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Magico’s Money-Makers
By El Magico
El Magico is a high-stakes tournament champion who focuses on single-entry/three-entry max // small-field play
Through this article, I will be highlighting a small player pool that is composed of players that rank high in my proprietary model. There are several factors this model takes into consideration such as: DVP (Defense Vs Position), OL/DL matchup, WR/CB matchup, game pace, Vegas totals, target share, value score, air yard opportunities and a few secret sauce metrics I can’t discuss further. As we move forward I will do my best to point out some of the higher ranked players for the OWS community to take into consideration as part of their own research. When it comes to game selection, I would encourage this player pool to be used in single entry, 3-Max smaller field tournaments.
QB:
Patrick Mahomes:
Mahomes is topping the model, that’s all there is to say about him.
Jalen Hurts:
We all know Hurts isn’t playing good real life football, but when it comes to fantasy, he is as consistent as it can get right now. As I scan through the model I notice that several players from the Eagles vs Raiders game are ranking relatively high; this tells me it should be a great game to target and Hurts is one of the centerpieces of this juicy matchup. The ancillary pieces in this matchup make for great stack pieces. At a low cost to access, this matchup has big upside. As a bonus, Hurts will get some help with the return of stud RT Lane Johnson.
Consideration: Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr
RB:
Darrell Henderson:
Every once in a while we get a player that checks all the boxes: highest implied total, favorable matchup, OL/DL mismatch, value play, fast-paced game, and pass game involvement. These are some high-level metrics the model really values, and Henderson is checking them all. In this game, Henderson faces a very weak run defense, and as a lead back, he should be able to feast on this opportunity. Reading through this week’s Edge writeups I picked up on this snippet that validates some of the things the model is picking up on: “said matchup yields a healthy 4.655 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Lions defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position (12 total touchdowns allowed to opposing backfields).”
Josh Jacobs:
I am surprised to see Jacobs rank pretty high in the model so I am listing him as a sneaky value play. Jacobs does get a favorable matchup as the Eagles rank 25th in rush defense DVOA. Ownership seems to remain in check, as of right now (Friday morning), but he could gain momentum as Sunday approaches. I like him as a home favorite. Here are some stat lines that stand out regarding the Eagles run defense:
Leonard Fournette: 127- 2 td’s
Clyde Edwards- Elaire: 114 – 1 td
Ezekiel Elliot: 116 – 2 td’s
Consideration: Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders. Darrel Williams
WR:
Tyreek Hill:
Another week, another Tyreek Hill blowup spot possibility. My only hesitation is his health status; we need to monitor that but this has the makings of a Tyreek “must have score” spot, going against a mediocre Titans pass defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to WRs in the entire league. On the flip side, the KC defense has not been able to stop opposing offenses from scoring so this game should stay competitive throughout. You know the Chiefs will push the pace. Over the last few weeks, they have been ranking 7th in pass rate over expectation. As a bonus, starting Titans CB Kristian Fulton is on IR, leaving behind some stragglers at corner to cover Tyreek Hill.
Marquise Brown:
Tyreek seems like an obvious chalky play. The model is liking what it sees and I have to relay that to you. That’s the way I play. I like to play the best plays and let others make mistakes. At the same time, we can also find some hidden gems in the model, such as we have here with Marquise Brown vs Bengals. Brown will fly under the radar. The Bengals have already given up big games to Davante Adams (11-206-1), Chase Claypool (9-96-0), and Adam Thielen (9-92-2). The arrows point up for Brown.
Devonta Smith:
Smith makes his return to Money Makers with a great matchup vs Raiders and potential shadow treatment by aging Casey Hayward, who most recently got torched by Courtland Sutton for 8-94-1. This game is projected to be one of the fastest-paced matchups in this small and somewhat sluggish slate. This game has a decent total relative to other games and should stay competitive throughout (there are a lot of one-sided matchups this weekend).
Consideration: Ja’Marr Chase, Brandin Cooks
TE:
Darren Waller:
This is the TE crown jewel of this slate. Ownership will be high but seems warranted. The weakness of the Eagles defense is the run and inside coverage as they remain stout on the outside with Darius Slay and Steven Nelson. The coiled spring is tightening for Waller and I am betting it pops this weekend.
Consideration: Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert
Magic Stack:
Jalen Hurts / Devonta Smith / Darren Waller
Bonus Stack:
Patrick Mahomes / Tyreek Hill / A.J. Brown
#TheWorkbook
By Majesstik1
Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS
Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
MACRO SLATE VIEW::
This slate is super interesting and dynamic because we have a few obvious spots this weekend, but those obvious spots are priced up to a point where decisions have to be made by the field. What that is likely to do is curb the expected ownership on the top plays (Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Cooper Kupp) and boost the ownership (and chalkiness of the builds) on the players, teams, and games that appear to carry similar upside at lower salaries (TB wide receivers, Darrell Henderson, Chuba Hubbard, Calvin Ridley). It would serve us well to take a methodical approach to this slate by (1) identifying the top plays in a vacuum, (2) understanding how those pieces can fit on a roster, (3) identifying the viability of value plays on the weekend, and (4) adjusting our approach based on these findings. With that, let’s jump in!
RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::
DERRICK HENRY:
Restrictive chalk. Should be considered one of the two top plays on the slate in a vacuum. There are very few players in the NFL that are capable of 40 to 50-point explosions; the King is one.
TYREEK HILL:
Restrictive chalk. Should be considered one of the two top plays on the slate in a vacuum. There are very few players in the NFL that are capable of 40 to 50-point explosions; Cheetah is one.
DARRELL HENDERSON:
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Moderately priced exposure to one of the top offenses on the slate – makes sense. 17-24 running back opportunities in every healthy game this season, with at least one touchdown in all but one game.
CHUBA HUBBARD:
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. The aggregate ownership numbers indicate Chuba will be popular this week, but I honestly doubt he sees outrageous ownership after burning people last week. We should expect 20+ running back opportunities in a great matchup.
DARREL WILLIAMS:
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. I can see a large chunk of the field looking to gain cheap exposure to the Kansas City offense this week, and that cheap exposure is likeliest to come through D-Will. Now consider the shiny box score provided last week through his two-touchdown game, and it appears to be a “can’t-miss” situation. I would argue Williams is one of the bigger traps on the entire slate.
CHRIS GODWIN:
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. No Antonio Brown. No Rob Gronkowski. No Scottie Miller. 29.5 Vegas implied team total. Yea, Godwin is going to carry heavy ownership here.
COOPER KUPP:
Restrictive chalk. The last remaining player in the NFL to see double-digit targets in every game played this season. Enough said.
CALVIN RIDLEY:
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. I was actually surprised to see the expected ownership numbers on Ridley. The only case I can make for the expected ownership is the name value paired with a moderate price tag, which should filter heavy ownership to this mid-range-in-pricing wide receiver crowd. He’s a strong play on paper, but his new, low-upside role leaves us with a scenario where he is best utilized in game stacks. That is not likely to be the way he is used by the field this week (I expect heavy one-off ownership on Ridley).
DAVANTE ADAMS:
Restrictive chalk. Based on the makeup of this slate, I honestly can’t see a situation where DA garners heavy ownership, but the people who are paid to project ownership disagree. Adams is currently projected to carry top three ownership at the wide receiver position against the team allowing the most points over expectation in the league. With Adams’ receiving profile this season, in a game where the Packers are instilled as heavy favorites, it leaves a lot to be desired for me, personally. Adams is best utilized when we can project him for increased volume in a moderate aDOT role. Can he hit on nine to 11 targets? Sure, he’s one of the best receivers in the game! Will I miss it if he does? Yup.
MIKE GESICKI:
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Ah, the second member of this game to make an appearance here. Overall, this game environment is going to be under-owned, but what ownership does flow into the Falcons/Dolphins game is likeliest to flow through Calvin Ridley and Mike Gesicki. Keep an eye on the multitude of game-time decisions from the Dolphins, which is likely to have a massive input to the chances of this game truly blowing up.
TRAVIS KELCE:
Restrictive chalk. I’ll get into this one further below, as we have a significant amount of pricing psychology associated with Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce this week.
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate.
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.
The Grid ::
Explained>>>>
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”
Blue Chips
:: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Bonuses
:: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Angles Pod
If You’re A Subscriber…
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Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).
There are a number of really good offenses in soft matchups this week, but the Chiefs are the only “really good offense” that will be facing a soft matchup in a game that is expected to remain competitive throughout. I’ll be doing some unique things with most of my rosters this week (see below), but I expect to have a few rosters anchored by Mahomes.
It should go without saying, but Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are the top stacking partners with Mahomes. I will have one or the other on each Mahomes build, and I will also be looking for ways to play one or the other on most of the rosters I build this week. Salary is pretty tight on this slate; but alongside the other two Blue Chips, Hill and Kelce are guys I will be looking to make sure I have exposure to this week.
Welcome to The Oracle! :: The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS!
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
Week 7 Topics
1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?
1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?
The Question ::
A weekly staple of The Oracle :: In no more than two or three sentences, tell us what makes this slate particularly unique.
The Answers ::
JM >>
There are only 20 teams on this slate (which means there are 12 teams missing), and yet, nine of the bottom-10 teams in “points allowed per game” will be taking the field (in order, from worst to “less-worse” :: Washington // Atlanta // Giants // Miami // Kansas City // Houston // Detroit // Tennessee // Philadelphia). Even more wild :: four of the eight highest-scoring offenses on the year (Arizona // Kansas City // Rams // Tennessee) are playing against defenses from that list. Multiple teams should score 30+ points this weekend…and as we’ve explored, our best bet for 30+ point fantasy scores is often to target teams that have a shot at scoring 30+ points. With so many good offenses and marquee names in obviously good spots, we should expect a decent amount of high-owned production this week, creating a really interesting week to play around with from a strategy, “best path to first place” perspective.
Xandamere >>
A couple of things stand out:
It’s a week with one clear best game. Only two games on the main slate have a total over 50, but one is Lions/Rams where the Rams are favored by 15 points (lol). The other is Chiefs/Titans, which has a 57.5 point total (!!) and while the Chiefs are favored, Vegas isn’t projecting a blowout.
There are several other really great offenses with high totals but in blowout spots (Rams, Cards, Bucs). Personally I don’t put much weight into blowouts in the NFL, but the field can sometimes shy away, which could be advantageous.
There are two other games that stand out as possibilities for fantasy goodness to me, which are Falcons/Dolphins and Eagles/Raiders (with the former being a better fantasy environment, as those offenses are more concentrated, but the latter likely coming with less ownership).
Sonic >>
The Vegas totals/spreads are configured in a way we don’t see very often. It feels kind of trappy for me in MME because of the way ownership appears to be shaking out. The WRs that have good ceilings in the sexy games all have either high prices or high ownership. The exception being the Cardinals who are so spread out it makes one consider running Kyler Murray naked, which really isn’t optimal in big tournaments. I’m really interested to see if some additional value pops up before lock because right now it appears Derrick Henry will actually be held in check by the lack of credible pay down options at other positions. Rashod Bateman week so far I guess.
Hilow >>
Despite there being multiple potential blowout games, there are a select couple of favorites in those games that stand out above the rest as far as attackable game environment goes. The Rams get an opponent that has shown extreme second half aggression when trailing (additional offensive plays and possessions), while the Buccaneers are missing two of their primary pass-catchers in Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Both of these spots stand out to me as carrying additional floor when compared to the other two “blowout games.” Additionally, although we have one clear smash game environment at our disposal this week (KC @ TEN), we have a game that is likely to fly under the radar in ATL @ MIA.
Larejo >>
There seem to be two paths of attack becoming more defined by the day this week. The crowd who will go all in on the high-scoring offenses (Bucs, Rams, etc.) because they out produced against expectations last week and had multiple tournament winners. And then the crowd who will target the low spread games with the potential for a back and forth affair. My lean is toward the latter (PHI/LV, ATL/MIA, WAS/GB) but the right answer for this week is probably to have exposure to both game environment categories.
MJohnson >>
It is rare to have a slate with so many elite spots, not just for teams but also for individuals. The top four individual non-QB plays on the slate are very clearly Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and Tyreek Hill. All four of them have incredible usage, matchups, and game/team environments. Usually the premium players on a slate consist of a couple players in these clear “smash” spots and others who are top end players but have something working against them (weather, game environment, matchup) that will separate the “best plays” from this range. This week, all four of the players I mentioned are in spots where it would be truly shocking for them to fail and the spots are also set-up so well that it is highly unlikely that none of them posts a “had to have it” score. Also, the fact that there are four of them makes it likely that ownership for all of them is lower than we would normally expect in spots like this. Usually, a “balanced build” that avoids those popular players is a great way to differentiate, but this week I think it is so likely that at least one or two of these guys goes for 35+ that it makes fading the group entirely much less feasible.
Majesstik >>
The unique thing that stood out to me when reviewing the main slate was the amount of lopsided games Vegas has set the spread on. Of the three teams currently showing a 30+ point total, the Chiefs are slated for the most competitive game in the eyes of the bookmakers. This game seems pretty straight forward so it’ll be a matter of differentiating elsewhere if dipping into it. For that, I think we need to explore some of the games with decent totals and tighter spreads where the game environment will be fierce the entire way and look for one of those games that could pop. The Eagles at Raiders is one that stands out for me.
2. Six teams standing out from the pack
The Question ::
Game Environments, Week 7: It should be pretty apparent where the field will gravitate this week, as there are six teams that pretty clearly stand out from the pack. The Chiefs and Titans are playing one another, which pits two teams that A) rank bottom 10 in points allowed per game, and B) rank top eight in points scored per game. The Packers are playing at home against a Washington Football Team defense that has allowed the most points per game in the league. The Cardinals are playing at home against the tanking Texans. The Rams are playing at home against the talent-deficient Lions. And the Bucs are playing at home against a middling Bears team. Are there any of these spots that stand out to you more than others? And are there any teams/games outside this group that you feel could provide sneaky paths to tournament-winning upside?
Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week!
We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
Willing To Lose
By Larejo123
Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
“Escape competition through authenticity” – Naval Ravikant
Anyone who read my MLB articles this summer knows that one of my favorite recent reads was TheAlmanack of Naval Ravikant. If you’re not familiar with Naval (he’s a tremendous follow on Twitter), he’s an incredibly successful entrepreneur, angel investor, and even more so just an essentially original thinker.
We often talk about how DFS is a game of competition. As JM says, “it’s not about how many fantasy points you score, it’s about paths to first place.” Well, how do we figure out what a path to first place looks like? Through informed original thinking. The reason why I subscribed to OWS in 2018 was because of how heavy the focus is on strategy and out-maneuvering “the field” in these DFS slates. OWS empowered me to understand, interpret, and make my own predictions about the upcoming slate. And I hope I can help you do that too. Let’s take a look at Naval’s quote again…escape competition through authenticity. What does he mean? In his words (I’m paraphrasing a bit), “if you are competing with others, don’t copy them. We’re all different as human beings. So be different.”
This slate is unique in so many ways. Think of the non-original ways the public will be building their lineups. They (we) start with Vegas totals (most of the time), look at on-paper matchups (i.e. defense vs. position), then salaries, and QB/WR stacks with a bring-back etc. It looks like we will see high ownership on many players who have already smashed this season: Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson, Leonard Fournette, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Lamar Jackson, Brandin Cooks, and more. Almost all of those players are coming from the high-total offenses this week (with the exception of Arizona, more on them later). We can take advantage of this. We can accept some of this chalk into our lineups, and differentiate it in our own authentic ways. After all, one of my other favorite Naval-isms is, “predicting the future based on the past is a lousy approach.”
Eagles and Raiders Game Stack
Ownership projections are showing a wide range at the moment, but fortunately, one of the simplest ways to avoid ownership impacting your lineups is through a game stack. I really like this game for a few reasons. First, it fits comfortably in the Vegas range 45.5-50.5 for an underowned game environment. This game ranks as the 4th-highest total on Sunday’s main slate. The second reason I like this game is that, as Dustin noted in Edge Matchups, both of these teams are top-ten in pass play rate. And third is because of Allegiant Stadium, the field where this game will be played.
If we take out the Raiders last home game against an ineffective, inexperienced Justin Fields (which ended 20-9), Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas has been playing Superdome-esque since its inception in 2020. Here is the amount of total combined points put up in eleven Raiders home games over the past two seasons (working from most recent):
● 29 :: Bears :: Week 5
● 59 :: Dolphins :: Week 3
● 60 :: Ravens :: Week 1
● 51 :: Dolphins :: Week 15
● 57 :: Chargers :: Week 14
● 71 :: Colts :: Week 13
● 66 :: Chiefs :: Week 10
● 49 :: Broncos :: Week 9
● 65 :: Buccaneers :: Week 6
● 53 :: Bills :: Week 4
● 58 :: Saints :: Week 2
Again, if we take out the Fields game a few weeks ago, the lowest total is 49. I personally did not bet the over on all Raiders home games last season but it’s safe to say that was profitable. 11 games and an average of 56 points (including the Bears game), with an average of 58.9 if we remove the most recent matchup.
Coming back to Sunday’s game with the Eagles, the question becomes can this game be a shootout? Well, based on stadium history alone, yes it can. Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr are both playable, with Hurts of course having the higher floor based on his rushing abilities. Miles Sanders (quietly 75/83% of offensive snaps last two weeks) and Josh Jacobs (four touchdowns in four games this season) are also viable. On the outside, if Dallas Goedert comes back, he’ll play all the snaps he can handle to take up a majority of the target share with DeVonta Smith. Darren Waller is probably the best floating play, albeit with his higher salary (remember how much we were all salivating over Travis Kelce in this same matchup in Week 4?). I will also have some Henry Ruggs and Quez Watkins. Stack this game up.
Joe Burrow + Bengals WR + Marquise Brown + Mark Andrews
Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play
OWS MME DEGENS! Welcome to Week 7’s Player Pool!
It’s another juicy week for Late Swap. I’ve made 6 different template lineups and cloned them all 3-5x.
One one side, I played RB/RB/TE/FLEX/DST from the late games and then tried a few different stacks from the early games.
One the other side, I played RB/RB/WR/DST from the early games and left those open for QB stacks from the late games. Praying for at least one of those templates to smash early so I can have some fun switching things around before 1pm lock here on the west coast.
See you in the gameday-chat, you freaking weirdos.
Access my Personal Prop Betting Sheet Saturday Nights for all the +EV Prop Bets I’ve found leading up to lock, updated throughout Sunday Afternoons as late news is announced.
There won’t be many (any?) weeks in the NFL where a team runs 82 plays on offense and fails to throw it 35 times. Week 6 produced a perfect storm, and quite the viewing experience from an NFL fan standpoint, for the Dallas Cowboys to return to their old ways and have Dak Prescott win them an important game versus the New England Patriots to keep pace in the NFC. Dak finished this OT thriller with 51 pass attempts, his most since his Week 1 total of 58, while the Cowboys running game produced 31 carries for 122 scoreless yards. The New England Patriots scored first, and took a 14-10 lead into the half, leading to a game script that had this bet looking dead before the first quarter was completed.
J.D. McKissic: Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
Result: Win (65 Receiving Yards)
If you were around late in the week on OWS, you would have had a hard time not digging into J.D. McKissic and the potential for his best game of the season versus the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6. Not only was he a great play on Draftkings with his PPR upside, but he smashed many of his props just after halftime, ensuring a profitable day for his backers in the betting streets. While Antonio Gibson did aggravate his ongoing shin injury, something that will continue to be an issue until the Washington Football Team gives him an opportunity for a multi-week rest period, JDM’s role was set to increase with this game script regardless. JDM joins a growing list of individual backs to top 50 receiving yards against the KC defense and could take on a larger role going forward if Gibson’s shin injury continues to linger as he managed an impressive 45 rushing yards on eight attempts (5.6 YPC).
Chuba Hubbard: Over 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Result: Loss (65 Total Yards)
Chuba Hubbard was able to hold his own on the ground this week, rushing 16 times for 61 yards (3.8 YPC) and a touchdown, but was unable to produce much on his three targets, catching one for four yards. The 17 total touches were a significant drop from last week’s 29 opportunities in a game Sam Darnold, as well as the Carolina Panthers offense as a whole, struggled to move the ball consistently. Darnold finished 17/41 for just over 200 yards with four sacks allowed, causing the Panthers to stall on offense routinely. The Carolina wide receivers carry much of the blame, dropping numerous passes throughout, leaving the Panthers in long down and distance situations all game. After the game, the Carolina coaching staff talked up Hubbard’s role moving forward, with head coach Matt Rhule wanting to “redefine who we are” on offense, committing more strongly to the run game. With Christian McCaffery’s long-term status unknown following his placement on IR, Hubbard’s role could continue to expand moving forward.
Personal Player Props Bet Week 6
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
2021: +19.05 Units
All of my Personal Player Prop Bets are added Saturday Night and updated through Sunday Morning. I strictly bet player props, avoiding sides and totals, using my previously allocated Cash Game Bankroll. While Sportsbooks are gradually improving their Prop Bet Market with added Prop Bet content being produced in 2021, I believe there is and will continue to be strong +EV Bets available each week, with a noticeable edge when compared to DFS Cash Games. There will be no better time to make the switch from DFS Cash to the Prop Betting market. DM me through Discord (Jreasy) or on Twitter (@FriendofFantasy) with any questions on how to get started. Best of all, OWS has some great promo partnerships with numerous books with generous deposit bonuses for first-time users!
Week 7 Edge Bets
Matt Ryan Over (34.5) Pass Attempts
Book: DraftKings (-120), Bet Rivers (-114)
Date Available: October 22nd
Tua Tagovailoa Over (33.5) Pass Attempts
Book: DraftKings (-120), Bet Rivers (-109)
Date Available: October 22nd
From Hilow:
“Miami leads the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 69%, while Atlanta ranks eighth in the league at 64%.”
“We’re liable to see 135+ offensive plays run from scrimmage here, which gives this game environment sneaky fantasy appeal.”
“These offenses combine for under 44 rush attempts per game.”
“Now consider the potential for this game environment to really open up and we’re left with the potential for 85+ combined pass attempts.”
“On the season, Atlanta ranks eighth in both situation-neutral pace of play and situation-neutral pass rate, with quarterback Matt Ryan attempting 35 or more passes in every game this year (with three games above 42). The Falcons have pass attempts of 35, 36, 42, 45, and 46 on the season.”
“Miami has attempted 39 or more passes in four of their previous five games, the bulk of which came with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback (and they attempted 48 passes in Tua’s first game back from injury last week).”
”The likeliest game flow has this game playing close throughout, with each team tilting their offensive game plans towards an aerial attack.”
Reasy’s Reasoning:
I feel like I could have just quoted Hilow’s entire Edge writeup here and left it at that. Whatever metric you look at to predict a high pass attempt game from a quarterback, you can find it here and, to make it twice as fun, BOTH quarterbacks have plenty of them! Both the Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons like to play fast and pass at a high rate. Their games routinely result in high play totals. They have multiple pass catchers and spread the ball around. They both have running backs that can be used in the passing game. Both teams have returning playmakers on offense, while the Dolphins defense has multiple questionable tags in their secondary. Surely, Tua will be motivated to keep the Deshaun Watson trade rumors at bay and build upon a strong showing across the pond in Week 6. With a spread of just 2.5, we can expect a back and forth affair, with both teams set up strongly to succeed with their desired game plans. Giddy up.
*Note: The passing attempts prop for Tua Tagovailoa stayed steady at 33.5 for a couple of hours after being released before the masses hit the number in waves (getting as high as 36.5). It has settled around 35.5, and I still think that is viable but not a smash.
With more content being produced for props than ever before, we are seeing lines move very fast once posted on other sites and discords. Starting next week, EdgeBet props will be posted in discord as they are found and written up, making them as actionable as possible moving forward. The Prop Betting landscape is changing quickly, but in my opinion, remains the most +EV source in our industry.
Justin Fields Over 217.5 Passing Yards
Book: BET MGM (-117)
Date Available: October 22nd
From MJohnson86:
“The Bears are showing signs of life offensively and the maturation of Justin Fields is growing by the week, with the staff putting more on his plate and showing more trust each game.”
“Actually watching the game and understanding the box score shows us that the Bears are starting to show trust in Fields earlier in games and that he is getting more comfortable pushing the ball down the field and playing in situations where the team needs to be more aggressive late.”
“Don’t get it twisted, the Bears certainly do want to be able to run the ball and have that as part of their identity. However, this week, against the Bucs top-5 run defense, that won’t be much of an option.”
“Opponents barely even try to run on the Bucs — the last three weeks their opponents have had a combined 22 running back carries (six for the Patriots, seven for the Dolphins, nine for the Eagles).”
“Last week’s play-calling and usage suggests they are trusting Fields more and will be more likely to attack the Bucs beat-up secondary than most people will be expecting.”
“The Bears will need to be more aggressive and pass-heavy than their previous tendencies, which should lead to a slightly faster pace and more play volume.”
“I wrote up the Bears passing offense in last week’s NFL Edge and I am even more on board in Week 7. Justin Fields set career highs in pass attempts (27) and rushing yards (43) in last week’s loss to the Packers.”
“All things considered, he dropped back to pass about 40 times last week and I would expect something in that range or higher in this matchup against a more explosive and faster-paced Bucs offense that also makes teams move away from their running game like the plague.”
From JM:
“This has me somewhat interested in Justin Fields (if he throws 33ish passes and rushes five to seven times, he could easily go for 250-2 through the air and 45-1 on the ground.”
Reasy’s Reasoning:
It’s always better to be early, right? On paper, a lot of boxes are checked for Fields to have the best statistical day of his young career. I urge you to read The Edge write-up for this game, if you haven’t already, as it contains a great “beyond the boxscore” breakdown of a possible change in the Chicago Bears trust level and play-calling tendencies with Fields at the helm. Tampa Bay opponents are passing the ball at a league-high rate. The Bucs secondary is dealing with multiple injuries, with Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis on IR, and Richard Sherman ruled out for Week 7. We can expect the Bears to be playing from behind for most, if not all of this game, and can comfortably project a career-high in passing attempts this week for the young signal-caller. Jimmy Graham has been placed on the Covid-IR this week, opening up extra snaps for pass-catching tight end Cole Kmet. While it may not be pretty, Fields has an excellent chance to set career highs statistically across the board.
Good luck this week! Be sure to check out my personal player props bet for a wide range of +EV Bets, as well as check the Discord early next week for the EdgeBets in real-time!
ActionLabs Props Tool
One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.
Thanks for hanging out with us in The Scroll this week!
We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
