Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
Head coach Mike McCarthy has been vocal about expanding his role with the offense this season and new OC Brian Schottenheimer has a history of coaching teams that lean heavily on the running game. Schottenheimer was with the team last year, but now has the opportunity to make changes as he sees fit and has historically run very conservative leaning offenses.
Personnel Changes::
Schedule::
Bull Case::
The Cowboys averaged 30.2 points per game in 2022 in the 14 games (regular season and postseason) Dak Prescott started, which is more than any team in the NFL averaged for the season. This followed a 2021 season where the Cowboys led the NFL in scoring at 30.4 points per game. They should be more efficient with Tony Pollard as their feature back and Ezekiel Elliott out of the picture. Their weak point last season was their receiving corps behind Ceedee Lamb, but that should be much stronger this year with the addition of Brandin Cooks to the perimeter and with Michael Gallup set to start the season 21 months removed from his torn ACL suffered at the end of the 2021 season. Losing Dalton Schultz hurts, but the Cowboys have a couple of quality young tight end options that should be more than serviceable considering the other quality skill options in place. The Cowboys have enormous upside to continue as a top tier scoring offense with a franchise QB, two dynamic superstars (Lamb and Pollard), and a plethora of capable and/or explosive role players.
Bear Case::
Despite the success the Cowboys offense has had over the last two seasons, Mike McCarthy’s soundbites this offseason sound like a man who intends to break the golden rule of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Losing Dalton Schultz could be a bigger deal than most people realize, as Dak leaned on him heavily and they had incredible rapport. Michael Gallup didn’t look like the same player last year and Brandin Cooks turns 30 in September – a concerning number for a player of his stature that relies so heavily on his speed to be effective. Tony Pollard is coming off a breakout season and is one of the more explosive backs in the league, but he is also returning from a significant injury. Even if he comes back at full strength, we don’t know how well his body will hold up to a huge workload because he has never really been deployed in that way.
The Cowboys clearly have the components for another great offensive season, but they are also in a fragile position where things could take a hard turn for the worse if the coaching staff hamstrings the offense. Adding to that, Pollard’s ability to hold up in a full-time role and the questions around the secondary receiving options on this team means just one or two injuries would put them in a very tough position from a personnel standpoint. Said another way… Cooks, Gallup, and the tight ends are terrific options as complements to an offense built around Dak, Lamb, and Pollard – but if Lamb and/or Pollard were to miss time, those secondary players are not the types that are built to step into more dominant roles and maintain the offense’s efficiency. If everyone is healthy and the coaching staff plays to their strengths, this is a top notch unit. However, the dominos could fall quicker for the Cowboys than for most of the high end offenses in the league.
Expectations/Takeaways::
If the Cowboys (specifically McCarthy) are serious about changing the “identity” of their offense, that’s a very scary proposition. Saving face and job security are unfortunately a huge part of the world of NFL coaches and front offices, and it appears that McCarthy is trying to sell the Cowboys playoff failures the last two seasons as being caused by the fault of departed OC Kellen Moore for being too “pass heavy” on offense. Looking deeper, most football people can see that the offense is certainly not the problem for the Cowboys as they’ve scored at the highest rate in football when Dak Prescott is healthy over the last two seasons. The running game “failures” in the playoffs have had a lot to do with their opponents – their last two playoff exits both came against the 49ers, who have consistently been one of the top run defenses in the league.
Mike McCarthy’s offenses in his final years in Green Bay were methodical and predictable, lacking motion concepts or creativity and leading to a falling out for him with both management and star QB Aaron Rodgers. New OC Brian Schottenheimer has led primarily run-heavy offenses during his time as an offensive coordinator and has worked under very conservative head coaches during his three previous stints as an offensive coordinator (Eric Mangini, Rex Ryan, Jeff Fisher, and Pete Carroll). That duo should perk our ears to systemic risk of this offense being voluntarily neutralized from within. The NFL in 2023 is a passing league and the Cowboys are no longer built as a team that should be running the ball at a high rate based on their personnel. Forcing that issue as part of a bigger “statement” from McCarthy could result in a lot of low scoring grinders for Dallas. Ironically, building around their running game is also a bad idea for how their defense is built. They have a terrific pass rush and a ball hawking secondary that feasts on teams who are forced to become predictable when Dallas is able to build a lead as a high scoring team. A focus on the running game and dip in offensive efficiency will also neutralize many of those defensive strengths.
When discussing our expectations for the Cowboys this season, especially for Best Ball purposes, we must recognize the wide range of potential outcomes that are possible for this team and what that means for how we evaluate, rank, and fit these players into our rosters and overall portfolio. It seems pretty likely that McCarthy is enough of a donkey to mess up this elite offense, but a lot of our competition is hearing the same sound bites and going to draw that same conclusion. From a “barbell” perspective, the Cowboys offensive ceiling remains elite. Dallas seems like an ideal offense to stack and the players have good adp values for their ceilings, but individual pieces are overly fragile for their costs and the inherent risk. While “stacking” is a very common tactic across the community, how and when we use that tactic is a bit of an art form. Currently, Ceedee Lamb has an ADP that puts him around the 1/2 turn in drafts, while Tony Pollard is going in the early 3rd round. Given the systemic concerns outlined above, those are some pretty steep prices. However, if the Cowboys offense is able to continue to perform at an elite level then those two are potential bargains and “reaching” on one of them in order to pair them together would give you a unique construction and have highly correlated results. Said another way, if the Cowboys offense is once again elite it is extremely hard to paint a picture where *both* Pollard and Lamb are not top-5 at their positions. On the same line of thought, if McCarthy/Schottenheimer self-destruct this previously dominant offense, it is hard to see either player paying off their current draft costs (Lamb WR8, Pollard RB9). As such, my approach to the Dallas offense is “stack or stay away.”
August Update::
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
Personnel Changes::
Schedule::
Bull Case::
The Giants are just scratching the surface of what they can be with offensive mastermind Brian Daboll calling the shots. New York became increasingly pass heavy as the year went on and started to open things up and put the ball in the hands of Daniel Jones on a regular basis during the second half of the year. During Daboll’s tenure as the offensive coordinator of the Bills, his teams ran a lot of spread concepts and threw the ball at an extremely high rate. With another year of experience in the system for everyone, growing trust in Jones, and added weapons, this Giants offense could really hit its stride in 2023. Despite the “successful” season they just had, the Giants offense only scored more than 24 points twice all season, which shows how much room for growth they still have. They were pretty consistent throughout the year, but the lack of explosive scoring punch was very evident when watching them and even more so in looking back at their box scores in totality. Adding a dynamic player like Waller should open a lot of things up and Jones/Barkley have shown that together they can be the backbone of a quality offense.
Bear Case::
As exciting as last season was for Giants fans, things do feel a little fragile for 2023. This season there will be higher expectations and more pressure, with teams unlikely to overlook the Giants after they made the playoffs and won a playoff game last season. Their receiving corps still lacks a true “alpha” presence and as good as Daniel Jones was last year, there are still some flaws there and his overall body of work has not been great throughout his career – a “regression” would not be surprising at all. Saquon Barkley was terrific in 2022 but is another year older and coming off a season where he touched the ball 377 times – the likelihood of him staying healthy for another full season on that kind of workload is a definite concern. The “prize acquisition” for the Giants was Darren Waller, but he has also been plagued by injuries the last couple of years so it’s hard to get too excited about him as someone who can change the dynamics of the offense. Also, the Giants wide receiver room is filled with a lot of guys best suited for slot roles and that along with Waller’s acquisition would seem to be a bit redundant. With only a couple of true perimeter options, who are replacement level talents, the Giants offense could easily take a step back this year. The overachieving Giants of 2022 could quickly turn into one of the bigger disappointments of 2023.
Expectations/Takeaways::
The Giants are an interesting team who was exciting to watch as they grew into a capable unit in 2022 but now have to deal with higher expectations and a tougher schedule. Within their division, they have six games against very good to elite defenses in Washington, Dallas, and Philadelphia. They also have a much tougher draw in their inter-conference games as they will have four games against the AFC East, which is filled with good defenses, rather than their run against the downtrodden AFC South, who they went 4-0 against in 2022.
Overall, I expect the Giants to experience regression in 2023 and to have some struggles. They won ten games in 2022 (including the playoffs) and only one of those wins was by more than one possession. Additionally, the winning percentage of the teams the Giants beat in the regular season was a meager 39%. Meanwhile, four of their eight losses (including the playoffs) were by 14, 13, 26, and 31 points. This big picture breakdown of their 2022 season shows us a team that won close games against bad teams and got throttled by the high-end teams in the league – meaning they are likely much further away from being a contender than appearance in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last year would indicate. It would not take much for the Giants to fall back to a five or six win team this year given the lack of top end talent on their roster and the increased difficulty of their schedule. From a Best Ball perspective, this makes me very hesitant to invest in Jones and Barkley at their current costs. Jones is now being drafted in the 8th/9th round and is no longer the “running QB cheat code” bargain that he was in 2022. I have concerns about Barkley’s workload and schedule, concerns that make me value him below all of the other “top tier” RBs and also slightly favor a few of the RBs currently being drafted after him. Waller is interesting at his current ADP (8th to 10th rounds) as he has shown an elite ceiling in the past and if he can stay healthy, he could easily outperform his current cost. Finally, I think throwing some late darts at the WR position is where I will get most of my exposure to the Giants. All of them are relatively cheap and the uncertainty around roles keeps all of their prices suppressed but one or two of them will surely end up turning a profit. Additionally, the “concerns” about the offense and team as a whole should actually lead to more volume for the receivers (if they are losing games and/or playing from behind they should have to air it out a bit more, meaning that there should be some spiked weeks for us to mine for best ball and DFS production). That along with their low costs makes investing in NYG WR’s a solid risk-reward proposition.
August Update::
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
Despite the change at offensive coordinator, we should not expect much change from the Eagles offense especially coming off such a strong season. Nick Sirianni has an offensive background and has been very involved in the offense since coming to Philadelphia and they replaced Steichen internally, leading us to believe things should remain constant schematically.
Personnel Changes::
Schedule::
Bull Case::
The Eagles offense was magnificent in 2022 as they finished second in points and third in yards per game. The success of their offense had a lot to do with how many different ways they could beat you, as they have an elite dual threat QB, the #1 rushing offense by Football Outsiders DVOA metrics, and two true star wide receivers who can beat you in all areas of the field – not to mention a dynamic tight end in Dallas Goedert who can exploit mismatches if defenses forget about him. That balance along with their implementation of the “push play” on QB sneaks in short yardage made this offense extremely hard to stop down the stretch as they averaged 34.7 points per game in three playoff games.
The “bull case” for the Eagles is pretty straightforward – they were a dominant offense in 2022 and they brought pretty much everyone back. The one big “change” is at running back, where lead runner Miles Sanders is out and is replaced by the talented but oft-injured Rashaad Penny and the talented but inconsistent D’Andre Swift. The Eagles rotated three running backs last season, with Sanders working as the base/feature back, Kenneth Gainwell working primarily in passing situations and red zone packages, and Boston Scott being used sporadically in a “change of pace” role. The only offensive personnel changes are at running back, the most replaceable position and where they were already operating in a timeshare, and you can make a strong argument that they got significant upgrades from Sanders to Penny and Gainwell to Swift. This means that the offense should continue to operate at a very high level and on the chance that Jalen Hurts can continue to ascend this team could find itself in its own tier among the premier offenses in the league.
Bear Case::
You can make the argument for any NFL team that if the wrong couple of players get hurt, they will struggle. That is just the nature of the game. That being said, outside of injury the Eagles don’t seem to have any systemic reasons for concern and it is hard to paint a “bear case” around their offense from a fantasy standpoint. They have an offensive minded head coach and they call games aggressively and don’t take their foot off the gas when they have a lead. Their schedule gets tougher on paper this year, but games against the Chiefs, 49ers, Bills, and Dolphins also could provide some explosive scoring environments.
Expectations/Takeaways::
Barring major injuries, it is hard to see the Eagles not having a top-5 scoring offense once again in 2023. The Eagles offense – particularly their passing game – is going to be expensive in drafts this season, and for good reason. There is a great deal of certainty around the team’s scheme and player usage, which is accompanied by some very talented players. All of Hurts, Brown, Smith, and Goedert are good bets with a high likelihood of paying off the draft capital needed to select them and some additional upside that they could still realize.
The Eagles backfield is very interesting and likely will provide the best opportunity for “profit” in terms of production over expectation and closing line value (CLV). Penny and Swift will, rightfully, be the most expensive pieces with Swift landing in the 4th-5th round range and Penny in the 9-11 range. Meanwhile, Gainwell and Scott will likely be left until the end of drafts yet have the opportunity to have some major spike weeks as they are capable players in an elite offense playing behind a couple of talented but injury prone runners (Scott will likely be the direct backup to Penny’s role and Gainwell will likely backup Swift in the passing game).
All things considered, Eagles players from every position are more than viable options in Best Ball drafts as individual players or as a part of team stacks. Given the high floor and ceiling for this offense, it will be a priority for me to try to leave all of my drafts with at least one or two Eagles players – although admittedly it will be difficult and pricey to fully stack this offense.
August Update::
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
Personnel Changes::
Schedule::
Bull Case::
Eric Bienemy has been a part of some very successful offenses during his time as an NFL coach, but the presence of Andy Reid and his input on the offense in Kansas City has kept Bienemy from getting a head coaching job as most teams appear to believe Reid deserves most of the credit for the Chiefs offensive success. The failure of Matt Nagy as the Bears head coach after leaving Kansas City has also probably been held against Bienemy. Now in Washington, Bienemy will have the opportunity to show the league what he is capable of and if he can turn this offense into a more than serviceable unit he will almost certainly get that elusive head coaching offer next off-season. The bull case for the Commanders almost certainly centers on the idea that Bienemy can take his experiences with the Chiefs and utilize creative offensive concepts to take advantage of the strengths of his players, like his mentor (Reid) has always done.
The Commanders offense showed signs of life early in the 2022 season before stalling out and operating in a sluggish fashion for most of the year. However, Sam Howell provided a bit of a spark in his Week 18 start against a very good Dallas defense and now appears set to enter this year as the starter. Howell averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt in his one start while also adding five carries for 35 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Considering the solid receiving weapons at his disposal and his ability to make plays with his legs, there is potential for Howell to make an impact in 2023. The top three receivers for the Commanders complement each other’s strengths extremely well and are all capable of explosive plays. Meanwhile, Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson showed the ability to co-exist down the stretch in 2022 and with McKissic gone they finally started using Gibson as more of a receiver like he was used as in college. The pieces are all there for an offensive outburst this year if Howell can be functional on a consistent basis, and Bienemy’s past experiences suggest that he may be the perfect man to put the pieces together.
The final thing to consider as extremely positive for this offense’s outlook is the potential for different game flows than they had last year. The defense could take a step back as some key defensive pieces are gone and they lost a coveted defensive backs coach whose absence insiders suggest will be a big hit. Along with that, they face a lot of high octane offenses who could put up points and force Washington into “shootout” type situations.
Bear Case::
Almost everything from the “Bull Case” section can be viewed through a different lens and flipped to form a negative perception of Washington for this season::
Expectations/Takeaways::
There are a lot of questions here and there are a few factors that have a huge impact on how the Commanders will fare offensively. These things, particularly the uncertainty around their offensive coaching/scheme and their QB play, make them a team with an extremely wide range of outcomes. As such, my approach to the Washington offense in general will likely be to fade whatever the public’s perception seems to be. If they become a popular team among touts and pundits, which steams up the ADP’s of their players, then I am likely to avoid this situation as there is a high risk of this offense being very bad for much of the season. On the other hand, if these perceived risks keep the acquisition costs of these players low then I will be likely to lean into that and grab individual pieces that fall in drafts and/or loading up on the offense as a cheap “team stack.” As for the individual pieces, Antonio Gibson is highly intriguing to me as a post-hype sleeper who could be used in an efficient and explosive manner by Bienemy and Curtis Samuel has the skill set and usage/role to give you several good weeks in a best ball format where you don’t have to guess when they are coming. Both Gibson and Samuel will likely be available in the early to middle double digit rounds.
August Update::