Prop bets are basically marketing tools for sportsbooks. They post thousands of prop lines across a given NFL week, and there’s just no possible way that they can all be efficiently priced. Props are also relatively small potatoes for sportsbooks, with limiting bet sizes of a few hundred or thousand dollars, versus taking six or seven figures (or more) worth of bets on the big markets of game lines and spreads. With thousands of props to choose from in a given week, there are some that end up being clearly mispriced, and we can take advantage of those.
What gives OWS an edge here? How does OWS evaluate what makes a bet a good one?
OWS has assembled a team of experts with lengthy track records of success. Prop betting is about combining quantitative analysis (projections) with qualitative analysis (how a team will choose to attack the opposing defense, how usage will emerge out of injury situations, etc.), and OWS’s analysts are fantastic at this. You see it play out in DFS analysis, and the same basic process applies to analyzing prop bets. Did I mention we’ve done this before?
How will OWS help me make money with props? Can OWS promise me this will be profitable?
OWS will deliver props throughout the week that we feel confident would be profitable if the games played out 100 times. We won’t win every bet, of course, but we feel highly confident that at the end of the season, we’ll turn a profit well in excess of the cost of subscription. In fact, we’re willing to bet on it (we’re degenerates over here, after all), and will offer a 30-day money back guarantee on our props package (NOTE: if you pick up the Props package before the season kicks off, you can request a refund // cancellation of your subscription up to a month into the season).
In addition, because OWS is all about teaching and training, when we share a prop we won’t just share the recommended bet. We’ll also share our reasoning of why we think this bet makes sense, to help subscribers learn how we analyze bets. Over time, you’ll learn to identify +EV bets on your own to supplement the bets OWS provides.
OWS will also track results transparently. You’ll see our full win/loss record and ROI each week.
How many prop bets will OWS release per week?
We can’t predict an exact number, because we’ll only recommend a bet when we feel that we have an edge. We’d prefer quality over quantity here. But, based on historical prop betting from the analyst team, it’s reasonable to think we’ll land on at least 15-20 bets per week during the regular season.
How will bets be communicated to me?
We will post bets in the OWS Discord. We’ll announce a bet is coming, and then a few minutes later, post the bet itself. Lines move quickly, and this method allows you to set up notifications on your smart device to ensure you see each bet as soon as it’s announced.
What if I can’t get the line that OWS bets the prop at?
Prop lines move fast as bets come in, and of course there are lots of sportsbooks out there, and some books offer different lines in different states. We can’t guarantee that you’ll be able to get the exact line that we place the bet at, but when we announce a bet, we’ll tell you the line that we think the bet is good up to. For example, if we think that the line of Derrick Henry under 108.5 rushing yards at -110 is a really sharp bet, our analysis might show that it’s a +EV bet up until -140, and we’ll tell you that so you know how to react to changing lines.
How do I know where to bet, where to get the best line?
If you live in a state with multiple sportsbooks available, placing your bets on the book that offers the most favorable line will have a material difference in your long-term ROI. We’ll call out the best option at the time we announce the bet, but if you don’t get the initial line, you should definitely look at lines across multiple books to see where the best one is. There are a plethora of sites on the Internet that look at lines across multiple books, so you can see the best options.
BONUS!!! :: Check to see if we are partnered with sports books in your state(!). If we are, you can earn 100 Edge Points for every partnered sports book you join. (Most of our Marketplace courses cost 75 or fewer Edge Points!)
I’ve heard sportsbooks limit winning customers. Does this cap my upside?
If you’re a consistently profitable bettor, sportsbooks will at some point impose betting limits on your account. There are ways to try and mitigate that (such as spreading bets across multiple books), but at the end of the day, the game is rigged to some extent; books won’t let you beat them forever, at least not for large bets. That said, Xandamere still made over $45k in profit on prop bets in the last NFL + NBA season, in a state with only one sportsbook (limits were eventually imposed, with his max allowable bet shrinking on the Oregon sportsbook as the season went on before Draftkings took over the Oregon betting market). $45k in a year seems like pretty reasonable upside! Plus, limits or not, the market is soft, and we should be making hay while the sun is shining. May as well get out as much as we can, right?
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