El Magico is a high-stakes tournament champion who focuses on single-entry/three-entry max // small-field play

Through this article, I will be highlighting a small player pool that is composed of players that rank high in my proprietary model. This model usually starts working its magic once we have 3 weeks of historical data so there will be some small tweaking done until we get to that point in Week 4. There are several factors this model takes into consideration such as: DVP (Defense Vs Position), OL/DL matchup, WR/CB matchup, game pace, Vegas totals, target share, value score, air yard opportunities and a few secret sauce metrics I can’t discuss further. As we move forward I will do my best to point out some of the higher ranked players for the OWS community to take into consideration as part of their own research. When it comes to game selection, I would encourage this player pool to be used in single entry, 3-Max smaller field tournaments. 

QB:

Patrick Mahomes:

We just saw Mahomes struggle against one of the best defensive schemes in the NFL, and we just saw the Cowboys manhandle this Eagles defense. Here comes angry Patrick Mahomes in a get well spot in a high total game. This matchup bodes well to Mahomes’ strengths and the Eagles weakness, which is defending the tight end. When players like Mahomes rank well in the model it’s hard to get away from them, even at a steep price.

Consideration: Josh Allen, Dak Prescott

RB:

Kareem Hunt / Nick Chubb:

I am listing Hunt here because I am intrigued. Hunt has quietly been having a very productive season, mostly based on efficiency, but I think that the volume will be something that the Browns will need from him this week. The OL/DL matchup for Hunt is one of the best in Week 4 and the lack of a dynamic intermediate option for Baker Mayfield (no Jarvis Landry) will require more playing time from Hunt. Hunt got seven targets last week in a sluggish game environment and this game environment bodes much better for Hunt and his skills. At the same time, if the Browns are able to keep the Vikings offense in check, then this could turn into a Nick Chubb game as the model is spotting similar metrics for both RBs. I would like to play the two different scenarios this week, but I favor Hunt at low ownership and bigger upside than Chubb.

Antonio Gibson:

Note: Gibson is questionable. Keep an eye on his status

I expect some under the radar fireworks for this matchup and the model likes the position that Gibson finds himself in. The touches for Gibson have been holding steady despite the presence of J.D. McKissic, and this matchup lines up well for him in the trenches in a most likely neutral game script. Another aspect of this game that the model is picking up on is the opportunity of an elevated number of plays this game can offer.

Consideration: Derrick Henry, Sony Michel (if Darrell Henderson is ruled out)

WR:

Stefon Diggs:

The Bills continue attacking through the air and show no signs of stopping, as if it’s the only way they can move the ball. The air yards and opportunities are coiling up for Diggs like a rocket, and this cupcake matchup feels like a get well and back on track to 2020 Diggs/Allen form. The model likes to predict eruption spots, and this looks like one of them.

D.J. Moore:

Moore enters week 4 with a whopping 31% target share, averaging just about 10 targets per game. I can see this game shooting out, and if so, DJ Moore should be a big part of it as he faces a pretty favorable matchup; but, more than anything, volume volume volume, and he carries a relatively affordable price tag, making him a pretty good value with tremendous upside. In my opinion, this matchup should resemble the track meet we saw in Week 1 when the Cowboys faced Tampa Bay and not the messy game environment the Cowboys got forced into last week on MNF vs the Eagles.

Odell Beckham Jr:

We don’t have a lot of data on OBJ yet since he made his season debut last week, but the numbers are promising. Odell accounted for 31% target share and 49% of the team air yards in a poor game environment where the Browns offense didn’t need much to win the game. Now comes a Week 4 matchup against a prolific offense, but a defense with two of the most vulnerable corners in the league, Bashaud Breeland and dusty Patrick Peterson. This should be a game where the Browns and Baker will need to get on the aggressive side of things, and that bodes well for their WR1, OBJ.

Consideration: Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Emmanuel Sanders

TE:

Travis Kelce:

Kelce comes into this week ranked WR3, oops, I mean TE1. This matchup comes in as one-sided as they come. On the other side of the field, Kelce will match up with players like Eric Wilson who is one of the worst graded defensive players in the league. The Cowboys demonstrated that the way to attack this defense is through your TE and it so happens that this week the Eagles will face this daunting task. At the same time, this week seems to be one of those ugly TE weeks, so gaining an edge on this position may be key, or you can play Kelce as a WR1 in your flex.

Consideration: George Kittle, Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts (again!)

Magic Stack:

Baker Mayfield // Kareem Hunt // Odell Beckham Jr // Adam Thielen

Bonus stack:

Patrick Mahomes // Travis Kelce // DeVonta Smith

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

This slate is going to cause fits for a good chunk of the field. Why will this slate trip a good portion of the field up, you ask? This is the first week of the season where pricing is legitimately tight. After three weeks, the DraftKings pricing algorithm has enough data (takes prior ownership, production, and pricing into account) to shift things around enough to create an environment where concessions must be made. Where is the field likeliest to make those concessions this week? Floor. In a vacuum, DFS pricing equates to floor, meaning the higher the salary, the higher the floor. Now that pricing is tighter, floor is harder to come by.

The way you have seen this idea presented throughout the site this week is through the word “uncertainty.” Uncertainty is simply another way of saying “yo, dudes and dudettes, pricing is tight and floor is going to be hard to come by for your rosters as a whole.” Take a minute and think through the “value” plays (I emphasize “value” as I did to drive home the difference between a player being a true value – they are priced too low – and a player being called a “value” by the industry – priced below $6,000 at the quarterback position, $4,000 at the wide receiver position, $5,000 at the running back position or $4000 at the tight end position) being thrown around this week. Guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Quez Watkins, Matt Ryan, Zach Wilson, Anthony Firkser, Van Jefferson, Jr., Curtis Samuel, and Kadarius Toney have generated some level of buzz. That said, I need to be very clear here: these players are not terrible plays, just realize what you’re getting, and, more importantly, what you’re sacrificing when you place them on rosters.

The big picture of this intro is meant to drive home the basics. You could have largely skated by up to this point with poor fundamentals. How do we manage variance, elevate a roster’s floor, and reduce the number of variables that have to fall in our favor? Stacks and attacking game environments!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

DERRICK HENRY: 

Restrictive chalk. The modest increase to pass game involvement pads his floor ever so slightly, which could turn into more this week in the absence of both starting wide receivers. 

COOPER KUPP: 

Restrictive chalk. Leads the NFL in fantasy points at the wide receiver position, playing in the highest game total on the slate.

DJ MOORE: 

Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Will he be shadowed by Trevon Diggs or not? (My answer is in the SE/3-Max channel on Discord!)

DAVANTE ADAMS: 

Restrictive chalk. Coming off an 18-target game on one of the highest Vegas implied team totals on the slate.

TYREEK HILL: 

Restrictive chalk. Poor on-paper matchup, but matchups don’t really apply to Cheetah. 

TRAVIS KELCE: 

Restrictive chalk. Great on-paper matchup on a team with a Vegas implied team total of almost 31 points.

DAVID MONTGOMERY: 

Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Matt Nagy relinquished play-calling duties, huzzah!

ALVIN KAMARA: 

Restrictive chalk. Should have both volume and game flow in his favor.

LIONS DST: 

Expansive chalk. Uhhhh, come again? Enough said.

CHALK BUILD::

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JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate.

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.

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The Grid ::

Explained >>>>

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”

Blue Chips

:: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Bonuses

:: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

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Angles Pod

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).

Correlated Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.2K

Jalen Hurts
Antonio Gibson
David Montgomery
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Corey Davis
Christian Kirk
Van Jefferson
Kyle Pitts
Cowboys

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Blue Chips

Cardinals at Rams

While it’s worth noting that Kyler Murray has played four games against the Rams and has totaled 13 carries for 46 yards (an average of 11.5 rushing yards per game), this game nevertheless tops the slate in terms of “game environments that could provide multiple tourney-winning scores.”

On the Arizona side, I’ll likely bet on the field overrating Kyler’s blowup potential in this difficult micro matchup, while nevertheless betting on the likelihood of this macro matchup helping one or two Arizona pass catchers reach elevated production. In addition to the upside of this game environment as a whole, you could make a case that all Arizona wide receivers not named DeAndre Hopkins are fundamentally underpriced if you believe Jalen Ramsey lowers the chances of Hopkins operating as an all-out alpha. Christian Kirk > Rondale Moore > A.J. Green is the order in which I would rank non-Hopkins Arizona wideouts, in terms of likelihood of hitting the sort of ceiling we would optimally want in tourneys.

On the Rams’ side, no one is off limits for me. There’s a scenario in which the Rams end up scoring most of their touchdowns on the ground (making Henderson an upside bet if he plays, and Michel an upside bet if Henderson misses), and there’s a scenario in which the Rams continue picking up most of their scoring through the air (making Stafford and all his pass catchers viable).

Speaking of ALL Stafford’s pass catchers ::

Kupp is obviously the king of this passing attack at this point; but as has been well documented on the site this week, Robert Woods is still very much involved, and is going to have some big games. Tyler Higbee has been locked into a short-area role, but this role does at least come with intentional, schemed usage, giving him paths to hitting. Finally, realize that while DeSean Jackson hit the big plays last week, Van Jefferson quietly played 50/65 snaps and saw six targets. If building more than one roster around this game, it’s advisable to bet on the different ways in which points could come together for this offense.

“at Least One Viking”

As explored in this week’s Angles Podcast :: this is a bit of a strange slate. There aren’t many mid-priced players with clear paths to 30+ points, making the 30+ point scores at the high end of the price range that much more valuable. That said: there are going to be plenty of high-end players who disappoint this week, making it that much more important to “get things right” when spending up.

Enter the Vikings.

The Vikings are playing at a high level and are in one of the more attractive game environments on the slate. Dalvin Cook (assuming he returns) is sure to see a slight ding to his ownership levels, as the DFS community tends to get a bit scared about playing a guy returning from injury; and Justin Jefferson has extraordinary amounts of upside each time he steps on the field. (Well…that’s not totally true. I don’t know Jefferson personally, so there may be times when he steps on the field in, like, the middle of the night, just because he likes football and wants to be on the field. He doesn’t have upside in those instances. But he has extraordinary amounts of upside each time he steps on the field to play an NFL game…)

Bring-backs: I expect to have a decent amount of Dalvin and Jefferson this week, and I’ll be looking to complete that play in spots with Odell Beckham and with consideration for Kareem Hunt.

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Welcome to The Oracle! :: The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS!

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 4 Topics

1. Week 4’s highest-total games

2. Depleted Titans

3. Triumphant returns?

4. Early-season Buying // Selling

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. Week 4’s highest-total games

The Question ::

There are four games this week that feature A) a game total of 50+, and B) a spread of 4.5 or fewer points: Panthers at Cowboys // Browns at Vikings // Seahawks at 49ers // Cardinals at Rams. Do any of these games appear significantly more likely than the others to produce elevated scoring? And if not, what types of strategy angles might you look to employ around these spots?

The Answers ::

Xandamere >>

Every one of these games has some kind of mark against it. The Rams defense is really good. The 49ers offense is pretty “meh” with Jimmy G at the helm. Browns D is good and they’re a slow, run-heavy team that spreads the ball around a ton. Panthers and Cowboys defenses have both outperformed so far this year. None of these looks like a “can’t miss” spot. I’ll put Cards/Rams at the top for “likeliest to produce significant fantasy goodness,” as both of these are strong all-around offenses, both are likely to lean pass-heavy, and the odds of their opponent failing to keep up seem fairly modest. At least as I write this right now, ownership on the Rams looks robust, but on the Arizona side looks low. Seattle and Minnesota also appear extremely attractive from an ownership perspective, so if that holds, I’ll look in that direction. My overall thought process here is “there are several good games, no one game looks like a must-have, so I’ll just embrace the variance of targeting the best games with the least ownership.”

Sonic >>

I’ll have pieces of each of these in MME because I stack every game at least once. When weighting these particular games, however, my focus will be on ownership as it relates to ceiling. Ownership will further evolve until lock but right now a Kyler Murray/Christian Kirk/Tyler Higbee stack has a cumulative ownership projection of 9%. The Panthers/Cowboys game will be coming in hot in terms of ownership so I’ll be paying close attention to which pieces I pick from that game and how they fit into a roster. If that game shoots out and NFL randomness occurs per usual, a Cedric Wilson/Terrace Marshall secondary stack at $8k and 6% could be juicy for large field stuff. No Dan Arnold, and Amari Cooper may still be somewhat hobbled and playing a “filler” or “decoy” role at high ownership. 

Hilow >>

Cardinals at Rams is the clear answer to me from the perspective of the game environment as a whole. That said, I like pieces from each of these games, and, if attacked smartly, each one should provide fantasy relevant scores. 

Papy >>

None of these games are as likely to shoot out as the public will generally perceive. All four games have paths to points, but also have paths to failing that happen around 30% of the time if we played this slate 100 times. Since I don’t see a clear standout game among the four, I’ll follow ownership projections and look to be underweight the chalk. After smashing all three weeks to start the year, Cooper Kupp is priced up to $7,800 on DK and projected for 28% ownership.  Without checking, I’ll guess that is the most Kupp has ever cost in his career.  I’ll almost always be underweight on a turbo chalk WR at an elevated price tag. 

Larejo >>

I’m not expecting to have heavy exposure to Panthers at Cowboys, or Browns at Vikings. I will instead focus on the Cardinals at Rams and Seahawks at 49ers. I really like the Russell Wilson angle in the SEA/SF game, as he has underperformed overall so far this season, because his darn coaching staff doesn’t let him cook. His underlying metrics are still phenomenal. I’ll plan to have one mini Wilson/Metcalf stack this week and bring it back with Aiyuk, Deebo, or Kittle.

Cardinals and Rams will be my focus. I want to be overweight everywhere. I talked at greater length in this week’s Willing to Lose, but Kupp + Woods and Hopkins + Edmonds/Rondale will get on my rosters somewhere with Kyler Murray.

MJohnson >>

All of these spots are worthy of looks and have very intriguing possibilities to me. Of the bunch, Carolina vs Dallas seems like a spot that could really pop off. Dallas dropped 40 in their home opener and Dak and the passing game have had most of their monster games at home over the last couple of seasons. The Cowboys are averaging over 30 points per game after playing three very good defenses. The Panthers have been getting a lot of attention for their defensive improvements this season, but let’s keep in mind that they have played the Jets, Saints, and Texans — not exactly a murderer’s row of offenses — and will see a huge uptick in their level of competition this week. Let’s not forget that the Eagles’ defense also looked very good the first two weeks of the season before letting Dallas do anything they wanted on Monday night in Week 3. It would not surprise me in the least to see another 40+ point game from the Cowboys with the Panthers scoring in the 21-31 range like the Eagles did. I am also high on Cardinals at Rams, but I touch more on that in another answer later in this article.

Majesstik >>

When comparing the games mentioned to some of the other games, I think these are in the better group to work with. There are 5 more games with a point total of 45 or less on Vegas Insider’s consensus column. There are still plays within those games that could work out but some of them can be crossed off the list. The games mentioned above have some of the prime game environments to work with. We covered the Carolina/Dallas and Cleveland/Minnesota games on the First Peak podcast (One Week Season podcast feed), and those provide great opportunities for condensed offenses to build quality stacks/correlated plays out of. As far as significantly more likely to outscore the others, I’d go with Cardinals at Rams. Kyler Murray has put up two really solid games against the Rams in the past and is too good to be bottled up. This game will find a way to provide the most fireworks on the slate.

JM >>

From both a “player” standpoint and a “game environment” standpoint, this is a very “bunched-up” week. Here’s what I mean:

In the Angles Pod this week, I explored the fact that nine of the 10 highest-priced DraftKings wide receivers makes an appearance in the Player Grid as a guy close to my condensed, late-week pool. While this tells us that there are plenty of solid plays at the top, it also tells us that no single play is really separating from the others.

The same could be said about these game environments, as each game — as Xandamere noted — has marks against it. I’ve mentioned a number of times this week that Kyler Murray has averaged only 11.5 rushing yards per game in four starts against the Rams — which doesn’t mean he can’t hit for a big game on the ground, but it does tell us that his likeliest scenario is a game in which he has to win entirely through the air (thus capping the potential ceiling for this game environment as a whole). The Panthers and Cowboys have both been ahead of expectations on defense — and oh yeah, the Panthers are missing Christian McCaffrey and still have Sam Darnold at QB (he’s still making plenty of turnover-worthy plays, in spite of his healthy overall production). Seahawks at 49ers and Browns at Vikings, meanwhile, both feature teams that need to put up points through efficiency — which all four teams are capable of, but which also opens the door for disappointing scoring.

With all that said: it’s likely that most (if not all) of these games produce tourney-worthy outputs from individual pieces. Cardinals at Rams is the game I like the most, but I’ll be getting some level of exposure to all four of these games across my seven or eight rosters this week.

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2. Depleted Titans

The Question ::

The Titans are implied to score 25.5 points against the hapless Jets — though they are also, very notably, expected to be missing both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. While it’s important to note that the Jets’ defense has not been a total doormat this year (18th in DVOA against the pass; 13th against the run; credit to Robert Saleh for setting up his defense to maximize “strengths” and minimize weaknesses), it’s also likely that the Titans push into this “three to four” (or more) touchdown range being projected. Derrick Henry is sure to be popular, with his non-empty role in the pass game and his utter dominance on the ground; but assuming AJB and Julio miss (note: both are now Out this week), it’s also likely that the cheap pass catchers on the Titans will be popular…and it’s at least “more likely than not” that at least one of the touchdowns goes to someone other than Henry. What are some of the ways you might be looking to account for this spot this week?

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Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week!

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

How do you win a GPP? There’s no right answer to that question. Being honest with ourselves is important, and the honest truth is there’s no real answer to that question. It changes week to week, game to game, slate to slate. Does that mean your mindset should change with each changing slate? No, because that would be ludicrous. But think about the fact that “how to win a GPP” literally changes with every slate yet we are working toward training our minds to have a consistent process. Just think through that for a minute. Where does that leave us? It puts us in a place where nothing is “always” or “never,” and each and every week we start with a blank canvas when we build our rosters. What worked last week could work again this week, or it could not, and the opposites could also be true. But I implore all of you to just consider we need to have an open mind on each and every slate. Be open to new ideas. Be open to new players. Be open to players who have jaded you in the past (ahem, Falcons).

DFS Advice

OWS put out a question on Twitter earlier this week on the greatest piece of DFS advice you’ve received. The replies there are phenomenal. I resonate with Mike Johnson’s response of the “best way to be contrarian is to think for yourself,” and also the great Ricky Bobby’s quote, “‘if you’re not first, you’re last.” I also love this line I read one time, “you can’t cover every square.” They all relate to me. Think for yourself, build for first place, and have conviction in doing so. Heck, have some false confidence and just expect great results and you may even WILL some rosters up those leaderboards. So, where are we going this week? Oh, I have some thoughts!

Saquon Barkley & Kenny Golladay

Did you miss out last week on Najee Harris? Well, here’s your redemption. Let me explain. In Week 1, we had a situation where the Lions were going up against the 49ers with an implied team total of around 19 points and no talented skill position players outside of D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson (to be fair, they are still in this exact situation). Many feared playing these two in this first game because of the low implied team total. But when there are no better options, game script is thrown out the window and talent rises to the top. Swift went for 23.7 DK points, while Hockenson scored 25.7. Again, neither was very owned, mostly because everyone thought the Lions would stink (and they were right) and they were only anticipated to score two touchdowns and a field goal or two.

Then last week, with top option Diontae Johnson out of the lineup, we saw Harris and Chase Claypool receive 19 and 15 targets each in a negative game script, as the Steelers aired it out 58 times. I mentioned this earlier in the week but Najee was a near lock for me once Diontae was ruled out, as his volume was anticipated to grow in the passing game and he was expected to be on the field every snap. Claypool was aided by JuJu Smith-Schuster’s injury but those two players garnering a majority of the targets could have been something we saw coming.

Fast forward to Week 4, where we have the Giants / Saints and New York will most likely be without both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. Who is left on the Giants offense? Barkley, Golladay, and a recovering Evan Engram. Last week, Barkley saw 16 carries and 7 targets, while Kenny G had 5 targets of his own. Neither was incredibly high volume, but both should see upticks this week against the Saints. More importantly, Barkley’s healthy again playing his full complement of snaps and Golladay is coming off a 70% snap rate, even with his lingering hip problem. Without Shepard and Slayton, and with their prices sitting at $6,700 (Saquon) and $5,500 (Golladay), a combined 40 points is well within reach based on the expected volume and game plan this week.

Chiefs & Eagles Game Stack (Byron Pringle, Miles Sanders)

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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

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Greetings OWS Fam!

Behold my player pool as it stands on Saturday. I’ll be entering my meditation zone now and will emerge with further thoughts, I’m sure, which I’ll post on twitter @Sonic_nhpain or in the MME channel in Discord, if something interesting hits me. Be careful how you approach the Cowboys/Panthers game in MME. You’ll need some cheaper, lower owned plays to mix into that one. Some secondary stacks correlations would be a nice addition for sure.

I feel great about this week. Let’s get some!!

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Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Welcome to Week 4 on Superdraft and they still have a $250k GPP, which is just awesome. Last week’s big tourney only got to 9,438 entries out of 11,500, meaning the overlay was significant. They collected $236k in entry fees and paid out $250k so not only was it rake-free, there was even some actual cash overlay on top of that. Again, this is one of the best opportunities out there! Overlay is massively +EV to target and we should be chasing it wherever we can.

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 3. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

As always I’m going to be targeting upside here with multipliers (sorry, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray). Somewhat bafflingly, Josh Allen has a 1.2x multiplier this week, which feels bonkers to me. He’s my overall top QB play on the slate and I expect he will be very highly owned. I’m okay eating chalk at QB, though. Jalen Hurts, despite a horrible performance last week, is still entirely viable at 1.3x. The higher-multiplier QBs that I want to take shots on are Taylor Heinicke, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, and Baker Mayfield, all with 1.45x or greater multipliers and all in solid matchups. If you want to play someone like Dak Prescott or Matthew Stafford in a game stack, I wouldn’t say you’re wrong, but personally, I’m shooting for more upside with multipliers.

Running Back:

At running back, Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook are basically checked off my list. I just can’t play Henry with a 1x multiplier, while Dalvin at 1.1x with his pass game role is more tempting but the matchup is a really tough one. However, I am willing to play Alvin Kamara as the clear engine of his offense, and a 1.15x multiplier is not generous but it’s in the “fine” category. As always, I’m focused in the 1.3x and higher group for most of my running back exposure. I love Najee Harris (1.45x despite a huge game last week), Chuba Hubbard (1.7x and likely to be popular filling in for CMC), Chris Carson (1.45x), Elijah Mitchell (1.7x, and I expect he gets more work than Trey Sermon, though Sermon is also a fine play as well at 1.75x if you want to bet the workload favors him), DeAndre Swift (1.45x), and Antonio Gibson (1.4x). Those are my core guys. I’m okay mixing in some higher risk options as well, like Ezekiel Elliott, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Jonathan Taylor, and David Montgomery.

Wide Receiver:

Give me all the variance! Guys like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp have really strong raw projections, and at this position, they still have meaningful ceilings, but I will have a “max 1” rule on that trio.

In the mid-tier, I want a lot of CeeDee Lamb (1.35x), Amari Cooper (1.3x), D.J. Moore (1.4x), Robby Anderson (1.45x), Terry McLaurin (1.35x), Calvin Ridley (1.2x), Deebo Samuel (1.35x), Brandon Aiyuk (1.55x), all the Bills, Brandin Cooks (1.45x), the Seattle guys and the Vikings wideouts. Dumpster diving at the really high multipliers doesn’t look as attractive to me as it did last week, though I would not blame anyone for taking shots on guys like Rondale Moore, Michael Pittman, Darnell Mooney, or Marquez Callaway.

Tight End:

I keep saying I’m happy to get 20 points at tight end and that hasn’t really changed, so I’m totally fine just playing Travis Kelce. My player pool here is basically Kelce, George Kittle (1.4x), T.J. Hockenson (1.4x), Kyle Pitts (1.6x), and maybe a smidge of Logan Thomas (1.55x) and Tyler Higbee (1.65x). I’m not interested in trying to chase outlier performances here. For the most part, I will be happy with Kelce or one of these other established studs.

Overall Strategy:

If you look through the list of players, a couple of stacks really come together:

• Darnold with Moore or Anderson, and then Lamb or Amari coming back. This is the fourth highest total game of the week and we get some great multipliers here.
• Hurts either naked or with one of his receivers, and then Kelce or Hill coming back. Second highest total game of the week, and while the KC multipliers aren’t great, the Philly ones are fantastic.
• I’ll always pick on Atlanta, and Heinicke with McLaurin offers a lot of upside at their respective multipliers. Pitts makes a nice bring-back here.
• Justin Fields to Darnell Mooney sounds terrifying (and it is), but I’ll do a couple of those with Swift or Hockenson coming back.
• Stacks without their QB are entirely viable on Superdraft. I think you can stack up the Rams/Cardinals game with higher-multiplier options and just leave the QBs off. I think you can do the same with Seattle/49ers or Browns/Vikings (though I do want some Mayfield). The idea here is that a receiver, or even two (at higher multipliers) can have really big games on Superdraft without a much lower multiplier quarterback coming along with them. If Russ Wilson throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, that’s only about 30 Superdraft points at his 1.15 multiplier (most weeks we see multiple QBs get to 35+), but that could easily support a huge performance from Lockett, Metcalf, or even both of them if it’s distributed the right way. Same with Arizona, which has Kyler Murray at just a 1x, but many of his receivers at extremely favorable multipliers.

When thinking about stacking on Superdraft, I want to see realistic paths for my QB to get to 35+ points and my RBs/WRs around 30+ points at their multipliers. At TE, I’m happy with around 20. I try to sit back and think “what would it take for this stack to get there?” This basically rules out a Mahomes/Hill stack for me. Mahomes would need something like 400 yards and 5 touchdowns. Could he get there? Yeah, I mean he’s Patrick Mahomes. But the odds are incredibly low. For Heinicke/McLaurin, if Heinicke throws for 250/3 and adds 30 rushing yards, that’s 25 raw points, which becomes 40 Superdraft points at his 1.65x multiplier. If McLaurin goes, say, 8/100/1, that gets him to about 30 with his 1.35x multiplier. Does that seem reasonable? It’s a pretty strong performance for Heinicke, but I’d argue it’s more likely than a 400 yard, 5 touchdown game from Mahomes. This is really the “art” to Superdraft: balancing the best plays (from a raw points projection) with the multipliers to figure out who the best plays are from a multiplier-adjusted perspective; then, figuring out how to correlate effectively while taking the multipliers into account. 

Now go chase some overlay!

Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting

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<< Edge Bets Primer >>

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Week 3 Recap

EDGE BETS Week 3: 1-2

EDGE BETS 2021 Results: 5-6

Jameis Winston: Under 29.5 Pass Attempts

Result: Win (21 Pass Attempts)

This game was paced up a bit from what we expected, with the New Orleans Saints running 62 plays this week, a big step up from their likely league wide weekly low total of 39 last week. Jamies was in on 95% of these snaps, with Taysom Hill accounting for 6 carries in limited action. At this point, Sean Payton has made it clear that they do not intend to let Jameis Winston air the ball out 30+ times a game as we saw during his up and down Tampa Bay tenure and with the  Saints opening the season with a 2-1 record, we can expect much of the same moving forward. Alvin Kamara rushed 24 times in Week 3, his second 20+ carry performance over the season’s first three weeks after surpassing that milestone only one time in the 2020 regular season. Look for these trends to continue this week versus the New York Giants in a game the Saints are favored by more than a touchdown in an expected slow paced environment.

Jared Goff: Over 38.5 Pass Attempts

Result: Loss (30 Pass Attempts)

The Detroit Lions showed a commitment to the run versus the Baltimore Ravens this week in a game they kept competitive throughout. Surprisingly, the Lions were in line to win this game until the final seconds and a NFL record 66 yard field goal off the foot of Justin Tucker. The Lions ran 60 plays this week, a far cry from their Week 1 total of 84 in comeback mode, and it appears this team may not play all that fast unless forced. The Lions opted to use their running back duo of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams more in this one, rushing 26 times for a lowly 89 yards (3.4 yards per carry), in order to keep Lamar Jackson off the field. This team wants to play smash mouth football in any game script it allows, and I’ll be avoiding the middling arm talent of Goff going forward as Week 1 continues to look more like the exception than the rule as the Lions coaching staff begins to talk up the ultra-talented Swift. Look for a slow paced game this week versus the Chicago Bears with the Lions having the opportunity to make good on their comments to increase Swift’s workload. 

Trevor Lawrence: Over 38.5 Pass Attempts

Result: Loss (34 Pass Attempts)

Trevor Lawrence has not lived up to the pre-draft expectations as the Jacksonville Jaguars savior through three weeks, on the verge of losing as many games in the NFL as he had in his high school and college career combined. Lawrence was responsible for four total turnovers in Week 3 (two interceptions, two lost fumbles) while taking three sacks, ending multiple drives, and stalling even more. If not for an NFL record-tying 109 yard kick-6 that gave the Jaguars the lead going into halftime, Lawrence still may have managed to beat this prop playing as poorly as he did. The game environment was as good as expected, with the Jaguars running 66 plays and the Arizona Cardinals running 64 (130 combined, matching the Jaguars season average). However, the Jaguars were able to rush the ball effectively on 29 attempts, 13 more than their Week 1 and 2 totals of 16 each.

Personal Player Props Bet

Week 1: +10.0U

Week 2: -1.2U

Week 3: 0.0U (No bets placed, family weekend)

2021: +8.8U

Week 4 Edge Bets

Josh Allen Over 36.5 Pass Attempts

Book: Draft Kings (-120), Bet MGM (-117)

Date Available: September 30th

From Hilow:

“That said, the Bills have run 85 (!!!), 63, and 71 offensive plays during the first three weeks, meaning chances are high we see another 70+ play game here. That would lead to a likeliest scenario of 40-42 pass attempts from quarterback Josh Allen.”

“Furthermore, the likeliest way for Buffalo to establish a lead is through the passing game, meaning the very unique scenario where the defense provides an outlier performance and two of the three first touchdowns come from the Buffalo run game is the only way this passing game fails here.”

Reasy’s Reasoning:

Forgive me if I sound like a broken record but the Buffalo Bills STILL do not want to run the ball. They showed last week that they will throw continuously with a lead, as Josh Allen completing short passes to keep the chains and clock moving is more successful than whichever of the Bills running backs they have available to kill the clock. There is a risk of a repeat of Week 2 versus the Miami Dolphins (35-0) if Houston can not scheme Brandin Cooks looks versus a tough individual matchup but, as outlined by Hilow in The Edge, the paths for failure for this passing offense occurs in outlier scenarios where the running game breaks a few big touchdown runs or we get a defensive touchdown or two to limit the total plays run below the 70 mark. The Bills are rolling right now and I expect them to keep Allen involved throughout the game to keep the momentum going.

Antonio Gibson Over 14.5 Rush Attempts 

Book: Draft Kings (-130)

Date Available: October 1st

From Hilow:

“Washington holds the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate and the ninth-fastest situation-neutral pace of play through three weeks.”

“The matchup with the Falcons yields a slightly above average 4.37 net-adjusted line yards metric and we should expect Antonio Gibson to approach 20 rush attempts in all but negative game scripts.”

Reasy’s Reasoning:

This is a pace-up game, with the Washington Football Team operating at the fifth-highest situation-neutral pace meeting the Atlanta Falcons ninth-highest pace of play in neutral situations. With over four minutes of possession time unaccounted for between these two teams, we can expect the Football Team to come away with a possession or two more than they have seen through three weeks and improve on their average of 56 plays per game average so far in 2021. While Washington has had a hard time sustaining drives (29th in drive success rate), I expect improved sustainability from the offense in this plus matchup on the ground, with the WFT continuing to run the ball at a high rate in neutral game scripts (currently fifth) which can be expected with a spread currently sitting at Washington -1.5 and holding steady. Gibson has outcarried JD Mckissic 45/8 so far this season, dominating touches in positive game scripts. Expect Washington to play with urgency this week, sitting at 1-2, versus an Atlanta team that is struggling to find its identity and stride. 

Jonathan Taylor Over 15.5 Rush Attempts 

Book: Draft Kings (-135), Bet MGM (-125)

Date Available: October 1st

From MJohnson86:

“Jonathan Taylor is very clearly the Colts’ best offensive skill player and their weapon of choice for attacking opponents. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, they have only led for a combined six minutes across three games and have been unable to get their running game going so far this year.”

“Indianapolis will likely try to get Taylor rolling like he was to end the 2020 season against a Miami team that has a loaded secondary and top-10 DVOA defense against the pass.”

“The preferred method of attack for Indianapolis here should be a heavy dose of the run game.”

“As previously outlined, this is a spot that lines up for spiked volume for Taylor and he is a talented player who can provide ceiling games when given adequate opportunities.”

From JM:

“If Frank Reich (who is pretty reliably adaptable) is adaptable to the matchup and personnel here (Carson Wentz could barely move in the pocket last week, and he’s unlikely to be fully healed this week), it is a good spot for Taylor to see elevated usage.”

Reasy’s Reasoning:

Last week, like JM, I was on Jonathan Taylor in my Single Entry lineup looking to be early compared to the field (sub 5% owned). While that didn’t work out (RIP to my extremely low-owned game stack), it meant I spent much of Sunday flipping back and forth to watch the game in real-time. The JT eruption of late 2020 is coming and there is little reason it can’t be this week in what is a must-win for the Colts to save their season from being lost before the quarter way point. The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the most RB run points this year via The Workbook while playing the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, and Las Vegas Raiders. Taylor possesses more raw talent than the previous backfields, and while this game is expected to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair, that might be just what we need for Taylor to excel if the Colts can play with a positive game script. 

Jameis Winston Under 203.5 Passing Yards

Book: Draft Kings (-115), Bet MGM (202.5 -118)

Date Available: October 1st

From Papy324:

“The Saints have thrown the ball 21, 22, and 21 times through the first three weeks. Amazing!”

“The Giants offer no reason for Payton to deviate from his preferred approach. Expect the Saints to start the game featuring Kamara unless forced to go a different direction. They will continue to limit Winston’s pass attempts and another 20-25 attempt game is a real possibility.”

“Payton has limited Winston to under 23 attempts for three straight games, and there is no reason he won’t make it a fourth.”

Reasy’s Reasoning:

After getting hit hard for three weeks, most books have not yet/will not post Jameis Winston pass attempt props this week as there isn’t a number within reason that the field wouldn’t hammer the under. We’ll take this a step further, and attack a yardage prop in a low point total game in a slow pace environment. Through three weeks, Winston has attempted 63 pass attempts for a total of 387 yards through the air (129 yards per game at a 6.14 yards per attempt). Even if we boost Winston’s pass attempts to the higher range of 25-27, in a game the New York Giants will be without two of their top wide receivers, we can comfortably project Winston to finish between 155 and 170 yards in the most likely pace and game scripts. Alvin Kamara has carry totals north of 20 in two of three games to start the year and Winston’s lack of effort to include him in the passing game limits the Saints big-play potential through the air. Expect the Saints to continue limiting Winston’s ability to lose the game while still allowing Kamara to do damage on the ground this week and in the future as long as they are not forced to do otherwise.

ActionLabs Props Tool

One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.

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Thanks for hanging out with us in The Scroll this week!

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!