Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

Happy Thursday…and how is it Week 7 already?!

Sixty-seven percent. That’s the number to remember this week. We’ve completed six weeks of NFL football this season, which serves as a mere 33% of the total weeks on the schedule. As much as the injuries are piling up, and the action-packed slates behind us feel like they happened long ago, we are still looking at 67% of the season ahead of us (not counting playoff weeks). Whether you’ve had success, or are still knocking on the door, your best weeks are almost certainly still ahead of you.

Around the Week 5(ish) timeframe is when many DFS players start to fade. When NFL teams played 16 games, it was simple to break the season into quarters. Now that the season consists of 17 games, it’s a bit more difficult, but Week 5 is the historical breakpoint after “quarter 1”, and is a time when we all transition into a new stage of the season. If you think about the variables in each quarter, our motivation and excitement will vary dramatically between each. 

Prior to Week 1 kickoff, we typically reach peak excitement for not only watching NFL football again and building lineups, but also for learning about the stories that will greet us for the next four months. We learn, react, decide what to do with small samples of information, and keep on keeping on. Then we get a few more weeks into the season, the sample sizes grow a bit more significant, and we all feel more comfortable with what we are seeing and tracking (e.g., “this team is good,” “this player stinks,” “what this coach is doing,” etc.).

If you’re following along, then Week 7 throws us into roughly the middle of the second quarter of the season. By now, even the best of content providers are facing some attrition. It’s not as exciting as the first few weeks, but these middle quarters are among the weeks (4/5-12) where staying engaged, motivated, and trusting your process takes hold. Depending on what tournaments you play weekly, you’ll always find yourself losing to people who have a little bit of luck, but over a longer sample, we trust in our ability to analyze the games through unique angles, sift through the useless, and non-useless NFL news cycles, navigate the seemingly never-ending injuries (and now trades!), and build lineups that can win.

Translation :: Fight the urge to feel overwhelmed this week. There’s a lot going on in the NFL streets, but staying consistent in your approach, learning more each week, and tinkering with the process will lead to success. 

(I wrote a short course on OWS called Predicting the Present, which anchors on navigating this overwhelming feeling by sticking to your current knowledge. It costs just $9 or 19 Edge Points. It takes 30 minutes or less to read. Your move.)

Week 7 :: Angles

Favorites went 12-2 against the spread in Week 6, with the Browns and Commanders the only underdogs to cover. Of course, the week that I write about visioning a one-game sample through a season-long lens (embracing variance), this is the outcome. However, I don’t bring this up to whine, but rather to mention how important this fact will be for analyzing games this week. Collectively, recency bias will lead us (and most of our competitors) toward a feeling of siding with the dominant, better teams in Week 7.

As for this Week 7 Sunday slate, we have just two teams on bye this week: Chicago and Dallas. Missing either of these teams doesn’t do much for me (does it do anything for you?). Similarly, we have an injury-riddled, non-exciting (sorry!) Denver / New Orleans Thursday night matchup, an early Sunday in London with the Patriots and Jags, the juggernaut of the NFL news cycles, the Jets, and Steelers on Sunday night, and two Monday night matchups which actually do deprive us from some elite offenses in the Ravens and Buccaneers, along with the Chargers and Cardinals. For those tracking at home, this is a slate where you may only feel like you are missing Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Caleb Williams, and Baker Mayfield doubles.

What we do have is a 10-gamer on tap, with as many as five games expected to climb over 47 combined points, and one team in particular, the Washington Commanders, sporting the largest single game implied total on the season at 29.5! This slate also features the Super Bowl LVIII rematch between the undefeated Chiefs and the 49ers, a game which (not as you’d expect) somehow is coming in as the fifth-highest scoring game on the slate. I already love Week 7.

Game totals are not everything, and sometimes can be misleading, but there seems to be a distinct delineation this week on the must-have games and the underwhelming ones, with five games expected above 47, and five games below 43.5. Again, just a data nugget, but an interesting one. Let’s start with the five at the top:

Carolina (21.5) at Washington (29.5): The Panthers have seemingly rolled over in multiple weeks this season, but they did put up 60 points combined in Weeks 3 and 4 against the Raiders’ and Bengals’ defenses. We kind of know what to expect from the Commanders offense this week, as the Carolina defense doesn’t seem to offer much resistance, so the fulcrum here is how the Panthers can do vs. Dan Quinn’s Washington D. They ceded 484 total yards to the Ravens offense just last week and now rank 30th in yards per play (just above Carolina). This game starts with Jayden Daniels, but it may really be about Andy Dalton.

Seattle (24.5) at Atlanta (27): I was close to typing the wrong totals for each team, which tells you that I fully expect both teams to have success on offense in this one. Kirk Cousins has left his Week 1 dud behind, throwing for 725 yards the past two weeks. He had the outlier 58-attempt night two Thursdays ago against Tampa Bay, but he’s been at 35 or less in the other four Falcons games. Seattle’s defense can be had on the ground, ranking fifth worst in rushing yards allowed, and interestingly enough, Seattle’s defense is third overall in pressure rate (barely behind Kansas City and Minnesota). Atlanta should want to run in this game, but if they fall behind in a game script, it could spell bad news for Cousins.

Detroit (24.5) at Minnesota (26): Jared Goff against the blitz. You’ll hear this many times this week…let’s just say it’s not his thing. Minnesota is undefeated and Detroit is riding a three-game winning streak, scoring over 40 points in each of its last two games. The Lions are now down star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, which helps Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson. Jefferson, in particular, has averaged 134 receiving yards and eight catches in his eight career games against Detroit. AVERAGED. The Lions are high-flying at the moment, and the spread is begging us to take them with the points, but understand there’s a wide range of outcomes in this divisional matchup.

Houston (22.5) at Green Bay (25): This game feels the most straightforward of this “top five” so far. Two offenses settled into their schemes, coping with injuries, with quarterbacks who get the ball downfield, with Stroud and Love ranking in the top six in air yards per completion (Love is fourth, Stroud sixth). Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, and Joe Mixon made up for the void of Nico Collins last week. Can they repeat the performance? The Packers have put up at least 24 points in every Love start this season, and while the Texans’ defense seems strong on paper, they also rank T-2 in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed through six games.

Kansas City (23) at San Francisco (24.5): The Fighting Patrick Mahomes traveling to Santa Clara in a Super Bowl rematch that will be a great watch. The public wanted to be out on the Chiefs in their Monday Night Football matchup with the Saints, but New Orleans threw a wrench in that. Now the sentiment is yet again, don’t bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid. My bold prediction this week: One of the Chiefs or Vikings will lose. If the 49ers can sustain their health and do so on their seventh-round QB and third-string running back, we’ll all likely be singing their praises as NFC front-runners yet again. Super Bowl 58 ended 25-22 in overtime with muted offensive performances. The Chiefs’ defense has played like a top-three unit all season.

Among the other five games, some wrap-up thoughts…Buffalo will be expected to roll over Tennessee, but the Titans’ defense has been their (only?) strength this season // Cleveland has played Cincinnati well recently, and this version of the Browns doesn’t inspire confidence // Dolphins and Colts would be way more fun with Tua and Richardson, and we may get Richardson back, but it’s tough to expect fireworks // It’s Saquon Barkley revenge week, but if Philadelphia loses to the Giants, IMO they may be looking for a new head coach and that may be the biggest storyline // Do the post-Davante Adams Raiders get a new-WR-room bounce in L.A., and is the Rams’ 25-point implied total an anticipation of getting Cooper Kupp back?

There are always questions. There are always answers. Favorites dominated last week, but this is a fresh slate, with unrelated outcomes on tap.

Get out to the site this weekend, build those lineups in the Bink Machine, jump into Discord if you aren’t there already, and we will see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!

~Larejo 

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

Pro Tip: For optimal viewing, use the “download” button

Learn how to Use The Workbook

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

Another slate, another difficult puzzle to piece together amidst tight player pricing. Such is NFL DFS life in 2024, baby! Adjust or get left behind. Beyond the “macro 2024 view” of this slate, we are presented with another slate of overconfidence and borderline arrogance by the field.

Check this out. The wide receiver with the highest ownership expectation has gone over just 3x of his Week 7 salary once in six games this season (no spoilers, he’s listed below). The tight end with the highest expected ownership has seen over five targets twice in five games, playing for a team with a modest 20.9% tight end target rate against an opponent allowing the 10^th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (no spoilers, damnit!). There’s a running back expected to be on over 25% of rosters this weekend playing for the team with the lowest Vegas implied team total on the slate (15.75, lolz). The combined expected ownership on the top five Falcons skill position players exceeds 80%. Do you know how many 4x games those five players have at their respective Week 7 salaries this season? Bijan Robinson – zero. Drake London – one. Darnell Mooney – one. Ray-Ray McCloud – zero. Kyle Pitts – zero. And all it took for those two games to pop up was 58 Kirk Cousins pass attempts in an overtime game in which he set career-highs in multiple categories.

So, you ask me what the macro view of this slate is, and I will respond with overconfidence and borderline arrogance by the field. When the field expresses too much confidence in fragile plays, it becomes that much easier to generate meaningful leverage in a +EV manner. Welcome to Week 7.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

CHUBA HUBBARD

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Chuba Hubbard projects as the top point-per-dollar play on the slate on both major sites this weekend. His usage has been phenomenal for the past month, he is seeing enough targets to offset the need for multiple scores, and he is averaging over 100 yards on the ground in his previous four games. Oh yeah, and the pure rushing matchup is the best on the slate. What’s not to love?

DRAKE LONDON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Drake London has seen his role in the Atlanta offense shifted this season, playing a career-high rate out of the slot in a demi-Cooper Kupp role under Zac Robinson. That said, this archetype of player requires immense volume to return viable GPP scores (9.9 aDOT) and the Falcons have attempted more than 30 passes in just two of six games and more than 35 passes just once this season. London has gone over just 3x once in six games, leaving him as one of the most overpriced pass-catchers on the slate. I’m completely fine, personally, betting against that profile.

TONY POLLARD

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I mean, we could copy-paste what we wrote about Tony Pollard last week here. He’s a “fine” play, albeit one that comes with more paths to failure than the field will likely be honest with this week. Just please keep in mind that Pollard is a running back playing for a team with the lowest Vegas implied team total on the slate.

KYREN WILLIAMS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. As we’ve seen this season, Kyren Williams has one of the most valuable roles of any running back in the league, leading the league in red zone opportunities (32, or a ridiculous 6.4 per game) and snap share (86.2%). If the Rams are succeeding against an inferior opponent, it is highly likely that a significant portion of that production is flowing through Williams.

COLBY PARKINSON

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Really? Really, guys? Okay, so he saw 13 targets last week against the tight-end funnel Green Bay defense. So what! You know which team is 10th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season with only 7.0 per game? The Raiders. Do you know who is likely to come back this week? Cooper Kupp. No, thank you, sir and ma’am. Get your value elsewhere you filthy animals.

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

---

OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

---

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

---

Sunday Morning Update

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.3K

Andy Dalton
Chuba Hubbard
Jeremy McNichols
Diontae Johnson
Xavier Legette
Tim Patrick
Brock Bowers
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Giants

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

---

Blue Chips

None

I don’t have any True Blue Chips this week (though all four players listed in the Light Blue section are closer to true Blue Chip status than is often the case for those guys; said differently, my Light Blues this week are all on the Blue // Light Blue border)

“Light Blue” Chips

---

Build-Arounds

---

Building Blocks

“Minnesota Penthouse”

Amon-Ra St. Brown + Justin Jefferson

Story:

“Pass-heavy”

Why It Works:

The Vikings have controlled all five of their games so far — jumping out to a huge lead each time — and as such, they have yet to have a game with heavy passing volume (31 or fewer attempts in all five games; 28 or fewer in four of five). But this is still Kevin O’Connell, who likes to build his offense through the air, and the Vikings’ top-four ranking in pass rate over expectation reminds us that this team likes to throw. Now they are taking on a Lions defense that faces the second highest opponent pass play rate in the league, and that should be able to keep pace (or even control this game from in front).

The Lions, of course, prefer to build their offense through the ground game, but the only team in the NFL forcing a higher opponent pass play rate than Detroit is Minnesota (with both teams ranking top four in opponent pass rate over expectation as well). In short, both teams should be passing more than normal in this one.

In two games between these teams last year, ARSB and JJ combined for DK scores of 62.0 and 68.1. As we always say: “if you can get 30 points from a player, it often doesn’t matter what you paid for it.” The same goes for averaging 30+ points between two players.

How It Works:

The best part about this pairing is that A) if one of these guys is succeeding, it elevates the chances of the other guy succeeding, and B) both guys are expensive, which should lead to very low combinatorial ownership here. If both of these guys hit, ARSB rosters are unlikely to benefit from the JJ score, and JJ rosters are unlikely to benefit from the ARSB score. Positioning yourself to benefit from both can create clear opportunity for separation from the field.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“New York Penthouse”

---

Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

West West West West

Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers are sure to be two of the more popular tight ends on this slate.

Assuming we get JuJu Smith-Schuster playing and Jakobi Meyers missing, JuJu and Tre Tucker are sure to be two of the more popular value plays on this slate.

The idea here, then, is to go out of my way to pair JuJu with Bowers and with Tucker, and to go out of my way to pair Tucker with Kelce and JuJu. I’ll also then go out of my way to pair Kelce and Bowers together.

If Jakobi Meyers plays, he can step in for Tucker in these rules (while Tucker can also be included in this approach, albeit at a lower rate of exposure than he would be if Meyers were out).

If JuJu misses, I probably won’t replace him with another Kansas City wideout, and this overall strategy angle will lose some value, but I’ll still aim to have some “Raiders WR” with Kelce.

The idea here is as follows ::

1. If JuJu hits, he’s potentially taking away some points from Kelce, giving Bowers a clearer path to a first-place finish and making JuJu + Bowers rosters +EV.
2. If Tucker (or Jakobi) hits, he’s potentially taking away some points from Bowers, giving Kelce a clearer path to a first-place finish and making Tucker (or Jakobi) + Kelce rosters +EV.
3. If someone is using JuJu as their salary-saver, they probably aren’t using Tucker as their salary-saver (or vice versa), which means that if JuJu and Tucker both hit, you’ll be getting inexpensive points that most of the JuJu/Tucker rosters won’t be getting.
4. If someone is using Kelce as their tight end, they probably aren’t using Bowers in the FLEX (or vice versa), which means that if Kelce and Bowers both hit, you’ll be getting points that most of the Kelce/Bowers rosters won’t be getting.

Because we’re waiting on news here, I’m not building out these rules on my end quite yet, so there are no screenshots for these ones. But whether you’re using the Bink Machine or hand-building, this is a strategy angle worth seriously considering this week.

Bonuses

---

If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Sam Darnold (with trail bets on Goff) || Andy Dalton || Daniel Jones || Geno Smith (with DK & JSN; I’ll likely isolate these WRs on Geno rosters and otherwise largely avoid them) || Anthony Richardson

RB ::

---

A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

---

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback ::

• Anthony Richardson – Finally back in the lineup, Richardson still has a massive ceiling and is in a great matchup at home this week. 200 yards and 2 TDs passing, with 60 yards and a TD rushing. That stat line would be 28 fantasy points and is not by any means an outlandish ask, as all it will take is the Colts scoring 3 or 4 TDs with Richardson being heavily involved in them. Considering Jonathan Taylor will miss this game, that’s not a crazy bet at all. I love Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels this week as well, but their salaries and ownership will be much higher while the stat line laid out above is around what we should expect from each of them in their spots. On a week where we are seeking value without sacrificing ceiling, Richardson stands out like a sore thumb.
• Kirk Cousins – Cousins stands out for the spot he is in as well as the ease with which we can build lineups around him. Seattle’s secondary is depleted and stacking Cousins with 2 of London // Mooney // Pitts is a high-floor, high-ceiling way to start lineups that doesn’t deplete your lineup of remaining salary.
• Andy Dalton – Similar to Cousins, the stacking partners for Dalton are clear and this should be a high-volume spot. Dalton has been great in the first halves of games this year, we just need him to give us a full game for production and we are in business.
• Salary Savers: Deshaun Watson, Tyler Huntley, Daniel Jones, Aidan O’Connell

Running Back :: 

• Chuba Hubbard – The Panthers continue to give Hubbard a massive workload and his floor/ceiling combination is terrific for a reasonable salary.
• Chase Brown – Brown has quietly taken over as the lead RB in Cincinnati and the Bengals offense is capable of posting big numbers. Facing Deshaun Watson, the Bengals could have short fields and ample scoring opportunities.
• Kenneth Walker – Walker is essentially game-script proof and has electric, game-breaking talent. 
• Kareem Hunt – The lead running back for Kansas City and reasonably priced, Hunt is coming off a game where he touched the ball 28 times. 
• Kyren Williams – Najee Harris disappointed for consecutive weeks as the lead RB for the Steelers before smashing the Raiders. Kyren has already been playing great and has slate-breaking upside in this spot.
• Saquon Barkley – If you can find the salary, Barkley is in a great spot to stick it to his former team. Projection systems can’t account for the fact that the Eagles may go out of their way to give him the scoring chances purely out of spite, especially if the game is in hand. Perhaps my favorite way to play Barkley is paired with Kyren Williams and playing a cheap game stack alongside them.
• Salary Savers: Trey Sermon, Tyler Allgeier, Emanuel Wilson, Alexander Mattison, Blake Corum

Wide Receiver :: 

---

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Puke Spot

In poker, a “puke spot” is when you’re stuck in a frustrating situation where every decision feels wrong, and that’s exactly what this DFS slate feels like. All the plays with a reasonable floor and ceiling are priced up, and we’re lacking cheap value to the point where a $4,000 JuJu Smith-Schuster might end up being chalk—yeah, I can feel my sushi coming up as I type this. It’s one of those slates where you’re forced to choose between overpaying for safe plays or scraping the bottom of the barrel for punts, and all of it feels gross—but we’re here to spend our money chasing first place, or die trying.

The good news? A good portion of the field isn’t going to know how to manage this. There’ll be plenty of top-down builds featuring double punt tight ends or, gasp, Elijah Moore. But here’s the thing—we’re focused on the $10 Milly Maker this week. To leapfrog a couple hundred thousand rosters, we’re gonna need to get freaky. And if there’s one thing I specialize in, it’s the off-the-wall, ‘wait, did he just do that?!’ kind of play. LFG!

These are contrarian moves I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Sometimes we’ll miss, but the ones that do hit will help us lap the field.

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

Austin Ekeler/Xavier Legette

Here’s a simple step-by-step formula we use to identify good tournament plays in large-field MME:

1. Locate the highest game total on the slate.
2. Cross off the chalk.
3. Embrace the chaos—football is wild, and touchdowns or garbage-time points can pop out of nowhere.

Do you know which Commanders player (outside of Jayden Daniels) has the most red zone touches over the last two weeks? Of course, it’s Ekeler. Why else would I lead with that question? And he’s projected at under 3% ownership, by the way.

I’m assuming Diontae Johnson suits up, and between him and Chuba Hubbard, we’re looking at close to 50% ownership. Both are great plays, but for leverage and diversification, I’m opting to play the touchdown variance game on some rosters and roll with rising rookie Legette, who’s sitting at just 2.7% projected ownership. We don’t root for injuries—no need for that bad karma, DFS is tough enough—but if Diontae can’t go the distance, Legette and fellow rookie Jalen Coker could get those high-volume, catch-up targets from Andy Dalton. 

The same goes for Brian Robinson Jr: should play, knees are fragile etc.  We all wish we were the time traveler who banked a million with Sean Tucker last week, so throwing in some Jeremy McNichols (no relation to Kristy) sprinkles should scratch that itch.

Jeremy McSprinkles?

With a game total of 51, there’s potential for fireworks. If you’re leaning toward a popular stack and chalky punts, find correlations like this one to create some differentiation in your build.

Malik Nabers/A.J. Brown (Or DeVonta Smith)

Nabers will grab his share of ownership, but I’ve seen where Daniel Jones looks when Malik is healthy, and I’m all in. Fifteen targets per game over his last three contests is crazy. His ownership projection at 14%? Totally fine by me, especially since I’m making a game environment bet and pairing him with one of the perennially under-owned Eagles wideouts. Median projections don’t know that I couldn’t care less if these guys give me 13 points or three. I’m here for when the eventual 30 burger hit.

Note: I’ve been hearing A.J. Brown’s name tossed around a lot this week, so I’ve got some steam concerns—hence the mention of DeVonta as a pivot.

Xavier Worthy/Deebo Samuel (or George Kittle)

This one is especially appealing on FanDuel, where players who can score in bunches, score from anywhere, and generate fantasy points efficiently hold extra value.

This is a scary game environment because of the plethora of weapons on the 49ers side and the lack of explosive plays we’ve seen from the Chiefs. 

Brock Purdy has an embarrassment of riches in terms of playmakers. The problem is, they’re all pricey, and it’s possible the scoring goes full Oprah mode—“You get a touchdown, you get a touchdown”—and no single player hits a tournament-winning score. However, with less than 2% ownership on FD, it’s worth taking a shot on one of Deebo, Kittle, or even Jordan Mason, hoping the touchdowns are more concentrated.

Coming off the bye week, Andy Reid likely spent time assessing his offense and focusing on creating more explosive plays. There’s no better time to put more responsibility on a rookie’s plate. And at just 0.5% pOWN, there’s no better time to roster Worthy.

Other Secondary Stacks I Like:

Stefon Diggs ($7700) 4% pOWN and Christian Watson ($4900) 3.3% pOWN

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• Week 7 has five top tier games in DET/MIN (50.5), HOU/GB (48), KC/SF (47), SEA/ATL (51), and CAR/WAS (51.5). All of these carry desirable totals.
• The middle tier has three games in MIA/IND (43.5), PHI/NYG (43), and LV/AR (43.5). All of these expected to produce a middling number of points.
• The bottom tier is only two games in CIN/CLE (41.5) and TEN/BUF (41). Both are expected to be low scoring.

Pawn – TE David Njoku ($4,100)

The Browns lost a ton of targets when they traded away Amari Cooper and someone is going to have to pick up the slack. All of Jerry Jeudy ($4,800), Elijah Moore ($3,200), Cedric Tillman ($3,000) and Njoku are underpriced for their opportunity. Moore/Tillman are the two cheapest viable players on the slate so they must be considered for salary purposes but I don’t see them being the guys who soak up all the extra work, leaving Jeudy and Njoku. There is a good chance one of Jeudy or Njoku gets double digit targets, and since Njoku is cheaper and plays TE, he gets the nod as this week’s pawn. The Bengals haven’t been good against TEs (25^th in DVOA against the position) and Njoku is priced cheap enough to offer some salary relief on a slate without many good value options. The Browns offense has been abysmal, which adds risk to Njoku but the Browns have one of the highest pass rates in the league and this is another game where they should be chasing points. I’m going to use Njoku as a one off to save salary and hope that he is the guy who ends up with most of the targets vacated by Cooper.

Knight – QB Daniel Jones ($5,400)

Is it time for Danny Dimes? We haven’t seen it yet but we all know Danny has the dimes in him. This week is tight on salary so going cheap at QB is one way to try and save a few bucks. Jones hasn’t been good this year but he is using his legs (22 rushing attempts over the past two weeks) which has given him some semblance of a floor. Malik Nabers ($7,500) looks ready to return, and that should give the Giants passing attack a boost. The Eagles have been cooked (32^nd in DVOA) by the WR1 and Nabers should be up to the task of continuing the trend. Nabers has been a target hog when healthy which makes him an easy choice as a stacking partner with Jones. Jones hasn’t been great but he always looks that way until he explodes. He hasn’t dropped his signature 30-point game yet this season so maybe this is the week. I’m going to use Jones throughout my lineups mostly stacked with Nabers and hope that we see Danny Dimes show up for the first time this season.

Bishop – RB Tony Pollard ($6,300)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 7 Topics

1. OMG……It’s Happening!!

2. Unique Slate

3. Hiding In Plain Sight

4. Value Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

---

1. OMG……It’s Happening!!

The Question ::

As has been discussed ad nauseam this season, scoring has been a bit hard to come by across the NFL. This week, however, we have a potentially fun situation setting up as we have a whopping FIVE games with totals between 47 and 51 points on a slate where there are only ten total main slate matchups. We have seen several weeks where lower than usual scores have won GPPs and there have been many weeks where only a handful of players had 20+ or 30+ point scores, which had a very specific effect on what types of rosters were finding their way to the top. 

With a smaller slate and a high percentage of them profiling as having potential to turn into high scoring affairs, what are your expectations for the winning scores needed for GPPs this week and does any of this have an effect on how you think about players or approach the slate?

The Answers ::

JM >>

“What you need in order to win a tourney,” of course, has to do with a number of factors. How many scores of 30+ points are available? How high are the highest scores on the slate? How high is the ownership on these 30+-pointers and high scores? And finally :: how possible (from a salary perspective) is it to access multiple of these 30+-point scores, and what do you have to sacrifice to get there?

There are a number of wideouts I could see going for 30+ (Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown, one of the Texans wideouts, Cooper Kupp if he plays and is actually healthy, possibly Jayden Reed, possibly one of the Seahawks, maybe even Diontae Johnson, and maybe someone random who we like for the upside but aren’t necessarily expecting 30+ points from); and while wide receiver looks like a better bet for 30+-pointers than running back to me this week, it wouldn’t surprise me if Saquon, Kyren, Walker, Mixon, or possibly Chuba got there from this position. I think there is an outside shot at Bowers going for 30+, and even in a tough matchup, there is outlier potential for a piece from the 49ers to post a tourney-winning score.

In terms of “what we might have to sacrifice to get there,” it really comes down to what the cheapies can do. Can JuJu or Tre Tucker go for 20 while opening salary elsewhere? Can one of the cheap tight ends go for 15 to 20? Can some random cheapie surprise with a big game?

It’s absolutely possible that we only get a couple games of 30+ points, and that we have to dip into underperforming value to access both of those at once. It’s also absolutely possible that we see a cheapie score 25+, and that five or six guys go for 30+, which would elevate the scoring ceiling across the board.

For me, the approach doesn’t really change. I’m always targeting players capable of scoring 30+ or significantly outperforming salary-based expectations, and I’m always targeting game environments capable of producing outlier scores. The rest is outside of my control, and the best I can do is position myself for “what will make me the most money if it happens.”

Xandamere >>

So, on the one hand, if we expect lower scores to be able to win tournaments this season that should tell us that we don’t need to chase only the highest-ceiling plays, right? It means cheaper punt guys who can go for 15-20 are more viable, for example, or even that we might be satisfied with 10-12 from a tight end who costs $3k. 

But, at least to me, that way lies madness.

Changing our thinking like that has a couple of downsides. First is that we have no way of knowing if we’re right – what if the week is higher scoring than Vegas predicts, and we’re left out in the cold because we built lower-ceiling “safer” lineups? Second, and more importantly, when you start dropping levels of rigor in your assessment process, it becomes really, really easy to start justifying playing weak plays. Falling into the “well, maaaaaaybe…” type of player/team evaluation. At least for me personally, that’s a bit of a slippery slope, and so I don’t want to change the process by which I select players for my player pool at all based on things like Vegas totals or player pricing (note: I am not perfect at this!).

Hilow >>

At first glance, the increased game totals would tend to shift our thinking to “higher scores are likely going to be required to win this week.” I would contend that the more correlative function between score needed to win and the slate is player pricing. When it’s so difficult to build rosters around those high game total games due to very few value options on the slate, we aren’t capable of building entirely around those spots. And with passing touchdowns still down, rushing rate up, field goals up, and red zone defense up, I think it’s likely we’re turning a corner in DFS to “210-215 if probably shipping tournaments most weeks” and away from the consistent 240+ scores of previous seasons.

As I’ve discussed in the past, my process generally starts in a vacuum while breaking down every game from a likeliest scenario standpoint. Then I start piecing the slate together to find the endgame goal (what is likely needed to win tournaments this week?). That process gives me a solid base from which to deviate through game theoretic reasoning as I look to exploit the field. On this particular slate, pricing is still so tight and we are still so starved for value that this question basically becomes “will there be a wide receiver priced below $5,000 to put up 25+ DK points while Grant Calcaterra (or some other cheap tight end) does the same at the same time.” I have no clue whether that will happen or not, but I do know that there are likely only to be so many 30+ fantasy scores this week (or 25+, for that matter) and I want as much access to those players as possible.

To that end, I truly don’t know if game totals or the presence (or absence) of value to go with the macro player pricing is more correlated to the score needed to ship tournaments, that’s just my read on the situation through experience (without doing an actual study on it).

---

2. Unique Slate

The Question ::

Bringing back a weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

The Props Insider team has helped the OWS Fam profit over $35,000 the last 2 years!! And the best part…

WE ALL GET TO WIN AT THE SAME TIME!

To get all the bets each week, subscribe with a Week, Month, or Year long Subscription

---

Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.

Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.

(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)

Kyle Pitts (ATL) UNDER 3.5 Receptions

Kyle Pitts has not been very involved in this offense. Yes, it’s a great matchup, but Pitts is averaging 4.6 targets per game and has caught more than 3 passes just once this season (and that was a game in which Kirk Cousins attempted an insane 58 pass attempts in an OT game). Overall Pitts has an incredibly weak 13.5% target share – which means if Cousins attempts 35 passes (which would be tied for his 2nd most of the season), we would project Pitts for 5 targets. Under 3.5 catches on 5 targets at modest juice is a great spot to attack.

The bet is good to: -130

Travis Kelce (KC) UNDER 6.5 Receptions

Look, Kelce’s a great player, but 6.5 catches is a big line for almost any NFL player. Given Mahomes’ decline in completion rate this season, Kelce not getting any younger, and a tough matchup against a 49ers defense that is solid all around (and especially so against tight ends), we’re willing to take the under here. Kelce’s had a couple of big games since Rashee Rice got injured but we expect that as the weeks go by the Chiefs will continue to develop Xavier Worthy’s route tree, adding more target competition.

The bet is good to: -125

Tucker Kraft (GB) UNDER 3.5 Receptions

Tucker Kraft has had a couple of big games but overall he’s a low-volume receiver in this offense, averaging 4.3 targets per game (in his big game in Week 5 as DFS chalk he only saw 5 targets…on which he caught 2 touchdowns). Even if Dontayvion Wicks misses (and we currently have him projected as being out), we don’t see that materially moving the needle on Kraft’s target expectation. We’re getting plus money to bet under 3.5 catches on a guy we think is unlikely to see more than 5 targets and that’s just too good of a spot to pass up.

The bet is good to: +100

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

The theme of this week is acceptance. 

I’ve been focusing lately on really doubling down on the fact that we are six full weeks into the NFL season, and it’s a great time to reflect that we know a ton about these teams already. We have plenty of the season left to go, but we have sound data now on how offenses will want to attack, how defenses will want to prevent, which players are being featured and hidden, etc. so embracing these facts is the path I want to personally take. For instance, when looking at the initial setup this past week, I noticed the five-five split of game totals above 47 and below 43.5 (of our ten-game slate). Based on this fact, if I am going to have a game stack (overstack), it will be from one of these top-five games. Similarly, we can look into certain elements of each matchup such as how the Vikings and Seahawks are likely to provide pressure on the QB (top-3 ranked in this category) yet again this week vs. Goff and Cousins. How does that alter the trajectory of their matchups?

The Panthers have given up four more rushing touchdowns than any other team on this slate (12 to Cleveland and Miami’s 8). Is it likely that will change with a trip to Washington and Jayden Daniels? Likely not. What about the Packers and Texans propensity to commit to the run, while continually trying to push the ball to a defense’s second and third levels, with Love and Stroud playing the way they like to? The Green Bay // Houston matchup carries all kinds of outcomes, but the expected big-play ability in this game may only be matched by the Lions // Vikings with Justin Jefferson’s dominance against man coverage.

I’m flinging a whole bunch at you right now, but the point is that we have signals on how to build rosters this week. When there is a collective signal, as there will be from here on out, it’s important to remember to not ignore ALL of it. Choose what angles you’ll embrace and decide HOW you will be different. The best lineups won’t go full left or full right of these signals (i.e. embrace or ignore) but will be the right mix of balancing low-owned players with chalk, ripe game environments with bland ones, and sprinkling the variance right on top. Search for the ceiling, think about your chess moves, acknowledge biases, envision your oracle, and be willing to lose to win! (see what I did there?!)

Texans // Packers Overstack with Dalton Schultz

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

Remember when Mahomes to Kelce was a thing in DFS? In 2022, people would start their lineups with this pairing and it paid off time after time. But, both have hit 30 points just once in the past two seasons, in Week 7 of 2023 when they combined for 75 points. In that week, the pairing could have cost 20k and would have been a good score. If they are capable of that score in 2024, this would be a good week to look for it. In my Recognizing Biases class, I use the Mahomes + Kelce stack as an example to explain how observer bias wants us to see and like what has already happened. You always saw Mahomes + Kelce connecting and scoring big, and it became a legit way to start a +EV lineup. 

One year later, our observer bias has us fading the Chiefs QB and top TE. Things can change quickly in the NFL and we have to adapt. Mahomes and Kelce are the OG pairings that are overlooked and untrusted. It’s a perfect time to recognize our bias in not playing them – they haven’t hit in a year (exactly one year) and they’re in a difficult matchup. Many analysts and DFS players advocate just paying down at TE, leaving Kelce and other high priced TEs out of favor. Perhaps you have a negative view of KC’s offense after losing their #1 WR and RB at the same time. Still, Patrick Mahomes has done a lot more with less. Can Mahomes pass for 4 TDs? I like to think he can (he may need to do this in order to win) with two of them going to Kelce. It’s at least a scenario we should be considering in this year’s lucky Week 7. Sometimes you have to take a look at the past to more clearly glimpse the future.

Bias in Roster Construction – Week 6 recap

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Week 7

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 7 Overview

We have a three game slate this week and there are a few important things we are awaiting word on that will have a huge impact on the slate (this also makes it a bit of a wild late swap situation for the Main Slate). Cooper Kupp looks like he could be good to go, but the Rams also play next Thursday against the Vikings and could hold him out of this one. Brian Robinson Jr. also looks primed to return for a prime matchup against the Panthers, but it is unclear what his workload will be with two other capable RBs in the mix and a QB who runs the ball often as well. Diontae Johnson is nursing three injuries (ankle, hamstring, ribs) and while he seems likely to play, he could be a late scratch or we could get the news he will be limited at some point prior to kickoff. All of these situations would be important on any slate, but on one this small with such a condensed player pool these situations will have a massive impact on the outlooks for each game and the associated players. From a roster construction standpoint, I really like 2-TE lineups with Kittle, Kelce, and Bowers all on this slate and there being a limited selection of high priced skill players.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Angles – JM

Solo Ship – JM & Squirrel Patrol

Block Party – JM & Peter Overzet

DFS Labs – DK – Papy & Cheeseman

Searching for Ceiling – Hilow & Rich Hribar

DFS Labs DK – StatATL & Cheeseman

DFS LABS FD – Mike Johnson & Maximus

DFS Labs DK – Hilow & Cheeseman

Roster Review – STATATL