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OWS Fam!!!

Welcome to Week 15.

Avoiding Absolutes

There’s a movie called Love & Basketball, released in 2000 which chronicles two young friends growing up, who both love basketball and eventually love each other because of the game. I don’t know how many of you have seen or heard of this movie, but this was one of my favorite movies from about the years 2000-2004 (I was in my early teens, and convinced I would play pro basketball; can you blame me?). 

In the movie, there’s a scene where the father of the main character (then a teenage boy) asks him how his homework is going. The boy responds, “I can’t do this sh*t!” The father gets up and yells, “HEY, what did I tell you about using that word!” Surely, the expectation is that he will condemn his son for saying the obviously out-of-bounds four-letter word. But instead, the son responds, “the word can’t should not be in a man’s vocabulary.”

For whatever reason, I have always remembered this line. I am 90% sure the reason is because I’ve learned over time that saying terms like can’t, won’t, or saying something will never happen, is just plain false. It also stymies our ability to think, be creative, and limits our mental ranges of outcomes. Try not to be the person who guarantees these negative things with certainty. 

In the DFS world, we don’t know what to expect on a given slate with much more than basic certainty. We are always given data to draw from, and we have certain parameters on our expectations, but in analyzing most slates we don’t know what will happen. What we can do, though, is be reasonable with outcomes. We can draw our arbitrary lines around things like team expectations, ranges of player roles and usage, high and low extremes in game environments, and then be creative in building from there.

This is how to attack slate prep. It’s not that anything is possible, but it is that outcomes will be chaotic, and that within our arbitrary parameters we can be creative as hell!

Week 15

Boy, this is a fun one, with 12 games on tap, the beginning of playoff implications, and Best Ball playoffs getting underway (where biases will be everywhere in the DFS content space because of it). 

We are given some teams who are positioned with high certainty this week to put up a lot of points. We aren’t given many games positioned with much certainty to evolve into a shootout, other than the obvious Bills // Lions matchup. On slates like this, it’s important to note you should start with the obvious game. Prices aside, it will be critical to get this one right. So, let’s start there, but then we’ll quickly run through some notes and angles as we navigate this one.

Bills (26) // Lions (28.5): It would be interesting to think through this game as if last week’s Bills/Rams matchup didn’t happen. But it did, and despite being the highest-priced QB on the slate, Josh Allen put up the highest score of any QB of all time (I haven’t checked this but have seen it in multiple places). So, there’s that. Now Allen goes to another indoor environment, against another defense with many players on injured reserve. The Lions’ defense brings more pressure on the QB than the Rams, and more importantly, they make tackles (third-lowest missed tackles in the NFL, while the Rams have the third most). The Lions’ offense identifies with running the ball, and if given the option in this game, would likely want to lean on their backs to keep the clock moving and the league’s MVP (Allen) off the field. The problem is every team wants to do this to Buffalo. This is the game of the week, but realize it has a path to underwhelming if the Lions rushing game gets going. It was a long time ago, but the Ravens provided a blueprint in Week 4’s 35-10 win over Buffalo.

If you aren’t stacking the Bills // Lions game, here are some other teams I’d consider stacking on this slate (QB plus at least two others), in games that likely won’t become shootouts:

• The Ravens (29.5) and their near-30 implied total visiting the Giants :: Baltimore is coming off its bye, and the Giants aren’t expected to hang around in this game; so despite their preferred attack here on the ground, we could see an outcome similar to Lions over Jaguars where an overstack is viable.
• Can anyone stop the Bengals? Or more specifically, Burrow and Chase? The Titans don’t seem like an obvious choice here but Tennessee head coach Brian Callahan was on Zac Taylor’s staff for years, so if anyone knows the pressure points for Joe and Ja’Marr, it’s probably Callahan. You also have to think defenses will give Chase a bit more attention after what he has shown lately. Tee Higgins or Chase Brown week if so?
• What about Arizona (26) after failing last week against Seattle? James Conner will likely pick up steam, but will Kyler, Marvin, or McBride? Is this the week Trey gets into the end zone? New England’s motivation here is key. They aren’t expected to keep up, and a 20-point implied total is about where they’ve been the last few weeks.
• The Commanders (25.5) dropped 42 points on Tennessee before their bye, and will be without Austin Ekeler (IR) and WR2 Noah Brown (out for the season). This condenses volume on Daniels, Robinson, and McLaurin, but it also creates opportunity for cheap value to step forward (Dyami, LMC, McNichols). Against the Saints, indoors, Washington feels like a two-outcome team: Either they dominate like the Titans game or scrape and claw and get pulled into an ugly one by a potentially Derek Carr-less group.

The ‘Other’ Guys

Miami (21.75) // Houston (24.75): The Dolphins got their groove back offensively last week, and executed through their best players. Houston had a bye to get their heads right after what happened in Jacksonville, and the defense lost Al-Shaair but is likely to get Christian Harris back. The Texans have been underwhelming offensively as a unit, but we should continue to see Joe Mixon and Nico Collins lead the charge. I haven’t looked at prices yet but the talent on the field in this game alone raises its ceiling. It doesn’t have the implied total of the Bills and Lions matchup, but if any game can challenge it, it’s this one.

Tampa Bay (21.25) // Chargers (24.5): Baker hasn’t looked his best lately, but neither have the Chargers. We could miss both Bucky Irving (Tampa’s best running back) and Ladd McConkey (LA’s best receiver), which dampens expectations. Both quarterbacks are also banged up. The signs are pointing with down arrows everywhere. You know what that means: Don’t ask yourself if this game could be a shootout, but rather, how?

Chiefs (24) // Browns (20): Strictly listing this game here because of the Jameis factor. Conventional wisdom will say the Chiefs’ defense should have fun here, but Kansas City has also shown their unique ability to keep every game close. I’m translating this to if Jameis can pull KC into a shootout, and not the other way around, this could be an under-owned game worth stacking.

Beyond these spots, there is so, so much more to dive into on the site this week. Will the Jets do some stat-padding against the Jaguars for Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, now that they are officially eliminated from the playoffs? The Panthers are favored(!) in a home game against the Cowboys. Can they put up more than 27 points? And what would that look like? Denver, now suddenly looking solid for the playoffs, gets a soft matchup with Indianapolis, but one that the Colts need to win in order to get within a game of Houston (if Houston loses to Miami). Both teams motivated, two rookie QBs (I consider Richardson a rook), and one defense that is better (Denver) than the other. Does that tilt the scales?

Remember, this week, it’s not “can’t” or “won’t” happen! It’s “how can it happen, and what does that look like?” Don’t limit your own creativity.

Build like NOBODY’s watching. And build. To. Win.

See ya at the top on Sunday!

~Larejo

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

Important Early Outcomes To Watch:

Chuba Hubbard – The Panthers back is projecting for just shy of 50% ownership in a solid on-paper spot against Dallas. Hubbard does have 3 games this season of over 25 DK points but has scored 16 or less fantasy points in 5 of his last 8 games. At $6,500, he’s a player to track. 

Rico Dowdle – The other side of the ball in the Panthers vs Cowboys matchup also is garnering a lot of attention. Rico Dowdle is coming off back-to-back games of over 120 total yards and three straight games with 20 or more opportunities. The Panthers have allowed an opposing RB to rush for over 100 yards in 3 of the past 4 games and the field has taken notice, as Dowdle is projecting as one of the five highest-owned players on the slate.

Derrick Henry – While Henry’s ownership is projecting for a modest mid-teens percentage, the Ravens are 16-point favorites and facing a Giants team that has struggled against the run all year. In the multiple games this season where BAL has won by double digits, Henry has accounted for at least 28 fantasy points in each one. He’s one of the few players on the slate that can put up 35+.  

Slate Breakers – Such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 58.4 DK point performance in week 10.

Afternoon outlook:

There are 5 games in the afternoon window on the week 15 main slate, with one game that stands out above the rest in terms of Vegas implied game total. Despite the BUF/DET game carrying an 8-point higher total than any other game, it isn’t expecting to carry much ownership at all, with only Amon-Ra St. Brown attracting more than 8% ownership. From a game-theory perspective, if you find yourself in catch-up mode after the early games, pivoting off higher-owned afternoon plays such as Ladd McConkey, Trey McBride, James Conner, Stone Smart, and Rachaad White to much lower-owned players on the Bills or Lions is the correct strategy. Let’s explore those decisions, as well as a few other options consider more below.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 15 Overview

We finally have a five-game slate for the Afternoon session which makes it feel closer to a main slate and requires us to be less “perfect” than the three-game slates we have seen lately. The biggest thing about this slate is the fact that BUF/DET stands out SO MUCH from the other games here. IND/DEN is a spot where IND could get shut down completely and DEN spreads things out a lot. NE/ARI is a tough spot to trust with the Patriots offense not having any explosive players and Arizona happy to play conservatively. PIT/PHI profiles as a physical slugfest, while Chargers games have been low scoring for much of the season and the Bucs offense is dealing with injuries. It wouldn’t be shocking for BUF/DET to score over 60 points and the other four games to all stay south of 40. Obviously, that’s not likely to happen, but it won’t be surprising if it does. 

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

This slate is a solid 12-gamer as byes are over but there are two Monday Night Football games. With a bigger slate comes more opportunities for outlier production to develop, meaning we are likely to require a higher score than the median in 2024 to ship GPPs this week. Game totals are also up from the median in 2024, which adds to the chances we see higher scores shipping tournaments (okay, not higher than last week, but higher than the median this season). The slate itself is unique in that it appears to be giving us plenty of options from which to choose our primary stacks but there is a distinct lack of elite plays on paper. And yet, the field is expressing high degrees of certainty in various spots this week, as evidenced by the extreme ownership we are expecting on numerous players. This presents an interesting dynamic to the slate where it won’t take a lot to generate meaningful leverage away from the chalk and chalk build.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

CHUBA HUBBARD

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jonathan Brooks is out for the season, Miles Sanders is on injured reserve, and Raheem Blackshear failed to log a full practice this week while dealing with a chest injury. Converted wide receiver Velus Jones is the next man up on the active roster. Chuba Hubbard is coming off a 31-opportunity game and gets a Cowboys defense allowing 2.46 yards before contact per attempt (fourth most), the third most rush yards per game (141.9), and the fourth most fantasy points per game (23.2) to opposing backfields this season. He is a solid on-paper play this week.

RACHAAD WHITE

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Bucky Irving currently ranks as the overall RB18 while Rachaad White currently ranks as the overall RB21 in PPR formats. If you combine their fantasy production to date, you get 343.6 PPR points to date, which is 43.6 more points than Saquon Barkley, the overall RB1, has scored this year. Should Bucky Irving miss Week 15, White is expected to see his role in the offense grow enough to be considered a true RB1 against the Chargers. The matchup is far from ideal, but that level of production should not go overlooked from the Buccaneers this season, making White an absolute steal at a salary of just $5,800.

JAMES CONNER

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. James Conner has a season-high of 22.4 DK points while failing to return a 4x salary multiplier in any game this year. He is expected to be on almost 25% of the rosters in play this weekend. No thank you, Charlie Brown.

CHASE BROWN

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Chase Brown has seen 80% or more of the team’s offensive snaps in five consecutive games while averaging 24.4 opportunities per game, with a robust 6.8 of those per game coming via targets. His opponent in the Titans has allowed 20.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. He is a fine on-paper play this week.

STONE SMARTT

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Stone Smartt should serve as the primary pass-catching tight end for a Chargers team that ranks ninth in pass rate over expectation of the previous month of play, against a clear pass-funnel and inside-funnel Buccaneers defense. He is a tick over min-price on DraftKings. But what makes him gain viability this week is the general lack of top options that can put the slate out of reach, one of whom is a chalky tight end who has yet to score a receiving touchdown this season (Trey McBride).

RICO DOWDLE

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. From my write-up of the Dallas game: “Over the last three games, Dowdle has been given a true lead back/borderline workhorse role, during which time he has averaged 70% of the offensive snaps while seeing 20 or more running back opportunities in every game. That newfound workload is meaningful considering the Panthers have allowed the fifth most yards before contact per attempt (2.46), the most rush yards per game (170.1), and the most fantasy points per game (27.0) to opposing backfields this season.” Dowdle is a solid on-paper play this week.

JOE MIXON

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. From my write-up of the Houston game: “Running back Joe Mixon is one of a dying breed of true workhorses remaining in the league. He has seen 20 or more opportunities in every game since Week 7 while averaging a ridiculous 23.5 opportunities per game in the last eight games. He has also scored 24.9 DK points in six of 10 appearances this season, meaning he has hit a 3x salary multiplier his Week 14 salary at a ridiculous 60% frequency while going over 100 yards on the ground in seven on 10 games. That, my friends, is bonkers. The matchup on the ground is less than ideal against a Dolphins defense ceding 1.56 yards before contact per attempt, 4.3 yards per carry (12^th), and 21.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (21^st), but his elite workload and red zone role give him one of the highest raw ceilings at the position on the slate.” Mixon is a solid on-paper play this week.

BRIAN THOMAS JR.

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I’m not sure why the field feels compelled to play a pass-catcher who is delivered the football by a quarterback ranked 46th in fantasy points per game, one who has scored more than just 8.24 DK points in one of four starts this season. Jones now has 41 interceptions to 48 career touchdowns. The Jets also ranked first in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season at just 23.1. Have fun with this one.

TREY MCBRIDE

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Trey McBride currently stands as the overall TE2, all while failing to score a receiving touchdown this season (he has one rushing score and also fell on a fumble in the end zone). He has returned a 4x salary multiplier his Week 15 salary twice in 12 games but has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but two games. I don’t think the field realizes they are paying for floor with McBride.

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Jameis Winston
Derrick Henry
Rico Dowdle
Jerry Jeudy
Elijah Moore
Michael Woods
Jordan Akins
Jalen McMillan
Broncos

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

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Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
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*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

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Sunday Morning Update

What A Unique Week

What a unique week this is.

Yes, there are 12 games on this slate. Yes, there are some teams implied for nice totals. But this is also the type of week in which Kyler Murray (seven games this year of 17.2 or fewer DK points) is expected to be the highest-owned quarterback, followed by Justin Herbert (only two games all year of 20+ DK points). It’s a week on which C.J. Stroud (seven consecutive games without topping 18 DK points, with under 15 in six of those) is projecting to garner top ownership, while taking on a Dolphins defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. It’s a week on which Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and Drake Maye are projected to be among the seven highest-owned quarterbacks — and it’s a week on which I have only two quarterbacks on my own list after working through my research and running through the slate several times.

I also have only five running backs on my initial list — and two of those five running backs are Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, who are projecting to be the two highest-owned running backs on the slate. This is how you know it’s Week 15. “Chuba and Dowdle chalk week. What could go wrong!?”

As of this writeup, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are projected to garner top-three ownership at high price tags in a game that isn’t all that likely to see points pile up from their opponent. Calvin Ridley and Brian Thomas Jr. are also on track for top-five ownership, relying on Will Levis and Mac Jones to get them their production. There are currently nine wide receivers tracking for double-digit ownership, and Malik Nabers (relying on Tommy DeVito) is another.

And then, of course, we have tight end, where the most expensive option in Trey McBride and the least expensive (viable) option in Stone Smartt are on track to combine for nearly 50% of the field’s exposure to the position.

Are you confident in how this week will play out? Because you probably shouldn’t be. This week will probably see a lot of volatility among higher-owned pieces…

And with all that, I’m not necessarily saying these plays are “bad chalk” within the context of the week.

What I am saying, however, is that this looks like a slate that could require us to do something different than just “following the logic trail toward the same Best Plays everyone else is seeing.”

This also looks like a slate that justifies a different Player Grid structure — and that’s what we’re going to do.

This week, I have no plays that line up as Blue Chips or Light Blue Chips. But also, I have a small list of QBs I like and a small list of running backs that stand out to me on paper, which leaves me with a very small pool (as those QBs will come with double- and triple-stacks, leaving me with only a few spots left to account for on each roster — assuming that’s my starting point across the board). Rather than providing a bit of a skeleton Player Grid structure, then, I’m going to go position-by-position, listing A) The Guys I Like, B) Some Guys I Don’t Dislike, and C) Some Alternate Angles.

Guys I Like = guys who were in my initial pool, post-research

Guys I Don’t Dislike = high-owned pieces that I’m not necessarily excited to play myself, but that I also don’t have strong arguments against (in the context of what else the slate provides)

Alternate Angles = lower-owned guys who have high ceilings and could provide a unique path to first

In my Angles Pod this week, I defined players in terms of letter grades, essentially noting that there might be a handful of “B-” options on the slate, but that most of the popular pieces are more in the “C” to “C+” category. To be clear, that’s just the type of week this is. It’s not a week where we have “C+” chalk and “A-” pieces that everyone is overlooking. We have “C+” chalk and “C”/”C-” pieces that everyone is overlooking. But when the “correct chalk” is in that “C+” range, we have an opportunity to take equally strong (or…equally weak) plays that no one is on in order to bet on things playing out differently than everyone is expecting. This is a week to take some swings, in my opinion. We’ll see some volatile production among high-owned pieces, and it may be some lower-owned pieces that ultimately define the week.

Let’s dive in — starting with the quarterback position.

Quarterbacks

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Tua Tagovailoa || Jameis Winston || Josh Allen || Jared Goff

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback ::

• Josh Allen // Jared Goff – I expect this game to be a potential shootout and Allen’s ceiling goes without saying. Goff has clear paths to a big game if things get wild and should carry low ownership and pass catchers whose salaries are depressed.
• C.J. Stroud – Stroud’s salary is the lowest we’ve seen in a year as he goes into a game with clear stacking options and shootout potential
• Joe Burrow – The Titans are very hard to run on and the Bengals are really good at throwing the ball. Tennessee has faced four other top-10 DVOA offenses this season and has given up point totals of 42, 52, 34, and 30 in those games. Sometimes it doesn’t have to be complicated.
• Salary Savers: Jameis Winston, Cooper Rush, Aaron Rodgers

Running Back :: 

• Joe Mixon – Mixon has started and finished nine games this season. He has at least 17 Draftkings points in eight of those games, with six games of 24.9 or more. The Dolphins have the 24th ranked run defense and just gave up 400 yards of offense to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets.
• Jahmyr Gibbs – I expect Gibbs to be heavily utilized in a potentially high-scoring game environment at low ownership.
• James Conner – Should be utilized in a good matchup where the Cardinals can control things on the ground. Can add points through receptions as well.
• Rico Dowdle – Dominating touches in the Cowboys backfield and has a strong matchup.
• Chuba Hubbard – Back to a workhorse role with Jonathon Brooks out of the picture. Chuba should have 20+ touches in a plus matchup.
• Salary Savers: Rachaad White // Sean Tucker, Tank Bigsby, Tyjae Spears (if Pollard is out)
• Bonus:: Derrick Henry – Really it just comes down to how long Henry stays on the field and if he’s the one who does the early scoring for the Ravens in this one. A team with Super Bowl aspirations may rest him early if/when they get out in front and if the Giants

Wide Receiver :: 

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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Threading the Needle

Taking a slightly different approach this week because, frankly, there aren’t any low-owned secondary stacks that really light my fire. Sure, I could have cobbled together a couple of lukewarm combos like Andre Iosivas/Nick Westbrook-Ikhine or Parker Washington/Davante Adams and pitched the usual “cheap guy with leverage against chalky teammate + touchdown upside” narrative. But honestly? Everything feels too thin this week to justify a full writeup. And that’s saying something coming from a guy who isn’t afraid to sling it into tight windows.

That said, I do have Elijah Moore (Michael Woods) and Noah Gray making appearances in this article, but they’re more “lower-owned one-offs” than true correlation pieces since their 4x scores won’t necessarily elevate the overall game environment. This week is particularly fun because some of the cheaper pieces with ceiling potential are priced similarly to medium projection-driven plays that will carry ownership. Let’s dig in and see where we can find some overlooked upside without narrowing our path to first place.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

• Saquon Barkley ($8600) 8% pOWN – We loved him last week because of the matchup—and rightfully so. But honestly, is Saquon ever really fazed by matchup? Are the Steelers suiting up Jack Lambert and Mean Joe Greene this week? Probably not. Sure, he’s less likely to smash than last week, but football is random, and Saquon is awesome. 

• Jahmyr Gibbs ($7500) 3% pOWN – I like him a bit more in mid-sized fields due to his strong floor, even if David Montgomery’s presence caps his upside. In the hottest game of the week, though, at this ownership? I’ll roll with him in large fields too, especially when the rest of my roster leans chalky. Swap out your Chase Brown/Hunter Henry combo for Gibbs/Mark Andrews, and you’re getting similar upside while slicing your ownership by 25 percentage points.

• Alvin Kamara ($7700) 7% pOWN – The field was flocking to smash the button on AK in previous weeks, but now the loss of Derek Carr gives us low ownership — even though Jake Haener checks it down more often. A complete systemic failure of the Saints offense is certainly on the table, but so is Kamara racking up north of eight receptions and a touchdown as the last weapon standing.

Wide Receiver

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• The top of the slate has only one game expected to produce over 48 points. BUF/DET (54.5) towers above the rest of the slate, with no other game predicted to finish within a touchdown of its total.
• The middle tier is a slate of its own, holding a whopping 10 games. CIN/TEN (46.5), MIA/HOU (46.5), NE/AZ (46.5), TB/LAC (45.5), IND/DEN (44), WAS/NO (43.5), DAL/CAR (43), KC/CLE (43), PIT/PHL (43), and BAL/NYG (42.5), all have the potential to end up as the must-have game of the week.
• The bottom and top are similarly small, with the lone game that isn’t expected to produce points being NYJ/JAX (40.5). It’s hard to see a lot of total points from this game when the Jaguars have struggled all season.  

Pawn – TE Stone SmarTt ($2,600)       

Smartt stepped into the receiving TE role for the Chargers after Will Dissly exited last week’s game with an injury. He only played a moderate number (37%) of the snaps, but that number comes with the caveat that Dissly was healthy long enough to see the majority (40%) of the snaps at TE. With Dissly now sidelined, it’s reasonable to expect Smartt will step into a near full-time role. Last week, in only a third of the snaps, Smartt managed to post a 3/54 line on three targets. The Chargers offense likes to use their TEs, and no one would have confused Will Dissly for Rob Gronkowski at the start of the season, but he has still managed to put up above average numbers. There are strong plays at WR/RB this week, and it’s nice to be able to take a free square at TE who could get you 10 DK points without a TD. If Smartt finds his way into the end zone, he’ll automatically be a value at his price. It doesn’t hurt that the Bucs have been whacked by TEs (27^th in DVOA).

Knight – QB Aaron Rodgers ($5,400)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 15 Topics

1. The Big Dog

2. The Gem That Unlocks The Slate

3. Stack SZN

4. Value Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. The Big Dog

The Question ::

Just last week, we saw the Rams and Bills game go bananas in the afternoon with 86 total points as the relative strength of the defenses didn’t matter when a talented team with a great play caller faced an all-world QB in Josh Allen and the offenses started to interact and push each other. If that description sounds appealing to you, then this week’s game between the Bills and Lions (in a dome!) has basically all of the same ingredients and even more weapons at Allen’s disposal. This game opened with an over/under of 53 points and is already up to 54.5 as of Thursday morning. There are no other games on the slate whose totals are currently above 46.5, which is pretty wild on a 12-game slate (13 on Fanduel) for one game to be expected to score more than a touchdown above everything else.

Given that context, it feels like this game has potential to be an extremely important point on this slate and how you build your rosters will be telling a strong story on how you expect this game to play out – whether you are on it or not. So what are your expectations for this game?

The Answers ::

JM >>

I think there are some pretty key differences between this game and the Bills // Rams game last week. As the question noted: the Bills have more weapons this week…which might help them in real life, but it doesn’t really help us in DFS, where we’ve already gone all season without being able to rely on tourney-worthy scores from this offense. Now the Bills are playing a much better defense, with more weapons available for Allen to spread the ball amongst. On the other side, we have a Lions team that has been one of the best offenses in the NFL all season, while rarely producing DFS-useful scores, as this offense is full of high-priced pieces and tends to spread the ball around. Furthermore, the Rams (with a concentrated offense) move the ball through the air, while the Lions (with a non-concentrated offense) often control games on the ground. I honestly think it’s pretty sharp of the field to be moving away from heavy ownership in this game…

…but this opens the door for us to then move TOWARD this game. If this game were coming in with high expected ownership, we could argue that it was +EV to simply expect this game to play out “in the likeliest way” (which would leave no one producing tourney winners). But with the field playing things that way, it suddenly becomes +EV to say, “Yeah, but, can’t this game play to the upside?”

With that in mind, the idea of attacking this game gains attractiveness in my eyes. We can acknowledge that this is a different setup than the Bills had last week, while also recognizing that we would make money over time loading up on game stacks here specifically because the field is also recognizing this. If you load up on this game, “What’s likeliest to happen” is that you’re left a bit disappointed. But the fact that most people will be off this game also means that if you were able to load up on this game across a 100-times sample, you would be positioned to make money over that stretch.

Xandamere >>

I think that while anything could happen and it wouldn’t surprise me if this game really shot out (read: like 60-65 points or more – just hitting its Vegas total wouldn’t be “shooting out” since that’s the median of what’s expected). But…the Lions defense is much, much better than the Bills. They are, if memory serves (Mike can double check me), 1st or 2nd in pass defense DVOA. Now, that doesn’t mean an elite QB like Allen can’t take them apart…it just means it’s less likely than Allen taking apart the much-weaker Rams defense. 

Put another way: we really only needed the Rams to exceed expectations against a tough defense last week, because the Bills offense had a soft matchup. The likelihood of the Bills falling flat last week was much lower than it is this week, and we still have to also think about the other side of the game in which we need the Lions offense to succeed.

Another angle: the Rams have been much better at generating tourney-worthy DFS scores because they are a wildly concentrated passing offense in which the top 2 guys account for an absolutely massive target share. The Lions, on the other hand, are a much more spread out offense in which we’ve very rarely seen tourney-worthy scores emerge this season.

All of this comes together to paint a picture of more risk than reward in this game…except….

NOBODY WANTS TO PLAY IT. Current ownership projections have everyone in this game as extremely low owned. So, I get the concerns. They’re real. This game is not a certain shootout, and even if it does shoot out, it could do so in very fantasy-unfriendly ways. But I think the upside case of “the game scores 70+ points AND does so in fantasy-friendly ways” is stronger than any other game on the slate and with relatively modest ownership, I’m interested in going after it. 

My preferred way to attack it is via full game stacks. I doubt I’ll be playing any one-off pieces.

Hilow >>

While this game includes the two offenses leading the league in points per game (Lions: 32.1, Bills: 30.5), it also includes two defenses ranked in the top eight in points allowed per game (Lions: tied for second at 18.0, Bills: eighth at 20.6). What that means is that this game carries an immensely wide range of outcomes as far as how it could play out. Furthermore, out of all the skill position players from these two teams, no player has put up a 4x salary multiplier their Week 15 salary more than twice all season. That said, this game clearly has the pieces to develop into something we had to have this week (remember, wide range of outcomes), meaning we should look to ownership to influence our interest. Only Ja’Marr Chase and Khalil Shakir are projected to be on 10% or more of rosters in play this week. The goal here isn’t to answer the question of how the game is likeliest to play out, the goal is to leverage the field’s stance on the game through the wide range of outcomes. I’ll have definite interest in full game stacks while I won’t be looking here for one-off selection.

Mike >>

The hard part about this game is also the beauty of it. We have some expensive players (Allen, Cook, Gibbs, Montgomery, ARSB) who feel uncomfortable to pay up for and two teams who tend to spread things out a bit – which makes all of the cheaper options also feel uncomfortable. The result is that none of them project for great games and therefore all of them are likely to carry low ownership.

Allen is in a spot that is hard for me to get away from. I truly think he has a massive ceiling in this spot. Obviously he isn’t going to match last week, but if/when he posts another massive game it is going to feel very obvious in retrospect. The Bills skill players are all tough to pull the trigger on. They use three RBs, two TEs, and five WRs – and this is the first game in a while where they are at full strength which makes projecting usage for the receiving options even more difficult. My preferred options of the bunch are Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. If I think this game shoots out (which I do) and I think Josh Allen has a big game (which I do) and I know the Bills are likely to spread things out, then big plays are likely necessary for a Bills skill player to post a big game. Cooper and Coleman are most likely to fit that bill (no pun intended) and each is in the range where a 100 yard game probably gets them to 4x their salary and if they score a touchdown with it they are probably at 5x+. Obviously I like playing them with Allen, but at their salaries I’ll also consider them on other rosters where I am playing cheaper QBs. C.J. Stroud, for example, could post a 25-point game while Allen posts 35. If that happens then there’s a good chance one of Allen’s pass catchers drops a 20 to 25 point game for around $5k in salary and the 10-point sacrifice from Allen to Stroud is worth the $2,300 in salary savings. 

The Lions certainly can spread the ball around, but in a high leverage matchup against a really good opponent we could see more aggressiveness and higher play volume. I really like this spot especially since the “uncertainty” around it based on the strength of defenses and plethora of options makes it likely to be lower owned. I am leaning into this spot as a bet on how the offenses interact and push each other.

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2. The Gem That Unlocks The Slate

The Question ::

We touched on the highest probability game for a shootout in the first question. As we saw last week, however, even when one game takes center stage we can have other games pop off and deliver tournament winning performances. Every single one of the other games on the slate has an over/under above 40 and below 47, creating a very tight spread in terms of expectations. Which game or two has you most intrigued as the potential “gem that unlocks the slate”?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.

Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.

(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)

Drake Maye (NE) OVER 217.5 passing yards

We like Maye in this environment to go over this mark. He has done so in 3 of the last 5 and the 2 times he’s missed would have been expected. The next best is over 20.5 completions -128 CZ/DK, -128 FD. Maye finds himself in a positive matchup for completions and yards. You can consider splitting this .5U each, but official tracking will be o217.5 passing.

The bet is good to: -130

Isiah PAcheco (KC) OVER 13.5 rush attempts

Pacheco came back from injury and had 7 carries, then 14 last week. One assumes his role this week will be at least as strong as last week. He had 15 and 19 carries in the first 2 weeks of the season before getting hurt, so that’s what we should think a “full” role for him looks like – he may not be at “full” yet but he should be very close based on last week’s usage.

The bet is good to: -130

Caleb Williams (CHI) over 32.5 pass attempts

Vikings face the highest opposing passing play percentage at 64.8%, so if the Bears run just ~50 plays Caleb should be a favorite to go over here. QBs against the Vikings have beaten this line in all but 4 games, Caleb threw 47 times against them a few weeks ago.

The bet is good to: -130

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Brothers and sisters, this is the most important Willing to Lose you’ll read this season. We have a slate that is prime for exploitation, prime for zagging, and prime for leveraging the chalk. As you’re navigating The Scroll and other content this week, think about how deep into the season we are now. The way that Week 15 sets up is a great example of what overthinking looks like. When overthinking is prominent, I hope you’ll realize how popular contrarian/leveraged articles can be this week. I don’t know if what will follow here will end up being accurate in terms of predictions, but I can guarantee that if you get through The Scroll this week and align your thinking to the thinking of some of our wondrous contributors, you will conquer this slate. None of us know how this slate will turn out, but this is precisely the type of slate OWS should be able to take advantage of.

I won’t belabor this point but I do want to emphasize that Sunday night hindsight is going to look so obvious this week. The Oracle includes a section titled, “That was so obvious how did I not see it?” and there are going to be some hits in that section this week. I want to predict that our hindsight will be strong because we’re probably going to see things like:

• “Of course, the Ravens led all teams in scoring, they had the highest implied total on the slate!”
• “Of course, Josh Allen went nuts again, he’s playing in a dome in December, something he rarely gets to do!”
• “Of course, the Lions and Bills played the game of the week, it was primed to do so!”

I’m bringing up these examples because, at least based on early ownership, these obvious spots aren’t looking so obvious in projections (mostly due to salary constraints). Onward we go, let’s rip through some of these and instead of limiting to three strategies that could be incorporated into one lineup, I’ll have a few situations to land on that could be played together, separate, or something in between…

Brian Robinson Jr. + Alvin Kamara

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

If you had a holiday that you could live through on repeat (Groundhog Day style – the movie, not the actual day), which would it be? Thanksgiving is obviously out of the question. I mean, who could eat turkey and stuffing that many days in a row? Christmas is a good answer because merriment and cheer are less likely to get old, and Halloween is definitely up there. 4/20 is a more contrarian option, but I see its merits. It could be your casual NFL Sunday, but you have to relive the same slate of games. 

SIMS DISCUSSION

At OWS, we have been talking forever about the theory of playing out a slate 100 times. Now, SIMS is actively building programs that do this. The math behind the systems takes projections into account and randomizes the likelihood of a certain percentile outcome for each player, in different stacks, for an entire lineup. It honestly sounds like a huge time saver. You, the DFS player, then search through the lineups you have built and select a lineup based on a number of different factors including the likelihood of a first place finish, which is really all that matters. Hold that thought.

I have long since adopted the idea of “Playing Fearless” in DFS. This mentality can mean a lot of different things, but essentially the idea helps to construct lineups that are not focused on simply cashing, but rather on securing a first-place finish. The reason for this is easily understood in the context of a Showdown Slate where you can only roster six players from one game, and the top lineup is often duplicated many times leading to split pots. Playing fearless in this context involves aiming for first and aiming to be unique so as to have first place all to yourself. Even in Main Slate contests, you want to be unique, but with nine players and 12 different games on a given slate, duplicated lineups are more rare and you can win while still including chalky players on your roster. The idea of “Playing Fearless” still applies within this context and it has something to do with building for a scenario where you replay a slate 100 or even 1,000 times.

There was a very sharp discussion going on in the Inner Circle Discord this week about how SIMS might be changing the game as the system is utilized by more players. SIMS takes ownership projections and player projections and looks for the best low owned plays with the highest projections in stacks that are volatile with high ceilings (that’s a lot of factors). These are all of the things that OWS tries to identify through the NFL Edge and DFS Interpretations and the various other amazing articles on The Scroll. As a result, ownership projections can significantly change from Saturday Night to Sunday morning. Maybe Jimmy Buffet did say it best, “there’s a thin line between Saturday night and Sunday morning”. A guy may go from being a smart play (significantly +EV) at projected ownership to a play that is too highly owned and was only really a smart play because no one was on it. A chalky player could lose ownership as a result and be more attractive to the roster. The effect is different for the various contest sizes and buy-in tiers. Let me try to give you an example of all of this.

Week 14 Alvin Kamara

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Week 15

SEARCHING FOR CEILING – HILOW & RICH HRIBAR

SOLO SHIP – JM & Squirrel Patrol

DFS LABS DK – PAPY & Cheeseman

BLOCK PARTY – JM & PETER OVERZET

Week 15 first Look

DFS LABS FD – Mike Johnson & Maximus

DFS LABS DK – Hilow & Cheeseman