Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

Who’s ready for Week 12?! 

I was listening to a popular podcast this past Monday when the hosts started talking about the NFL playoff picture for the first time this season. While it’s too early to do so, it’s not surprising to hear it discussed because it’s good content for the fans. It’s right around this time of year when we start to envision our favorite team making a playoff run in the new year and dreaming about a Super Bowl victory. It’s the NFL’s job to keep us hooked all season long!

Even though we’re just entering Week 12, my gut reaction when listening to this segment around what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today was that as much as things change, they tend to stay the same. The NFL likes to have playoff turnover year to year. Some seasons it’s massive, and some it’s just a few new teams in with old teams out. Parity is good for the league as they want as many fans as possible to be tuning in and attending games as late as possible into each season.

One of the factors the NFL puts in place to help them achieve this playoff turnover is in the creation of the NFL schedule. Taken directly from the NFL website, here is how the schedules break down for each team: 

• Six games against divisional opponents – two games per team, one at home and one on the road.
• Four games against teams from a division within its conference – two games at home and two on the road.
• Four games against teams from a division in the other conference – two games at home and two on the road.
• Two games against teams from the two remaining divisions in its own conference – one game at home and one on the road. Matchups are based on division ranking from the previous season.
• The 17th game is an additional game against a non-conference opponent from a division that the team is not scheduled to play. Matchups are based on division ranking from the previous season.

I’m less concerned with the details of all 17, but more importantly, I want you to pay attention to the three games determined by the bold text. Those three games will come against opponents who finished in the same place in their division the previous season. This is why we get Bills and Chiefs frequently, why the 49ers have a harder schedule this season than the Cardinals, and so on and so forth. 

It’s just one factor, but despite what has seemed to some like an insane 11 weeks so far of football, look at the current AFC playoff picture with seeding: 1) Chiefs 2) Bills 3) Steelers 4) Texans 5) Chargers 6) Ravens 7) Broncos. The next four out are the Colts, Dolphins, Bengals, and Jets. The order may not be what we expected in August, but at least five of the seven teams are right where we thought they would be, with Pittsburgh and Denver the exceptions. We could talk about the ups and downs of the season, but really, there is one big surprise in the AFC, and it’s the win/loss record of the Bengals.

On the NFC side, it’s a bit more chaotic, but with chances to normalize in the next two weeks: 1) Lions 2) Eagles 3) Cardinals 4) Falcons 5) Vikings 6) Packers 7) Commanders. The next four out are the Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, and Buccaneers. The Cards, Vikes, and Commanders are likely surprises where they are seeded, with the 49ers, Seahawks, and Cowboys all a bit lower than anticipated so far. But again, a few more games in the coming 7-10 days and this could look more in line with our collective expectations.

I thought this was useful to go through at this point in the NFL (DFS) calendar because I think it illustrates how to get things right. If you were asked to predict the playoffs before the season, there’s a zero-percent chance you would have taken all of last year’s playoff teams in a conference and removed them for seven new ones. That would have been too contrarian and unrealistic. If instead, you were rational about it, you would have landed somewhere that more properly reflects where we are now 12 weeks into a season — about four or five teams repeat teams, with maybe three or four new teams in the mix. After all, you know those top seeds will face a harder strength of schedule and you know there will be some random outcomes during the course of an NFL season. If you were really trying to predict things correctly, you’d go after some sort of logical and chaotic mix.

The same structure should apply when we go after a first-place DFS roster. The art of prediction is imperfect and impossible. We know that in a small sample (one game or one week) anything can happen. But we also know that on any given slate we’re going to have a lot of information to arm us in the best way possible such as expected game totals, injuries, matchups, positional scarcity, projected ownership, and more. We want to build for “anything can happen” scenarios, while also accounting for the rational information at our disposal.

We’re not trying to build lineups around perfect predictions. We are trying to outscore other DFS players and their entries to take home the best possible reward. In order to do this, you have to think like a season-long mindset inside of a one-game sample. Recognize that over the long haul, most performances will normalize (it’s why regression is a thing), and so if that’s the case, there will be peaks and valleys along the way. Mix it all up and you want to be left with a prediction set that is sensible, yet uncharted, because that type of roster (prediction) would be full of outcomes that actually can happen and wouldn’t be deemed outrageous at kickoff.

Week 12: Angles

We’ll take a slightly different approach this week. With another 10-game slate on the horizon (six teams on bye), and with a whole slew of studs missing from this slate at each position, let’s see how valuable it can be to look at some of the games through an off-script lens. (For any Inner Circle members who were also around last season, I penned a short piece called “Off Script” on specific primetime showdown slates to complement Xandamere’s analysis and breakdowns. I miss those a bit but mostly because it forced me to really think through thin-but-possible-outcomes. Small sample, but we hit a few throughout the season.)

In going off script, we’re taking the games below and turning them on their sides to expose a possible game environment that many won’t expect. In large-field GPP play, or on Showdown slates, this can be a valuable approach if you can hit these outcomes right. Note as we go through that each path we can identify won’t be the most unlikely thing to happen, but rather, a possible, specific route to an outcome we could all envision.

Lions (29) // Colts (21.5): This game has the highest implied total on the slate, being boosted by the Lions 29+ implied team total. At face value, the natural reaction to this game is to see the Lions doing the same thing to the Colts that they did to the Jags in Week 11. The primary difference, however, is the Colts’ offense should have more success than Jacksonville (based solely on implied totals). You’ll see more Lions overstacks this week, less hesitation to play guys like Goff and St. Brown, and likely some love for Anthony Richardson after his comeback performance at the Jets. If Indy can stay relatively close here, an overlooked Jonathan Taylor could be the reason why. If they can keep him on the field, which the Colts would like to do, that means the Lions’ offense is off the field. Taylor’s rushing matchup stinks on paper, but maybe the Colts can be creative in how they use him.

Cards (24) // Seahawks (23): A one-point spread and a 47-point total should spell fantasy goodness, and as of this writing it seems most of the public money is indeed on the over. That’s likely because of Seattle proving it’s comfortable betting on Geno’s arm in any game (leads the NFL with 37 pass attempts per game) while Arizona’s offense has looked great at home in its last two games (average of 30 points vs. Bears, Jets). A slow, dragged-out slugfest played through the running games is in play, with James Conner and Kenneth Walker picking up most of the work. The Cardinals have five games already this season with more than 169 team rushing yards (league average is about 113). Coincidentally, Seattle gives up the fifth-most yards per rush attempt in the league.

49ers (22.75) // Packers (24.75): The other featured late-window game this Sunday is these now-rivals matching up yet again after the Niners have knocked the Packers out of the playoffs in three of the past five seasons (2023, 2021, 2019). This game has a similar 47.5-point total, and if Green Bay had lost last week to Chicago, the narrative would have been much different. San Francisco is being pegged as the team that is much more obviously struggling, but the Pack have also not been what we expected. Of note is that their last three wins have all been by three points or less. So whether you believe in a 49ers renaissance now or not, this 7-3 against 5-5 matchup is closer than it appears. The only prudent thing to do would be to play this as a one-sided game, with either team in a dominant victory, as you won’t find that expected outcome anywhere you look on paper.

Cowboys (17.5) // Commanders (27.5): Beyond the three above, every other game on this slate involves a team implied for less than 20 points. This includes the Cowboys here in Washington, where the Commanders are expected to dominate this game. The data points to Brian Robinson Jr. and the Washington rushing attack, and if Jayden Daniels is hurting more than we know, it could be a game where the ball is deflated and Washington runs, runs, runs. It’s not likely on a short week (and with Thanksgiving looming) that Dallas keeps up with either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance at QB, so the obvious off-script path here is Washington winning via the air and Daniels, McLaurin, and others.

Chiefs (27) // Panthers (16): There’s almost no logical scenario here where Carolina keeps up…unless you can foresee a downright ugly game, where both teams score in the teens ala Denver’s blueprint against KC a few weeks ago. The only problem is Carolina’s defense is not Denver’s. Carolina should lean on Chuba Hubbard as much as possible, but it will be a real challenge to find any success against a defense allowing the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. What version of the KC team we get will dictate this outcome, but if it goes off script, it’s likely by neither offense succeeding much.

Patriots (19.5) // Dolphins (26.5): Miami with a healthy implied total hosting the cold-weather team in the Florida heat usually spells success. The Patriots have been hanging around with Drake Maye in recent weeks while their offensive weapons (is Kendrick Bourne a weapon now?) and the defensive unit (Christian Barmore) gets a bit healthier. The Patriots upset here is the off-script outcome I am seeing, if we think Maye can find success and New England can win in the trenches on both sides. This likely only happens if Miami doesn’t capitalize in the red zone and settles for field goals, as it’s likely they will have no problem moving the ball on the Patriots’ defense. Can the Pats’ offense put up 24 points? Would anyone be shocked if Miami blew one at home to a divisional opponent? I’ll be watching ownership here to see how to play this on both sides.

That’s six of the 10 on the slate to give you a feel for some possible ways we can size these up. I didn’t mention the Bucs, Broncos, Texans, or Vikings who are all favorites as well, and who are in matchups they can win. The Vikings and Texans have had a few weeks now of not much working on offense (except the Houston running game), while the Bucs will come out of their bye week healthier against Tommy Cutlets and the Giants, and the Broncos want to continue their winning ways against Vegas.

In theory, anything can happen this week. But in reality, it’s not just anything. We still have some season-long targets to hit. Every small sample is a data point in a larger sample, and since we’ll always be able to more properly identify the long-range outcomes, regression is a powerful tool.

You know these teams. You can see the ways these games can play out. Go build and go win. All it takes is one week to make your season!

And with that, we’ll see you on the site, hanging out in Discord, and building winning lineups in the Bink Machine this weekend!

Good luck!

~Larejo

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

The field is expressing such a massive degree of certainty on this slate, as evidenced by the current ownership projections. What I see is a large swath of ownership expected in the mid-range of wide receiver pricing, two pay-down options at running back, and pay-up tight ends. But if we take that information in the context of this slate, we find that the places where the field is expressing certainty aren’t all that certain at all.

Furthermore, there aren’t any quarterbacks that have “put the slate out of reach” upside, at least not at great frequency, but there also aren’t many quarterbacks that are priced up on this slate. That means we should expect the field to demonstrate very clear intentions as far as salary allocation and roster construction are concerned.

Finally, there is one true game environment that could turn into something you had to have on this slate, and it currently appears as if players from that game are going to garner ownership that falls well short of expectations with that setup. All of that to say, it isn’t going to take much to generate meaningful leverage on this slate. I absolutely love slates like this!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

KAREEM HUNT

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. A running back that ranks third in expected fantasy points per game against the opponent ceding the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs at a price of just $5,700 sounds pretty neat to me.

DE’VON ACHANE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. As we’ve said in the past (and will continue to until his salary is changed to reflect his role), De’Von Achane is one of the most materially underpriced players on the slate.

BRIAN ROBINSON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is the hardest one for me because the matchup, game environment, and role clearly point to Brian Robinson being a solid on-paper play, but at the same time, this is an offense that rarely provides enough volume for a single player to return a GPP-viable score. Even so, I am interested here.

JAKOBI MEYERS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is one of those spots where I think it is prudent to ask ourselves the question “what do we win if we’re right?” As in, how many paths does Jakobi Meyers have in this spot to return a score you could not win without? Very few.

COURTLAND SUTTON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is one of those spots where I think it is prudent to ask ourselves the question “what do we win if we’re right?” As in, how many paths does Courtland Sutton have in this spot to return a score you could not win without? Very few.

JAMES CONNER

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is one of those spots where I think it is prudent to ask ourselves the question “what do we win if we’re right?” As in, how many paths does James Conner have in this spot to return a score you could not win without? Very few.

TRAVIS KELCE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I think it is at least reasonable to consider the fact that three of Kelce’s four games with double-digit targets this season came in games played without both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Rashee Rice. It could be a signal of how this team wants to utilize their aging tight end during the regular season. As in, Kelce has just one game of double-digit looks in six appearances with either Rice or Smith-Schuster active. I don’t know if we can write that off as a coincidence.

JOE MIXON

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I get it, Joe Mixon has seen an absolutely elite role on an offense in the top half of the league in scoring. But man, this is not the best spot for him when considering the likeliest game environment and matchup. I don’t think I would rather spend the salary on Mixon over wide receivers with massive upside (more on this below).

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Sunday Morning Update

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Kyler Murray
Bucky Irving
Rachaad White
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Kavonte Turpin
Luke Schoonmaker
Trey McBride
Broncos

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Find The “BUB Challenge” Channel Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

De’Von Achane

The breakdown here is simple as can be. From my DFS Interpretations for this game ::

Achane has now played 15 regular season games A) with a role, B) with Tua under center, and in those 15 games, he has scored 20.5+ DK points 10 times(!), and has scored 25+ eight times. The Patriots rank 28th in run defense DVOA and have had games this year in which they have gotten visibly pushed around on the ground. Achane is a high-probability bet to hit this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“20%”

Kyler Murray + Marvin Harrison Jr. + Trey McBride

Story:

“For the third time this year, Kyler // MHJ // McBride keeps you on a 210+-point pace”

Why It Works:

So far this year, MHJ and McBride have hit for ceiling together, with each of their “two best games of the season” coming in the same two games. In those same games, of course, Kyler also hit. We explored this in the Angles Pod today, but if the typical player on DK is priced in such a way that they’ll keep you on a 200-point pace roughly 25% of the time, then the chances of getting three uncorrelated players correct on the same roster together would be 1.56%. These three correlated players, on the other hand, have allowed you to cover three spots at a 200-point pace 20% of the time this year. This is how we turn the math in our favor in DFS.

How It Works:

Kyler // MHJ // McBride + a bring-back takes up four of your eight non-DST spots, which doesn’t leave you much room for additional strategy thinking. Use these remaining four spots to focus on maximizing ceiling, trusting that this stack will be unique enough to leave you competing for first place against only a small portion of the field.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“75%”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Rhamondre + Dolphins

From my Rhamondre writeup in the Bonus section of the Player Grid ::

If the Patriots are keeping things close, he always has a clear shot at 20+ DK points. He works best in Maye/Henry rosters (which fit with the thesis of the Patriots keeping things close), but he can also be played away from those two. I would not play Rhamondre without a piece from the Dolphins on the other side, as that would be a story of “Patriots dominate,” which is highly unlikely to be the case. Instead, you want the story of “Patriots score points, and that forces the Dolphins to score points too,” which would absolutely mean some nice tourney scores emerging from Miami.

This first rule, then, says “on Rhamondre rosters, always include one to two of these pieces from the Dolphins”

Of course, we don’t necessarily want our Rhamondre rosters overrun with Waddle and Jonnu bring-backs, as these are less-likely paths to this play coming together. With this in mind, this second rule says, “On 90% of Rhamondre rosters, include one to two of Tyreek // Achane.”

Personally, I also don’t want my “Dolphins doubles” to include Waddle or Jonnu. Basically, I’m happy playing Tyreek and Achane together; but that’s the only Dolphins pairing I want.

So first off, we make sure the Bink Machine is allowed to play two Dolphins without Tua, by setting “max flex” on the Dolphins to 2.

And then, we create a rule for both Jonnu and Waddle that says, “if playing this player, don’t play any of the other players on this list.”

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Kyler Murray || Geno Smith || Baker Mayfield || Tommy DeVito || Brock Purdy || Jordan Love

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback ::

• Kyler Murray –  His salary and ownership are modest, while he has affordable stacking partners. Murray’s fantasy performance has largely hinged on his rushing production, and in a high leverage NFC West matchup, I think we could see him do more with his legs.
• C.J. Stroud – Stroud has only scored 20 DK points twice this season and has not done so since Week 5 (when Nico went down). This is the lowest salary he has had all year in a matchup where the Texans may struggle to run the ball and where they are projected to score a lot of points. It won’t surprise me at all if Stroud posts his first 300-yard, 3-TD game of the season in this spot.
• Anthony Richardson – Highest game total on the slate, playing at home against the best offense in the league. Richardson’s accuracy appears to be improved and he had 10 designed runs last week.
• Salary Savers: Brandon Allen, Tommy DeVito, Cooper Rush

Running Back :: 

• De’Von Achane – One of the best roles in the league, playing at home in a terrific matchup. Achane hasn’t had a true “ceiling” game yet this season, but this could be it.
• Jahmyr Gibbs // David Montgomery – Similar to last week, I think the Lions score 4 or 5 TDs in this matchup most times which means these guys are likely to have solid scores with potential for one of them to really post a big one. We can pretty much count on neither of them becoming too popular thanks to the presence of the other.
• Josh Jacobs – Playing very well recently and facing a 49ers team that is depleted on both sides of the ball. Jacobs should be very involved and has a clear path to 100+ rushing yards and multiple TDs.
• Christian McCaffrey – We have seen CMC post huge games in far worse offensive situations throughout his career than what the 49ers offense will look like this week.
• Brian Robinson Jr. – Everyone runs on the Cowboys. Robinson has a low salary, a high probability of scoring at least one touchdown, and a realistic shot at going over 100 yards.
• Kareem Hunt – With Isiah Pacheco ruled out, Hunt should serve as the workhorse for the Chiefs for the majority of this game. I am slightly concerned about how they handle things if they build a big lead and the fact that Hunt seems unlikely to catch more than one or two passes.
• Salary Savers: Ameer Abdullah, Javonte Williams, Bucky Irving

Wide Receiver :: 

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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

To Whom It May Concern,

DraftKings must’ve read my letter. I politely asked them to make the popular plays cheaper, so ownership would condense even harder on the “best plays” – leaving the randoms I like to roster completely ignored. LFG!

Seriously though, you don’t need to dive into the abyss of obscure plays to separate from the field. There are plenty of high-ceiling options out there that the field isn’t tripping over themselves to roster.

But I’ll make this disclaimer anyway…

These are contrarian moves I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Sometimes we’ll miss, but the ones that do hit will help us lap the field.

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

CeeDee Lamb/Noah Brown

These Friday night ownership projections look almost too good to be true, so definitely keep an eye on them. But with both guys sitting in single digits right now, I’m interested. They’ve got solid PPD values and are already on the radar for small-field tournaments. If one of them, especially Lamb, pops off early, it could juice up this game environment and make them large-field viable too.

Jahmyr Gibbs/Josh Downs

Even though Anthony Richardson isn’t expensive, Downs (4% pOWN) could get there without his chalky QB, thanks to his PPR-driven upside in a likely trailing game script. Meanwhile, the Lions might finally do this week what most expected last week: feed Gibbs (7% pOWN) and David Montgomery (4.6% pOWN) relentlessly until the Colts bend the knee.

Rome Odunze/T.J. Hockensen

Both Rome and Hock have proven they’re capable of slate-breaking performances, which, at their prices, should result in higher ownership than currently projected. Odunze saw a significant 10 targets last week, and with health concerns surrounding teammates Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift, his role could expand further. Hockenson faces a Vikings defense that’s been tough on wideouts but more lenient against tight ends. Given these factors, both players should be projecting as more popular, yet they’re sitting at just 5% and 6% ownership, respectively.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This slate has a single stand-out game in the top tier. DET/IND (50) is the only total that cracks the 48-point threshold.
• The middle tier holds most of the slate with five games. AZ/SEA (47.5), NE/MIA (46), DAL/WASH (45), SF/GB (44.5), and KC/CAR (43) all have paths to becoming high or low-scoring affairs.
• The bottom tier has four games and rounds out what is a less-than-exciting slate from an expected points scored perspective. DEN/LV (41), TB/NYG (41), TEN/HOU (40.5), and MIN/CHI (39.5) are all predicted to be low-scoring contests.

Pawn – TE Luke Schoonmaker ($2,500)  

Jake Ferguson has been ruled out which opens Schoonmaker as a value play. Schoonmaker saw 10 targets last week on 53% of the snaps with Ferguson leaving early. The 53% snap rate isn’t ideal, but that could tick up with a week of preparation as the starter. Even if his snap rate stays the same, it is clear that he will be involved in the passing game. Cooper Rush ($5,000) spread 15 targets between his top two TEs, and while that came in a 55-pass attempt game, it still shows that he is the type of QB who leans into his TEs. Washington has been middling (16th in DVOA) against TEs, but the matchup means less than the price. Schoonmaker is min-priced, which opens a lot of options on the rest of your roster. It’s tough to ignore someone for the minimum salary who has a realistic 5-8 target projection, with the possibility for more in the right game script. I’m going to take the free square on Schoonmaker.

Knight – RB Kareem Hunt ($5,700)

Isiah Pacheco has been ruled out another week and that leaves the KC backfield in the hands of Hunt. Hunt has been used as a modern-day workhorse since fully taking over the Chiefs backfield in Week 5. He plays 60-65% of the snaps and gets the bulk of the RB opportunities. From Week 5 through Week 10, Hunt saw 28 // 24 // 22 // 28 // 24 opportunities before only seeing 14 last week in a game where the offense generally struggled in a tough matchup. This week Hunt gets the Panthers defense which has been run over all season. The Chiefs are two score favorites and it’s highly probable that we see a game script where Hunt gets 20-25 opportunities, with a chance for more if Andy Reid decides to ride the ground game to an easy victory. I’m going to use Hunt across all my builds, as a clearly mispriced player in an excellent matchup. 

Bishop – WR Calvin Ridley ($5,700)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 12 Topics

1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. Smash Spots

3. Early Discounts

4. Value Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?

The Answers ::

JM >>

A couple things stand out to me this week.

Firstly, we have only four teams implied to score 25+ points — and all of them are favored by seven or more points. This means that the “favored outcome” for every game on the slate is either A) one team winning comfortably, or B) neither team scoring a ton of points. Of course, if we were just taking ONE game, and were identifying the “favored outcome” and then playing out that game, we would probably get a “slate” that looks a lot like we were expecting. But we have 10 games, and it’s unlikely that all 10 play out exactly as expected. So for me, the questions become :: 1) can one of these more heavily-favored teams either A) stay aggressive regardless of score, or B) be put in position to have to be aggressive; and 2) can one of these games implied for a lower score instead become higher-scoring?

Secondly, we have sweeping price cuts from the DraftKings salary factory. It’s normal for pricing to rise throughout the year; but this year — in a low-scoring year for real-life football and, in particular, for fantasy — DraftKings got way too aggressive with their pricing, way too early in the year. For a good month and a half, we’ve been exploring the unique nuances that are in play this year with so many players so clearly overpriced; but now, out of nowhere, pricing has been slashed all over the place. As I’ve noted a few times this week: this doesn’t necessarily lead to me feeling we now have “a bunch of underpriced players” so much as I feel we have players who are “less overpriced than before”; but this is a unique component that gives us another feature to deal with in putting together this week’s puzzle.

Xandamere >>

There’s only one game that really looks like an obvious stacking spot (ARI/SEA). I guess that isn’t entirely unique this season, but it feels very much the case this week. There are high total teams in good spots which is drawing ownership but that’s primarily going to the running backs, whereas at pass catcher spots it feels like the chalk is pretty darn shaky. I guess that makes this week not very unique…since it makes it very similar to last week (except without the two “obvious” spots to stack of BAL/PIT and SEA/SF, which, of course…both flopped horribly). 

Hilow >>

This is another slate where the field is demonstrating clear intentions when it comes to where they plan on spending salary, which is likely to lead to an extremely straightforward chalk build. It is also a slate with one clear game environment that stands head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to chances of becoming something you had to have, and yet, the field seems to be taking an underweight approach to said game (Lions-Colts). I love slates with this type of setup as it becomes extremely easy to generate meaningful leverage on the field while not even straying from the top on-paper plays.

Mike >>

Mike’s answers will be live later Saturday

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2. Smash Spots

The Question ::

Last week we saw the Lions absolutely dominate the Jaguars in a game where basically every Lions player with a full-time role posted a game that could help you win a tournament. That may have been a bit excessive, but as we have seen macro trends of scoring and passing across the NFL be moderate this season and we have talked about all season that specific game environments can separate rather easily if and when they do hit. A team doesn’t need to score 50+ points and have 600 yards like the Lions did to bust a slate completely open and at this time in the year you start to see some teams looking to the future and others trying to make the playoffs and/or sharpen up for a deep run. Those ingredients give the potential for games like last week’s to be even more important to identify on a weekly basis and the shorter slates that we see during bye weeks, Thanksgiving, Christmas, etc. make those spots even higher leverage. I see six games on the ten-game slate that could turn into a “smash spot” for one of the teams::

• KC @ CAR
• DAL @ WAS
• NE @ MIA
• TEN @ HOU
• DET @ IND
• DEN @ LV

Do any of these spots stand out to you as potential “smash spots” that we should be considering making concentrated bets on team stacks?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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OUTLOOK

Week 12 offers us a 10-game main slate where the DK interns may have overseen the pricing as several players saw significant price cuts for no apparent reason – see Kareem Hunt, priced $1,000 less than last week in one of the best on-paper matchups. From a macro perspective, we are seeing total RB ownership come in around 250%, meaning most rosters are likely to play an RB in flex again this week, a trend we’ve seen happening more and more in 2024. We’ll discuss how we can leverage that knowledge more below with two of the three best (on paper) games of the day coming in the afternoon window.

Important Early Outcomes To Watch:

De’Von Achane – The field is expressing certainty that the Dolphins scoring is going to flow through Achane, and he is projecting for over 30% ownership, one of the two highest on the slate (with Kareem Hunt). Achane is fundamentally underpriced for his role in the Miami offense averaging 19 opportunities a game since the Dolphins Week 5 bye with 5.5 targets a game. In my opinion, he is the best on paper play of the slate. 

Kareem Hunt – Similarly to Achane, Hunt is projecting over 30% ownership with Pacheco ruled out this week. Hunt is averaging 22 touches a game and Carolina has been gashed by opposing RBs this season. Like Achane, I think this chalk is “good chalk”, and warrants the high projected ownership.

Travis Kelce – The Chiefs have the second-highest team total on the slate and the field is expressing confidence that one (or both) of Kareem Hunt or Travis Kelce is going to succeed. Kelce is one of three TEs who can put up a had to have it score at the position (along with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride), and at 25% projected ownership, he’s a situation to monitor. 

Detroit Lions – The Lions have the highest implied team total on the slate at 29, and while Detroit does tend to spread the ball around, we just saw last week how they can explode on offense.  If the TDs once again flow through one or two of their primary players, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a Lion post a 30-point fantasy score once again.

Slate Breakers – Such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 58.4 DK point performance in week 10 or Taysom Hill’s 46.5 outburst last week.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 12 Overview

Back to another three-game slate, which as I have discussed all year, is far from my favorite. Once again, in large field tournaments, we need to find ways to differentiate our lineups to have any sort of win equity. The best ways that I have found to do this are:

1. Choosing a very low-owned play to start your lineup and then building backward from there. Dylan Laube and Troy Franklin are my top options in that mold this week. Laube is min-price at RB and it would make sense for the Raiders to give him a good look in a lost season. Franklin has been very close to some big games and eventually, he is going to connect on a deep TD with Nix. These two have the mix of cheap with paths to 15 to 20 points at almost no ownership that can completely unlock the slate for you.
2. Leaving salary on the table. There are too many options on a main slate to justify leaving $1,000 to $1,500 of salary on the table, as somewhere in your lineup you are very likely putting yourself at too big of a disadvantage to overcome. On the short slate, it’s much more viable. The best way I’ve found to get there is to build a lineup using most or all of the salary and then look for the player you are least confident in and scroll down from him for a much cheaper player you feel has a similar outlook.
3. Full onslaught in one game – with up to four players (and maybe a defense as well) from one team and a couple from their opponent, or even 3 and 3. The ARI/SEA game is a good example this week. It’s entirely possible that the top point scorer at every position emerges from this game. It’s also very viable the Cardinals score 4 touchdowns with Kyler and Conner accounting for all of them (maybe connecting on one through the air) and Kenneth Walker breaks a long play and catches a few passes. Building onslaughts in unique and non-traditional ways on these slates can help you separate yourself from the field that is building lineups only in ways that “make sense” on main slates.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.

Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.

(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)

Anthony Richardson (IND) OVER 29.5 Pass Attempts

7.5 point home dogs to the never-take-the-foot-off-the-pedal Lions who see 36.8 pass attempts against compared to just 22 runs a game. Last week, Richardson looked at his best versus the Jets, who were holding QBs to sub-200 passing yards going in. There is, in my opinion, no way you can go back to Joe Flacco vs the Lions at home even if he regresses back into a pumpkin. We just need ARich to be somewhat competent here to move the ball enough to run enough plays.

The bet is good to: -130

Cooper Rush (DAL) UNDER 33.5 Passing Attempts

Dallas is a 10.5 road dog and Mike McCarthy said he regretted not getting some run for Trey Lance in last week’s blowout, lowering the chance that Rush can get here in garbage time. Teams have thrown an average of 27 times per game vs Washington, running more than they pass, making it likely Dallas comes out with a run-first approach vs a defense giving up nearly 125 on the ground.

The bet is good to: -130

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

What is the right formula for a winning lineup? We’re all searching for it each week. It’s out there, and with all the information at our disposal each week, you’d think we’d all hit the right balance more often. The challenge is, of course, the variance and unpredictability that ensues in every game every week. We can’t account for that, but as we always say, we can account for the fact that variance will come, meaning we should rarely look at a lineup and feel perfectly comfortable about it.

It’s Week 12, we’re about to head into the holiday season and you’ve read a lot of words this season so I’m keeping this upfront piece brief. On this slate, we know the top teams who are supposed to put up points: Detroit, KC, Miami, and Washington. We know the games that are expected to draw the most eyes: Lions/Colts, 49ers/Packers, and Cardinals/Seahawks. We should have a good handle like always on where the ownership will come in. All we have to do is lean into a unique style, find the overlooked situations, and patiently wait for them to hit. Remember this week, to be you, to predict the present (using what you know) and control the chaos to find the best blend this week.

(shameless plug :: the Predicting the Present course is likely going to be available for just a few USD this coming week on the site, be on the lookout!)

Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton + Brock Bowers

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

Many of us who play DFS have at one point in time been athletes ourselves. Perhaps we haven’t played at the highest levels, but there is something true about success at every level of athletics, and that is when the game finally slows down. You can have the best natural attributes and developed skills, but if the game is moving too fast for you to process, you can’t establish a level of success. My sport was water polo. I played in high school and college. I can distinctly remember during my first year when the game was simply moving too fast and I found myself with my head underwater most of the time. I can also remember when the game finally slowed down enough for me. Luckily, it didn’t take too long and my confidence and success soared.

DFS is a fast-paced and repetitive game. All successful players need a process and an ability to slow that weekly (or daily if you play other sports) grind down. What happens if you cannot slow it down is that bias has a stranglehold over your decision making. I heard a comment made on a popular podcast today that said something to the effect of, “last week we had to play 30% Kayshon Boutte…” and it struck me. Is that how some people think and process their DFS decisions? Do we have to find ways to win within a herd mentality? By Week 12 of the season, there is a reality that the best plays (or lineup decisions) are easier to identify and often those best plays will be higher owned, but there is also a reality that you have to play fearless and step outside of the herd mentality in order to have a shot at first place.

My mantra for building lineups has three parts: Play for First, Build Lineups that can score 200 points, and Play Fearless. Bias often hinders our ability to do this, especially omission bias. Our brains prefer passivity to active roles. We are prone to judge harmful inaction as a lesser evil than harmful action, like when we fail to make a +EV roster change or fail to eliminate someone from our player pool when building for MME. After the fact, we are harsher on decisions where we change a part of our lineup than when we don’t. Omission bias keeps a DFS player from playing fearlessly. I process these situations by recognizing that a bias, not my mind, is in charge of my decision making process. Last week I had trouble making a decision about my ownership of David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs. I liked both options, but I liked the $800 I saved with Monty, especially with the way I projected the game to play out. There were other voices in my head (bias) telling me to roster Gibbs because of his higher upside. Ownership ended up about even in some contests and in higher dollar contests Gibbs was 5% higher owned. I played a bit of both, but also settled on Gibbs in SE and higher dollar spots. Perhaps it was the +EV decision, but I was conflicted and chose what I deemed the safer play based on omission bias. We usually have multiple decisions like that on a roster, and the more we fail to recognize the bias involved, the closer we get to playing with the herd mentality. 

Not all bias is bad. I am biased to believe that a low owned cheap play highlighted by JM is better than a low owned cheap play that I can come up with. I believe this because I recognize my lack of NFL knowledge in comparison to others. When JM and Hilow were touting Kendrick Bourne as direct leverage off of the Boutte chalk, I recognized this as a certain bias that I was willing to incorporate into my lineup. Similarly, I did not like the way the PIT-BAL thoughts from OWS deviated from my own thoughts about the game. I played Pickens, but was hesitant to roster Lamar or Russ. Without the bias, I probably would have avoided everyone from that game completely. As DFS players we are prone to judge harmful inaction as more tolerable than harmful action. I regret my failure to recognize this bias with regard to the Gibbs-Monty situation (I ultimately chose inaction) but am happy that I did not let the OWS steam with regard to PIT-BAL move me to act. The game of DFS has slowed down for me after so many years. I know what decisions are being influenced by bias and am able to actually name the bias. At these times I can go back to my original thoughts about the slate (I write them down and you should too!) and make a good decision for my style of play and the tournaments I am entering. Sometimes I am able to incorporate biased thinking into my lineups in a +EV way and sometimes I have to swerve from the herd. Keep practicing this skill and someday the game will slow down for you as well.

Bias Around the Industry

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Week 12

Block Party – JM & Peter OVerzet

DFS LABS DK – PAPY & Cheeseman

DFS LABS DK – Statatl & Cheeseman

searching for ceiling – hilow & rich hribar

DFS LABS FD – Mike Johnson & Maximus

DFS LABS DK – Hilow & Cheeseman

FIRST LOOK – STATATL