Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
OWS Fam!!!
Best Ball? Over. Season-long? Over.
Playoff spots? (Mostly) Determined. Motivation levels? Established.
Welcome to Week 18.
As fast as this season has flown by us, it’s felt similarly slow, if that makes sense. The NFL is a story full of one-week seasons, each week creates such detailed assessments and seemingly requires our undivided attention in order for us to really know what’s going on. When you get into the flow of the season, that’s when the time passes us by; but as we reset each week and assess each slate, finding the energy to do this is where the season slows down.
We’re still adjusting to what Week 18 should feel like, in my opinion. This is just the fourth full season of 17 games, and with how the schedule is laid out, the Week 18 ahead of us doesn’t seem to have the glitz or glamour the NFL hoped it would. But that doesn’t mean it’s not fun…
The (Un)Stackables
We’re greeted with a 13-game slate on DK this week and a 14-gamer on FD. It’s as if the NFL is saying, now that season-long fantasy football is over, we’re done catering to our biggest audience. The reality, however, is that the schedule is condensed in order to align teams to play with incentive at the same time, and also to not give much of an unfair rest advantage to next week’s playoff teams. Either way, I’m here to help break this down.
Want to know the most refreshing statement of the year (in an Angles Email context)? Implied totals barely matter this week. I say barely because the barometer for how much teams should score is lower this week. What I mean by that is I may dip below 20 for some stacks this week, whereas over the course of this season there were just a few occasions where a team was implied under 20 and put up a GPP-winning total (Commanders in Week 3, Giants in Week 17). It happens, but it’s rare.
For Week 18, the only way to navigate is to more or less eliminate some teams from your player pool. What they have to play for aside, I’m cutting out the following teams from stacks: Chiefs, Patriots, Giants, Saints, Bears, Raiders, and Rams. Extremely thin margins of error for anyone stacking these teams, it can happen, of course, but it’s a razor-thin line. Beyond those seven teams, I will say that implied points don’t matter for nearly any other team. If you’re sniffing 19 points this week, you can go off, kings.
What we have to do here, however, is help navigate where, when, and how. To do this, let’s lay out the following games as either stackable (both sides in play) or unstackable in line with expected environments, motivation, player value, etc.
Stackable (6)
Panthers // Falcons: Carolina seems to be over the hump with their best efforts when they couldn’t finish the job to get wins vs. the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bucs. However, Dave Canales and Bryce Young should be able to find something here in the last game of the season. The offense did not look the same without Chuba Hubbard, but a pass-heavy game plan against a team that can’t bring pressure? On the Atlanta side, a massive implied total and a matchup the Bucs just dominated last week. There should be two outcomes in this game, an Atlanta blowout win or a high-scoring, close game.
Commanders // Cowboys: Washington has proved it can play chaotic games with the best of ‘em and this Dallas team shouldn’t offer much resistance. These two teams played an ugly first matchup that took off in the second half (54 second-half points combined), but that included CeeDee Lamb. Without his talent, the Cowboys looked one-dimensional in Philadelphia last week and the scoreboard reflected it. This isn’t my favorite of the bunch since we don’t know how much Washington will play their guys, but there’s a path to glory somewhere in here.
Jaguars // Colts: AFC South losers can take this game in many different directions. We don’t yet know if we’ll get Richardson or Flacco against Mac Jones, but if it’s Joe Cool, the beatable Jacksonville secondary should be in for a day. The Jags’ offense should feature Brian Thomas Jr., and if not for a maddening timeshare between Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne, we could target a back as well. An overstack here seems farther-fetched, but the key pieces on both sides are affordable and usage should be predictable from two teams already eliminated from playoff contention.
Texans // Titans: The Texans may be nearing the completion of perhaps the quietest dominant division championship we’ve ever seen. We’re all still waiting for this offense to regain its 2023 form, but now without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, it seems unlikely. Or so we’re supposed to think… Houston badly needs to get its offensive mojo back before the playoffs, otherwise it’s going to be a meek first-round exit next week. The Titans could be what the doctor ordered, as there’s really no reason for Tennessee to try to win this game. We’ve seen Mason Rudolph lock onto Calvin Ridley and Chig Okonkwo lately, and it should be Tony Pollard’s backfield this week.
49ers // Cardinals: Do either of these teams have pride? Our guts would say yes for the 49ers but no for the Cardinals. Arizona is just 1-5 in its last six, and the Niners 1-6 in their last seven. Despite elimination, it feels like both of these teams and head coaches, in particular, are starving for a win. Josh Dobbs will likely start for Brock Purdy, which changes things a bit, but the talent is still there in San Francisco, and Arizona can match up well. Another game in a dome in January should help the scoring output.
Dolphins // Jets: In what should be Aaron Rodgers’ final call, Snoop Huntley may be on the other side starting for a Miami team with a slim chance left to make the postseason. There’s not much to be said here except that Rodgers and Adams have proven they’ll chase stats and Huntley has at least kept the Dolphins somewhat in play. We don’t really know what happened to De’Von Achane last week, but this is a great bounce-back spot for him.
Offenses needing attention (3): Broncos, Tampa Bay, Green Bay. Denver and Tampa do have to win their games, and we shouldn’t take that lightly. Green Bay sort of has something to play for with the possibility of climbing one seed from seventh to sixth in the NFC. Denver is hosting the Mahomes-less Chiefs, who should not be trying much this week, while Tampa has the Saints, who could be feisty if Derek Carr and/or Alvin Kamara returns, but both seem unlikely to play. Any of these three offenses could lead the slate in scoring and it would not be surprising.
Beyond the stackables, plus the other three, there’s not a ton to like. I didn’t mention Seattle, which is eliminated but likely won’t play like it. They’re traveling to the Rams, who have clinched the division and will be resting key starters, including Matthew Stafford, so it’s hard to see this game taking flight. The Chargers are in a similar boat, therefore leaving them mostly off the table.
Week 18 comes with plenty of unknown. Plenty of backup quarterbacks and plenty of intrigue, if you ask me. What I’ve learned is that it won’t make the most sense to lean into extremely uncomfortable, illogical spots. It will make sense to limit your player pools and lean into the teams likely to play their guys 100% of the game, just in a slightly different way. We don’t need to tell the story of Carson Wentz driving Kansas City to 30 points this week. Could it happen? Sure, but will it happen? Unlikely. Feel free to eliminate teams, players, and more from your analysis. You won’t cover every scenario and you’ll be overwhelmed in trying to do so.
Find your paths, build your edges, and give Week 18 a chance. I’ll be mixing it up here as well in the first main slate of 2025. I hope you will too and can’t wait to see your entries taking down tournaments come Sunday!
Thanks for reading this season!
~Larejo
