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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.
Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.
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Justin Jefferson has gone over this mark in 5 straight games and 5 out of 7 times playing the Lions. He’s averaging 12 targets a game over the last 3 weeks and the Lions have faced the second-fewest rushing attempts over the previous 5 weeks. On average, the Lions have allowed north of 22 receptions a week over the last 5, and Jefferson has a 30% target share with a 76% catch rate during that time frame. I feel that this line is slightly below where it should be. 7.5 +100 to -110 is about right. Last week both Pearsall and Jennings went over this mark, and the week prior DJM and Keenan Allen did the same thing.
The bet is good to: -140
Jameson’s receptions o3.5 is strong but juiced to -165. Williams has 5 receptions in 5 of the last 6 games and Williams is averaging 73 receiving yards over the last 5 with a 17.5% target share, which has risen each of the last three weeks. He has averaged 16 yards per reception over the previous 5 games and over 18 yards per reception on the season. WRs that have hit over this mark include vs. the Vikings include: Romeo Doubs, DK Metcalf, Mooney & London, and MHJ. That’s just over the last 5 weeks. The Vikings give up nearly 120 yards per game on average to outside wide receivers.
The bet is good to: -140
