Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

Welcome to Week 4. The first official week of the NFL season where we have a representative sample of data to draw from to inform our predictions. It’s a glorious thing.

While there is plenty of season to go and we don’t know yet what to make of most of the teams, three weeks of data can provide actionable insights, which minimizes the unknowns and reduces the variability of our predictions.

Said another way, we’re building lineups with less “guesswork” involved, starting this week. You rarely want to draw a one-game prediction from a season’s worth of games, and you equally won’t feel great about making a one-game prediction based on just one game. Three to four games is the sweet spot, which makes Week 4 so appealing to me. 

With this piece of information, you’d think my next sentence would be something along the lines of “trust the data this week,” and it is sort of along those lines, but not exactly. I’ll explain.

I’ve read about, and often written about, how it’s lazy to use the past to predict the future. And it is, because the cause and effect of the variables that produced past outcomes were different, and therefore not the same as what we’re analyzing for the future. 

However, the right counterargument to this point is that historical data is the best we have in being able to frame and predict future outcomes. This is true, but the reason why only using the past to predict the future is lazy is because we have to account for variance. Variance, that annoying, unknown randomizer that dictates much of how results play out in real life.  

Variance: The Ultimate Randomizer

If you did a word find across One Week Season, variance may be the most-used action word across all published content. Variance, leverage, and correlation would be the likely top three. And if you don’t believe me, or can prove this wrong, then I still would absolutely hammer the fact that variance is used more on OWS than any other fantasy site in the DFS space. 

Why? Because all of the voices on this wonderful site are doing their best to preach the random outcomes each and every week. It’s not as easy as saying, “this tight end crushed against the Chargers last week, so the tight end facing them this week surely will do the same!” No, of course not. Because players are different, coaches make adjustments, and game environments are unique to each matchup. But when you blend thoughtful variance with actionable data, we are building for realistic outcomes.

Sometimes you’ll make the most sound predictions, variance won’t budge, and you will lose. Other times, you’ll make unfounded, irrational predictions but variance will swing your way and you’ll win. Then you’ll think the unfounded way to go is optimal, variance will sway away and you’ll lose. And on, and on, and on.

Ultimately, the point to drive home here is that we want the right mix. We should always leverage data. We should always infuse randomness. For this week, remember this simple equation: random + rational = perfection. 

Week 4: The Golden Ticket

I wanted to go down this data and randomness path this week because the data is finally significant, and there’s one game the data is going to point to this week that we should be clearly targeting. That game is Washington at Arizona.

At risk of oversimplifying, if data and variance are the two primary elements we can lean on to build first-place lineups, and one of those elements is going to show a strong preference, then that makes this the week of embracing variance.

The point of the Angles email is to be a primer for the week. So as you start down your path toward getting ready for the Sunday slate, I wanted to make sure we are early on this rather than late. We’ll go more into the rest of the slate below, but keep in mind that this game will be the likely fulcrum of the week.

Washington at Arizona is the probable Golden Ticket this week. It’s carrying a 50.5 total currently (Thursday), already being bet up from its open at 45 combined points. These are two bad defenses. Through three weeks, these are two efficient offenses. Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray are going to be the poster boys for optimizers on every site. And we can go on from there. (Quick note: Don’t scroll past The Workbook this week, put together by our very own Majesstik. So much data to love in here and this specific game is carrying a .800 combined DSR, which is the highest of any this season!)

So before you jump into the rest of the slate, recognize where the data points are. The sharpest way to be unique is to not be all in or all out. It’s to find the sweet spot of likely and unlikely outcomes and put together a lineup that goes down in history! 

Week 4: The Others

Well, I hope the intro here got you going a bit, because it may be hard for me to maintain my energy around the rest of this slate.

If the Commanders/Cardinals game is outshined by another this week it’s likely one of the following three games: CIN/CAR, NO/ATL, or PHI/TB.

The surprising 0-3 Bengals need to shore up their defense, but their offensive unit coming back to full strength with Tee Higgins and a three-down role for Zack Moss could pay dividends. Carolina got the classic bounce from former Bengals mainstay Andy Dalton last week. If he can duplicate the performance, these are two offensive-minded head coaches with defensive inefficiencies.

New Orleans and Atlanta square off to see who will be the frontrunner in the NFC South, a division that may be better than we thought if Tampa and Carolina can have a strong showing this weekend. The Saints need a bounce back for America to not think they were a two-week wonder, while the Falcons would like to reinstate the preseason public belief that they were the team to beat in this division. 

All signs point to Saquon Barkley for the Eagles this week in a game they may potentially play without AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and two of five starting offensive lineman. Meanwhile, the Bucs are anxiously awaiting the start of this game if for no other reason than to get the loss against Denver behind them as fast as possible.

And if it’s not one of these games which could upend WAS/ARI, the next place to look for points will be within individual offenses, as big favorites. Huge fantasy performances can always emerge from real blowouts, which brings team stacks (playing two offenses with multiple players from each in the same lineup, without bring-backs) fully into play.

Let’s look at the glass half-full first (heavy favorites): 

• 49ers (25.5) laying 10 points vs. New England
• Texans (25.75) favored by 6.5 vs. Jacksonville
• Jets (23.5) favored by 7.5 vs. Denver
• Chiefs (23.5) also favored by 7.5 against the Chargers

Any of these offenses could be concentrated enough to win a blowout and produce a few fantasy-winning performances. For what it’s worth, the Texans/Jags likely has the best chance to emerge as a better-than-expected game environment simply based on the offensive talent on the field.

As for the glass-half-empty crowd, we have the emergence of the “short of 20” club this week with eight(!) teams projected to score less than 20. They are the Patriots (14.5), Chargers (15.5), Broncos (15.5), Browns (18), Raiders (19), Colts (19), Rams (19), and Jaguars (19). If there’s hope here, it’s that just a few nights ago the Commanders put up 38 on a 19-point implied team total.

So go forth, and build wisely this week. Think about the data + variance equation and where you want to be common and different.

And with that, I’m super excited for the on-site and off-site content coming your way this week, and as always, let’s go hang out at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!

Hugs and hand pounds!
-Larejo 

P.S. $20 off Bink Machine!

We’ve rolled out our first rest-of-season price drop on the Bink Machine.

Was :: $149 for the season.

Now :: $129 ($6.79/week).

Let’s go!

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

If Week 1 was the slate of uncertainty, and Week 2 was the slate of overconfidence, and Week 3 was the slate of injury mayhem, then Week 4 is the slate of the trends. We know the Jaguars are playing an insane amount of man coverage. We know the Colts and their static 4-3, Cover-3-heavy defense that is struggling to adjust to a dynamic league. We know the Rams look historically bad on defense. We know the meta of the league is shifting to heavier rates of two-high alignments, which is shifting the emphasis to heavier rates of rushing. We know who the work horse backs are. We’ve seen play calling tendencies in action. These are all new data points to add to our decision-making matrix, data that we didn’t have access to over the first three weeks of the season.

As for the specifics of this slate, man, there are a lot of injuries again. And yet, we don’t have a lot of value that projects well, leaving the DFS community scrambling to identify value (hint, their answer this week is to just play cheap tight ends that can go 4x their salary, Tre Tucker, and Jonathan Mingo).

The field knows where the solid game environments are, as evidenced by the expected ownership we’re seeing heading into the weekend. That said, a lot of that ownership makes very little sense to me when taken into context with the ownership around them in those same games. For example, we want to play Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs but not C.J. Stroud. We want to play Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard but not Andy Dalton. We want to play Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert but don’t know where to get the value to do so. We’re certain the 49ers won’t fail against the Patriots, but we want to play a running back with little pass game involvement against a defense ceding the fourth-fewest yards before contact and just 83 yards on the ground per game through three weeks.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

DIONTAE JOHNSON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. A mid-week soft tissue injury is not something we want to see from a wide receiver, making this a shakier play than the field is likely to give credit for this week. Even so, Johnson projects as the second-best point-per-dollar play on the entire slate, second only to Nico Collins. The injury and ownership take him from “I’ll figure out a way to play him differently than the field in small field contests” to “I’ll figure out a way to play him differently than the field in all contests and be honest with the range of outcomes of this game environment should he not make it through the game.”

JORDAN MASON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Patriots are allowing the fourth-fewest yards before contact (0.93, as in, dudes are getting hit almost immediately) and the fifth-fewest rush yards per game (83). Jordan Mason has very little pass game involvement. Enjoy.

NICO COLLINS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I’ve laid out the metrics and statistics in multiple places this week, so we won’t belabor that here. Suffice it to say, my research told me that Collins would likely project as one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the slate. He is the top point-per-dollar projection on the slate.

NAJEE HARRIS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Najee is the second-highest point-per-dollar projection on the slate and there aren’t many holes I can poke in this spot on paper. The Colts average the lowest time of possession at a pitiful 21:36 over a non-negligible three-game sample. The Steelers like to control the pace, tempo, and environment in their games by forcing their opponents to march the field, allowing more opportunities for their elite pass rush to generate disruption, and march the field on their own on offense. Harris could see 25-30 running back opportunities with Jaylen Warren out.

BIJAN ROBINSON

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The field really wants Bijan to be classified as a workhorse running back. He is not, at least, not yet. That said, this is a beautiful schematic matchup against a Saints team ceding the third highest yards before contact (2.75).

KYREN WILLIAMS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Unlike Bijan, Kyren Williams is a workhorse for the Rams. The offense could completely fail against one of the top defenses in the league, but if the Rams are scoring points, Kyren is highly likely to be involved.

BRIAN ROBINSON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is about as neutral a matchup as you can find against a Cardinals defense allowing 1.95 yards before contact behind an offensive line generating 1.95 yards before contact. The volume should be there for Robinson to return a solid cost-considered game. That said, he’s going to need to hit the 100-yard bonus and score to return a GPP-viable score here (which I guess is true of every running back).

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Sunday Morning Update

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.2K

Kyler Murray
James Conner
Roschon Johnson
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Noah Brown
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Brenton Strange
Travis Kelce
Saints

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

None

I don’t have any players popping to me as true Blue Chips this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“The Works”

Kyler + Conner + Harrison

Story:

“Same Old”

Why It Works:

The Washington defense is not good, but I wonder if people realize how “not good” it has been. Through three weeks, Washington has faced the Bucs (split backfield), the Giants (concentrated backfield), and the Bengals (split backfield). This week, they face the concentrated backfield of the Cardinals (if we throw away the blowout win in Week 2, James Conner is ceding an average of five touches per game to Benson and Demercado), so we’ll simplify things by adding the combined production of the Bucs and Bengals to get these numbers. In the first three games of the year, the Commanders have allowed DK production from “QB + ‘RB’ + WR1” of about 78 DK points (Bucs), 66 DK points (Giants), and 92 DK points (Bengals). The overall talent of “Kyler + Conner + Harrison” falls somewhere between the combination of “Baker + mediocre running backs + Mike Evans” and the combination of “Joe Burrow + mediocre running backs + Ja’Marr Chase,” so it’s not unreasonable to think that if we played out this slate a hundred times, we would see this Cardinals contingent scoring around 80 DK points at a 25% clip or better (remember :: broadly speaking, DK pricing generally gets guys in ranges where they will hit 4x their combined salary about 25% of the time). These three need around 80 DK points to pay off their combined price tags, which would land you at 4x across three positions, from a large chunk of salary, thus putting you way ahead of the field. Said differently: rostering this block, in this matchup, is a bit like rostering Christian McCaffrey or Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill in a good spot, but with an even larger payoff than you get with those guys, as you’re getting more spots correct, with a larger chunk of salary. Those guys rarely reach a full 4x their salary, but they often get close enough for them to be really valuable pieces for the raw points provided. Looking at this block through that lens, it becomes really attractive this week.

How It Works:

This is the obvious game of the week, but so far, MHJ is coming in with low projected ownership, and even if he becomes popular (alongside a popular Kyler and a not-overlooked James Conner), it’s unlikely that many people will be playing this stack in this way. If this were to hit for 80 to 90 points, you would be pretty far ahead of the field. These builds don’t have to get too wild away from this stack.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Little Engines”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

The Works

Typically, I set up a few rules in the Bink Machine for the Player Grid, as I don’t fill out my own rules for the weekend until Saturday night. This week, however, I actually filled in most of my rules as I wrote my DFS Interpretations and filled out my Player Grid, which should, in theory, give me lots of fun/unique rules to choose from for this section. Interestingly, however, my rules are pretty straightforward this week, so I’m going to focus this section on the rules I’m applying around the Commanders // Cardinals game to shape these builds the way I want.

This first rule is simple :: it tells the Bink Machine that I want at least 60% of my rosters to apply “The Works” block from the Building Blocks section (Kyler + Conner + Harrison). This rule can be read as, “On at least 60% of rosters that have Kyler Murray, play all three players from this pool.”

50.4

Sticking with that same game, this rule says, “On at least 80% of rosters with Jayden Daniels, include both players from this pool” (or :: “On at least 80% of Jayden rosters, include Brian Robinson Jr.).

Jayden Bring-Backs (1 & 2)

I don’t plan to force bring-backs on Kyler rosters, but I want to make sure that all of my Jayden rosters include a bring-back. This first rule instructs the Bink Machine to include one player from my Cardinals pool on every Jayden roster, and the second rule stipulates that this Cardinals player will be either James Conner or Marvin Harrison Jr. on at least 80% of those builds.

Kyler Stacks

Finally, I want to recognize that the Commanders have allowed big “QB + 2” production in all three games so far. Because of this, I want all my Kyler rosters to have two stacking partners. In “The Works,” we ensured that at least 60% of Kyler rosters would have both Conner and MHJ on them, so what do we want to make sure we have with the other 40%?

Firstly, I want to apply a rule that says, “On all Kyler rosters, include two stacking partners.” (This rule says, “On 100% of rosters with Kyler, include three players from this pool.”)

Secondly, I want to make sure that I don’t have a bunch of, say, “Higgins + Wilson” rosters (which could hit, but are pretty low-likelihood, and are not what I’m looking to bet on). If Kyler is hitting, I want to assume there’s a high probability that MHJ is also hitting, so this final rule states that “On at least 95% of rosters with Kyler, Marvin Harrison Jr. must be included.” This will ensure that at least 60% of my Kyler builds have Kyler // Conner // MHJ, at least 95% have Kyler // MHJ, and 100% have two Cardinals paired with Kyler.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Kyler Murray || Jayden Daniels || Joe Burrow || Andy Dalton || Maybe a bit of Darnold // Love (I’ll play JJ on these builds, but not away from these builds)

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback ::

• Kyler Murray – I’ve been on Murray the last two weeks. One of them went very well, the other not so much. This week Murray gets a terrific matchup against the Commanders who are playing on a short week.
• Jayden Daniels – This guy has been on fire, setting records for completion percentage and his offense hasn’t punted once in the last two games. I think he keeps it going this week in a shootout in the desert.
• Caleb Williams – He finally had his first solid game in Week 3 against the Colts, but his salary hasn’t gone up and he is in a great matchup for Week 4 against a depleted Rams secondary that has been torched repeatedly this season. I think Williams posts another very good game with upside to be a slate breaker.
• Salary Savers: Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Andy Dalton

Running Back :: 

• Saquon Barkley – Quite simply, the salary Barkley is at is too low for the role and offense he is currently in especially with their WR issues.
• Brian Robinson, Jr. – The Commanders backfield has quietly been a quality source of production and they are playing in a potential shootout this week, with Robinson taking the full workload for the first time.
• James Conner – The Cardinals are very likely to have a lot of offensive success in this matchup on the ground and through the air. Conner is their workhorse and in about as good of a spot as he will be all year.
• Najee Harris – Remove Jaylen Warren and insert a Colts team whose opponents have seen the most play volume of anyone in the league since the start of last year. This is a recipe for 25+ touches for Harris in a terrific matchup.
• Kyren Williams – Showed last week that he is the engine of his team’s offense now that Kupp and Nacua are out. The Bears have been far better against the pass than the run this year and Kyren has legitimate slate-breaking ceiling.
• Bijan Robinson – The Saints were just destroyed by Saquon Barkley and Bijan is one of the few RBs in the league who can match Barkley’s skill set. Assuming his mid-week shoulder issue isn’t a concern, Bijan is in a terrific spot for his best game of the year.
• Salary Savers: Roschon Johnson, Cam Akers, D’Onta Foreman, Cordarrelle Patterson

Wide Receiver :: 

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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Moons Over My Hammy

This is ridiculous. 

QUESTIONABLE: WR Chris Olave (hamstring)

QUESTIONABLE: WR Nico Collins (hamstring)

QUESTIONABLE: WR A.J. Brown (hamstring)

QUESTIONABLE: TE George Kittle (hamstring)

QUESTIONABLE: RB Bucky Irving (hamstring)

OUT: WR Davante Adams (hamstring)

OUT: RB Dameon Pierce (hamstring)

OUT: TE Evan Engram (hamstring)

OUT: RB Pierre Strong (hamstring)

OUT: WR A.T. Perry (hamstring)

WTF?

This week’s strategy seems like it’ll come down to whose hamstring holds up, whose doesn’t, and which players get a boost in volume because their teammates didn’t do enough TheraBand stretches.

It’s starting to feel like an epidemic. The best advice I can give is right here in this free tweet.

These are contrarian moves I will be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Many will miss, but if they hit, we’ll lap the field.

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

Rashid Shaheed/Kyle Pitts

Rashid isn’t as boom-or-bust as he used to be, but he’s also pricier now. His zero last week appears to be suppressing ownership. This is an obvious pounce spot. 

This is the week! The stars are aligning, and Kyle Pitts is gonna crush at 1.3% ownership. The Saints spent 60 minutes last week trying to locate Dallas Goedert and were woefully unsuccessful. If this isn’t Pitts’ week… I swear, I’ll quit him. I’ll even join Pitts Anonymous if I have to. 

Both players offer great leverage against their more popular teammates. If the touchdown variance swings their way, we’ll be printing.

Saquon Barkley/Mike Evans

The Buccaneers are giving up the 3^rd most points to the running back position and rank 2^nd worst in tackling per PFF. The Eagles have the 5^th ranked offensive line. #math

Evans is due for a ceiling game and Baker Mayfield may need to hit on some chunk plays if the Bucs aim to keep pace. 

This one’s a little pricey, but the ceiling is monstrous. At 8% and 2% projected ownership, I’ll be jamming these two into my stacks that feature the sub-6K quarterbacks.

Other Secondary Stacks I Like:

Jayden Reed (7.3% pOWN) and Justin Jefferson (3.4% pOWN)

Brian Thomas Jr (2.8% pOWN) and Dalton Schultz (3.7% pOWN)

Offset RB Chalk with Contrarian Correlation

Hard to avoid rostering mispriced running backs in a salary cap contest. Let’s play these guys in a different way than the field, but one that still tells a plausible story. 

Kyren Williams has one of the best roles in the NFL, but 20% of the field will be clicking him. The good news? You can offset that chalk with literally any member of the Chicago Bears. Rome Odunze (1.6% pOWN) got the spotlight here last week and made me look borderline intelligent. DJ Moore (3.6% pOWN) should see his 10 targets with plenty of chances for big YAC against a Rams defense that ranks 28th in pass coverage, according to PFF.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This week has one stand-out game total in WAS /AZ (50.5). There isn’t another total above 48 on the rest of the slate.
• The next tier of games is CIN /CAR (47) and JAX /HOU (45.5). Amazingly, no other games were able to crack 44.
• The next tier down has three games: MIN/GB (43.5), PHL/TB (43), and NO/ATL (42). These games are barely distinguishable from the bottom tier.
• The lowest tier has six games which all have totals below 42: LAR /CHI (41), NE/SF (40.5), PIT/IND (40), KC/LAC (40), DEN/NYJ (39.5), CLE/LV (37).
• Half the slate are games with totals below 42, and only one game has a total above 48.

Pawn – WR Rome Odunze ($5,200)

Odunze is expensive for a typical pawn. Some cheaper options are Michael Wilson ($4,200), Darnell Mooney ($4,400), and Jonathan Mingo ($3,300) who were all considered for this spot. Odunze is worth a little extra. He has been a full-time player (over 95% of the snaps) the past two weeks and it led to an 11 target break out game. Keenan Allen has been nursing a heel injury and it’s tough to know if he’ll play but I’m not sure it matters. The Bears drafted Odunze with a high first round pick and he looks like he can play. They have no reason to take him off the field. His price came up $1,000 after his big game but it didn’t come up enough. The Rams have been generous (29^th in passing yards allowed per game) to opposing air attacks, and Odunze will have another great opportunity to hit. Play him now before he’s $7,000.

Knight – RB Zach Moss ($5,900)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 4 Topics

1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. Gem That Unlocks The Slate

3. Panic or Patience?

4. Value Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

Bringing back a weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?

The Answers ::

JM >>

There has been a lot of variation in early-season data points provided by a lot of the teams across the league. The Saints were unstoppable, and the reasons they were unstoppable lined up perfectly with the reasons the Eagles had been unable to stop anyone — and then, the Eagles adjusted and shut down the Saints. The Panthers were uncompetitive in every facet of the game, and after making a switch at quarterback, they dominated a Raiders team that had just beaten the Ravens on the road. The Jaguars should have beaten the Dolphins and could have beaten the Browns, with their defense showing up for relatively solid performances in each spot, before being unable to slow the Bills down at all in Week 3. The Broncos looked like a get-right matchup for most opponents, and then they beat a Bucs team that was coming off a win over the Lions. The list goes on and on. There are a number of unique components to this week — the high supply of low-total games combined with the small number of game environments with separator potential; the injuries that we not only entered the week with but have continued to add to throughout the week; the lack of early-season value that’s so different from past years (last year around this time, we had all of Thielen // Dell // Puka still significantly underpriced for their roles!) — but perhaps the most unique component, to me, is how much we’re having to wonder, “Which version of this team will show up this week?” There are some obvious spots I’ll be building around in Week 4 — but I’ll also be looking to lean into some of the spots where “what we think we know” might prove to be different from “what we end up seeing this week.”

Xandamere >>

How about injuries? We don’t know where it will land by, say, Saturday night or early Sunday morning – maybe we’ll get clarity on every one of these situations – but right now I see a whoooole lot of questionable tags on important players who, should they miss, would meaningfully change the slate. Some of these are just simple player maintenance from early-week practices, but wow, if some of these guys get ruled out by surprise 90 minutes before lock it could be a real scramble to build. Those situations favor people who are prepared and know what they want to do ahead of time. 

Beyond uncertainty and what might happen Sunday morning, let’s just say “there are a LOT of injuries on this slate…we thought there were a lot last week, but wow, this week there are even more.” That means people will get lost amongst a lot of plays that project really well because there are just so many, and it should mean some really strong plays end up going really overlooked from an ownership perspective. 

Hilow >>

I called Week 1 the slate of uncertainty, Week 2 the slate of overconfidence, and Week 3 the slate of the injuries. Week 4 is now the slate of information and trends. A three-game sample is not a lot when taken in the context of time, but when you look at it as a percentage of the season, it starts to mean a whole lot more. These teams have all now played 17.6% of the games they will play this season, giving us valuable insights into some trends, observations, and fact-checking moving forward. Who saw the Rams ceding almost 430 yards of total offense per game? Who saw the Colts yielding almost 180 yards of rushing per game? Who saw the Jaguars playing 61.3% man coverages through three weeks? Who saw Malik Nabers to be on pace to break a rookie receiving record set just last year (okay, maybe some of us saw this coming)? Who saw the Colts limiting Anthony Richardson to just an 8% scramble rate when pressured (take the training wheels off!!!!)? My point is there have been enough total games played to start reassessing our prior convictions, adjusting how we know teams to behave in certain situations, and formulating new theories and hypotheses moving forward. This is our first period of true transition. Let’s welcome it with open arms instead of being stuck in prior convictions.

Mike >>

I really like Hilow’s answer here, as we now have enough information and a broad enough range of samples to get a better understanding of how these teams stack up. We know the Saints are good against poor teams and can be explosive, but they will also struggle against better defenses who take away the run. We know the Cardinals can be explosive against poor defenses, but will struggle when made one-dimensional. We know the Browns are going to take a lot of negative plays offensively, but what about when they face a team like the Raiders who struggles to create pressure? This is the week we can start exploiting the nuances of “who” these teams are and the situations that best (and worst) suit them beyond how most people just look at a team’s offense and defense in a binary fashion as “good” or “bad”.

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2. Gem That Unlocks The Slate

The Question ::

This week’s main slate has 12 games on it (13 for the Fanduel crowd). Only four of those games have a total of 45 or higher, as NFL passing efficiency and scoring continues to be limited. We haven’t really seen back and forth, high scoring games yet this NFL season (at least on the main slate), but that means that if/when we do see one it is likely to rock the entire slate. Are there any games this Sunday that you think have that potential to be the “gem that unlocks the slate”?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.

Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.

(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)

Luke McCaffrey (WAS) UNDER 22.5 Receiving Yards

Like the receptions u2.5 to about -135, but this ones already getting hit. TL;DR his snaps are trending in the wrong direction and he only has 7 targets on the season.

The bet is good to: -130

Xavier Worthy (KC) UNDER 3.5 receptions

Worthy’s an explosive player but he’s also seen 11 targets on the season – hard to get 4 catches on 3-4 targets per game, and it’s somewhat hard to see the Chargers (especially if they’re missing Herbert, but even with him) really pressing the Chiefs. – we get some game script outs, too.

The bet is good to: -155

Breece Hall (NYJ) OVER 66.5 rush yards

Good matchup, big home favorite, this feels like too big of a Braelon Allen discount…Allen’s good but Breece’s role still feels safe, Allen mostly getting extra work in late up big/extra run situations.

The bet is good until over 70.5 yards at low juice

Jordan Mason (SF) UNDER 10.5 receiving yards

The 49ers just have not used Mason as a receiver – despite playing massive snaps, he only has 4 targets on the season for a total of 20 receiving yards. And, Kittle should be back, giving San Francisco another viable passing game weapon. Honestly, this line doesn’t make much sense at all to me.

The bet is good to: -130 or 8.5 at modest juice

Andy Dalton (CAR) UNDER 4.5 rush yards

Dalton is a pocket passer who doesn’t run unless he’s being chased or there’s a WIDE open lane. The Bengals D doesn’t generate a lot of pressure, so it’s unlikely he’s being chased. When we last saw Dalton play regularly in 2022 he covered this line in 3/14 starts – I hate super small lines like this that can easily be blown up by 1 play, but this would hit well over 50% of the time if we played this game out 100 times.

The bet is good to: -135

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

I’m all for trying new things, especially when it comes to food, as long as I can envision how a dish could come together based on a description of what’s included in it. If there’s a food item on a menu, but I’m not familiar with the name, or it sounds like a dish I’ve never even considered, I don’t know about you, but I likely won’t be ordering it. If instead, I see an item on a menu that looks like something I would be interested in, but it’s different in its own unique way, well, then that’s an item I am likely going to be excited about trying.

For anyone out there who loves cooking, sometimes the best form of cooking is the “tried-and-true.” Dishes and recipes that everyone knows and loves. And as the chef, you are familiar with preparing and perfecting it. This is indisputable. It’s how most of us eat every single day, with food and dishes we know that we like to consume. But every so often, situations call for trying something new. Maybe we’re just trying to switch things up. Maybe the people you are eating with are all in an exploring mood. When this happens, it can typically go one of two ways. The chef can either take the new dish too far (i.e. get too exotic with ingredients), or the chef can hit a home run and create something new and fresh that everyone loves (i.e. tweak and enhance a dish with a strong foundation). When the chef takes it too far, we all have the same reaction. Why? You should have just done X or stopped at Y, or put a little more/less of the Z ingredient, and then this would have been delicious!

This week, I want to focus on the second outcome, because it’s the optimal approach and it’s in sync with the Angles email from earlier this week: rational + random = perfection. 

Michael Wilson (or lower owned pieces of the best game on the slate)

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

Does your personal life ever get in the way of your DFS play? Most people who enjoy this hobby struggle with family, life, and work challenges that interrupt or divert their full attention. As a high school teacher and father of two, my DFS play often is forced to take a back seat – hello, middle-of-the-night research parties! I am generally full of awareness and my mind is constantly reflecting so my life, work, and family give me plenty of opportunities to learn from it. In fact, my latest thoughts about bias come from my work experience leading 160 freshmen boys through a week of service.

Is it Bias or is it Trending?

It can be pretty annoying as a teacher to hear that stealing little zipper grips hooked onto another person’s backpack is trending, and it seems to be a perfectly good excuse for taking someone else’s property. During a Freshman service experience that I ran at my high school, I had to intervene a few times last week to return stolen grippers and discipline the kids doing it. Different behaviors are always trending at this age level, and as quickly as they consume 14-year-old boys, they also become inconsequential. We have begun to notice the trends developing in the NFL after three weeks. People refer to them as trends, but for DFS we want to know if the trend will become a new reality or if it will become like the zipper grips, and if so, why? It’s Week 4 of the season and it should be a good time to figure out how to act on these trends and examine them for the bias they could create in our decision making process.

Week 4 – Tight Ends

Last week I speculated that the uptick in the use of cheap TEs was a result of recency bias against the elite TEs. In Week 1, only Isaiah Likely put up a separator score, as there were no other scores over 15. In Week 2, only two TEs scored over 20 points and they were both cheap. In Week 3, people spent UP on TEs and Goedert was the only one that made people any money. I do think there is a trend to pay down at TE, and giving into the trend in Week 4 is a clear result of recency bias. 

Looking deeper at the top ten TEs in fantasy points this year, six are considered high end and will regularly cost you 4.5k and above. The separator score that is produced at TE is extremely valuable and will often come from this higher priced group. It still seems like a good idea to search for a ceiling score amongst the higher prices, but in Week 4 we have a few injuries to monitor with George Kittle, Evan Engram, Trey McBride, and David Njoku. On the healthy side, we have Kelce, Goedert, Bowers, and Kyle Pitts – these may be the only ones above 4.5k in which case paying down might be the appropriate decision as only four guys would be competing for a separator score and the likelihood that one hit goes down. We may need to wait for a week with more high priced TEs to take advantage of this trend to pay down at TE.

RB usage

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Week 4

Travis Kelce + Browns Defense

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

Outlook 

Week 4 offers us a 12-game slate with some potential strong leverage in late swap if we don’t get news on Deebo Samuel (currently questionable) before the 1:00 PM kickoffs. We should also expect to see about 40% of rosters building around either Kyler Murray or Jayden Daniels and we’ll discuss how we can leverage that knowledge below. 

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• Diontae Johnson – The Panthers WR is likely to carry the highest overall ownership on the slate coming off the second-best game of his career with Andy Dalton now at the helm for Carolina.     
• Nico Collins – The Texans star wideout is expected to see an increased role with Tank Dell inactive. Squaring off against a Jaguars secondary that has allowed multiple 100 yards receiving games already this season, Collins is projected for around 25% ownership. 
• Dallas Goedert & Saquon Barkley – With both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith inactive, the Eagles offense is likely to funnel almost exclusively through these two, and their projected ownership reflects this belief. 
• Slate Breakers – Such as Jauan Jennings’ 49.5 DK point performance last week.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$6,500 and up:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 4 Overview

Four games on this slate and one of them clearly stands out from the others. Washington and Arizona are highly likely to see a good deal of yardage and points, which is something we will have to account for but also something that the entire field will be thinking about. This creates a situation where figuring out which of the other games can turn into a shootout or a blowout will be key. The other three games all have a wide range of outcomes and could be 16-13 slugfests, low excitement 20-6 type games, or games where the superior team dominates 31-7 (all just example scores, you get the point). I think it is very viable to just ignore players from the Patriots, Raiders, and Chargers if you want and build with the idea that WAS/ARI lives up to the hype while the other games are non-competitive. One other thing to note is the status of Deebo Samuel will have a big impact on the slate. If he plays, the 49ers boat racing the Patriots becomes far more likely. That would also impact the target distribution for the 49ers, though, so it’s something we need to watch closely and listen for reports while getting the inactive reports as soon as they are released.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Labs 4.5 DK – Papy & Cheeseman

Block Party – JM & Peter Overzet

Searching for Ceiling – Hilow & Rich Hribar

Angles – JM

Solo Ship – JM & Squirrel Patrol

Labs 4.4 DK – STATATL & Cheeseman

Labs 4.3 FD – Mike Johnson & Maximus

Labs 4.2 DK – Hilow & Cheeseman

Roster Review – STATATL