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Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS
*Tabs are updated throughout the Weekend
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JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”
:: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
This will allow Angles to be delivered to your phone as soon as it’s live
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).
Tyler Huntley
James Robinson
Michael Carter
DeVante Parker
Davante Adams
Allen Lazard
Evan Engram
Chase Edmonds
Steelers
Find last week’s Bottom-Up Breakdown and join The Bottom-Up Build DraftKings Contest here!!
Hey. Did you notice?
Have you spotted it?
This week is weird(!).
I mean…I decided to delay the Player Grid a few hours to allow a bit more time for news to shake out, and AFTER the point when the Player Grid would typically be posted, we lost two whole games from the Main Slate.
Again: weird week.
With that in mind, I wanted to share two thoughts.
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Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Bruh, this slate is straight trippin’. There were over a hundred new additions to the league’s COVID list this week alone, there were three games moved to either Monday or Tuesday (one from Saturday and two from Sunday’s main slate), and we’re late in the season where teams are already dealing with significant injuries. Buckle up, because everything could change between now and Sunday afternoon. I’ve spoken to the idea of “information overload” a couple of times already this season, but this week is taking it to a whole new level. What happens when there are so many moving pieces on a slate? The field generally struggles to identify the top plays on the slate and general DFS theory errors are more prevalent. The difference between this slate and the previous two where we had a bunch of moving pieces is that we are expected to see a few spots of immense chalk this week. We’ll talk more about that below.
Restrictive chalk. It makes sense from the perspective of crowd psychology why the highest-priced quarterbacks would come in as the two expected to garner the most ownership on a slate like this. I paired these two together to highlight a couple of things:
(1) This slate is filled with uncertainty and the field is likely to resort to comfort when starting their builds this week, and there is no better feeling than taking the quarterbacks from the two teams with the highest Vegas implied team totals.
(2) Almost a third of the field is expected to pay up for one of these two quarterbacks, providing one of the bigger roster construction funnels of the slate due to their pay-up nature.
For more of my thoughts on these two quarterbacks relative to their expected ownership, check out the Edge write-ups for each respective game.
Neither restrictive now expansive chalk. Robinson is expected to be the single highest-owned player of any slate this season this week, checking in with between 45-50% ownership, depending on where you look. While he is clearly the best on-paper play from a salary-to-range-of-outcomes perspective, any player expected to be on almost half of the rosters on a main slate should give us a lot to think about. I will reiterate something though, Robinson is very clearly the top on-paper point-per-dollar play on the slate.
Expansive chalk. 35-40% ownership on a wide receiver holding a likeliest range of outcomes of seven to nine targets. More on this below.
Expansive chalk. Man, I really, really liked Gabe Davis before I saw his expected ownership, as early in the week I was thinking that he might be the forgotten piece from this Bills offense. But 25%+ expected ownership is a tough pill to swallow for a likeliest range of outcomes of five to seven targets. Thinking through what rostering Davis does to a roster, the combined production of Davis, and whomever he allows you to pay up for has to significantly outperform two mid-range players at a high frequency, considering the expected ownership. The most obvious combination on this slate is Josh Allen (or Kyler Murray) + Gabriel Davis. This presents an immense roster construction funnel, and I would contend the range of outcomes of a mid-range quarterback and a mid-range wide receiver is higher than an Allen + Davis pairing this week.
Restrictive chalk. Hands down, without a doubt the highest raw ceiling on the slate.
Restrictive chalk. It only took the field (and the DraftKings pricing algorithm) a year and a half to catch up to Diontae. The floor is absolutely locked-in, but there are better spots to spend his inflated salary, in my opinion.
Neither restrictive now expansive chalk. Kirk and AJ Green are the two players most likely to see a bump in production in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins on a standard week. The problem is that this is not a standard week for the Cardinals, who are highly likely to be able to control this game with their defense and their backfield tandem. I will say that both Kirk and Green’s range of outcomes takes on another slight bump should Zach Ertz, who was added to the injury report on Friday with a hamstring injury, miss this game.
Neither restrictive now expansive chalk. 18-20% ownership on a tight end with a likeliest range of outcomes of six to eight targets. More on this below.
Neither restrictive now expansive chalk. Very solid on-paper play, but are there better plays on this slate? More on this below.
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Welcome to The Oracle! :: The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS!
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
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A weekly staple of The Oracle :: In no more than two or three sentences, tell us what makes this slate particularly unique.
This slate is seemingly getting more unique by the day.
Let’s start here:
“Here’s what we know FOR CERTAIN about this week’s slate…”
“Nothing.”
More than maybe any other week in recent memory, this week’s slate is entirely in flux. Covid and coaching changes (and potentially a few covid-related coaching changes) are the story of the week, which has made this a week in which nimble minds will almost certainly win the day.
Here’s how I’ll be approaching things this week, with regards to the hefty dose of uncertainty this slate is providing:
I’ve spent very little time messing around with rosters this week so far (Friday afternoon). I’ve messed around with player pricing, and with thoughts on different games, but I don’t want to get anywhere close to anything that might feel like a “final decision” just yet. One of the toughest things for a DFS player to do is to wait until Sunday morning to make all of the most important decisions. Because of the time considerations // schedule constraints of a “wait until Sunday morning to make my decisions” setup, DFS players tend to avoid this. Instead — in an effort to remain fluid — they make “soft decisions” that they believe they will be willing to change later…but when it comes time to change these decisions, fear kicks in that they’ll end up “moving off the winning play,” which can either prevent them from making changes, or can put them into the wrong state of mind when it comes to crunch time. I say some of this, of course, from experience — and from experience, I know I’ll want to avoid this in Week 15, when so much of the news we are waiting on might not fully shake out until Sunday morning. I may not even save a single practice roster this week until Sunday morning, as I don’t want to feel like I have a basic set of decisions “already made.” The slate itself is fluid, so fluidity as a player will be key.
There isn’t a single that really jumps out as a great game to target for DFS purposes! Normally there is at least one really clear “good game,” but I’m just not seeing it this week. There are a few that look interesting as potential back-and-forth affairs (SEA/LAR, TEN/PIT, GB/BAL) and then some high-total games that could be very one-sided but might still result in fantasy goodness (Cowboys, Cards, Bills, Eagles, Dolphins, 49ers), but no one clear spot.
To me, that says the best tournament approach is to embrace the uncertainty. There is a LOT of uncertainty this week – both in game environments and within teams around player roles with how many guys are on the Covid list this week – but chalk will still form, as it always does. When chalk is robust, we can play it as long as we play it smartly, but when chalk is fragile, that’s when I usually try to look elsewhere and hope the chalk misses.
Oh, and be ready for everything to change on Sunday morning!
This is a be-on-your-toes news-reaction week. Those of you that have experience playing NBA slates will have an advantage. It’s extremely uncommon for an NFL slate to have this much uncertainty in terms of player availability. In the NBA, however, this type of stress DFS players have to endure is somewhat commonplace. There are multiple levels of efficiency when reacting to late news. The first is a matter of receiving the news and managing your if/then statements in the optimizer or manual swaps by hand. This part isn’t tough to master but the 2nd part often gets overlooked. Are you still able to step back and take a holistic approach to this slate? Are you able to see the big picture and develop an angle of strategy as you navigate this mess? Or are you simply plugging holes in the Titanic, in hopes of simply having lineups with healthy players?
If you’re like my wife and like to be in control of things (I say that with all the love in the world, that’s just who my wife is), this is not the slate for you.
On top of the 100+ new COVID cases this week, there is now talk of moving three games to either Monday or Tuesday this week (Raiders at Browns – Saturday slate, Seahawks at Rams – Sunday slate, and Washington at Eagles – Sunday Slate). Now add late season injuries, injury management (which influences expected volume), and even coach firings and this slate takes “information overload” to a whole new level.
And all of that doesn’t even factor in the multitude of large-spread spots and low game totals. Giddy up, baby!
Embrace the variance smartly (as in, don’t reach for low ceiling plays)!
We’ve had pending news on a few high profile players in past weeks which trickle into Sunday mornings, but this week especially it’s going to be critical to keep up with news on Sunday morning. I’m anticipating at least a few players on the COVID list as of this writing (Friday afternoon) may test back in and play Sunday. Also expecting the opposite to happen where we get new additions. This week is the most unique week yet of late Saturday and early Sunday morning news. For you west coasters out there, make sure to set your alarm clocks!
Obviously the COVID situations are a big deal and with multiple games now being moved off the main slate there are fewer games to evaluate and things will condense. This should alter how we look to attack this slate as a smaller slate means less outcomes to consider.
Another unique issue for this slate to me is the fragility of what we “know” about these team’s non-fantasy attributes, by that I mean the defenses and offensive lines. Many teams that we have specific views of may perform very differently than expected due to losses in their personnel in those areas. Everyone will be on top of the offensive skill players who are missing games and the different usage and projections that are caused by those, but most will overlook these other areas of the game that will have a huge impact on how things actually play out.
The main thing making this slate unique is the amount of players getting put on the Covid list, alongside the natural attrition from injuries making this a week we’re going to need to watch player news all the way up until kickoff in most games. Also, there are a lot of low game totals again this week and six of the 11 spreads are over a TD. There isn’t a single game on the slate that commands a game stack. The closest one is probably the Packers at Ravens game.
It must be 2021…
While there are 22 teams on the Main Slate this week, there are only eight teams that boast a Vegas-implied team total higher than 22.5 ::
Which type of tourney play will be taking up most of your focus this week..and in that type of tourney play, are there any strategies or thoughts around these teams that you find particularly interesting this week?
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Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
*COVID, COVID, COVID* we’ll try to get updates in here before Sunday if necessary
Welcome to Week 15. The week where the NFL says, “we don’t care about COVID-19” and plays games anyway, because . . . revenue. I’m surprised these games seem like they will kick off at the moment on Saturday and Sunday, but this late in the season I guess it’s a limp to the finish, and hopefully all of those who are testing positive for COVID-19 won’t have serious cases and will be back on the field soon. If the games do move forward, we’ll have plenty of backup, third-string, and practice squad players to pick on, so this is a week where Sunday morning will be critical in setting rosters. Don’t overreact but do react to whatever news trickles in on Sunday.
At first glance, we have a similar setup to last week when we have a handful of large spreads and many teams projecting to score under 20 points. With this information, we have to assess where we feel point totals will land as it’s likely there will be some close games between two teams that are set for a blowout, and identifying the right game environments will continue to be a staple of DFS success. As we get later into the season, the obvious spots become more obvious, so we should be thinking about attacking those spots differently than the field, to set ourselves up for first-place finishes.
Build lineups like nobody is watching this week.
It’s Week 15 and we’re talking up a game with a 43.5 game total. You have to love this stuff. We often talk about how to play “what if” games in order to build lineups that can compete for first place. This game presents a few interesting scenarios in that category. First, we know the Titans want to run the ball and we know the Steelers have been terrible at stopping the run lately. Their last showing was in primetime when Dalvin Cook ran all over them, so expect heavier ownership than there should be on the Titans running backs in this game. From my standpoint, their backfield is a stay away as all three of D’Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, and Jeremy McNichols should see work. But with the Titans running game as the position likeliest to carry high ownership in this game, we have identified our leverage point.
So, how can we build for first-place rosters in a game with only a 43-point total? Well, to build for first place we have to consider how to set up our rosters to not only gain points but also take down others in the same move. With some ownership on the cheap running backs expected (mainly Foreman), Julio Jones becomes our first primary play. His role is locked in as the number one WR for TEN, he’s one more week removed from his lingering hamstring injury, and the best yet is how excited many were last week to roster him at under $6K until he posted only 4/33/0 on six targets. However, what many may overlook is the fact that the Titans only threw the ball out of necessity in the second half of their dominant win last week against Jacksonville, and Julio found himself on the sidelines for much of the fourth quarter as he was not needed. Fast forward to this week’s matchup, and it would not surprise me to see Julio pick up around eight to ten targets. I’ll remind you this is against a Pittsburgh defense that was gashed by Cook on the ground, but also by Justin Jefferson in the air last week, and they’ve given up 36+ points in three of their last four games.
On the Pittsburgh side, they’ve seemed to really put up points in negative game scripts lately but their DFS-goodness is inflated by their short-area throws. Receptions pile up points for their pass catchers, and they are going up against a Tennessee defense facing the fourth-highest pass rate this season. With the condensity Pittsburgh shows on offense, mostly flowing through a near 100% snap rate Najee Harris, plus Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth, if they could get to 24+ points in the three to four score range, it could pay nice dividends. If we attack similarly to the Titans, his price is at a premium, but I think we can say the most ownership here will be on Diontae Johnson, considering his recent performances. He’s our lever on the Steelers. I think it’s lazy to say, okay, then we just take Claypool, but if we combine Najee and Claypool, we get rosters that take down any Diontae rosters, while also catapulting their rosters up the leaderboards on Sunday. I don’t have a problem rostering Ben along with these guys of course but may just do a three-man game stack myself.
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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play
Welcome To The Suck!
Unless you’ve been under a rock all week, you’ve been made aware that this slate is FUBAR. This could seem like a negative to some but I refuse to see it that way. Chalk is forming in some fragile places, ready to be exploited. I don’t think I’m running any full fades of the chalk but I am semi-fading almost all of it.
The loss of one late game diminishes our late swap template game a little bit. I will still build 2-3 clones with low-owned running backs and/or secondary stacks from the early games.
Embrace the uncertainty. Think on your feet. Be organized. Do not forget to take a deep breath and a step back before locking in your strategy for this slate. It’s easy to focus on getting all of the news incorporated into your process and then neglect to think strategically. Handle both of these elements together and you’ll have a distinct advantage on the field.
Be bold and CRUSH!
LFG!
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Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry
Week 15 and we’re closing in on the end of the regular season. I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP five times now and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! We’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there….why not?
Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)
First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers.
Before I dig into the positions, I just want to note that this week is WILD with uncertainty. There are soooo many players being put on the Covid list and it’s quite likely that even though I’m writing this on Friday, the landscape of the slate could change significantly by Sunday morning. Be ready to adjust!
I’m always happy when my highest projected quarterbacks on Superdraft are actually good overall plays and not some dude like Jake Fromm. Phew. This week my top QBs are actual capable NFL quarterbacks! Tua Tagovailoa leads the way against the miserable Jets, with Jalen Hurts at a 1.25x multiplier coming in second. Aaron Rodgers at 1.25x feels too low for him, as does Matthew Stafford at 1.2x. Of the higher-multiplier quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater and Jimmy Garoppolo, at 1.55x and 1.5x respectively, have solid team totals in decent matchups.
Oh man, this is where we get into the land of uncertainty. Najee Harris is my highest projected back, but at a 1.1x multiplier, I don’t love the ceiling here in a tough matchup with a low total. James Conner is my favorite RB play (assuming that Chase Edmunds isn’t activated), with Elijah Mitchell a close second assuming that he plays (and if he doesn’t I’ll happily play Jeff Wilson or whoever the 49ers lead back is). We have uncertain RB situations with the Titans and the Lions, with timeshares that we could get some clarity on before Sunday (note that Craig Reynolds played a lot for Detroit last week, though he isn’t being projected for much in most places). Overall, the big question for me at running back is: do I want to play it safe with lower-multiplier backs whose roles I can feel highly confident in, or target more upside with backs in uncertain situations but higher multipliers? On a week with mostly low total games, I think I’m leaning more towards the former. Unless something really clear emerges, I think I want to primarily target the guys with strong roles where I know they’re going to touch the ball a lot (Conner, Mitchell, Darrell Henderson or Sony Michel, Mixon, Robinson primarily).
As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:
We know the deal at tight end by now. I’ll play George Kittle and Mark Andrews at 1x multipliers because no other tight ends really have 30+ raw point ceilings. Dallas Goedert is my overall favorite tight end play on the slate because his raw ceiling isn’t all that much lower than Kittle and Andrews and he has a nice 1.3x multiplier. Other than that, I hate this position and will use it only in game stacks.
One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Jake Fromm look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:
Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
The Betting Discord has been on absolute fire the last few weeks, so much so that members of the discord have put together a google sheet to track the groups success. Unsurprisingly, the results show the quality of information and communication being shared is on another level. Best of all, everyone has their niche! Anyone who wants to contribute to the OWS Discord Betting Tracker is welcome to DM their email on Discord for an editor link- everyone else is welcome to use this as a resource of fun bets to tail in the discord with the community!
Follow me on Twitter for more. DMs open for any questions on how to get started or general Prop Betting Strategy!
The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active over the last few weeks. There are bettors in there dailey talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and College sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 15! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!
Cam Newton: Over 30.5 Rushing Yards
Result: Win (47 Rushing Yards)
Cam Newton had 10 rushes for 47 yards and a touchdown despite splitting time at quarterback with P.J. Walker (12 attempts, two rushes). Luckily, Newton did most of his rushing damage early, including a 12 yard touchdown run on the Carolina Panthers opening series. It is hard to trust Newton’s usage going forward with the potential to be cycled in and out of the lineup.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Under 249.5 Passing Yards
Result: Loss (296 Passing Yards)
Jimmy Garoppolo was cruising to this under until a 4th quarter comeback orchestrated by the Cincinnati Bengals took the game to overtime, scoring 14 unanswered points to end regulation. In his sole overtime possession, Garoppolo went 6/6 for 76 yards to finish with 296 passing yards and the win. Deebo Samuel was once again used sparingly in the passing game, operating as the team’s RB2, while Kittle continued to explode for 151 yards on 13 receptions (on 15 targets).
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
Week 9: +11.75 Units
Week 10: +5.8 Units
Week 11: -0.13 Units
Week 12: +6.67 Units
Week 13: +2.18 Units
Week 14: -0.1 Units
2021: +39.31 Units
Book: DraftKings -115
“SF season avg: (29.1 rush atts // 30.7 pass atts).”
“ATL allows the 9th most DK pts/g to RBs (25.9).”
“The 49ers are likely to control the game and impose their run-heavy, slow-paced approach.”
“The 49ers have PFF’s #1 graded run-blocking offensive line facing off against a Falcons defense that is ranked 31st in rush defense DVOA and 27th in yards per carry allowed.”
“This Falcons team is also one of the worst tackling teams in the league, ranking 24th in PFF grades as a tackling unit.”
“The game plan for the 49ers should be very straightforward here as they will play their normal style of ball – methodical with a ground-based approach while using creative play calling and schemes to attack the very “vanilla” Falcons defense in a variety of ways.”
“All of that considered, Jeff Wilson sets up as a premier GPP play to me this week. His situation is actually much better this week as far as game script and scoring opportunities set up.”
“If the 49ers control this game, Wilson could easily see 20 touches, and within the context of a game next Thursday, it would make sense if they don’t expose Deebo to a lot of pounding in the second half.”
“With Eli Mitchell out, Jeff Wilson should be the yardage-and-touchdown bet; but again, Deebo should steal some of the looks, and Hasty should soak up the pass game work.”
Jeff Wilson will once again suit up as San Francisco lead back with starter Elijah Mitchell unable to make it back for Week 15 with both head and leg injuries. The results so far have been subpar, but Wilson has handled the majority of RB carries during the two games he has started, rushing the ball 19 times in his first start and 13 times during his second. In the first game, Wilson was the workhorse in the first half before the 49ers allowed Trey Sermon an opportunity to salt the Jacksonville Jaguars away in Week 11. Last week, he handled all 13 running back rush attempts for 56 scoreless yards. This week, we can once again expect Wilson to carry the load versus a very weak Atlanta rushing defense giving up the 27th highest yards per carry as a nine-point home favorite. While play volume is somewhat of a concern here, there is a strong chance that Wilson is the one moving the chains. Lastly, the 49ers play Thursday night in Week 16, increasing the likelihood they avoid exposing Deebo Samuel to unnecessary rushing work deep into the contest.
Book: BetRivers (-114)
“Hubbard’s rush att as starter: 13 // 24 // 16 // 12 // 24 // 10.”
“Hubbard’s yds as starter: 71 // 134 // 65 // 56 // 91 // 33.”
“The ground game is now a veritable mess, with Chuba Hubbard having been out-snapped by Ameer Abdullah each of the past two games (the first of which Christian McCaffrey got injured and the second of which the backfield was Chuba and Abdullah’s the entirety of the game).”
“The matchup on the ground yields a scary-low 3.90 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Buffalo defense that clamps down on “power runs up the gut,” but is susceptible to rushes off the edge (of which the Panthers don’t utilize heavily).”
“The Panthers backfield is a complete stay-away in a difficult matchup on the ground.”
Chuba Hubbard has 132 rushing attempts on the year for 460 yards and four touchdowns. Averaging 3.5 yards per carry as a 13 point road dog versus a Buffalo Bills team that suddenly is in need of wins is not a great place to find yourself as a running back. Coupled with an uncertain role, versus a top-graded defense, and Cam Newton as your quarterback (at least to start) and you may find it tough sledding as a projected early-down grinder. The Bills rush defense has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde this year, especially in the second half, but most of that can be connected to the strength of their opponent. The Buffalo Bills have surrendered over 121 rush yards and over five yards per carry in four of their last eight games. In these games, Buffalo faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans. In their other four games during this stretch, this defense has held opposing rushing attacks to under 3.2 yards per carry and no more than 70 rushing yards in any contest. In these games, the Bills faced the likes of the Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Saints. I think we can group the Panthers quite confidently in the latter grouping, forecasting the likely fate for this RB backfield in Week 15.
Book: BetMGM (-115)
“Robinson’s rush att in full games: 5 // 11 // 15 // 18 // 18 // 17 // 12 // 12 // 17 // 8 // 6.”
“The Jaguars seem to favor playing slow (20th in situational neutral pace) but speed way up in the second half (3rd in pace) because they’re always chasing points.”
“The Texans play slow (21st in situational neutral pace) but speed up in the second half (4th in pace) because they’re constantly losing.”
“Bad offenses are bad offenses for a reason, and playing a bad defense doesn’t make them good.”
This one is a bit thin, but as we all know, this has been a bit of a crazy week. I just can’t lay off betting an under that hasn’t been topped all season. I know the positives, no Carlos Hyde or Urban Meyer, but I think they are getting a little too inflated. While it is undeniable that James Robinson was in the head Meyer doghouse, the head coach seemed to legitimately have little knowledge of rotations or snap rates of his players. I’m not convinced we will get much pace up action in the second half this week, something that has become commonplace as both teams routinely find themselves needing to save face down by multiple scores, as neither team is likely to pull too far ahead and push the pace. As a result, I expect play volume to be somewhat limited and more in line with both teams’ first-half situation neutral pace of play. One of my favorite quotes from The Edge this year is “Bad offenses are bad offenses for a reason, and playing a bad defense doesn’t make them good”, and I expect both teams to struggle to maintain drives while being perfectly happy to shorten the game as much as possible in what may be the worse offensive game of the year for fantasy fans.
One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.
