 9 Topics

1. Unique Slate

2. Jerry’s World

3. The Gem That Unlocks The Slate

4. Value Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?

The Answers ::

JM >>

To me, what’s making this slate unique is the available salary. This may not be the way everyone is seeing this slate, of course, but I feel that the following affordable players are underpriced for their role and/or upside-potential this week :: Matthew Stafford || Chase Brown || Tyrone Tracy || Cedric Tillman || Elijah Moore || Jalen Coker || Taysom Hill || Mike Gesicki. While many of these guys will be popular, pairings may not be quite as popular; and pairings with another tight end (Bowers or McBride, in particular, though also things like Dak // CeeDee // Ferguson) will be even less popular. Said differently, I genuinely like some of these plays, and I would say “fair price” for every player on that list is about $800 more than the price they are carrying. This makes it easy for me to find myself with two guys from that list on a roster, and to then be surprised at how much flexibility I have to pretty much stock a roster full of mid- to high-priced players I really like. Given the current meta of DK pricing, where everything is tighter than it was in the past, and where we’re paying more than “fair value” on a lot of players, this is a unique setup indeed. To top it all off, this could prove to be a somewhat unique roster construction approach, which creates an even clearer pathway to a first-place finish.

Xandamere >>

We might finally get running back value week! The sites have been doing an exceptionally good job of pricing up backup running backs, and so we aren’t getting a bunch of min-sal RBs, but Chase Brown and Tyrone Tracy are both very clearly underpriced for their expected touches/matchup. And then we might finally get a couple of actual super-cheap RBs…Tony Pollard seems likelier to miss than to play and Julius Chestnut is minimum salary on both main sites. Brian Robinson could miss for the Commanders, and Jeremy McNichols is min salary as well. It feels like after multiple weeks of really tight pricing, things are at least somewhat opening up (it’s not “loose,” but there are a bunch of clear underpriced spots). 

Hilow >>

Staying true to the theme of the 2024 season, pricing remains extremely tight. That said, we have plentiful team totals that seem ripe for fantasy goodness. The Bills, Ravens, and Falcons all have Vegas implied team totals over 27 points. The Eagles and Bengals are nipping at their heels at 26.5 and 26.25, respectively. The Lions (25.25), Saints (25.25), Rams (24.5), Cowboys (24.25), Commanders (24.0), Seahawks (23.5), Packers (22.75), Chargers (21.75), and Dolphins (21.5) all have team totals north of 21 points. But again, pricing is tight.

This gives us a good idea of the starting point for our rosters this week, likely needing 205-210 points to ship major GPPs. That is a similar starting point to what we dealt with last week and a stark contrast to what we needed the month preceding Week 8. This means that players priced below where they should be gain immense value, most notably, for me, bringing the Browns’ pass game pieces back to the forefront of consideration (Jameis Winston + Elijah Moore + Cedric Tillman, while also emphasizing players like De’Von Achane, Cooper Kupp (if Puka Nacua out), Tyrone Tracy (if he clears protocol), Sam LaPorta without Jameson Williams in a tight end-funnel matchup, even running backs like Rhamondre Stevenson and D’Andre Swift.

Mike >>

This week feels hard, especially on Draftkings. The main reason for that is the fact that there is not a ton of available, comfortable value options. That is exaggerated by the fact that we are coming off a week that was loaded with value options. The psychology of “what happened most recently” is at play here, which makes it feel harder than it really is. Said another way, if we were playing this slate a week ago without the recent memory of the Browns/Bucs/Dolphins situations making roster building very easy, this would feel like just another slate.

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2. Jerry’s World

The Question ::

The DAL/ATL game projects as one that could turn into something special. Not only is it the highest total game on the slate, the Cowboys defense has been terrible this season and the Falcons defense is one that consistently fails to get pressure on the quarterback. While the Cowboys running game has stalled this year, they have become fairly predictable and have struggled against defenses that could pin their ears back and expose them. Considering how likely it is that Atlanta has a lot of offensive success against Dallas with their balanced and explosive offense and the fact that Dallas may actually be able to move the ball prior to garbage time to push the game environment, this one seems to have all the ingredients for a true explosion game – or at least that’s how I am seeing it. 

With all of that mind, what are your thoughts on this spot and how are you approaching it? I think a mistake that people often make is trying to account for too many different games on every roster and thinking “I need a guy from that team/game” or this roster doesn’t have a chance. Do you think that fallacy is actually accurate in this spot or what are the paths to where “fading” this game can pay off?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

The Props Insider team has helped the OWS Fam profit over $35,000 the last 2 years!! And the best part…

WE ALL GET TO WIN AT THE SAME TIME!

To get all the bets each week, subscribe with a Week, Month, or Year long Subscription

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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.

Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.

(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)

Jalen Tolbert (DAL) UNDER 3.5 Receptions

While he’s playing in one of the highest total games on the slate, the Falcons have filtered targets away from the outside and toward the slot, TEs, and RBs. They play a lot of zone, play it well, and keep the ball in front of them. Tolbert plays the majority of his snaps on the outside with an aDOT of 13+.

The bet is good to: -120

Khalil Shakir (BUF) UNDER 4.5 Receptions

Shakir is coming off of a spike week. We like getting this bet at or close to plus money with Amari Cooper’s arrival in town and Keon Coleman’s role continuing to grow.

The bet is good to: -115

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

It was around 2016 and I was walking home from work on the sidewalks of New York City. In my ears, I was listening to the DFS Edge, hosted each week by Adam Levitan with co-hosts Peter Jennings and Al Zeidenfeld. Three of the best, and they kept me company at least one walk home at the end of each week. These three were part of the reason I got into DFS. I related to them, and at the time each of them had a slightly different playing style that rounded the discussion nicely. When you have a group of people with similar interests, and in this case playing styles, it isn’t the best breeding ground for interesting discussion. But with Adam, Al, and Peter, they were all different kinds of DFS players. Adam (again, at that time) was a major cash game player. He was dominant at it from what I could gather, but was always reluctant to play the lottery of GPPs (he’s since dominated GPP life as well). Peter was the high-stakes guy, always present in the big-money lobbies, having taken down live finals and more than a handful of over six figures wins. Al was the elder statesman of the group who literally won the Milly Maker during the show’s heyday, and he was always willing to take stances and let it fly in lineups. Cash, GPP, and high-stakes. Many of us who have been playing DFS for a long time know these three well. And I’ll tell you why I am bringing this show up here, now. I’ve never agreed or disagreed with everything a content producer brings forward. Even with these three who I admired (and the early days of some guy named JMtoWin at RotoGrinders), I always found myself wanting to argue some of their takes. It’s why I eventually started writing on my own. 

But back in 2016, one thing I could not understand was how or why we should be building different lineups for different contests, even cash lineups vs. GPPs. Then small-field GPPs vs. large-field GPPs, and so on. In my mind, you want to build lineups to win. If there were 20 other entries or 200,000 other entries, I never felt like I should adjust my strategy. The name of the game is to be different and have the lineup that wins, right?! In cash games, where you had around a 40% chance of winning, I rarely found myself caring about ownership. I knew who the chalk would be, just like everyone else, but I didn’t naturally gravitate towards it. My overconfidence got me in trouble. I never won in cash games, like ever. I think if I pulled my ROI back in say 2019, I was a profitable GPP player by a long shot, fueled by a few big (by my standards) wins, but my cash game ROI was dragging me down. I would tinker with my approach from time to time, but in hindsight, I was way too stubborn to listen to guys like Al or Adam tell us about how to build for cash vs. large-field GPPs. So I simply lost money in one contest style (H2H, 50/50s), all the time. I ended up giving up the cash game dream and figured you know what, I am in this for life-changing money, and some thrills along the way, so I guess in a way I found my niche playing mostly large-field GPPs at lower stakes. It comes with a lot of losing but each week, the slate stares you in the face and you feel ever confident in how to attack to win a large chunk of change.

Fast forward to 2024, and I am having a blast bringing you content on OWS for a fourth straight season. Willing to Lose feels like a baby of mine, as it is the article derived from years of failure attacking small-field GPPs and 50/50 cash games. And I took you on this journey (kudos to you if you are still reading along) because this week, Week 9 of the 2024 season is one of the best large-field GPP weeks of the season. For that reason, you’ll only see me in the large-field streets this week, no single entries, three-max or anything in between. It’s going to be all or nothing, and hopefully, I don’t min cash. Join me in diving into a few lower-owned strategies where I’ll be willing to lose…

Jayden Daniels (+) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. 

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

My Sunday mornings used to be filled with long cups of coffee before late morning brunch. If I was playing the slate I could sit and tinker with my lineups until “Inactives” were posted. Life was pretty sweet. It’s definitely sweeter now with two kids (three year old and three months old) but it does not lend itself to easy Sunday mornings. I usually have to get up before dawn to adjust lineups in response to the Saturday night Schefter tweets. What do your Sunday mornings require of you and what space do you find to make final adjustments?

Recognizing Bias on Gameday

This past Sunday I learned that Tee Higgins was out and that Andre Iosivas was drawing ownership as a cheap replacement. I had rostered zero shares of Higgins and hadn’t even considered Iosivas that week. I switched my main SE roster from Otton in the flex to Iosivas, looked it over, and caught myself. This was novelty bias tempting me to roster someone who had not been on my radar, thinking that the upside had to be greater for a cheap WR2 at lower ownership than for a second TE. The decision to roster Otton had been a big part of my process that week. He was my only TB pass catcher for good reason. What would compel a good DFS player like myself to second guess my research on a Sunday morning? That is how bias works, and if we are not careful, it can upend a week full of good decision making. 

DFS is ultimately a series of decisions and we confront bias at several points in our journey toward setting our lineups for the week. The less time we have for those decisions, the more likely we are to be influenced by bias, and that’s what makes your analysis of your typical Sunday morning an important consideration in your continued battle to recognize the bias in your life. The more time you have to process the late injuries or other information, the easier it is to make a sound decision, but if your Sundays are swamped with family or church or something else, you need to have a plan.

Bias and FOMO

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Week 9

Solo Ship – JM & Squirrel Patrol

DFS Labs – Papy & Cheeseman

Angles – JM

Block Party – JM & Peter Overzet

Searching for Ceiling – Hilow & Rich Hribar

DFS LABS DK – STATATL & Cheeseman

DFS LABS FD – Maximus & Mike Johnson

DFS Labs DK – Hilow & Cheeseman

Week 9 Roster Review – STATATL