Sunday, Jan 29th — Early
Sunday, Jan 29th — Late
Bye Week:
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Bills
Broncos
Browns
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Cardinals
Chargers
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Commanders
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The Scroll Week 16

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    THE SCROLL


    Your Late-Week “Roster Construction” Content

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    The Scroll will begin populating with new content on Friday night, and will be fully live by late Saturday afternoon!

    #TheWorkbook

    Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

    How To Use The Workbook

    *Tabs are updated throughout the Weekend


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    JM’s Player Grid

    JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max


    OWS Fam ::
    This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate.

    This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.


    The Grid ::

    Explained >>>>

    Bottom-Up Build

    :: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”

    Blue Chips

    :: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

    Build-Arounds

    :: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

    Bonuses

    :: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective


    Angles Pod

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    Bottom-Up Build

    Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).

    Correlated Bottom-Up Build
    DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

    Matthew Stafford
    James Robinson
    Justin Jackson
    Cooper Kupp
    Antonio Brown
    Marquise Goodwin
    Tyler Conklin
    Byron Pringle
    Bengals

    Find last week’s Bottom-Up Breakdown and join The Bottom-Up Build DraftKings Contest here!!


    Merry Christmas!

    And welcome to another weird week…

    Same as last week ::

    1. This is the sort of week in which I will be looking to make NOTHING resembling a “final decision” until Sunday morning
    2. At the moment (lolz), it looks like Covid craziness has slowed down on this slate, and this very well could prove to be a “final version” of the Player Grid; but my plan is to add updated notes to the BOTTOM of the Player Grid on Sunday morning, shortly before (and if news requires this, also shortly after) the Inactives email hits your inbox. CHECK BACK SUNDAY MORNING FOR UPDATED THOUGHTS.

    Blue Chips

    Cooper Kupp

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    End Around

    Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

    MACRO SLATE VIEW::

    This week continues the recent theme in the NFL of low game totals, COVID-induced uncertainty, and mega-chalk. Five running backs are expected to garner more than 20% ownership, with the top four of them priced below $6,000 in salary. There are only three wide receivers expected to garner more than 20% ownership, but two of them are expected to be 35%+. Quarterback, tight end, and defensive ownership is expected to be all over the place as the field fights through the information overload. What information overload, you ask? More than 300 players (about 17% of all active players in the league) have been added to the league’s COVID list over the past two weeks. That is a staggering number.

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

    JAMES ROBINSON:

    Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Best cost-considered, on-paper running back play on the slate. Range of outcomes is much more secure this week than last week.

    RONALD JONES II:

    Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Theoretically set for 18-22 running back opportunities against a run-funnel defense, in a game the Bucs should control. Mental lapses keep him from my personal Tier 1 cadre.

    JUSTIN JACKSON:

    Expansive chalk. All but guaranteed to see 18+ running back opportunities against a Texans team allowing 27.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, which will also likely be without 20+ players due to a COVID outbreak, at a price of only $4,200. 

    DAVID MONTGOMERY:

    Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Has averaged over seven targets per game over the past three games and should be good for 22-25 running back opportunities, with room for more. Hasn’t cracked the 100-yard rushing bonus since Week 4 and has only four touchdowns on the season. Very interesting leverage possibilities available, which we’ll cover below.

    ALEXANDER MATTISON:

    Restrictive chalk. All but guaranteed 22-25 running back opportunities in a difficult matchup on the ground against the Rams. Pass game involvement keeps his floor high. Cost-considered ceiling intact, albeit coming with a decreased chance of success.

    ANTONIO BROWN:

    Expansive chalk, just barely. Might possibly be the most underpriced wide receiver we’ve seen all season. Likeliest scenario yields seven to nine targets, with legitimate paths to 15+ looks here.

    COOPER KUPP:

    Restrictive chalk. Zero analysis needed at this point, à la 2019 Davante Adams. One of the few plays on the slate that has a legitimate path to 40+ fantasy points.

    JUSTIN JEFFERSON:

    Restrictive chalk. One of the few plays on the slate that has a legitimate path to 40+ fantasy points. Difficult matchup on paper, but we’re highly unlikely to see Jalen Ramsey shadow here.

    Chalk Build:


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    The Oracle :: Strategy Q&A

    Welcome to The Oracle! :: The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS!

    Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

    Week 16 Topics

    1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

    2. All aboard the Touchdown Express

    3. Floating-play strategy, Week 16

    4. The gems (& gem-related strategies) that unlock the slate

    5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”


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    1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

    The Question ::

    A weekly staple of The Oracle :: In no more than two or three sentences, tell us what makes this slate particularly unique.

    The Answers ::
    JM >>

    I’ll echo what Xandamre said about Christmas (that’s always a big one!) — but since our sharpest competition (the competition we’re ultimately competing against for first place most weeks) will still dedicate their typical process here, I’ll say the biggest individual thing that stands out to me on this slate is all the late-season value available. Typically, at this point in the season, our rosters are forced to feature players we A) didn’t know existed a couple months ago, and B) won’t remember existed when next season kicks off. (If you’ve never gone back through some of your old rosters from this late in the season, it’s pretty fun to see the random names — especially the random chalk — that tends to develop around this point.) But with Covid and late-season injuries opening so much late-week value (that is to say :: with news breaking too late for pricing to be adjusted), we have a TON of genuinely non-awful value.

    This week, one of my focuses will be sorting through this value to determine which pieces I might not be able to win without…and to determine which pieces have a greater chance of disappointing than the field will imagine. While there are plenty of strategy elements to keep in mind from there, simply knowing which value to focus on and which value to “consider, but not get married to” can go a long way this week.

    Xandamere >>

    A few things! 

    1. It’s the day after Christmas, which means a lot of people will be a bit out of it. Some players won’t play at all (that’s me), others will play casually without a lot of effort/research. Much like the Thanksgiving slate, the bar of competition is just a bit lower.
    2. Covid continues to ransack the league. Roles are changing, and there’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty, both about game environments and individual players’ roles on their teams. It feels like not quite as much uncertainty as last week, but then again, it’s only Friday and we could still get a whole bunch more news.
    3. As the regular season heads towards its close, we need to start thinking about motivation. We’re not at the point where a team would be likely to fully rest a player (nobody is locked into seeding yet), but the teams that have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs may start moving to evaluation mode and playing younger players more, introducing more role uncertainty (witness Craig Reynolds coming out of nowhere for the Lions the last couple of weeks).
    4. At a more tactical level, we have another week of relatively modest total games. There are no games with a total over 50 and only two games with a total of over 45 (Rams @ Vikings and Chargers @ Texans), one of which is projected to be a blowout. Similar to last week, that means we need to think of how to approach the slate: should we try to find the right one-off players for an entire roster? Should we focus on onslaughts of the highest-total teams even if the game might not be competitive? Or should we try to find a slightly lower-total game that might come in at lower ownership and could result in a higher-scoring affair than Vegas is guessing at?
    Sonic >>

    X and JM covered everything really well above. I’m fascinated about ownership this week. So far it feels like most of the running back chalk is valid. Anyone can fail on any given Sunday but the RBs appear to be far less fragile than the wide receivers this week. 

    DFS players on the east coast will have an advantage this week. Most of us will be unable to research or build lineups on Saturday so most of the work will get done on Sunday before lock. Lock comes early on the west coast so our dedication will be tested this week. Can Sonic emerge from a Christmas hangover in time to build 150 solid lineup? We shall see!

    Hilow >>

    Yet again, we have another slate of information overload, particularly in the form of running back value, late week COVID list additions, and a relative thinning of skill-position players on a few of the top team totals on the slate. Furthermore, we have another slate where we continue to see Vegas game totals and Vegas implied team totals shrink (there are ZERO games on this slate with a game total of 50 points or more, and only ONE game with a game total that lands in the “magic range” of 47.0-47.5 points), meaning we’re likely to see rather spread out ownership (outside of the running back position), we’re likely to see more roster construction and basic DFS theory errors on rosters, and we’re liable to see both a lower cash line and GPP-winning scores. 

    Larejo >>

    It’s Christmas! And yet that won’t be the single biggest unique aspect of this slate. The obvious number two is COVID’s continued impact on all of the games. Every time I write a player’s name I am combing through the breaking news the next day and hoping they simply make it to gametime. 

    I think the third unique aspect is something Xandamere also touched on, we’re getting to the point where teams are truly willing to lose (and trying to). It makes zero sense, for instance for the Jaguars or Lions to make much of an effort on Sunday with their pole positions on the 2022 NFL Draft order. On the Lions side, without their starting QB, they are a complete stay away for me. The same can be said for the Jags, who yes are playing for an interim head coach who would love a win, but they’ve shown how good they are at losing over the last three seasons. The Jets, Texans, and Giants fall into this depressing category as well (one of the Jets or Jags needs to win as they play each other), and really the Chicago Bears have absolutely zero to play for with a coach who seems comfortable taking his Coach of the Year award from three seasons ago and being unemployed next season. In my opinion, this really narrows the options for game stacks. You can go to the Bears, Lions, or Jags/Jets, as many will but it’s a stretch with just three weeks to go (either from the talent on the field, motivation to win, or general fatigue of underperformance).

    MJohnson >>

    This is by far the most value we have had at the running back position all season, with the only week coming close being the D’Ernest/Ingram/Rhamondre week where they all got there. The intriguing thing about this week is also that the replacement RB’s are all from good game environments with good to great QB play – the Bucs, Chargers, and Vikings.

    Another very unique thing about this slate is the fact that we have so many teams playing on short rest. Eight teams played on Monday or Tuesday, and six of those teams are now playing on the main slate – with four of those teams playing in games against another team on short rest (Rams/Vikings and Bears/Seahawks). Given the point of the season we are at and the varying objectives of teams, we should keep these dynamics in mind when building. Some teams may alter their usage to protect top players if they are already out of contention or if they are already locked into the playoffs and want to preserve their players for the postseason.

    Finally, while we have been dealing with COVID issues since the start of 2020, this is the first week since the league instituted their new protocols that allow for quicker return to play. This week I think we will get a LOT of late news that alters the slate, specifically with players that most people were expecting to be out surprisingly being allowed to play. That combined with the fact that it is a holiday weekend makes it likely to me that those who are paying attention and prepared can have a huge edge.

    Majesstik >>

    This being the Sunday after Christmas may put some of the field into a bind if they’re traveling or tied up with family affairs. That could create an edge for players that are able to take advantage of inactive lists and late swap opportunities. We’re also at the mercy of what Covid is doing to rosters on a daily basis. The amount of high-end WRs on this slate is better than the past few while the top of the RB position has issues.


    2. All aboard the Touchdown Express

    The Question ::

    (Buckle up…)

    As we often talk about :: “Five or more offensive touchdowns” is what we are truly looking for in terms of “team stacks” or “game stacks” that can carry us to first place. A bunch of yards from a team is nice, and four touchdowns from a team is nice, but the games that tend to truly vault a roster to the top of the leaderboards are those in which a team scores five or more touchdowns, in large part because such games are pretty rare, especially this deep into the season (when defenses have plenty of tape on opponents, and when offenses are often dealing with fatigue and injury). In Week 14, the Broncos (vs the Lions), the Chiefs (vs the Raiders), and the Packers (vs the Bears) got there. In Week 12, the Bucs (vs the Colts) got there. In Week 11, the Chargers (vs the Steelers) got there, and the Colts (vs the Bills) got there. Those are the only teams that have gotten there in the last five weeks. (As an interesting side note :: of the 30 touchdowns scored by those teams, 16 came on the ground, which speaks to the reason you so often see sharp DFS players include a running back in their 3/1 stack.)

    But in addition to the fact that only six teams have scored 5+ offensive touchdowns in the last five weeks, we have this: only 26 teams have scored 4 offensive touchdowns, giving us 32 instances in the last five weeks in which a team has scored four or more offensive touchdowns. Among those 32 instances, we can pull the following information ::

    The Bears have allowed two teams to score 4+ touchdowns :: the Cardinals and Packers.

    The Seahawks have, somewhat surprisingly, scored 4+ offensive touchdowns twice in the last five weeks, vs the Texans and 49ers. (The Seahawks play the Bears this week.)

    The Vikings and Steelers have each allowed THREE teams to go for 4+ touchdowns against them over the last five weeks.

    The Steelers play the Chiefs this week — who have scored 4+ offensive touchdowns in two of their last five games.

    The Vikings play the Rams — who have scored 4+ offensive touchdowns only once in their last five games (vs the Jags), but who rank fifth in the NFL in points per game.

    The Bills have allowed a pair of teams to go for 4+ touchdowns, with the Colts (five touchdowns) and Bucs (four touchdowns) notching six of their scores on the ground.

    The Bills play the Patriots this week — who are one of the run-heaviest teams inside the 10-yard-line this year.

    The Texans have allowed a pair of teams to score 4+ touchdowns against them in the last five weeks.

    This week, the Texans play the Chargers — who are the only team that has scored 4+ offensive touchdowns in four of the last five weeks.

    The Packers (not on the Main Slate), Colts (not on the Main Slate), and Bucs have scored 4+ offensive touchdowns in three of the last five weeks.

    The Bills, 49ers (not on the Main Slate), Vikings, and Steelers are the remaining teams to have scored 4+ offensive touchdowns twice in the last five weeks.

    Putting all this together, the Chargers vs the Texans looks like the highest-probability spot on the slate for offensive scoring, with the Chiefs and Rams not too far behind them. The Steelers and Vikings are viable in their games (respectively) against the Chiefs and Rams; the beat-up Bucs could still easily put up four touchdowns vs the Panthers; the Seahawks have sneaky potential against the Bears; and the Patriots backfield has sneaky potential against the Bills.

    And even with all that, we could dive into cases to be made for the Bengals vs the Ravens (and even the Ravens vs the Bengals) and the Eagles vs the Giants, while teams like the Jags and Jets against one another and the Lions and Falcons against one another cannot be completely overlooked.

    This is a longer setup to this question than normal, but it’s some fun background before asking :: are there any teams // games that you feel have a better shot at 4+ offensive touchdowns (and enough upside for 5+ offensive touchdowns) than others, such that you find them standing out to you above the other options available at this point in the week?


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    Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week!

    We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

    Willing To Lose

    Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

    *This writing is as of late Thursday night, if any players below are affected by COVID, I’ll be in the Discord Sunday morning with updates* 

    It’s Week 16, and by now, we’ve preached enough in this space and across The Oracle all season long, so I’ll keep this intro section brief, hitting on a few core foundations and then getting right after it on the plays and strategies that could go overlooked this Sunday.

    This slate is unique in its own way simply because it’s taking place on a holiday weekend. Add in the COVID news and adjustments the NFL players and DFS players are making, and we have a chaotic weekend ahead. The great news is that on OWS, we’re here for the agility. As we learned last week, our community is uniquely positioned to profit off others’ laziness and inability to react and be flexible with their lineup-building processes.

    This week, when you lock in lineups for Sunday, make sure you cover the news, search for ceilings, and build lineups like nobody’s watching. I’ll continue to drive this home, but the easiest way to be unique is really to be in your vacuum. You’ve read enough content by now, and developed and sharpened your own process that your initial thoughts and analysis should be enough. So long as they are your thoughts. If you want to take down big prizes, you need to be yourself. Stay within your typical boundaries, and add a little bit of discomfort somewhere. And who knows, maybe this will be your week!

    Patrick Mahomes + two Chiefs skill position players (+ game stack)

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    Sonic’s MME Pool

    Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play


    Merry Christmas OWS Fam!!

    Hope you and yours are having a good time and prioritizing the finer things in life. I’ve chillin by the fire with the family, summarizing the status of damn-near every relevant player on the slate so you don’t have to. I’m truly a selfless individual. 

    News is still flying in as a type this at Noon PST so stay on your toes.

    Before you make your final decisions on Sunday, do yourself a favor…go to The Oracle and read JM’s lead in to Question #2. It’s imperative not just to see how his brain is working through this slate, but it will open your own mind towards developing thoughts of your own. As my family back east would say “it’s wicked good shit, dude.”

    I’m not really focusing on Late Swap templates this week, just FYI. Afternoon games aren’t plentiful. 

    If you’re going to play, be sure to either play with a small percentage of your bankroll and make it simply recreational and fun, or budget your time and really focus on the details. There is an edge this week for those who manage to allocate their time optimally. 

    Good luck in tournaments this weekend. Hope you all tie for 2nd. I’m coming in hot!
    LFG!!


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    QB:

    RB:

    WR:

    TE:

    DST:

    SuperDraft Strategy

    Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

    It’s Week 16, and we’re closing in on the end of the regular season. I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP SIX times now after a third-place finish last week, and I’m determined to do it this year. Butttt, I’m taking this week off so it won’t be Week 16 . . . but maybe it could be you! There’s still overlay on Superdraft every week, so if you aren’t playing there, why not?

    Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

    First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

    Week 16 Overview:

    Before I dig into the positions, I just want to note that similarly to last week, this week is WILD with uncertainty. There are soooo many players being put on the COVID list and it’s quite likely that even though I’m writing this on Friday, the landscape of the slate could change significantly by Sunday morning. Be ready to adjust!

    Quarterback:

    I’m always happy when my highest projected quarterbacks on Superdraft are actually good overall plays and not some dude like Jake Fromm. Phew. This week, my top QBs are Justin Herbert with a 1.2x multiplier (pretty awesome considering the Chargers have the highest team total on the slate), Tyler Huntley (still at 1.45x coming off of his huge game last week), and Jalen Hurts (always in play because of his elite rushing upside). I’m also interested in having some tournament exposure to Drew Lock at 1.65x (he’s high risk but also a gunslinger with some upside), Russell Wilson at 1.3x, and then Nick Foles at a whopping 1.9x going up against one of the league’s weaker secondaries. There’s also some guy named Tim Boyle starting for Detroit this week at a 1.8x multiplier against the Falcons, which I think is at least worth some consideration if you’re multi-entering.

    Running Back:

    The “best RB plays” are pretty clear this week. Justin Jackson has a 1.65x multiplier against the Texans with Austin Ekeler out. Ronald Jones is at 1.4x against Carolina with no Leonard Fournette. Alexander Mattison has seen absolutely massive workloads when Dalvin Cook has missed games, but a 1.2x multiplier is only decent, especially going up against a really strong Rams defense. I’d prefer Joe Mixon at 1.2x, if dipping my toes into the lower-multiplier area (or James Robinson at 1.15x against the atrocious Jets D). But there’s a lot of uncertainty here, too. I think you could take shots on guys like Ameer Abdullah at 1.85x and hope he gets more work as the pass-catching back going up against the Bucs. There’s also more value that could open up: Miles Sanders is questionable for the Eagles, Rhamondre Stevenson was ruled out and Damien Harris is questionable for the Patriots.

    Wide Receiver:

    As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

    • Cooper Kupp is still hanging around with a 1x multiplier, and he’s still my top-projected wide receiver. Hard to avoid this dude.
    • DJ Moore is at 1.35x against one of the biggest pass funnel secondaries in the NFL.
    • Tee Higgins is still at a rather egregious 1.55x multiplier in a great matchup against a banged-up Ravens defense.
    • Diontae Johnson at 1.35x still projects as one of the highest-volume receivers on the slate.
    • On the riskier side, Nico Collins should be the WR1 for the Texans and has a juicy 2x multiplier with no Brandin Cooks. 
    • Antonio Brown was “priced up” to a 1.2x multiplier, but he should still be the WR1 for one of the highest-scoring and highest pass rate offenses in the league.

    Tight End:

    Travis Kelce being on the slate means he has a 1x multiplier, which kind of shoves every other tight end’s multiplier downwards. Mark Andrews was at 1x last week, but he’s 1.15 this week, and so on down the line. I think it’s reasonable to play Kelce as he’s one of the few tight ends who has a ceiling of 30+ raw points. I also really like Rob Gronkowski with the Bucs missing both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans; Dallas Goedert at 1.3x as the primary receiver for the Eagles; and Mark Andrews makes a great bring-back in BAL/CIN stacks. Kyle Pitts is also hanging out at 1.4x and this is one of the best matchups he’s going to have all year . . . surely, he has to have a ceiling game SOMETIME, right?

    Overall Strategy:

    One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Jake Fromm look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Ben Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

    • This is a week of pretty gross games. There are no games with totals over 50 and just two with totals over 45 (LAR/MIN and PIT/KC). Those games don’t feel super stackable to me as they’re mostly filled with lower-multiplier plays, though I don’t think you’re crazy if you did something like, I don’t know, Matt Stafford with Kupp and then one higher-multiplier receiver. 
    • My highest projected quarterback is Justin Herbert, who isn’t very stackable. I think you could play Herbert with Justin Jackson to get all the Chargers touchdowns, but personally, I would rather look for a spot where I could feel better about stacking the QB with a pass-catcher or two. 
    • My overall favorite game to stack is BAL/CIN. It’s a close spread, the Bengals put up 41 points last time in this matchup, Tyler Huntley has certainly looked capable as a backup QB, and we have some solid multipliers on the skill position players (especially Marquise Brown and Tee Higgins). 
    • I also like Drew Lock stacks (yuck, did I really say that), as Lock has a nice 1.65x multiplier and his receivers all have very attractive multipliers as well. This is a high risk one, but Lock will chuck it downfield, which can sometimes lead to multiple turnovers, but can also lead to long touchdowns.
    • Similarly, and I want to throw up writing this, but I think you can stack the Jags/Jets game a bit (if I were doing 150 this week, I’d probably have 5-10 stacks of this game). Both Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are aggressive QBs (especially Wilson), both have high multipliers, and their pass-catching groups are filled with high multipliers as well. 
    • Overall, this is a week without a lot of great game environments. We have to make the best of what we’ve got, but I still prefer stacking to trying to get each individual piece of a roster “right” in an uncorrelated way. 

    Edge Bets

    Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting

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    @FriendofFantasy

    The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active this season. There are bettors in there dailey talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and College sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 16! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!

    Week 15 Recap

    EDGE BETS Week 15: 3-0
    EDGE BETS 2021 Results: 24-22

    Jeff Wilson: Over 62.5 Rushing Yards 

    Result: Win (110 Rushing Yards)

    Jeff Wilson was in a classic smash spot after two less than stellar starts to bounce back with a vengeance against the hapless Atlanta Falcons rush defense. We could be sure that whoever was running the ball behind San Francisco’s elite run blocking unit would pile up yardage against Atlanta’s 27th ranked defense in yards per carry. With the 49ers in control throughout the game after an early Atlanta field goal, Wilson compiled 21 rushing attempts for 110 rushing yards and a touchdown. Wilson received 21 of 29 backfield carries and finally delivered an efficient day on the ground for both his prop betting and DFS backers.

    Chuba Hubbard: Under 42.5 Rushing Yards 

    Result: Win (40 Rushing Yards)

    Chuba Hubbard was largely inefficient outside of an early 21 yard run in the first quarter, carrying the ball eight times for 40 yards in a 31-14 loss to the Buffalo Bills. As expected, Cam Newton did most of the damage on the ground in this one, carrying 15 times for 71 yards and a touchdown near the goaline. Hubbard is now a part-time back, early down “grinder”, that must compete with one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the game. Expect Hubbard to continue to be limited to modest volume in games Carolina trails early. 

    James Robinson: Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts

    Result: Win (18 Rushing Attempts)

    James Robinson failed once again to surpass 18 carries in a game this season as the Houston Texans won the battle of bottom feeders in the NFL. As expected, Robinson did dominate running back carries (18/19) but was not forced into increased volume as some expected with the firing of coach Urban Meyer. Robinson did see a large increase in snaps without Meyer, something we can look to this week if Robinson’s yardage props take a hit after a failed trip to Houston. Trevor Lawrence carried five times for 21 yards, operating as the second option for rushing attempts with little talent remaining in the Jacksonville Jaguars RB room. Robinson averaged 4.2 yards per carry, with a long of 16 yards, but the game script did not favor high volume in a matchup Houston controlled as the Jags entered the second half down 20-10. 

    Personal Prop Bets Placed

    Week 1: +10.0 Units

    Week 2: -1.1 Units

    Week 3: 0.0 Units 

    Week 4: +4.65 Units

    Week 5: +3.1 Units

    Week 6: +2.4 Units

    Week 7: -0.3 Units

    Week 8: -5.7 Units

    Week 9: +11.75 Units

    Week 10: +5.8 Units

    Week 11: -0.13 Units

    Week 12: +6.67 Units

    Week 13: +2.18 Units

    Week 14: -0.1 Units

    Week 15: +1.47 Units

    2021: +40.78 Units

    Week 16 Edge Bets

    Matt Ryan Under 248.5 Passing Yards

    Book: DraftKings (-115), BetMGM (245.5 -105)

    By Alex88:

    “Averaging his lowest attempts (34.3), yards per game (238.6), TD% (3.8%), and QBR (48.2) in the past four seasons”

    By Hilow:

    “After starting the season with the league’s ninth-highest overall pass rate over the first eight weeks, the Falcons have dropped all the way down to the 12th-lowest pass rate over the previous month of play.”

    “Since the Falcons have become much more balanced later in the season, and since we know they don’t alter their offensive game plan heavily this year, quarterback Matt Ryan has averaged only 32.5 pass attempts per game over the previous month of play.”

    “Along with the modest pass attempts total comes a 30th-ranked intended air yards per pass attempt value of just 6.7 (lower than Davis Mills and Ben Roethlisberger!).”

    “The much more likely scenario involves two offenses that have largely struggled to get much of anything going all season playing to a relative slugfest (stalled drives, inefficiency in the red zone leading to field goals, and mistakes leading to turnovers).”

    “Matt Ryan and whichever quarterback starts for the Lions remain largely out of consideration for me, personally, unless utilized in a game stack.”

    Reasy’s Reasoning

    Matt Ryan has failed to top 250 passing yards in five of his last six games while failing to top 33 pass attempts in seven of his last eight. As outlined in the NFL Edge, Atlanta has conducted a fundamental shift in play calling over the last month of action as they have dropped their pass rate to the 12th lowest in the NFL. This is not the same Matt Ryan we have come accustomed to over the last half decade, and without the likes of Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones, Ryan has really struggled this year to accumulate the yardage of years past with decreasing arm strength and explosive playmakers at his accompanying skilled positions. Ryan is completing 68% of his passes, good for tenth in the NFL this season, but his lack of intended air yards combined with arguably (is it?) worst supporting cast of explosive playmakers after the catch has left his fans wanting more when it comes to counting stats. With Detroit trotting out a non-Jared Goff starting QB this week, expect Atlanta to stick to their new normal and escape Week 16 with a close win at home.

    James Robinson Over 73.5 Rushing Yards

    Book: DraftKings (-115), BetMGM (-115)

    By Alex88:

    “With Urban Meyer gone, James Robinson’s snaps jumped from 35 in Week 14 to 59 last week.”

    “NYJ ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (36.3).”

    By Hilow:

    “Two teams with moderate situation-neutral paces of play and rush-pass rates that both increase pace of play and pass rates in negative game scripts – this is important to us in our quest for hidden upside.”

    “The Jaguars hold a low 55% pass rate with the score within seven points this season (12th-lowest in the league).”

    “James Robinson is back to being the bellcow of this backfield (84% snap rate last week without Carlos Hyde, in the first game without former head coach Urban Meyer).”

    “Bevell and Schottenheimer’s offenses were built around dynamic run-blocking in the run game and deep passing through the air.”

    “Since we know the Jaguars have been far more likely to lean on the run in competitive games, we have to approach the rest of this write-up through the lens of individual game flows. Should they stay competitive, or even play with a lead, we have to assume an increased rush rate primarily through James Robinson.”

    “The matchup on the ground yields a well above average, and borderline elite 4.47 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jets defense ceding 36.3 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, the most in the league by a wide margin (like, six full points per game more than the second-worst team).”

    “Although not necessarily the likeliest outcomes from a real-world football perspective, the likeliest path to fantasy goodness for DFS comes via a game environment that the Jaguars can control. In this scenario, expect James Robinson to be utilized heavily in the best matchup he’ll have seen all season.”

    By JM:

    ​​”The Jets face the lowest opponent pass play rate in the NFL, leading to the most opponent RB rush attempts, the second most RB rushing yards, the most RB rushing touchdowns (five more than any other team).”

    “Last week, James Robinson was over 50% owned in the Milly Maker and over 70% owned in high-dollar single-entry contests — and this week, he has an even better setup.”

    “I have no faith in the Zach Wilson Jets (especially with no Elijah Moore or Corey Davis), which means I’m not afraid of the one game flow that could A) bury Robinson, and B) lead to the Jags wideouts becoming high-probability bets.”

    “With that in mind, Robinson is very attractive to me, and no other pieces on the Jags stand out.”

    Reasy’s Reasoning

    I see this game much like JM; I have no faith in Zach Wilson to create a game script in which the Jacksonville Jaguars have to abandon the run- something they have shown the propensity to do in games they have trailed. On top of that, the Jets have been hit hard by Covid this week, with as many as 16 players including four defensive starters missing from the lineup in Week 16. On top of that, the NYJ head coach Robert Saleh will also miss this game due to the virus. The Jets could also be without multiple defensive starters due to injury. What a mess. The Jaguars have made it through the week relatively unscathed with just three players being placed on the C19 list. Laviska Shenault, one of the three players expected to be inactive, has had a small rushing role as of late, and can only be seen as another positive in Robinsons Week 16 favor. The Jets have given up averages of 26.5 RB rush attempts and over 120 rushing yards per game through 15 weeks, numbers we can expect James Robinson to accumulate the vast majority of with Carlos Hyde on season-ending IR. While this is a pace down game, possibly limiting the high end of Robinson’s production, we can safely expect more than enough efficiency and usage for Robinson to surpass the 74 rushing yards needed to cash this prop, as RB rooms have accomplished this feat quite comfortably in 13/15 games this season.


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