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Week 8 Angles
OWS Fam —
Welcome to a very full Week 8!
In a strange scheduling quirk, the NFL has given us a random week in the middle of the season with no teams on bye. There are also no London games, and there is no double-MNF setup, which gives us a full 13 games on the Main Slate — only the second time all season we have had a true, full slate (Week 1 being the other instance).
Even with only six teams missing from the Main Slate, we have some marquee offenses and names out of play, with the Bills (Josh Allen // Stefon Diggs), Chargers (Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen), Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), and Raiders (Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams) in primetime games.
Before we take a look at some of the key offenses in play, and some of the key implied team totals, it’s worth taking a moment to reflect on some of the things we’ve seen over the last two weeks of football, including:
>> The Browns beating the 49ers in Week 6
>> The Jets beating the Eagles in Week 6
>> The Bears embarrassing the Raiders in Week 7
>> The Colts moving the ball and scoring 38 points against the Browns defense in Week 7
>> The Ravens destroying the Lions in Week 7
>> The Patriots beating the Bills in Week 7
>> The Vikings beating the 49ers in Week 7
On the one hand, this is a reminder that anything can happen on any given Sunday in the NFL. But more importantly (or, at least, more to the point), this is a critical reminder that our perceptions of NFL teams are often shaped by what they do through the first few weeks of the season, but in reality, NFL teams continue to develop throughout a season, and “who a team was” is not always the same as “who a team is.” Every year, we have instances of a team that had a really rough couple weeks (or a really good couple weeks) in a particular area early in the season, only for things in that area to change dramatically as the season moves along. That team is no longer “who they were,” and yet, the public’s perceptions have already been locked in place.
Similarly, every year, we have instances of players who have a really rough couple weeks (or a really good couple weeks), and it can take until the end of the season (if ever) for the public to change the way they see that player.
The NFL is dynamic. Teams aren’t even fully aware of “who they are” until around this point in the season. And one of our greatest edges around this stretch of the season is a willingness to be open-minded, and to establish for ourselves who these teams and players are right now, in this particular season, and to attack slates accordingly. Year in and year out, this tends to be one of our best stretches of the season at OWS. Let’s lock that in once again!
With so many teams on the Main Slate (26 in all), we have more teams than normal implied to score north of 24 points — though as we have grown accustomed to in this current wave of “how defenses and offenses match up with one another in the NFL,” even these higher implied totals should be talked about against a backdrop of “defense” or “defense-minded game environments.”
The Cowboys are implied to score 25.75 at home against the Rams, but the Rams are 6.5-point underdogs, announcing to us that the likeliest outcome for this game is something shy of a shootout.
The Dolphins are implied to score 28.25 at home against the Patriots, but the Patriots are 9.5-point underdogs, announcing to us that the likeliest outcome for this game is something shy of a shootout.
The Eagles are implied to score 25.0 on the road against the Commanders, but the Commanders are 6.5-point underdogs, announcing to us that the likeliest outcome for this game is something shy of a shootout.
The Ravens are implied to score 26.25 on the road against the Cardinals, but the Cardinals are 8.5-point underdogs, announcing to us that the likeliest outcome for this game is something shy of a shootout.
The Chiefs are implied to score 26.5 on the road against the Broncos, but the Broncos are 7.0-point underdogs, announcing to us that the likeliest outcome for this game is something shy of a shootout.
The 49ers are implied to score 25.25 at home against the Bengals, but the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs, announcing to us that the likeliest outcome for this game is something shy of a shootout.
Outside of these six teams, every team on this slate is implied to score 23 or fewer points, with half the teams on this slate (13) implied to score 20 or fewer.
With all of that said…well, firstly, this is nothing new. Every week in the 2023 season has been like this. And secondly…in spite of the fact that every week in the 2023 season has been like this, we have had 47 instances already this year of a team scoring 30+ points(!). Said differently: on average, we have had 6.7 teams per NFL weekend scoring 30+ points(!), with the list breaking down as follows:
5 – 49ers
4 – Dolphins
3 – Jags // Cowboys // Eagles // Lions // Bills
2 – Colts // Seahawks // Commanders // Broncos // Texans // Chiefs // Bears
1 – Rams // Chargers // Packers // Giants // Saints // Bengals // Jets // Browns // Ravens
Some of those teams are not a surprise, of course, but what about the Colts, Commanders, Broncos, and Bears getting there twice? What about the Giants and Jets getting there? And what about the teams that haven’t gotten there yet…but probably will surprise us at some point in the near future?
Every week, there are going to be surprises on the Main Slate — and every week, we can expand our play beyond the “logical,” looking beyond “what’s likeliest to happen” and focusing, instead, on “what could viably happen?”
It’s a good week for winning.
Let’s go out there and do it!
The Clock Is Ticking:
Last week, when the Angles email went out, there were 187 spots remaining in Props Insider.
One week later, there are only 97 spots remaining.
We’re sitting at over $10,000 in Props Insider profit so far — and last year, we made over $9,000 in NBA alone.
You don’t have to follow the sports; you just have to follow the bets!
These final spots won’t last long.
Grab a spot with a Month pass and see what it’s all about!
I’ll see you in Props Insider soon.
And I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!
-JM