Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

What a week it was for the community! I don’t always follow the specific wins, but a quick visit to the Binks channel in Discord or the OWS X feed on Monday, and it was clear to see plenty of big Week 15 scores from the collective community. If you cleaned up last week, congratulations! If you didn’t, good news, you’re just as likely to win this week as any other user who won last week!

One of the real benefits of being a part of OWS, as you’ve read in this space before or via JM and other contributors in various forums, is the way OWS uses DFS as a proxy for life. Sure, for most, DFS is a hobby, one that we hope is lucrative. While DFS is a game, however, it’s really one big psychology experiment. There is an actual sport that underlies the game (in this case the NFL), but for all intents and purposes, DFS is a real-life experiment that creates contests serving as opportunities to outmaneuver the other users trying to do the same thing. It’s why optimal doesn’t matter as much as beating your opponents does.

It’s also why lessons like game theory, how to be contrarian, where to find leverage, identifying sharp vs. unsharp plays, and underowned, risky environments pays off. Because it’s pretty much one big game of psychology that repeats itself with minor tweaks (contests, users, structures) on every slate.

As much as you’ve consumed and learned this season, we’re now in Week 16; and, while I should be keeping these introductions briefer and briefer, there’s one concept I want to bubble up this week, as it’s one I will be applying in my DFS endeavors this week: ‘An expert in any field, is an expert from the past.’

Think about it. The only thing we know is what we’ve seen. An expert is someone who has crafted a way of thinking, performing, and executing thoughts or efforts based on historical events, data, etc. What’s cool is that this type of practice is exactly how an expert becomes eminent in a field. What’s cooler, and intriguing, is that this expert emerged from a prior world: the past. So when we think about listening to an expert (in any field), we have to consider this factor. They are just as likely to be wrong about the future as we are. Their advantage lies in frameworks, and it’s likely their approach and thoughts will be sharper than ours, but they are still just as likely to be wrong about the future as we are.

You should still listen to experts. But you should also be your own expert this week.

Now, let’s move on to tackle Week 16.

Week 16 :: Angles

With the advent of NFL Saturday football this week, we have an 11-game (DK) // 12-game (FD) main slate on Sunday. I’m going to separate the teams into tiers this week because such tiers look obvious when we take a first stab at the implied team totals. Not to say implied totals are everything, but as you’ve read about here all season, they are as good a place as any to begin.

At the top, there’s the Bills, Bengals, and Lions, with implied totals at or above 27 points. Buffalo, in particular, is looking at 30+ in a matchup hosting New England. They’ve notably scored 30 or more points in eight straight games (unreal), so this number feels right. The last time we had a team implied for 30 or more points it was the Detroit Lions back in Week 11, when they posted 52 points on the Jacksonville Jaguars and all of Goff, St. Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery, and Jameson Williams returned value. Something to think about with Buffalo, as the Patriots’ defense shouldn’t pose a threat to stop them from hitting 30 points this week. The week should start with laying out how Buffalo will score their points.

Cincinnati is still alive for the playoffs, barely, and hosts the Browns and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. We’d probably feel better if Jameis Winston was starting, but with DTR, it’s going to require a specific game script to keep Burrow throwing the ball late into the second half. That’s one way it can play out. The other is of course a Bengals frustration win, where they pour it on offensively and make a statement to the rest of the league in case the playoff door is left open.

Detroit, having just lost Montgomery, now goes to Chicago to face a team reeling after looking inept in Minnesota on Monday night. It’s a short week for them but they get the benefit of an undermanned Lions team, at least. Detroit needs this game to remain atop the NFC, and Dan Campbell doesn’t know another way other than coaching his team to fight for every yard. I’d expect them to be full throttle here, but we’ll have to see how that plays out with some new personnel.

Tier two consists of the Falcons (and Michael Penix), Cardinals, Rams, Eagles, and Vikings. All of these teams are between 23 and 26 implied points and at least three-point favorites. We don’t know what Atlanta will look like, so they are the great unknown here as they host the Giants, and the second unknown is what game environment will emerge between Philadelphia and Washington. Their two meetings in 2023 combined for 69 and 65 total points, while their meeting earlier in 2024 ended just 26-18. The Cardinals get the Carolina Panthers; the Rams are at the suddenly fantasy-friendly Jets; and the Vikings are in Seattle on a short week. 

At initial glance, I’d rank the possibilities for shootout game environments emerging here in this tier as 1) PHI // WAS, 2) LAR // NYJ, and 3) NYG // ATL. Beyond the top three offenses to look at here, this middle tier is ripe for underowned game environments.

One tier below in the 11-game DK slate will include a game such as SF // MIA, along with offenses like the Colts and Panthers. Neither Indy nor Carolina will be expected to do much here, but the possibilities still exist. Indianapolis in particular is playing Tennessee in their dome, and with the in-division matchup, we know the range of outcomes is wider. San Francisco, like Cincinnati, is all but eliminated from playoff contention, but it will be curious to see what version of their offense we get if they finally get to play in mild, warm weather. The matchup with Miami is not likely to garner much attention with how the Dolphins looked last week, so consider this No. 3 or No. 4 on my initial game rankings from above.

There are a few other games on this slate not mentioned, but in a game such as the Jags // Raiders, the only hope is that bad offense can beat bad defense (which can happen). The important thing is this: We’re at the point in the NFL season where attrition has set in. Effort will wane, and the unexpected will happen more frequently.

Remember to think about the outcomes you believe in, and not just take what experts write on a screen as definitive. Let the data dictate your attention, but be creative in imagining the outcomes. Week 16 will be a story in and of itself, and we only know what the cover page looks like at the moment.

Be your own expert this week, get out to the site this weekend, and enjoy the view from the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!

~Larejo

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 16 Overview

Well, folks…..we did it. Last week I WON the Draftkings Play-Action tournament on the Afternoon Only slate. It is their $3, 20-max tournament with $10k for first place and just under 40,000 total entries. This is the second time in the last three seasons I put up the highest score across all contests in the Afternoon Only slate, not too shabby. Again, the smaller player pool and understanding of the game/contests gives us the chance for a huge edge on these shorter slates, so let’s not pass it up.

This week we have a four game slate, one less than a week ago. The Bills are huge favorites and projected for a ton of points, but the game script will likely be VERY different from what they’ve had the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the other three games all have point spreads of less than a field goal and game totals between 40 and 45. Miami and San Francisco are two offenses with strong reputations who have disappointed and are dealing with injuries but have a chance to turn into a shootout. Meanwhile, we have value options and condensed passing games in the JAX/LVR game and explosive players on both sides in MIN/SEA. There are a lot of ways to go on this slate and what stands out to me at first glance is how many strong WR and TE options there are, while RB feels a little thin.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Strategy for Underdog’s “The Gauntlet” & “The Mitten”

(Updated 1/6/2025)

Overview 

• Six player snake draft comprised of 10 rounds in a Best Ball tournament format.
• Teams are made up of 10 total players with a starting lineup of 5 players – 1 QB, 2 WR/TE, 1 RB, and 1 Flex.
• (4) Round structure with the top two teams advancing out of a group of (6) in the first round, followed by two independent rounds with only one team advancing out of each from a group of (10). The finals are comprised of 300 teams in the Super Bowl with $200K up top.
• Getting out of the first round is crucial, but difficult if drafting three or more players from a bye team (Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions).
• Like a Milly Maker on DK, the payout structure is extremely top heavy. 

The final two bullets bring up an interesting dilemma as the two bye teams are the most likely to make the conference final and Super Bowl but drafting several of those players also hamper your chances of getting out of the first round. 

To win, you will likely need (at least) five players to reach the Super Bowl. This incentivizes stacking your lineups to consolidate around a few teams you are hoping can make deep playoff runs, however, an aggressive stacking strategy has its trade-offs. If you prioritize stacking elite contenders, such as the Chiefs or Lions, this will likely have you drafting some poorly projected depth players to round out your team. Someone in your first pod/round will likely have drafted studs on wild card teams and while they will have an uphill battle to win the whole tournament, these teams will have a leg up on getting out of the first round.

If you consider stacking both bye teams, you must cap that at a total of 5 players and are fighting an uphill battle to advance. The tournament is very top heavy, and the two one seeds are the most likely to advance, so we will discuss below some of the strategies to best balance this predicament and try to thread a very thin needle to advance a team to the final 300 teams.

Roster Composition

Week 16 presents us with a two-game slate with a staggered start. What this essentially means is that you will have 50% of the puzzle after the 1 pm game is completed with time to make edits before the 4:30 game kicks off. Like Thanksgiving, this knowledge presents us with a huge advantage. While this advantage may be the case for the slate overall, the biggest decision hinges on whether you are rostering Lamar Jackson ($8,200) since he’s $1,800 more than Mahomes. All three of the non-Lamar QBs (Mahomes, Stroud, and Wilson) are closely clumped together in pricing with just a few hundred separating them between $5,700 and $6,400.

Ravens

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Learn how to Use The Workbook

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

The Strange Gibbs slate is one without direction beyond the top two chalkiest plays. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and Brenton Strange are expected to garner scary ownership, but the field appears uncertain where to go after that. We’re seeing this uncertainty reflected in ownership expectations, largely showcased via quarterback ownership. Anthony Richardson and Michael Penix Jr. combine to account for 30% or more of the expected ownership on the slate while no other quarterback sniffs even 10%. Wide receiver ownership is once again concentrated heavily on the mid-range in player pricing. The field just seems to be lost, which the state of the slate likely has a large responsibility for.

The biggest influence on those expected tendencies is likely the absence of a true “top game environment,” with the field then adopting an overreliance on median projections. We’ve talked about those tendencies a bunch this season, which represent a departure from optimal theory in DFS. As we know from our game theory knowledge, any departure from optimal incurs a subsequent hit to the expected value, but if you aren’t making up for that dip in EV with something designed to boost EV, you’re simply making a suboptimal play. With that understanding, we must ensure any departure from optimal theory is purposefully generating exploitation on the field that brings a boost to EV. Recent tendencies from the field indicate suboptimal play, which is exactly what we will continue to leverage moving forward.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

JAHMYR GIBBS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. From my write-up of this game:

“The Lions have yet to play a game this season without both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but they did play three games early in the 2023 season without Montgomery. In those three games, Gibbs held snap rates of 60%, 87%, and 70% while handling opportunity counts of 19, 21, and 31. Also remember, those were his third ever professional game, his fifth ever professional game, and his sixth ever professional game. Montgomery saw snap shares of 71% in the game Gibbs got hurt in Week 4 of 2023 and 75% in the next game without Gibbs in Week 5. The stage certainly appears to be set for Gibbs to see a massive workload considering this team is currently fighting to hold onto their top seed in the NFC (they currently hold tie-breakers over the Vikings for head-to-head record (they play once more this season) and the Eagles for best winning percentage in conference games), despite early-week rumblings from head coach Dan Campbell saying they need to be smart with Gibbs in the absence of Montgomery. The matchup on the ground is borderline elite against a Bears defense allowing the second most yards before contact per attempt (2.52), 4.7 yards per carry (27^th), and 22.7 fantasy points per game (fourth most) to opposing backfields this season.”

Consider Gibbs the top on-paper play at any position.

BRENTON STRANGE

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Brenton Strange saw 12 targets on 46 Mac Jones pass attempts a week ago, but that game marked only the second time in five starts that Jones threw for even a single touchdown, and the first time he attempted more than 32 passes in a game this season. I would classify that performance as an extreme outlier rather than the norm, making Strange a much shakier bet at extreme ownership. I’m fine looking elsewhere this week.

CHASE BROWN

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Enough has been said about Chase Brown’s current role in this offense to where we don’t need to restate it again here. Suffice it to say, Brown’s recent workload and involvement in the offense have been nothing short of elite, but his salary has finally caught up to his production and volume. He’s a fine play on paper.

JAMES CONNER

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. James Conner has seen between 18 and 23 opportunities 10 times this season but has not seen more than 23 opportunities once, making it highly likely we see him handle 18-23 opportunities against the Panthers. The good news is that his matchup is pristine, with the obvious caveat that his path to an elite fantasy score is much more narrow than other backs priced in his range due to the likely volume constraints. That likely holds true even with Emari Demercado on injured reserve and Trey Benson ruled out as the team has DeeJay Dallas on the active roster (questionable, illness) and can elevate Michael Carter and/or Tony Jones from the practice squad. Solid on-paper play, albeit one that is clearly a tier or two below Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley.

MALIK NABERS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Here’s a fun fact regarding these Giants: the Giants have two passing touchdowns in their last nine games. Lolz. Malik Nabers has seen double-digit targets in nine of 12 games this season, keeping his weekly floor high, but he has very few paths to an elite fantasy score in the current state of this team.

DJ MOORE

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. DJ Moore is a solid on-paper play but I prefer using him in conjunction with Caleb Williams rather than a targeted one-off, the latter of which seems to be the preferred method by the field this week.

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Sunday Morning Update

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Anthony Richardson
Saquon Barkley
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jalen Coker
Josh Downs
Malik Washington
Austin Hooper
Hunter Henry
Seahawks

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Hurts // Saquon

Saquon is the forgotten man among the four most expensive running backs on DK…in spite of the fact that he has five games this year that have outscored the best game from every other starting running back on this slate(!). He’s hardly more expensive than any of the other top four, and because his valleys are slightly lower than the other guys, people will avoid him. Are we playing for first place, or not?

Saquon is an obvious top play on his own; but even better than that :: when he doesn’t hit, Hurts often does. Since the Eagles’ bye, Hurts has scored 29+ DK points in 40% of his games, as has Saquon. Who else is doing what these two are doing?

In MME (or even on hand-builds for SE/3-Max), splitting these two across a large chunk of your rosters (with a small dash of rosters on which they overlap) is a clear +EV angle.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“$7.2k Puka”

[ redacted ] // [ Redacted ]

Story:

“$7.2k Puka strikes again”

Why It Works:

Over his last five games, Puka Nacua has posted scores of 17.8 // 44.8 // 17.3 // 23.7 // 28.3. Everyone is aware of this, and he tends to draw somewhat heavy ownership.

Over their last five games, “$7.2k Puka” has posted scores of 13.3 // 28.7 // 25.3 // 19.8 // 21.7. The ceiling for $7.2k Puka hasn’t been “44.8,” but the rest of the numbers line up pretty similarly. As the name suggests, $7.2k Puka costs $800 less than Puka this week. Also, no one will be on it.

How It Works:

Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry comprise $7.2k Puka, in a matchup against a Bills team that should establish a dominant lead, allowing the Patriots to rack up passing volume. Playing these two together is a unique way to save salary while opening the door to a really nice range of “guaranteed points.” This also allows plenty of flexibility elsewhere on your roster. This is a foundational piece that can be uses in contests of any size, and if these two combine for 25+, you’ll have a shot at being pretty far ahead of your competition in the “salary saver” category (with Brenton Strange being the major obstacle in the way of this one paying off :: if Strange goes for, say, 18+ at high ownership, the edge gained on this pairing would obviously be lost). This isn’t enough to win you a tourney on its own, and other rosters will have similar salary structures, meaning you still want to think about doing something unique or different from here. But this is a nice starting point for salary savings, where each guy is central to the Patriots offense, and when one is doing well, the other is typically doing well also.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Fly Eagles”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Saquon // Hurts

In the Blue Chip section, we talked about the consistency with which one or the other of these two has hit, making it +EV to consider splitting these two up (with a small amount of overlap) across a decent chunk of MME rosters. This first rule says, “On at least 60% of all rosters, include one or two of these players.” (Note: you would also want to prescribe individual ownership to Saquon and Hurts, to make sure you’re getting this split at the level you want it; for me, probably 40% Saquon, 20% Hurts.)

Saquon + Hurts

This rule says, “On at least 92% of Saquon rosters, do not include Hurts.”

Saquon + Hurts 2

In order to make sure we get some overlap, this rule says, “On at least 5% of Saquon rosters, include Hurts.”

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Jalen Hurts || Anthony Richardson || >< || Caleb Williams || Michael Penix || >< || Matthew Stafford || Aaron Rodgers

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback ::

• Michael Penix Jr. – QBs with this kind of pedigree, a great matchup, a stable of playmakers, a good offensive scheme, and a $4,500 salary don’t come around often.
• Matthew Stafford // Aaron Rodgers – I like this game environment as a whole for stacking and building around for a few reasons. The defenses have been beatable by WRs, both teams have clear top-2 WRs to use in team/game stacks (one that has been more dependable and the other that has a depressed salary and low ownership), and veteran QBs who aren’t afraid to let it rip.
• Brock Purdy – The 49ers running back room is depleted to the point where we can expect them to have to rely on the passing game more than normal. The 49ers WR/TE options all have modest salaries and the matchup with Miami is appealing. Purdy has 24+ points in 5 of 13 starts this season and should be very low owned. I don’t mind Tua on the other side of this game, either.
• Salary Savers: Geno Smith, Aidan O’Connell, Mac Jones, Dorian Thompson-Robinson

Running Back :: 

• Jahmyr Gibbs – Not much to say here. Clear lead back on an elite rushing offense facing the league’s 31st-ranked run defense.
• Saquon Barkley – Barkley has over 36 Draftkings points in 5 of 14 games this season, including 36.8 against the Commanders. 
• Bijan Robinson – Elite talent in a great matchup. Play him with his new QB or on his own, the world is your oyster.
• James Conner – Conner’s top-2 backups are both out and the Cardinals have to win out to have a chance at the playoffs – he’s the guy. Elite matchup this week.
• Patrick Taylor Jr. – Lead RB for the 49ers at $5,200. Not as talented as Guerendo and the matchup is just “fine”, not elite, but he opens things up for you.
• Breece Hall – Hall at only $6,100 in a good matchup is too hard for me to pass up. He will have low ownership to boot. There is obvious risk with his role potentially being less than it used to be but his talent, salary, and ownership make him worth the gamble in a potentially fun game environment.
• Salary Savers: Jerome Ford, Tyjae Spears (if Pollard is out), Ameer Abdullah, Alexander Mattison, Ray Davis

Wide Receiver :: 

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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

The Good, the Bad, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson

Some are elite, some are questionable, and others are just downright gross. If you decide to pay up for one of the “good” quarterbacks, your rosters will require some creative adjustments elsewhere. Yikes. To make competitive lineups, we’ll likely have to roster some chalk, but the key to unlocking upside is finding those lower-owned plays everyone else isn’t flocking to.

These are contrarian moves I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Sometimes we’ll miss, but the ones that do hit will help us lap the field.

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

Josh Allen/Rhamondre Stevenson

Momentum is a real thing. Josh Allen has been on fire for two weeks straight, and the field is betting it comes to a halt this week because the Patriots offense won’t push the game environment. But here’s the thing — if the Bills blow out the Patriots early, Stevenson’s receiving role will see a big boost as New England plays catch-up. Conversely, if the Patriots somehow surprise everyone with a positive performance, Stevenson will likely be a key part of that, serving as both a ground and air threat. At 1.3% pOWN and a $5900 price point, his presence will lead your roster away from the typical build.

Rome Odunze/Amon-Ra St.Brown

This is just too much teammate-related leverage to resist. It’s hard to run an optimizer this week without getting Jahmyr Gibbs and one of Keenan Allen or DJ Moore on your roster. The ownership on these three will be through the roof, and for good reason. But football is weird, and variance is a thing. What if Odunze’s high aDOT role delivers more value than his teammates’ high-volume short and intermediate routes, and touchdown variance swings his way? The Bears were stingy against the position early, but less so lately, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is no ordinary dude.

At around 4% ownership between them, there’s plenty of upside to steal a tournament here.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• The top tier only has one game and it barely qualifies for the upper echelon. DET/CHI (48) is the only game that breaks the 48-point threshold and sneaks its way into the highest category. 
• The middle tier holds most of the slate with nine games: AZ/CAR (47), CLE/CIN (47), LAR/NYJ (46.5), NE/BUF (46.5), PHL/WAS (45.5), SF/MIA (44.5), MIN/SEA (42.5), TEN/IND (42/5), and NYG/ATL (42) make up a tightly packed middle group with many games that could break to the upside or downside in total points.
• The bottom tier is as small as the top tier, holding only one game. JAX/LV (40) is expected to generate the least total points but is also a game with two weak defenses. 

Pawn – QB Michael Penix Jr.  ($4,500)       

Penix is set to make his NFL debut after being a surprise top 10 pick in the draft. I’d be lying if I said this play was anything but speculative. I have no idea how Penix is going to look and you shouldn’t trust anyone who tells you they know. What I do know is that uncertainty is often the basis for large DFS wins, and that the Falcons are still trying to win the division, which must mean they believe Penix gives them their best chance to win now. If the Falcons were already eliminated, I’d look at this play differently since they might be turning to Penix to see what they have for the future. It’s not an easy decision to bench a guy you just gave a nine-figure deal to during a playoff race. There is no way Atlanta is making that decision unless Penix is showing them something in practice. So, what do we know about Penix? We know that he was a big-armed gunslinger in college who loved to chuck it down the field. We know that he’s facing the Giants who have been abused (29^th in DVOA) through the air. We know that he’s playing at home, in a must win game, and is priced like a punt. We know that because of all the uncertainty around him, the other quality options at QB, and the likely popularity of Bijan Robinson ($8,100), that Penix will probably be moderately owned. This is a classic “play it before everyone sees it” spot. If playing Penix, I prefer stacking him with Darnell Mooney ($5,500) over Drake London ($6,400). Mooney is coming off a one target dud, but he played 91% of the snaps and has been used as a deep threat. If Penix hits, it’s probably because he connected on a bomb, and there is a good chance that bomb will go to Mooney. I’ve lost before, and I’m not afraid to lose again. Remember the saying, “What do you win when you’re right?” Penix has the chance to win you a lot of money if you’re right. Be brave. Play Penix.

Knight – WR DK Metcalf ($5,500)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 16 Topics

1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. Seeing Is Believing

3. Stack SZN

4. Value Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?

The Answers ::

JM >>

Quite a bit is unique about this slate.

Given a variety of macro factors (explored throughout the weekend), it’s perfectly reasonable to expect that none of the high-priced quarterbacks put the slate out of reach, and that none of the mid-range quarterbacks post anything approaching a “had to have it” score. This is making “cheap QB” an unusually popular approach this week.

Similarly, we don’t have many high-priced wide receivers who look like strong bets to put the slate out of reach, but the $5k/$6k range at the position is absolutely full of viable, high-upside options.

Add in the fact that there are a number of very attractive high-priced running backs, and the general approach to the slate is pretty clear :: pay down at quarterback, load up on mid-range wideouts, and stock your running back spots with a couple of studs. The funny thing: I’ve purposely attacked some practice builds forcing approaches different than this, and even on those, I find myself settling into a build that looks somewhat similar to the structure laid out above.

On top of this, it seems common this week to have a fairly large RB pool, a fairly large WR pool, and a lack of clear direction on where to go at quarterback. This week is pretty wide-open.

In the Angles Pod and my Player Grid, I examine exactly how I’m handling all this — but it’s definitely a unique week, in distinctly unique ways.

Xandamere >>

Hmm, how about…weird ownership week? We have several cheap but legitimately bad (and known to be bad) plays attracting ownership, like Dorian Thompson-Robinson. We have what looks like people chasing last week’s outcomes (hi, Brenton Strange), which is something we generally see less of in modern DFS vs. in years past. We have chalk low-ceiling guys like Wan’dale robinson. We have high-ceiling elite plays like Saquon Barkley appearing to go completely overlooked. 

There’s a LOT of injury-related (and benching-related) stuff on this slate, primarily at quarterback but a bit at other positions (such as Patrick Taylor being the next guy up for a 49ers offense that has consistently produced strong running back scores…and he looks like he’s going somewhat overlooked). I think that’s causing some confusion about how to approach this slate – we have bad backup QBs who are, however, in elite matchups and that’s throwing a wrench in projection systems (what’s more important? The talent of the QB or the matchup?), which drives ownership to strange places.  

Hilow >>

This slate has three unique elements from a top-level viewpoint: (1) Jahmyr Gibbs is going to be overwhelmingly chalky but it probably won’t get to the levels he should be at, (2) Saquon Barkley gets a pristine matchup and is trending to garner lower than 5% ownership, and (3) there is no shortage of poor quarterback situations. The secondary aspect of the third point above is that there are no clear top game environments, which is likely to throw the field for a loop this week. The one spot we were all looking forward to, Jameis Winston squaring off with Joe Burrow, was unceremoniously stripped away from us. That said, this is still an 11-game slate and we still have game environments that could truly take off. We still have the Lions against a now pass-heavy Bears team, we still have the Rams against a Jets team suddenly allowing massive passing production while tilting more pass-heavy themselves, we still have a divisional matchup between the Eagles and Commanders with both teams needing a win for playoff seeding, we still have the Vikings and Seahawks, and we still have the Vikings and 49ers.

Mike >>

The unique thing about this slate to me is how the aspects of each position seem to align a bit and it feels fairly clear to see the macro level of “how” things are likely to play out. What I mean by that is if we start at the QB and TE positions we can see two clear dynamics, with great value at low salaries who could reasonably put up scores that open up the rest of your roster. Specifically I am looking at Michael Penix Jr. at QB and Brenton Strange at TE. They are a combined $8k, but Penix going for 20+ wouldn’t be surprising at all against the Giants and Strange could see double digit targets again, with a touchdown likely putting him near 20 points as well. There are some other viable cheap plays at those positions as well, but the two main ones open everything else up.

Then we get to the RB position, where there are several expensive RB’s that seem to be in great spots. There are five of them priced over $7k that I am entering the week feeling confident we will see at least 2 or 3 of them score 25+. While that may not blow us away from a salary multiplier standpoint, the value at QB and TE allows us to take those great raw scores.

The final piece to this puzzle is the RB position, where as always there are some elite guys with high salaries but perhaps more importantly in the context of everything else we have the $5k to $7k range littered with good to great options of varying confidence. There are so many WRs in that range that could feasibly post a good score that it is impossible for me to ignore. Again, from a macro level it feels like we will have a dozen scores of 18+, a handful in the 25 range, and a couple of 30+. Putting it all together, cheap QB and TE with two expensive RBs and four mid-range WR’s (could include McBride, Bowers, and Jonnu in that group) is the roster construction I expect to take down GPPs this week.

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2. Seeing Is Believing

The Question ::

In the spirit of the season, let’s talk about “belief”. In this instance we are talking about belief in a player or team that may go beyond what we see on a spreadsheet. One thing that is often said around the industry is that a certain player “doesn’t have much of a ceiling”, which is usually backed up by stats showing that they haven’t posted a score of a certain level yet. Along those same lines we can see players whose inability to turn opportunities and good matchups into big scores wears down on people and eventually it gets to a point where most of the field is just ready to be done with them. However, one thing we know from history and zooming out is just because something hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it can’t. Taking that a step further…..over time, talented players tend to be more likely to eventually regress in a positive way than just being unusable again. Who can forget Week 17 a couple of years ago when Mike Evans dropped a 50-burger after a year of frustration? 

Who are a couple of players that perception is low on right now but you still believe in and think could give us a difference making performance at some point over the next three weeks as we close the 2024 season?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.

Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.

(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)

DJ Moore (CHI) OVER 5.5 Receptions

DJ Moore has 6 or more receptions since Week 11, which is exactly when Chicago made a coaching change. His aDOT has come down and his completion percentage has risen, averaging over 9 targets a game with the new coach. We expect him to go over this line a good amount of the times this slate plays out with that context.

The bet is good to: -120

Xavier Worthy (KC) OVER 39.5 rec yards

Worthy has gone over this line in 5 straight, games. Houston gives up the 7th most yards to WR and faces the 6th most targets to WR. The betting market hasn’t adjusted to his role with KC. There is a bias against Worthy, but his route tree has expanded over the season and he has at least 6 targets in the last 4 games (11 last week). We prefer his yards to receptions here.

The bet is good to: -130

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Be your own expert this week. 

You know these teams, as do the people writing and speaking to you about how this week will play out. Being this late into the season, chaos will reign supreme as we are going to get many teams who show up differently than we expected based on win-loss record, injury landscape, etc. For instance, will both Miami and San Francisco show up motivated? How about the Giants, Raiders, and Jaguars? Will the Lions play for the first round bye or be content just making the playoffs? How badly do the Bengals want to squeeze everything they can out of their season before possibly being mathematically eliminated soon? There are so many questions and so many unknowns.

You know exactly what to do. Find your angles and stick to them, and while it’s great to consume everything you can (here in The Scroll and on OWS!), do so for inspiration. We’re all writing words and giving opinions here based on the past. We don’t know how this Week 16 story will play out, but maybe you do. Build lineups like nobody’s watching! Be your own expert this week! And be Willing to Lose in Week 16!

Falcons // Giants Overstack (Penix, Bijan, Pitts, Tracy, Nabers)

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

I have referenced the book Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman many times throughout this weekly column. When I ask Chat GPT to describe the distinction between our fast thinking minds and our slow thinking ones, here’s what it says:

1. “System 1 (Fast Thinking): This is intuitive, automatic, and quick. It operates effortlessly and often relies on experience and pattern recognition. System 1 is efficient for routine decisions but can be prone to biases and errors.
2. System 2 (Slow Thinking): This is deliberate, analytical, and effortful. It requires attention and reasoning and is used for complex problem-solving and logical analysis. System 2 is slower but more accurate when fully engaged.

“Kahneman explains how these two systems interact, how System 1 dominates many situations, and how reliance on it can lead to cognitive biases and faulty judgments. The book delves into psychological research and provides insights into how understanding these processes can improve decision-making and reduce errors in judgment.”

At this point in our DFS season, you should have developed many biases and errors in your judgments about these teams. How comforting is that as you prepare for this week’s slate? No matter how intuitive and quick you are in analyzing these teams and matchups, your fast thinking mind which has developed an almost automatic overview of this slate is gonna make errors. It’s gonna get things wrong because it has also developed biases that help make these shortcuts fast and efficient. 

An exercise I am going to conduct here is pretty new, but I think it can be a great addition to our process this late in the season and can significantly help us to make decisions, saving us all some time at the end of the week. I am going to go through the slate as quickly as possible and generate some initial thoughts. I will write them down in this space and then hunt through those thoughts for some biases that should point me in the direction of a few +EV plays. I will underline the biases which will be a mixture of primacy bias, novelty bias, and recency bias. At the end of the article, I will analyze how recognizing these biases can help us to make better decisions. 

WEEK 16 OVERVIEW

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Week 16

SOLO SHIP – JM & SQUIRREL PATROL

BLOCK PARTY – JM & PETER OVERZET

SEARCHING FOR CEILING – HILOW & RICH HRIBAR

DFS LABS DK – PAPY & CHEESEMAN

DFS LABS FD – MIKE JOHNSON & MAXIMUS

DFS LABS DK – Hilow & Cheeseman