XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 8 kicks off with the Vikings, fresh off their first defeat of the season, visiting the Rams. This game has a 48-point total with Minnesota favored by 3, which at first glance seems dismissive of just how good the Vikings have been but there’s a narrative to consider here. Every team that played the Lions lost the following week (in some cases quite badly, such as the Seahawks losing at home to the lowly Giants). The story here is something like “the Lions are a super physical team, so their opponents are worn out/beat up and can’t play as well next week.” I’ll be honest, I don’t really buy that. It’s not as if we haven’t seen “physical” teams in the NFL before, so in order to believe this, you kind of have to believe that the Lions are the MOST physical team in the entire history of the league. I just have a hard time believing that personally. I think it’s likely just noise more than actionable data, but it’s worth mentioning as something to consider and decide if you want to play into this narrative.
Los Angeles
We’ll start with the Rams and their run game. There was some coachspeak prior to last Sunday’s game that they wanted to get Blake Corum involved more and have more of a split between him and Kyren Williams. Of course, like most coachspeak, that turned out to be BS as Kyren played 89% of the snaps and handled 21 running back opportunities while Corum handled 3 (and this was in a game that the Rams controlled throughout). Now, maybe with Cooper Kupp off the injury report and coming back from a multi-week ankle injury, they take the opportunity to give Kyren a bit of a rest? I suppose that’s possible but overall, I think Kyren has just been so good that as long as a game is in contention they have a hard time pulling him off the field. He’s the main key to this offense. He has a nightmare matchup against a Vikings team that is allowing just 80 rushing yards per game on 4 yards per carry (5th lowest in the league), but as long as the game is competitive, he’s going to be in there. What’s worth noting, though, is that Kyren has turned into a two-down back this year. Last year he averaged 4 targets per game – not exactly full-on three-down bell cow territory, but that’s a solid receiving role. This year, he has 15 targets in 6 games for 2.5 targets/game, and that’s with the Rams top two wide receivers having missed most of the season! He’s a capable receiver and the passing game role could spike back up, but what we’ve seen so far is that he’s heavily involved on the ground but not so much through the air. His production has also been propped up by a massive red zone role with 9 touchdowns on the year (and at least one in every game). He has 37 red zone opportunities (!). Every other Ram COMBINED has 28. I do think that with Kupp back he’ll eat into the red zone work at least a bit, but the overall story should remain the same: when the Rams get close, Kyren is the massive favorite to be the one to get into the end zone. His lack of receiving work this season makes him a little more sensitive to game script than we’d like, and his price is enormous. Personally, I’m a little iffy on him as he’s not a bad play, but there are just other options I would prefer to spend on at the high end. RB2 Blake Corum is barely seeing the field so he is something of a hope-and-prayer MME play (you either need Kyren to get hurt or a sudden change in role).
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, getting Cooper Kupp back is obviously a huge boost to a passing offense that has really struggled without their top two guys. It’s unclear how much Kupp will play as coach Sean McVay noted his workload is “to be determined,” but given a full practice and that the Rams took it pretty cautiously with him, my best guess is he returns to a full role. The Vikings, in part due to their elite offense blowing people out, and in part because of how good they are against the run, are facing the highest opposing passing play percentage in the NFL at 70%. There should be volume to go around for the Rams pass catchers. If Kupp plays a full role he looks like an absolute smash in a game where we can reasonably project Matt Stafford to throw 36 or so times as a floor with upside well beyond that. I’m hoping that his first game back will keep ownership a bit away from him. After Kupp, things get confusing. Jordan Whittington was playing a huge role in Weeks 4 and 5 but then apparently picked up an injury and wasn’t able to play in Week 7, but the Rams didn’t have enough space to make him inactive so they left him active and he just didn’t play (while being major DFS chalk!). Whoops. He’s also Kupp’s direct backup, so I doubt he plays much at all now that Kupp is back. That still leaves us with three wide receivers for two more spots. DeMarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Johnson played full-time roles last week. My best guess here is that it’s Johnson who goes back to the bench, as he’s played the fewest snaps of the trio on the season and is the best fit for the slot role that Kupp primarily runs. If I’m wrong, then it’s Atwell. Robinson’s role should be safe no matter what. Speaking of my DFS nemesis, Robinson was playing a significant role for the Rams last season but this year he’s looked more like his Chiefs days – on the field a ton but barely seeing any volume with just 26 targets on the season (and remember, all of the Rams target data has to be taken with the context that their two primary wideouts have missed most of the season, so for the guy with the starting WR3 job at the beginning of the year to have only seen 26 targets in six games is . . . real bad). He’s just $3k so he makes for a reasonable value option and if we think we’re getting elevated passing volume there’s more to go around, so he’s a decent floor, questionable ceiling play. Atwell being just $4,200 sure looks like a nice value as he’s played 70% or more of the snaps for four games and has seen 5, 6, 10, and 9 targets in that game, good for a 20/284/0 line. Without scoring a touchdown he’s put up at least 11.1 DK points in each of the last four weeks, which you’d be quite happy with at $4,200. He’s my favorite value play in the game. Johnson is harder to play and would just be an MME punt option for me.
At tight end, Colby Parkinson saw his snaps decrease last week for a season-low 64% which is not bad, but I just have a hard time seeing him finding a ceiling. He’s been chalky on main slates for a while now despite only having put up double-digit DK points once this season and that took 13 targets. He doesn’t have a lot of per-target yardage upside. However, he is leading the team in red zone targets with 6, and while Kupp will pass him soon, he’ll be involved there. He’s basically a guy who almost certainly needs a touchdown to pay off but has at least a somewhat decent chance of getting one. I prefer the kickers in this price range but will have some. TE2 Hunter Long has 3 targets on the season, and then Davis Allen saw the field for a season high 22% of the snaps last week. I’d guess he’ll usurp Long in snap counts but we’re talking a 5th round rookie tight end who averaged under two catches per game in college, so he’s just another MME punt option.
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