Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

25-25. As in 25 wins and 25 losses that I have in my NFL pick ’em pool this season. I’ve participated in this medium-stakes pick’em pool for about ten years now. It’s grown in size, the payouts are enticing, and the premise is what keeps me coming back. It’s simple, pick any five NFL games against the spreads each week. That’s it. The lines lock on Wednesday evening, and you get until kickoff to make your picks.

As simple as it sounds, of my ten seasons participating, I don’t believe I’ve ever finished with a greater than 60% winning percentage. If memory serves, we had someone take down the pool one season around 68% correct (which is insane) but other than that outlier, if you can simply go 3-2 each week with a 4-1 or 5-0 week sprinkled in there, you are sitting pretty.

I don’t focus much on this pool, but of the time I do spend on it, it’s awfully depressing to think that it’s been an utter waste of my time this season. To go 25-25 in a pool like this requires little to no experience, luck, or anything of the sort. I’m fairly sure I have family members who have not watched a down of football and they could have posted the same record. Yet, despite my troubles so far this season, I am always changing the way I approach my selections.

Some weeks, I’ll pick the first five games. Others, I’ll only take favorites, then underdogs, then I’ll do the logical thing of following the line movement and grabbing the five most efficient lines with the best closing line value. All of that work, and yet my likely output is still between about 45% to 55% correct most years. 

I am sure many of you can relate to this, as picking NFL lines is an inefficient game. Those lines have so much action on them that even getting released on a Wednesday does not leave much room for an edge. It’s why picking teams with a spread is a fool’s game. Hence, why player props have seen such a rise, because there IS an edge to be had there, in wider markets, with less weight carried on each line.

So why do I tell you about how terrible I am at picking games this season? Because my repeated futile attempts can leave me feeling incapable. And approaching any week with this feeling will be like pushing a snowball down a hill; it will only grow and grow and grow. This is the same resistance and resilience we need to show in many aspects of life.

Confidence plays in any arena. Whether you’ve seen success this season, or find yourself going back to the proverbial drawing boards for Week 11, just know that your mindset can dictate your outcomes. Feeling confident that this week could be your week is always the way to go. 

I’ve often said, you won’t find anyone more confident in their lineups than me around 12:45pm EST before the games kick off on Sunday. I always think my lineups will crush. It can be to my detriment, as most weeks I will lose, but if we continue to work on separating ourselves from outcomes, we won’t have to worry much about past (or future) results. Does it matter that I likely could have picked 25 games right or wrong while blindfolded and throwing a dart at two targets on a wall? No, it doesn’t, because as far as I’m concerned I’ll go 10 out of my next 10. Because my prior results won’t creep into my approach in picking games, or building DFS lineups this week. 

Week 11 brings with it a whole new puzzle to solve. Find your edge this week, and go get it done.

Week 11 :: Angles

Without the presence of a game in Europe and another four teams on bye this week, we’re looking at an 11-game main slate on tap. At the risk of sounding repetitive, in what has become the norm this season, we have a whole slew of teams implied between 20 and 23 points, with a few teams ahead of the pack and a few others trailing behind. We’ll start at the top in just a second, but as you search for your edges this week, simply aligning your entries to teams expected to put up around three touchdowns is the sharp move.

We talk a lot at OWS about how to position your lineups so that when you win, you win big. In order to do that, you want to try your best to accept the right balance of logic and variance. As we’ve said, it doesn’t mean ignoring or taking the opposite approach than “the field”. But it does mean leaning into, slightly bending, and finding your edge within places that already have a somewhat logical path to upside. To put a cap on why this quick intro…you likely don’t want to stack any team implied for under 20 points this week (Patriots, Colts, Jags, Titans, Bears, Raiders. Note: stacking to me is at least three players from the same offense). 

We have a few game environments that could “pop” off the page, but anytime we have an offense implied for 30 or more points, it warrants our attention. That offense this week is the Detroit Lions (30.25). Detroit is hosting Jacksonville in a game with about a 14-point spread as Jared Goff will square up with Mac Jones. The two head coaches in this game couldn’t be on more different trajectories, while the two quarterbacks inspire little faith at the moment. The Lions won a resilient game against Houston on Sunday night, with Goff throwing five interceptions, but a win is a win in the NFL. As they stare a 30-point total in the face this week, it’s important to note that the public has little faith in Goff right now and Jacksonville does not have the pass rush that Houston has. It’s likely not if the Lions will score this week but how, and whether or not Jacksonville can keep up at all.

There are three game environments that will draw the most attention on this slate, and rightfully so. Two of these carry healthy 48-point totals, and the third is the third. First, we have the Seahawks (20.75) // 49ers (27.75), where Seattle comes off its bye and likely brings DK Metcalf back to its offense. San Francisco would have scored around this total last week if Jake Moody had a better field-goal percentage, but with Christian McCaffrey back in the fold, Jauan Jennings assuming the Brandon Aiyuk void, and Ricky Pearsall healthy and active, they’re full of weapons (though we’ll have to watch George Kittle’s status). I talked in this space last week about the run that SF went on post-bye in 2023, and they will look for their second consecutive win after their Week 9 bye here. If Metcalf can get back on the field, we have a more confident JSN after his breakout game, and a healthier Seattle offensive line if they can also welcome back RT Abe Lucas. The simple combination of talent and coaching gives this game one of the best opportunities to explode on the slate.

Ravens (25.5) // Steelers (22.5) come together for their first meeting this season, where fantasy players cannot wait to continue to roster players against this beatable Baltimore secondary. It’s true that Baltimore’s defense has been wrecked by receiver after receiver this season, and they’ve been tough to run on, but the Ja’Marr Chase game will still bring many more clicks to George Pickens this week than could be warranted. We like to make DFS a simple game, but it surely can’t be this simple. If Pickens can deliver a 150-yard, two-score game I’ll stand corrected, but keep an eye out on ownership before you decide to build around the Pittsburgh passing attack. The Ravens’ offense, however, will continue to hum and score points, though the Steelers’ defense presents an above-average difficulty level for them. This is not the Bengals’ defense, nor that of the Broncos, whom they have pasted at about 38 points per game the last weeks.

Burying perhaps the most compelling game on the slate here, and that’s the Chiefs (22) visiting the Bills (24). There isn’t too much to be said here as we’ve seen these two teams match up many times over the years to mixed results (including playoffs, it’s 4-3 KC). Two things jump out at me here immediately: KC with only a 22-point implied total says a lot about how Buffalo’s defense has come on in recent weeks. And second, how will the Chiefs manage to win by less than a field goal to stay undefeated?

Underappreciated, Overlooked?

In terms of implied team totals, the Dolphins and their 25.5 stand out as seven-point favorites at home against the Raiders. Is this finally the week to play Tyreek Hill? We heard about the wrist issue he’s had for the first time on Monday night, when he finally got back into the end zone for the first time since Week 1. Vegas has been good against wide receivers (third best in total receiving yards allowed) but they do lead the league in missed tackles. It goes without saying, but the Dolphins have a lot of dudes who fit the category of “hard to tackle due to speed.”

The Rams have a similar game in front of them, implied to put up 24 points against an uninspiring, but oddly comfortable-with-themselves New England Patriots team (19.5). Stafford should have a healthy Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams, and (price-agnostic), this trio alone should account for 70% or more of the Rams offensive production. We like condensity at OWS, and look no further than the Rams. Pricing won’t be our friend here, but despite a strong showing against the Bears last week, this is still a Patriots defense that ceded 73 points in two games just a few weeks back to the Texans and Jaguars.

The Browns (21.75) // Saints (22.75) and Falcons (20.5) // Broncos (23.25) matchups on paper look almost like mirror images. The expected game environments sit behind those ‘big three’, but the overall environments should depend on how Jameis Winston and Kirk Cousins perform early. If we get the gunslingers and a few interceptions on one side early, a blowout could occur. If we get some deep shots and long touchdowns, we’ll have a shootout on our hands. Both the Saints and the Broncos will likely be content in managing the game to simply finish with a win, so we get conservative coaches opposing risk-taking QBs. Let’s just say there could be a lot of different outcomes here.

Finally, yes, the Jets have a near 24-point total hosting Indianapolis, but please don’t forget they are still the Jets. Minnesota (23), with Sam Darnold doing his typical in-season fade, is traveling to Tennessee, who has been content playing slow-paced, low-scoring games lately. Not much excitement there. And that leaves the Packers (22.5) as the only team I’ve yet to mention, as they get the Bears in Chicago. We know how tough it is to predict which mouth Green Bay will feed on offense, but with OC Shane Waldron gone, could we see a spark in Chicago’s offense? It’s likely the Bears’ offensive performance will dictate what level this game goes to as well.

Thanks for coming with me on the ride of the Sunday games this week. As always, there are some obvious spots, some overlooked, and everything in between. We don’t know what scores will win GPPs this week, but we do have a good idea where points should come from. Play for the expected and the unexpected, and build your lineups like nobody’s watching.

We have so much in store for you on the site this weekend, so make sure to check the content channel in Discord, and as always, I’m looking forward to seeing your entries at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!

~Larejo

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

Check this out. On last week’s slate, a slate with borderline limitless uncertainty, we had NINE players projecting for more than 20% ownership. On this upcoming Week 11 slate, a slate with a median game total higher than last week, a slate where there are actually game environments that can put the slate out of reach, a slate in which there is more value available, we have only THREE players expected to garner 20% ownership or more. If this doesn’t prove that the field has yet to work out how to accurately diagnose a slate, I’m not sure what will. The edge lives on, friends. Without going into the complete theory behind this assertion (those who have been with us all year will recognize where this is coming from), the number of chalk pieces from the Week 10 and Week 11 slates should be flipped.

But here we are, the Week 11 main slate in the year of our Lord 2024 on our horizon. The state of this slate is highly likely to yield scores in the high 190s or low 200s, which gives us our starting point for the decision-making process we will use to formulate our game plan to attack the slate. We’re going to need some outlier-type production, and targeting the archetype of player (or team, or game environment, wink wink) that has that within their range of outcomes is going to be paramount. With that, let’s check out this slate, shall we?

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

ALVIN KAMARA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Kamara has been a PPR and volume machine in games without Kendre Miller this season, which is funny because former head coach Dennis Allen absolutely hated Miller. Either way, Kamara carries one of the highest weekly floors at the position. The main problem is that the Saints have really struggled to move the football with all the injuries this season, making it that much harder for Kamara to put the slate out of reach at his lofty price tag.

DE’VON ACHANE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. A case can be made that Achane is one of the most fundamentally underpriced players on this slate considering he has returned what amounts to WR10 production through the air in games with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa this season, plus the 10-12 carries we can expect on a weekly basis. It quickly becomes difficult to poke holes in Achane in a vacuum at his current salary.

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. CMC made his season debut in Week 10 and immediately stepped into a workhorse role for the 49ers, handling an 88% snap share, all but six running back snaps, and all but two running back opportunities. He. Is. Back. Side note – he was such an amazing leverage play last week at modest ownership – damn.

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Sunday Morning Update

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Jameis Winston
Christian McCaffrey
De’Von Achane
Cedric Tillman
Elijah Moore
Kayshon Boutte
Davis Allen
Rashod Bateman
Jets

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Bottom-Up Build Discord Channel >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Christian McCaffrey

In 16 games last year, CMC hit 28+ DK points in 37.5% of his games, while hitting 19.3+ in 81.3% of his games. To put that in context :: Alvin Kamara has hit 28+ in 20% of his games this year, and has hit 19.3+ in 40%. CMC is healthy and back in his normal role, which makes him one of the sharpest plays on the slate. Can he miss? Yes. But he’ll miss less often than any other player on the slate, his ceiling is as high as any player on the slate, and his floor when he “misses” is usually not all that low. CMC shapes up as a Blue Chip play for me this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Lightning”

Tyreek Hill + George Pickens

Story:

“Both guys hit”

Why It Works:

These are two of the highest-ceiling plays on this slate, and both are currently expected to be below 10% owned. This means that even fewer rosters will be playing these two together…which means that if this combo happens to hit for high-end outcomes from both players, you could be way ahead of the field. Said differently :: simply pairing two lower-owned players who each have potential to be genuinely “had to have it” pieces is a unique way to open pathways to a first-place finish, and this is one of those pairings.

How It Works:

The likeliest outcome, of course, is that we get something in the range of “both of these guys scoring 13+” and “both of these guys scoring 25+.” That lower end may not kill you, and that upper end will be really useful, but won’t win you a tourney on its own. There is, however, a “realistic outlier” scenario in which each of these guys goes for 35. Without this happening, this is just a random combo of two good, somewhat overlooked plays; but if each guy were to score 35+, you would be well on your way to a first-place finish. With that in mind, this doesn’t have to be “the only unique thing you do” on a roster; but it certainly can be.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Forked Lightning”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Puka

As explored in my DFS Interpretations this week :: the clearest path to a tourney-winning game from Puka is for the Patriots to keep this game competitive. This rule says, “On 100% of Puka rosters, include one to two of these Patriots.”

I will NOT have the Patriots set to allow two FLEX players (i.e., the only way I’ll play two Patriots skill position players on a roster together is if Drake Maye is included), so this rule allows me to have a Patriots one-off opposite Puka if I don’t have Maye, and allows me to have a Patriots double-stack where I do have Maye.

Puka 2

As we’ve explored in recent weeks :: when the Patriots are keeping games close, Rhamondre Stevenson is producing. In the game environment in which Puka is hitting, the Patriots are probably keeping things close; and as such, I want to prioritize Rhamondre on my Puka builds. This rule says, “On 70% of Puka rosters, include Rhamondre.”

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Josh Allen || Brock Purdy || Russell Wilson || Drake Maye || Jameis Winston

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback ::

• Brock Purdy – The 49ers moved the ball at will last week, punting only once against the Bucs. This week they have another solid matchup against a Seahawks team they dropped 36 points on just a few weeks ago.
• Tua Tagovailoa – The Dolphins are in a great spot this week against the Raiders and they’ve been playing great football lately against much better defenses. Tua is affordable and this is about the cheapest we’ve ever been able to stack him with his WRs and likely at low ownership.
• Russell Wilson – The Steelers are likely to struggle running the ball against this Ravens defense and Wilson has a clear alpha WR in George Pickens and three “cheap with upside” options to stack him with in Calvin Austin, Pat Freiermuth, and Mike Williams. Stacking passing games against the Ravens has been fruitful all season.
• Salary Savers: Jameis Winston, Anthony Richardson, Drake Maye

Running Back :: 

• Christian McCaffrey – The best in the business is back in his full role. 
• De’Von Achane – Achane has not reached the 100-yard bonus yet this season, but is averaging 24.2 Draftkings points per game in the 5 games that Tua Tagovailoa has started – which is higher than any RB in the league this season.
• Alvin Kamara – Kamara averages nearly 10 points per game from just receiving and is facing a Browns defense ranked 25th in DVOA against opposing RBs. The Saints have a Week 12 bye and Kamara will have plenty of time to rest after he gets a massive workload as the Saints try to save their season.
• David Montgomery // Jahmyr Gibbs – The Lions have the highest implied team total on the slate and want to run the ball at a high rate. Detroit should have their way with the Jaguars and we have yet to see the running backs dominate the scoring in a Detroit blowout this year. 
• James Cook – The matchup doesn’t look great on paper. Cook’s usage doesn’t look great compared to other RBs on paper. This game is huge for the Bills, however, and Cook is trusted and versatile while the Bills WR/TE situation is murky. It would not surprise me if Cook handles 15 to 18 rushes and is targeted 6 to 8 times.
• Salary Savers: Audric Estime, Tyjae Spears

Wide Receiver :: 

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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

GRIP IT AND RIP IT

There’s something magical about John Daly. A man who turned “Grip It and Rip It” into a lifestyle, showing up to the PGA Tour with a diet of spiked Arnold Palmers, Marlboro Reds, and the kind of goofy swagger that made him impossible not to root for. Daly didn’t care about playing it safe or laying up; he was there to take big swings, knowing that sometimes you hit it into the woods, but other times you land a 300-yard bomb right on the green.

In DFS, we’re channeling our inner Daly every time we roster low-owned players. It’s not about playing scared; it’s about embracing the chaos and trusting that when you connect, you’re giving yourself a shot at glory.

These are contrarian moves I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Sometimes we’ll miss, but the ones that do hit will help us lap the field.

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

George Pickens/Rashod Bateman

This game has one of those “anything can happen” vibes, and the field seems convinced that the Steelers defense will keep it under wraps. If it hits, it’ll probably come from a big early strike. Pickens’ pOWN will climb as we get closer to lock, but Bateman at 1% gives us that contrarian correlation with real upside. Sure, Bateman has a low floor, and that’s fine—because we don’t give two shits about floor in the Milly. He’s been getting deep shots from MVP Lamar Jackson and has the talent to hit, even in a tough matchup.

Calvin Ridley/T.J. Hockensen

Ridley has surpassed 4x his Week 11 salary in two of his last three games. I don’t care if it’s Levis or Beavis back there — I’m in on that at 7% pOWN. Tennessee’s defense isn’t exactly fantasy-friendly, but Hock has been showing signs of the guy who was priced around 6K a year ago. At $4,700 and 5% ownership, he’s a 3x stance in my less-than-humble opinion. A classic “if you ain’t early, you’re late” situation.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This week has a small top tier of only two games. BAL/PIT (48.5) and SEA/SF (48) have upper-echelon totals but both are division games with paths to the downside.
• The middle tier is robust with seven games. JAX/DET (47), KC/BUF (46), ATL/DEN (44.5), CLE/NO (44), LV/MIA (44), LAR/NE (43.5), and IND/NYJ (43.5). All seven have strong game environments in their range out of outcomes, but none of them are especially likely to explode.
• The bottom tier is small with only two games. GB/CHI (40.5) and MIN/TEN (39.5) round out the slate with two games that aren’t likely to produce a lot of points but can still offer interesting one-off opportunities.

Pawn – Steelers defense ($2,500)

It’s rare for Papy’s Pieces to include a defense and several positional salary savers were considered for this spot. Dawson Knox ($3,500), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,400), Audric Estime ($4,500), and Davis Allen ($2,500) were a few of the other candidates if looking for cheap positional player. Those guys are good options but the Steelers Defense is priced in a disrespectful manner. Yes, the Ravens offense has been the best in the league, but they’ve also put up a lot of that production against weak defenses. This won’t be the Bengals out there. The Steelers defense has the best pass rush in the league, they’ve given up the second fewest points and missed the second least tackles. They are loaded top to bottom with talent. This is a division rivalry game, at home, that will (along with their game in Baltimore) likely determine the outcome of the division. The Steelers defense has averaged 9.8 DK points per game which is the second highest on the slate behind the Vikings, and yet they’re priced like a punt. The Ravens offense has been good, but the Steelers defense has been just as good, and if you’re looking to save salary at negligible ownership, the Steelers are your defense.

Knight – WR Cedric Tillman ($5,300)

Why is Cedric Tillman so cheap? Since Jameis Winston took over he’s seen 12 // 9 // 11 targets. He’s turned those into DK scores of 18 // 29 // 19. He saw a $1,000 price bump this week but it still wasn’t enough. Tillman’s production over the last three weeks is reflective of a WR who should be priced $1,000 to $1,500 higher, and if he keeps playing this way, it won’t be long before his price reaches those levels. He has a good matchup against a NO team that looks like it has given up and just traded away its best player in the secondary. You can make a similar case for Jerry Jeudy ($5,400) and Elijah Moore ($4,300) but Tillman has the most upside of the group because he’s being treated as alpha WR by Winston. It’s tough to find reasons to fade Tillman after the past three weeks, and I’ll probably use at least one of the Browns WRs in a large majority of my lineups. They’re all unpriced, all have upside, and are all stackable with Winston. I’m going to have the Browns passing game pieces throughout my tighter builds this week.

Bishop – WR DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 11 Topics

1. Setting Expectations

2. Condensation

3. Familiar Foes

4. Value Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. Week 11: Setting Expectations

The Question ::

Last week, something that I believe all of us talked about at various points was how it felt like a week that would be relatively low-scoring, with tournament winning lineups landing in the 190 to 200 range. Turns out, we were too optimistic. The winning lineup in the Milly Maker put up 178.32 points, and across all the large field tournaments there were only a couple of lineups that cracked the 180-point mark. We’ve accurately identified those weeks sometimes in the past and we’ve also recognized some of the highest scoring slates of the season prior to kickoff. There is huge value in that, and frankly it is probably a good starting point for any week. If we have a good grasp of what type of scoring we are going to need in order to win, but our opponents may not, that can be a huge edge as we make choices about roster construction, how correlated we want to be, and which ways we try to get “unique.” As such, what are your thoughts about how this week sets up and what are your expectations for the winning scores?

The Answers ::

JM >>

Bigger scores in DFS are a function of a number of things. Are there a lot of players who score 30+ points? Are those 30-pointers (or high-end raw scores) popular or unpopular? Are there popular value plays that perform well? And of course, are there game environments that perform at a high level and leave other games in the dust?

I don’t see this as a slate where there are likely to be a ton of players who score 30+ points, but I do think there is potential for more high-end scores than we have seen in some past weeks. To be clear: this is not “a prediction that we will see more high-end scores than we’ve been seeing of late,” but it is an assessment that if we played out this slate a hundred times, we’d have more weeks with “several high-end scores” than recent weeks.

Furthermore, players with decent pathways to high-end scores include Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, Travis Kelce, Cedric Tillman, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, Deebo Samuel, Kenneth Walker, and others, all of whom are projected to garner 10% ownership or higher.

“Popular value plays” come with low floors this week, but unlike some weeks, the “popular value plays” do come with a ceiling.

As for game environments :: nothing really stands out on this slate; but would it surprise us if the Ravens and Steelers played to the upside? Would it surprise us if the Seahawks and 49ers played to the upside? There are other games that could also play to the upside; but these two games, in particular, stand out as spots where a back-and-forth game could develop.

Put it all together, and I think this week’s slate lands in the “broad range of outcomes” bucket. Last week, I was so convinced in the expected low-scoring nature of the slate that — for the first time in at least four or five years — I had multiple core rosters without a stack (i.e., rosters that effectively bet that there would be no stacks you “had to have”). This week, I’m back to a focus on double-stacks, as I think it’s likely we see a double-stack winning tourneys. Outside of this single component of roster construction, I don’t necessarily change a whole lot based on how I see scoring playing out (that is to say, I’m always targeting high-end scores on each spot on my roster); but I am at least shifting back to a stack-heavy approach, and I’ll be prepared for a higher-scoring weekend if that’s what comes our way.

Hilow >>

There are three primary points I’m looking at when analyzing the scoring likely to be required to win GPPs: (1) how much projectable value is present, (2) how many game environments are present that could blow up, and (3) what is the median game total. This slate has a far different feel than last week in that there are numerous players priced below where they should be given current role, range of outcomes, and upside, there are numerous game environments that could blow up, and the median game total is up. As such, we are likely to need 205-210 points to ship major GPPs this week, which fundamentally alters our approach – just as the question suggests.

Xandamere >>

This week looks fairly normal to me. Multiple games with totals in the mid to high 40s, and what looks like a couple of good value spots (remember high scores aren’t just due to lots of touchdowns being scored – it’s also due to players putting up lots of fantasy points and us being able to afford those players in our rosters). 

I’ll be honest, I think this is a good question, but I don’t tend to think about the week’s scoring environment all that much. Maybe that’s wrong, I don’t know…but at the end of the day our goal isn’t to score 180 points or 200 points or 220 points, it’s to score more points than all of our opponents. So, I’m just looking for the strongest individual plays and the best teams/games to attack. The only thing I really think is different on what looks to be a lower-scoring week vs. a higher-scoring week is that in the former there is some value in higher floor but lower ceiling options (think Adonai Mitchell last week – on a week that looked to be higher-scoring, a play like that would not be as strong as it was last week).

Mike >>

On Draftkings specifically, I feel like the highest scoring weeks (where GPP winning scores are 230 to 250) are ones in which things set up specific ways in around each of the positions::

1. Relatively “cheap” QB and pass catcher stacks with relatively high ceilings in great game environments or matchups.
2. Several strong RB options in the $5,500 to $6,500 salary range.
3. Explosive WRs on the slate who have the ability to post the monster 35 to 45 point games that truly separate.
4. Mispriced TEs at the low end of the pricing that can put up a 20-point game or multiple TEs in the mid-to-high salary range that can go for 25 to 30 points.

When you have all of those factors in play on the same slate, the pieces to the puzzle kind of fit perfectly. A couple of “cheaper” game stacks allow people to give themselves a strong base for their lineups without constricting the rest of their roster. Strong mid-range RB options allow people to get 40 to 50 points from their two RB spots and still have the salary to pay up for the explosive WRs. The tight end position is often the skeleton key to slates as well since a cheap TE hitting a big score opens things up for the rest of the roster. If you have only two of those situations, things become a little tighter and the winning scores seem to be in the low-200’s. If you have one, or none, of these situations then we end up with the ugly weeks like last week. Sometimes you can “flip” a couple of those situations and still end up with three or four salary situations that give a path to high scores. That usually happens when one game with more expensive players truly goes nuclear (think BAL/CIN games this year) and/or when you have a super-cheap player that goes for 30ish points (think Cedric Tillman and Mike Gesicki weeks).

As for this week, I would say that we are “checking” two of those four boxes. The RB salaries this week are all pretty high and the few cheaper options aren’t in great spots, which means there are unlikely to be mid-range RBs who match the top-tier RBs from a salary perspective which makes paying up at WR more difficult. Likewise, there are some solid TE options on the slate but it doesn’t feel like a couple of weeks this year where it felt like there were a bunch of guys who could smash their salaries. There are, however, some explosive WRs on the slate. As such, I’m expecting winning GPP scores to be in the 200 to 220 range.

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2. Condensation

The Question ::

There are three teams on this slate that really stand out to me in terms of having very condensed offenses and good spots to potentially have big games this week. Those spots are:

• Jets – Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Davante Adams have accounted for 67% of the offensive usage in the four games since Adams arrived from the Raiders. The Jets have averaged only 55 plays during that stretch, but this week they face a Colts team that allows a league leading 68 plays per game to their opponents, the Jets are playing at home, and have a 24 point implied team total.
• Rams – The Rams have played two full games since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned from injury (Nacua was ejected in the first quarter against the Seahawks). In those two games, Kupp, Nacua, and Kyren Williams have combined for 73% of the team’s offensive usage. This week the Rams have a 24 point team total and face a Patriots defense that is ranked 30th in the NFL in DVOA, whereas the last two games that this group played together were against Minnesota’s top-ranked defense and a Dolphins defense that has been rapidly improving recently. This profiles as a game where they could run a lot of plays, gain a lot of yards, and score 3 or 4 touchdowns very easily.
• Dolphins – Miami is not quite as condensed in terms of usage as the Jets and Rams, but they are a team that has two very clear top options in Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane which are where most of the production and explosive plays are likely to come from. As I explored in my NFL Edge breakdown of this game, their offense has been playing very well against some tough defenses and now gets a matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 29th against the run and has PFF’s 32nd graded coverage unit – not a good mix against all the speed the Dolphins bring. 

We have these three teams who all have great outlooks for this week where it is a strong bet that their offense performs well, and also a strong bet that we know where that production is going to come from. That is a powerful combination. As discussed, the Dolphins are less certain in terms of usage but are perhaps the best bet to put up 35+ points and they also probably have the best “values” of the bunch as Tyreek Hill is about $1k below where we’d expect if Miami was being viewed how they were to start the year and Jaylen Waddle/Jonnu Smith kind of combine for that “third leg” of the offense. Unpacking all of that, I have a two-part question for you:

1. Which individual player do you like the most this week from each of these three offenses?
2. Which offense, if any, are you most likely to play multiple players from in the same lineup without the quarterback?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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OUTLOOK

Coming off a main slate where 178 points shipped the milli maker, Week 11 offers us a unique opportunity with several strong on-paper game environments, but only three afternoon games. Pricing feels a bit softer this week coupled with ownership really congregating, we’ll discuss ways to leverage this information below. So let’s dive right in.

Important Early Outcomes To Watch:

Alvin Kamara – Current projections have Kamara as the highest-owned player on the slate, likely checking in at over 30% ownership for the second straight week. Kamara has seen an elite workload since the injuries to Olave and Shaheed, but the Browns haven’t allowed an RB to rush for 85 yards yet this season. No other Saint projects for over 5% ownership…  

De’Von Achane – Similar to Kamara, the field is expressing certainty that the Dolphins scoring is going to flow through Achane, and he is projecting for around 30% ownership, 2^nd highest on the slate just behind Kamara. Achane is fundamentally underpriced for his role in the Miami offense and with slightly looser pricing this week, playing two $7k+ options this week appears to be how the field is building. 

Lions – Detroit has a Vegas implied team total of 30.5 points, which is higher than any other team on the slate by more than a field goal. The Lions do tend to spread the ball around, but if the TDs flow through one or two of their primary players, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a Lion post a 25-30 point fantasy score, likely at moderate ownership. 

Slate Breakers – Such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 58.4 DK point performance last week.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 11 Overview

Back to another three-game slate, which as I discussed last week is far from my favorite. Once again, in large field tournaments, we need to find ways to differentiate our lineups to have any sort of win equity. The best ways that I have found to do this are:

1. Choosing a very low-owned play to start your lineup and then building backward from there. Xavier Worthy would be a good example this week. He’ll likely be under 5% owned and he’s almost unplayable on the main slate, but a 60-yard TD with his speed would change the entire slate.
2. Leaving salary on the table. There are too many options on a main slate to justify leaving $1,000 to $1,500 of salary on the table, as somewhere in your lineup you are very likely putting yourself at too big of a disadvantage to overcome. On the short slate, it’s much more viable. The best way I’ve found to get there is build a lineup using most or all of the salary and then look for the player you are least confident in and scroll down from him for a much cheaper player you feel has a similar outlook.
3. Full onslaught in one game – with up to four players (and maybe a defense as well) from one team and a couple from their opponent, or even 3 and 3. The SEA/SF game is a good example this week. It’s entirely feasible that Purdy, CMC, Kittle, SF D, and one of the SF WRs all end up as the top raw point scorer and/or points-per-dollar option at their respective positions if the 49ers score 5 touchdowns. It’s also very viable that the Seahawks offense could have a Geno double stack be optimal on a small slate or the super cheap AJ Barner scores a touchdown and one of Walker, JSN, or Metcalf goes for 30 points. Just a lot of options and most people will build lineups traditionally and try to cover their bases in each of the three games.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.

Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.

(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)

Bo Nix (DEN) OVER 29.5 Pass Attempts

Nix is 7-3 to the over on the season and playing a pace-up game against the Falcons at home. The Bronco’s pass rate over expectation has increased over the last month and they continue to play better in hurry-up situations. The Falcons have seen an average of 33.5 pass attempts per game this season, albeit with a 50 attempt game from Baker skewing the average some. We like this as a spot for Nix to keep the chains moving against a team willing to give up completions to avoid the big play.

The bet is good to: -120

Russell WIlson (PIT) OVER 29.5 Pass Attempts

Passers versus Baltimore. QBs have thrown 30+ attempts in 9/10 games this season, with the exception being opening night vs Mahomes. Baltimore D is seeing nearly 40 pass plays a game, while teams are running just north of 21 times per game against them. The Steelers have gotten more pass-happy and are playing at a higher situation neutral speed under Russ in one of/the best volume matchups.

The bet is good to: -120

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Since my calendar allows it, I’m getting back to my roots here in writing this piece a day earlier (during TNF) in the hopes I can keep things simple this week. Overthinking plagues us all. Sometimes it’s a simple fix, spending less time focused on a topic, or going with your instincts. But in a complex game like DFS, you can’t simplify everything. Especially if you are reading, watching, and listening to plenty of content each week. It’s hard enough to simplify your own thoughts, but then introducing voice after voice throughout the week can sometimes lead us into a tangled web. So, writing this piece one day earlier is going to help me simplify my thoughts and (hopefully) my words this week.

I haven’t anchored this article on the power of simplicity since Week 1 of the 2023 season, but since I did it then, I want to pull some of those words back in here. (It wasn’t my best intro, but it did make some sense…)

“Simplicity wins in all aspects of life. If you can describe a product or service in a simple way, people will buy it. If you can teach a concept in a simple way, people will apply it. If you can show a process in a simple way, people will follow it. When we feel like we understand something, we feel empowered to conquer it. Being simple is a winning strategy, even when all the variables and uncertainty around us are encouraging us to make it complicated.“

So how can we achieve simplicity this week? By giving what the slate is providing to us. By accepting the variability of the outcomes we will surely see on Sunday, and by embracing the fact that we can predict only the present with what we know. Here we go…

Jared Goff + Tyreek Hill + Amon-Ra St. Brown

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

The Bible often uses numbers to represent ideas. There is a reason why we talk about the Ten Commandments rather than the 613 full set of laws given to the Israelites by God through Moses. The number 10 is usually associated with completion. We have finished 10 weeks of the DFS season, and Week 11 is officially my, “Week to Review.” This was sparked by a conversation with one of the editors at OWS and my realization that I have produced some great content that continues to be relevant and needs to be accounted for because of how helpful it has been as we look back with hindsight’s pretty glasses. You can check out the full articles in the archives section.

Week 1 – Confirmation Bias

I cautioned DFS players coming into a new season, “Don’t overweight what you think you know.” People had put in a lot of research pre-season and could get caught up in looking for data/analysis that confirmed and supported the plays they had been looking forward to rostering all season. I encouraged readers to “look for other ways the game could play out” rather than indulge in that good feeling of having your thoughts/ideas confirmed by projections, analysts, etc. 

Week 2 – prevalence of recency bias

“If you find yourself utilizing the results from Week 1 as the main source of info driving lineup decisions for Week 2, you are doing it wrong. Week 1 is another data point of information in a long history of data about these players and teams.” I highlighted some way too early trends and told readers to keep an eye on what develops. Some things from Week 1 have definitely remained true – TB overstacks could win tourneys if they continued with their aggressive style, Joe Mixon got a significant workload, and Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts would cannibalize each other over TDs. Look for growing trends, but recognize that recency bias causes humans to have more confidence in recent results. Profitable players can leverage that recency bias to their advantage.

Week 3 – Patterned behavior

A DFS player’s journey through the week leading up to Sunday often exposes us to all the options, but your biases are likely going to kick in and make the same kind of decision you always make. “We like choices, but our mind sometimes wants those easy choices that will leave it feeling secure and happy (like my order from Jenni’s Ice Cream Shop, one scoop of salted peanut butter with chocolate flecks and one scoop of the darkest chocolate, yum!)”

You should have a process, but your lineup building process should be independent of your research process. Your research process should have a pattern, but building lineups with a patterned approach doesn’t respect the game of DFS. It might leave us secure and happy, but since every DFS week is a unique puzzle to solve, you will have to resort to lucking out, waiting till your patterns and the ideal way to build lineups coincide.

Week 4 – Developing trends

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Week 11

Angles – JM

Solo Ship – JM & Squirrel Patrol

Block Party – JM & Peter Overzet

Searching for Ceiling – Hilow & Rich Hribar

DFS LABS – DK – STATATL & Cheeseman

DFS Labs – DK – Papy & Cheeseman

DFS LABS – FD – Mike Johnson & Maximus

First Look – Statatl

DFS Labs DK – Hilow & Cheeseman