Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

*Tabs are updated throughout the Weekend

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JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate.

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.

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The Grid ::

Explained >>>>

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”

Blue Chips

:: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Bonuses

:: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

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Angles Pod

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).

Correlated Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Tyrod Taylor
A.J. Dillon
Christian McCaffrey
Danny Amendola
Brandin Cooks
Marcus Johnson
Will Dissly
James Conner
Panthers

Find last week’s Bottom-Up Breakdown and join The Bottom-Up Build DraftKings Contest here!!

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Blue Chips

James Conner

Last week, James Conner played 82% of the Cardinals’ running back snaps, and a similar workload should be expected this week, in what should be a different game environment // setup if Kyler Murray is under center. As discussed in the Angles Pod this week: there are advantages to knowing, ahead of time, what you will do if Kyler is inactive come Sunday afternoon (most people will simply stick with Conner, which you could say would make him over-owned for the setup in which he’ll find himself), but if Kyler plays, we basically have a rare, full-time running back, priced down in the range of a 60% to 65% running back. Not a whole lot really needs to be said beyond that. If you’ve been reading my content for any length of time, you know that I’ll always be happy to take an underpriced, work-secure running back who can run the ball, catch passes, and score touchdowns. Conner has plenty of floor and ceiling for his price tag this week.

A.J. Dillon

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Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

The first thing we need to mention is the late-week placement of Amari Cooper on the COVID list, which fundamentally alters how we should be viewing the game with the top expected game environment on the slate. We’ll discuss this situation further both in the leverage section as well as on the Saturday pod.

Other than that quick reminder, I’d once again like to leave this section rather sparse to allow me to really dig into some Game Theory discussions later on. Xandamere and I will take an in-depth look at the macro slate view on the Saturday podcast.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

AJ DILLON:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. As I so brazenly declared in the Oracle, Dillon is hands down the top play on paper on the entire slate. It’s almost the exact on-paper play as D’Ernest Johnson from Week 10, in that we have a player stepping into a featured role with zero-depth behind him. I expect a heavy snap rate and opportunity share in a positive environment.

JAMES CONNER:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Similar play to Dillon with additional paths to failure, making him not quite as strong of a play. That said, he still remains one of the top expected point-per-dollar plays on the slate.

MARK INGRAM II:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk joins left tackle Terron Armstead as members of this offensive line that will be out this week. Tony Jones, Jr. is also expected to return this week from an extended absence so I don’t think we’re going to see the same 85% snap rate we saw from Ingram last week here. He goes from all-in in single entry and three-max last week to a borderline full fade this week for me.

TEE HIGGINS:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. For what seems like the 78^th week in a row, Tee Higgins makes an appearance here. The matchup isn’t perfect against a Raiders team that has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, but the biggest bump comes in the form of expected game environment (more on this below). Seven to nine high-value targets are his likeliest range of outcomes with upside for more should the Raiders keep pace.

MICHAEL GALLUP:

Expansive chalk. Of the five primary pass-catchers for the Cowboys this week (CeeDee Lamb, Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, Dalton Schultz, and Ezekiel Elliott), Gallup actually sets up the worst as far as pure matchup goes, yet he is expected to garner the highest ownership. I personally have no issue with looking elsewhere in this price range (or avoiding it altogether) for either the same expected workload in a better spot (I’ll hit on one such player below) or a player with more expected volume.

DAVANTE ADAMS:

Restrictive chalk. One of maybe three players that can go for 40+ points at a somewhat high frequency in this spot (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Christian McCaffrey). Said another way, the ceiling of those three players is unmatched on this slate.

TYREEK HILL:

Restrictive chalk. This one is a little bit of foreshadowing, as his current ownership levels are much lower than I expect them to be, come Sunday morning. One of maybe three players that can go for 40+ points at a somewhat high frequency in this spot (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Christian McCaffrey). Said another way, the ceiling of those three players is unmatched on this slate. 

CEEDEE LAMB:

Restrictive chalk. This one is a little bit of foreshadowing, as his current ownership levels are much lower than I expect them to be, come Sunday morning. CeeDee carries the best individual matchup for the Cowboys in the best game environment on the slate. The absence of Amari Cooper provides a slight boost to his expected volume, which is typically the only major knock to his fantasy prospectus.

COLE KMET:

Expansive chalk. Man, I was excited to play Kmet after Allen Robinson was ruled out . . . until I saw his expected ownership. Honestly, though, that doesn’t really matter much to me because there are easy ways to generate the required leverage to not even have to worry about the 15-20% expected ownership on Kmet. 

DARREN WALLER:

Restrictive chalk. This is simply a nod to the expected game environment in the Bengals / Raiders game. I do need to get something off my chest regarding this game environment though. The Raiders offense has looked entirely broken in the two games since He Who Must Not Be Named exited stage left, scoring only 16 and 14 points against the Giants and Chiefs, respectively. In order for this game environment to turn into what everyone is hoping it will, the Raiders are going to have to score some points. The loss of their primary downfield threat has left their offense entirely one-dimensional and predictably short-area focused. I also don’t think this game is going to be as “sneaky” as everyone is currently hoping it will be, furthering my hesitation for both sides here. Finally, the notable players in this game are mostly priced for the expectation of a shootout-style game environment, so if it isn’t there, lineups will be sunk (the lone exception to that is Tee Higgins, who carries an “okay” volume expectation in most game scenarios, and is priced at a level that won’t kill you if the game environment isn’t what most are expecting).

Chalk Build:

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Welcome to The Oracle! :: The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS!

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 11 Topics

1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

2. Cowboys/Chiefs, And…?

3. Floating-play strategy, Week 11

4. The gem that unlocks the slate

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle :: In no more than two or three sentences, tell us what makes this slate particularly unique.

The Answers ::

JM >>

Two things stand out to me here:

1) The Cowboys and Chiefs are playing one another. It seems like we’ve actually had a pretty lengthy stretch without a game like this (two explosive offenses squaring off in a game with a total north of 55) — which isn’t a game that is “guaranteed to be featured on every tourney-winning roster this week,” but it is a game that has the highest probability of powering tourney winners. As we’ll explore throughout The Oracle, there are plenty of different ways to attack this slate; but no matter how you’re attacking this slate, you have to keep this game in mind.

2) While we don’t have any ultra-cheap workhorse running backs, we do have two running backs in A.J. Dillon and James Conner who should see nearly all of their team’s running back touches, at a price tag much lower than we would normally have for a player who should see nearly all of their team’s running back touches. If volume is king at RB, then these two guys are wearing the crowns — especially once their price tags are considered.

While none of this should box us into any “one particular approach,” this does give us a starting point for understanding the slate — with two key spots that need to be accounted for as we build our rosters this week.

Xandamere >>

This is a week in which there is a lot of clarity around the best plays, or at least perceived clarity. Let’s look at why:

1. We have a one clear “best game” on the slate with Cowboys/Chiefs at 5.5 points above any other game. Two of the most explosive offenses in the league are playing each other!
2. We have a couple of very clear running back values in AJ Dillon and James Conner, both of whom have moved into larger roles that they just aren’t priced for due to injuries (there are some other value RBs who will be popular as well, but those two especially stand out).
3. We have a couple of clear value pass-catchers that help things fit, such as Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Marcus Johnson, Cole Kmet, and Dan Arnold.

Put all of those things together and it feels like this is a week where we can have a pretty high degree of confidence where the field is going. Those are my favorite weeks, because the easier it is to identify what chalk builds are going to look like, the easier it is to find ways to be different without having to dip far down into “bad plays.”

Sonic >>

From an MME perspective, the thing that stands out to me is the amount of high-ceiling wide receivers and high volume (and therefore high-floor) running backs that are currently projected for low ownership. I feel like I’ll be starting my portfolio with whopping amounts of Tee Higgins, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, AJ Dillon, Christian McCaffrey and James Connor…and then slowly taking shares away from these “perceived certainties” and allocating some of their shares to players like Justin Jefferson, Marquise Brown, Rashad Bateman, Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor as the weekend progresses. 

Hilow >>

Super interesting slate (I don’t know if I’ll ever let that bit go, so apologies on the front end). Digging through this slate, there are certain spots where we can be fairly certain will garner significant attention from the field. We also have another relatively stacked running back position with many plays in above average spots, and relative dearth of available floor plays at the wide receiver position (compared to running back), meaning another week where running back is the priority amongst the field. Decisions will also have to be made this week because pricing is #tight. Finally, I expect a good chunk of the field to force a sub-optimal play from the Dallas / Kansas City game (as in, entering the brain trust to find cheap exposure to that game). 

Larejo >>

Week 11 is Week 2, in my mind. This was my first thought of the week. 

Mostly based on the high game total late window games, combined with one clear and obvious best spot (Cowboys/Chiefs this week, Cowboys/Chargers in Week 2). I know we all remember how Week 2 turned out, with the obvious spot disappointing, but I am very much approaching my lineups this week with this thought in mind. Also in Week 2, we had three of the four late games hit the over, and dominate winning lineups so that is pushing me toward making sure I have some exposure to Cowboys/Chiefs but also the other high total late games.

MJohnson >>

1) Inflation is real….by that I mean that there are a lot of players whose prices are rising to levels where we have to consider more than just “can they have a big game?” There are 18 combined running backs and wide receivers priced at $7k or higher, meaning they would need 28 or more DK points to justify their cost in GPP’s. With this high number of upper tier players, it is likely that we have a few who hit those 30+ point games and not having the right ones will make winning very difficult.

2) There are only four games on the slate with totals of 48 or higher and three of those games are in the late window. Late swap and “seeing how the early games/chalk turn out” will be very +EV this week. There are a lot of interesting situations and ownership considerations to be made based on this reality. While late swap is not used by as much of the field as it should be, there will still likely be some tangible differences in ownerships of players in the late window based on people making adjustments after early games.

Majesstik >>

What stands out to me is we have another Cowboys game with the highest total on the slate starting at the latest time a game can start for the week. That would lead me to believe a lot of late-swap tension will be built around that game and there are only two other games to work with if moving off of the DAL/KC game in a late-swap differentiation move. Some moves that could occur are Zeke to Mixon which has a difference of $100. Lamb to Chase is $400, Kelce to Waller is $1000, or if you had Kelce in the Flex, then Kelce to Metcalf is only $300 difference (or Kelce to Chase for $100). If we’ll remember the last time this scenario happened, it was Cowboys/Chargers and the game disappointed. Both of the other games are interesting enough that if your strategy is to build with the idea we might want to late-swap out of the DAL/KC game, we have some solid options, as we did in Week 2 and both the Arizona and the Seattle games went over 63 points. Those teams play each other this week. Also, the Bengals are coming out of their bye and facing a team struggling to hold it together through a tumultuous season. 

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2. Cowboys/Chiefs, And…?

The Question ::

Game Environments, Week 11:

Chiefs game totals on the year:
62
71
54
72
58
44 <
30 <
37 <
20 <
55

Cowboys game totals on the year:
60
37 <
62
64
64
64
36 < (Cooper Rush)
46 <
46 <

It’s likely that “Cowboys at Chiefs” will be looked at differently than any other game on the slate. The Over/Under is 56.0 (as of this writeup), these teams have combined for nine games (in 19 tries) that have gone over that lofty total, and each team is capable of putting up points quickly enough that a “top game of the year” is within the reasonable range of outcomes.

Also within the reasonable range of outcomes, however, is a game that finishes slightly below, or even eight to 10 points below, that lofty Over/Under — and with players from this game generally priced for this game’s median outcome, there are certainly plenty of ways to handle this game, beyond the obvious (full stacks), including “hope to guess right on an individual play” exposure (due to the ways in which each of these teams uses its weapons, a “had to have it” game from one player likely means no other player on his team posts a “had to have it” score), and “fade this game altogether” builds (if this game finishes below its Over/Under, it wouldn’t be outlandish to find that all players from this game disappointed against their price tags; this would come together if the production in this type of game were to still flow through the highest-priced guys — leaving these “highest-priced guys” below where they need to be, while simultaneously blocking the lower-priced guys from smashing their price tags).

With all this in mind, then, there are still a LOT of ways to attack this slate, even with this Cowboys/Chiefs game hanging out on the horizon.

Are there any unique angles you see around that Cowboys/Chiefs game in particular, and/or around other ways to attack this slate from a game-environment perspective?

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Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week!

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Every week when I sit down to write this piece, I think to myself, “what would I want to read?” My primary goal in playing DFS is to win a boatload of money. I know I share this goal with many of you, but I bring this up to say that I will consume any content that I feel could get my mind and decisions closer to winning a massive first-place prize. So with this lofty goal in mind, when we came up with “Willing to Lose” last season, I felt like, ‘hey, you know what, I’ve seen some things when it comes to who takes down a million dollars each week. So we’re going to get bold, we’re going to stand on islands on our own, and although we’re going to be wrong many times, if we can repeat this over time, we put ourselves in position to take down a huge prize at some point.’ The concept of being willing to lose is an ironic strategy but it is absolutely unique to OWS, and it’s the right description of the mindset we should strive for to be playing for first place.

As we have reflected each Sunday this season and studied the lineups that have taken down mega GPPs, I’ve seen how there’s really no consistency or pattern in what type of lineups win first place. And while that’s a confidence-deflating thought, I’m choosing to look at this through a positive lens. Last Sunday in Week 10, for instance, what some would call a cash game lineup took down the big Milly Maker on DraftKings. I’ve seen completely uncorrelated lineups win one million bucks, as I’ve seen backup QBs and third-down running backs sit on those winning rosters. This is all to say that in this article, my goal is to create a safe zone. I want you to think of Willing to Lose as the Planet Fitness of DFS articles. A judgment-free zone, where a lightly used 30% snap share WR, or a road underdog two-down RB, or an unathletic and immobile QB can win you life-changing money.

I’ve now produced ten Missed Opportunity articles on OWS this season, and each one gets more frustrating. Hindsight will always be 20/20 of course, but I learn and reflect, and account for it in next week’s builds, and then another outcome shows itself. I should have come to this conclusion sooner but learning each week how to account for the infinite permutations that can come to life is paralyzing. We cannot possibly account for all of these outcomes. The only way I know how to play is to stack chips on certain plays and hope for the best. Build with process and live with the result. And to do that, while being different, is to take on risk and add a flavor of illogic to any build you come up with. So with this, I’ll continue to beat this drum: you are unique. The best way to be unique and build for you is to think independently. Even if you are not winning, you are growing and getting sharper by the day. We have plenty of NFL left to play this season, and your big takedown is coming this week.

Week 11

 This is a fascinating slate and one that reminds me of Week 2 this season. Back in Week 2, if you recall, we had four games in the late Sunday window, and all of the over/unders trumped the early games. There was conversation all week as to how few were too few players to put on a roster in the early window. Some were discussing that flat-out avoiding all those games would be +EV and contrarian because who wants to sit on zero points three hours into the slate?! And this was all correct, in a sense. But how did this slate play out? Here are those four games, you’ll probably remember Cowboys/Chargers the best…

Three of the four late games went over their totals, with the lone exception being the one game which most of us had the most exposure to: DAL/LAC. The DK Milly Maker was won with all players in this late slot, with the exception of Cooper Kupp, who went nuclear against the Colts. It’s not that history will repeat itself, but it’s important to recognize when slates seem similar, and this Week 11 layout does feel similar to Week 2.

This week, we have only three games in the late window, but much of the focus will be on one game: Cowboys/Chiefs. Beyond this game, we have a clustered set of four other games sitting between 47 and 50 total points. If you’ve read anything I’ve written this season, you know this is my crop of game environments to choose from (IND/BUF, GB/MIN, AZ/SEA, and CIN/LV). And as we may lose Kyler Murray in the AZ/SEA matchup, I’m naturally moving off that game as a full-stack and onto these other three. The challenge immediately becomes, how can we focus here, and be different from the field? Well, let’s start things off …

Derek Carr + two LV pass-catchers // Joe Mixon & Ja’Marr Chase

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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

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OWS Fam!

Week 11 was my lucky week in 2019 and I’m determined to replicate it! 

Here are my quick thoughts on the majority of relevant players on the slate. You’ll notice a lack of bold green wide receivers. That’s because I don’t like to accentuate the chalkier players at this position and I’m still waiting on ownership to formulate. Many of the best plays at WR are going to be very owned so picking your spots to overweight, fade, and semi fade will go a long way towards determining our success this week. 

See you in Discord. LFG!

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Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 11 and we’re past the halfway mark of the NFL season (sigh). I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP three times now and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! 

We’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there . . . why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

My highest projected quarterbacks are tightly clustered, with Jalen Hurts (1.4x), Tua Tagovailoa (1.55x), Justin Fields (1.7x), Lamar Jackson (1.15x), and Josh Allen (1.05x) all very close together. I’ll be playing all of these guys, but the safest options are the elite QBs, with Tua and Fields representing more risk/reward plays. I think Dak and Mahomes are viable in game stacks of their game despite low multipliers, but I don’t want a ton of exposure here. Cam Newton at 1.45x is “underpriced” as he is across the rest of the industry in a positive matchup and with great rushing upside. I expect him to settle around 1.3x later in the season. Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, and Ryan Tannehill round out my QB pool, all at 1.3x multipliers with strong game environments and/or team totals. 

Running Back:

While the other sites didn’t price up AJ Dillon sufficiently, Superdraft has him at a 1.15 multiplier, hanging around near guys like Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook. That has me mostly off of him (I like him, and he has a great ceiling, but I’ll get my exposure to him on other sites). I’m totally fine playing CMC at a 1x multiplier because so few running backs have a 20-point floor. D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, and Miles Gaskin all have a good combination of matchup and upside, and I think Darrel Williams at a 1.55x multiplier is viable if CEH doesn’t play, as is Mark Ingram at 1.45x if no Kamara. D’Onta Foreman is an interesting play at 1.8x. He won’t pop in projections because he’s being projected in a split role with Adrian Peterson, but he’s certainly looked better so far, and if the work skews his way, he could put up a really big game at a big multiplier and low ownership. 

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

• AJ Brown is too good of a receiver (and in too good of a matchup) to have a 1.3x multiplier.
• Jaylen Waddle is a very safe play at 1.55x with a high-volume role and in an elite matchup.
• Both Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase are in the floating play pool for me (and I also want to stack this game)
• CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper both have 1.3x multipliers in the best game environment of the week. I’m on board.
• Emmanuel Sanders at 1.65x against a pass-funnel defense. He goes from a strong play to an elite one if Cole Beasley misses.
• Tyreek Hill can be played anywhere, always, as despite the low multiplier he has a raw point ceiling well over 40 points.
• Finally, while the multiplier is low on Deebo Samuel at 1.2x, his rushing role (lol) has been expanding and he has massive after-catch upside against an atrocious defense.

Tight End:

Tight end, as always, is icky. You can take Travis Kelce and hope for a 25 point game in a week when the rest of the tight ends mostly fail, and I think that’s fine. I also really like Darren Waller as one of the few TEs who can challenge Kelce for raw ceiling, and here he gets help with a 1.2x multiplier. In the higher multiplier bucket: I like Dallas Goedert at 1.45x in a good matchup, and I like T.J. Hockenson at 1.5x as the best weapon on his team and in a matchup we’ve attacked with tight ends for years. The best “punt” plays to me are Dan Arnold, Dawson Knox, and Cole Kmet, all of whom have multipliers of 1.7x or higher and who have shown a strong involvement in their team’s offense.

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Joe Flacco look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

• The best game environments of the week are DAL/KC, CIN/LV, IND/BUF, and GB/MIN. Problem is, the multipliers in those games are pretty low, especially at quarterback. I’m more likely to stack those games with skill position players and not the quarterbacks (except for Burrow and Carr), but I will have modest exposure to Dak, Mahomes, and Allen.
• CIN/LV really stands out to me on Superdraft so I want to get into more detail here. It’s the second-highest total game of the week, but it’s also one where we get attractive multipliers from both QBs at 1.3x to Tee Higgins at 1.5x and Darren Waller at 1.2x. 
• Projections also lead me to the Dolphins/Jets, with Tua and Waddle standing out as two of the stronger plays, and you can work to get different here by adding a New York bring back, or by going to Gesicki instead of or in addition to Waddle.
• Finally, my high-risk, high-reward stack of the week is around the Baltimore/Chicago game, but with Justin Fields and his juicy 1.7x multiplier instead of Lamar. Fields has had two really strong games recently, both of which would have him well over 30 Superdraft points, and his receivers come with massive multipliers (Mooney is my favorite at 1.7x). You can bring it back with Marquise Brown at a 1.4x, or don’t use a bring back at all and hope the Baltimore scoring is spread out. Not for the faint of heart, but there’s a big ceiling here

Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting

Access my Personal Prop Betting Sheet Saturday Nights for all the +EV Prop Bets I’ve found leading up to lock, updated throughout Sunday Afternoons as late news is announced.

Bet Tracker 2021 NFL

Follow me on Twitter for more. DMs open for any questions on how to get started or general Prop Betting Strategy!

@FriendofFantasy

The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active over the last two weeks. There are bettors in there daily talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and College sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 11! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!

Week 10 Recap

EDGE BETS Week 9: 2-1
EDGE BETS 2021 Results: 17-16

Matt Ryan: Over 38.5 Passing Attempts

Result: Loss (21 Attempts)

The Atlanta Falcons looked downright terrible on both sides of the ball in Week 10 to drop to 4-5 on the season at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys to the tune of a 43-3 smackdown.  After entering the second quarter trailing 7-3, providing us with the beginnings of a game script favorable for Matt Ryan to sling it, the Dallas Cowboys put up 29 unanswered points to go into halftime up 36-3. After starting the second half with a three and out, it was only a matter of time before Ryan would be rested with a Thursday night date with the Patriots on tap in Week 11.

Teddy Bridgewater: Under 257.5 Passing Yards

Result: Win (226 Passing Yards)

Back to Back winning Under bets on Teddy Bridgewater as he completed 22/36 passes for 226 scoreless yards as the Philadelphia Eagles ran the ball 40 times, limiting the Denver Broncos to just 55 total plays (61.9 plays per game in 2021).  The Broncos played from behind for most of this game, leading to just 18 rush attempts, but they were effective when doing so as they accumulated 96 yards and a handful of first downs to keep the clock moving.  The Broncos don’t change their identity much at all but in extreme situations, and we can continue to target Bridgewater props when an underdog with increased prop numbers.

J.D McKissic: Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Result: Win (35 Receiving Yards)

Sometimes you just get a bit lucky. The Washington Football Team played in a positive game script throughout their surprising Week 10 win over the Tom Brady lead Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but McKissic mixed in just enough to cash in on all four of his targets for 35 yards. The WFT backfield caught all six of the RB targets in this one, as the Bucs continued to give up receptions freely to the position. Washington ran 71 total plays in this pace up affair, confirming volume is key to any over bet.

Personal Prop Bets Placed

Week 1: +10.0 Units

Week 2: -1.1 Units

Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)

Week 4: +4.65 Units

Week 5: +3.1 Units

Week 6: +2.4 Units

Week 7: -0.3 Units

Week 8: -5.7 Units

Week 9: +11.75 Units

Week 10: +5.8 Units

2021: +30.6 Units

Week 11 Edge Bets

Joe Burrow Over 268.5 Passing Yards

Book: Bet MGM (-111)

By MJohnson:

“These teams both have below average pass defenses and above average pass rates recently.”

“Cincinnati plays slow, but their elite pass rate recently has covered that up for their game environments.”

“It has been talked about extensively over the last few weeks, but it is worth mentioning again: the Bengals ran the ball at a very high rate early in the year in an effort to protect Joe Burrow in his return from an ACL tear and over the past few weeks have become extremely pass-heavy.”

“The Bengals are a team that is playing more aggressively with each passing week and is blessed with a blossoming young star quarterback, a trio of playmaking wide receivers, and an underrated all-purpose running back.”

“The likely game flow here involves both teams turning pass-heavy either by design (Bengals) or out of necessity (Raiders).”

Reasy’s Reasoning

This is a somewhat under-the-radar matchup of two teams that have really sped up their pace of play and passing rate over the last month or so. The Cincinnati Bengals have had a week to get things back on track with a well-timed Week 10 bye after a pair of losses to the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns as they look to start the unofficial second half of the 2021 season. Over the last four weeks, the Bengals of 2021 have looked much like the Bengals of 2020, with the obvious addition of Ja’Marr Chase. With this line, it appears we can continue to be early on this passing game breaking out. The Bengals are throwing at a near 70% situation-neutral pass rate over the last month, while their average plays per game and total plays in games have risen steadily from bottom tier to middle of the pack. We can expect lots of passing in a game that features two below average pass defenses, and I expect Burrow and his elite supporting cast to be efficient. Cincinnati really needs to come out and win this one.

Myles Gaskin Over 73.5 Total Yards

Book: Bet MGM (-115)

By Alex88:

“Among qualified RBs, Gaskin ranks 12th in target share, 12th in WOPR, and 22nd in RBOPR.”

“In the last two weeks, his 41 total touches ranks sixth.”

By Hilow:

“The Dolphins will be playing this game with a depleted pass-catching corps and a quarterback with a “banged up finger” on his throwing hand.”

“Myles Gaskin has emerged as the borderline workhorse running back on this offense in the absence of Malcolm Brown, who has already been ruled out for this weekend.”

“Over the last four weeks, his snap rates have been 63%, 58%, 72%, and 61%, leading to running back opportunity counts of 19, 16, 26, and 16.”

“Four to six targets with 14-16 rush attempts should be considered Gaskin’s standard range of outcomes as far as expected workload goes here.”

“Continuing that discussion here, the Jets can basically be beaten any which way this year, and the likeliest plan of attack for the Dolphins involves a heavy dose of their running back trio early.”

Reasy’s Reasoning

A  borderline workhorse running back, in a pace-up game, featuring two teams in the top ten in total plays combined, against a run defense that has given up the most points to running backs by a mile? Sign me up. Of course, Gaskin has been horribly inefficient over the last two games where he touched the ball 41 times, but as talked about above, volume is key on overs. Give yourself the most kicks at the can, especially versus a team that has given up the most explosive plays of 20+ yards, 52 of them through nine games. The New York Jets funnel a 26% target share to running backs, leading to over nine targets and seven and a half receptions to the position, for almost 190 total yards per game. While both teams pass at a high rate, I expect Miami to be able to play in a favorable game script and try to limit Tua Tagovailoa’s exposure as he continues to recover from a left finger injury (left-handed). Combined with an injury-riddled wide receiver room, a few more than usual dump offs to Gaskin in space may be dialed up against a team allowing almost nine and a half yards per reception to RBs.

Christian McCaffery Over 114.5 Total Yards

Book: DraftKings (-115), Bet MGM (-117)

By Mjohnson:

“Washington is likely overrated by most people after a surprising upset of the Bucs.”

“McCaffery handled 23 opportunities (13 carries and 10 targets) in Week 10 before sitting out the 4th quarter of a blowout, signaling that he is back and will see the elite usage that we expect.”

“Washington ranks 6th in rush defense DVOA, but just lost all-pro DE Chase Young for the season and has not faced anything close to the threats out of the backfield that the Panthers possess.”

Reasy’s Reasoning

Boxscore readers will see a 23 opportunity game and think that the Carolina Panthers are still easing Christian McCaffery in, but as Mjohnson outlined in The Edge this week, those 23 opportunities came in just three quarters. Due to the Washington Football Team’s big win last week, the devastating season-ending knee injury to all-pro DE Chase Young has not grabbed as many headlines as it should as he joins fellow DE Montez Sweat on the sidelines. Narrative street was alive and well last week, with Taylor Heincke dubbing his 2020 playoff appearance against TB as the reason he was still in the league before game time and his team responding to get a win for their young QB. This week, we have Superman Cam Newton making his first start of his second Carolina tour and I expect the Panthers to come out firing for their returning signal caller. Look for CMC to once again show us there is no one like him in the NFL and for his props to increase substantially in Week 12. While Cam may cap CMC’s touchdown upside, he should open up seams for him on the ground and will keep the Carolina offense on the field more efficiently than either Sam Darnold or P.J Walker.

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