Kickoff Sunday, Sep 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
16.25) at

Texans (
23.25)

Over/Under 39.5

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Notes

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY PAPY324>>
  • Brian Callahan might not make it past the Titans bye week if things don’t improve.
  • Cam Ward has looked out of sync with Calvin Ridley. 
  • Tony Pollard is getting nearly all the backfield work, but his usage hasn’t led to fantasy production.
  • The Titans’ defense hasn’t been able to stop anything, but they’ve been especially bad against the run. 
  • The Texans are 0-3, but they lost three close games that could’ve gone their way, with their defense allowing the fifth-fewest points in the league.
  • The Texans’ O-line has held the bottom ranking from PFF since Week 1 with no hope of improving in sight. 
  • Woody Marks played almost half the snaps last week and looks like the Texans’ most explosive RB. 
  • Nico Collins always has slate-breaking upside, but the Texans’ passing game has looked dysfunctional most of the time this season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 0-3 Titans come into Week 4 as one of the most disappointing teams of the year. Callahan was supposed to be an offensive whiz when the Titans hired him out of Cincinnati. Instead, he looks like yet another coach who was nothing more than a product of having a good QB. Callahan’s seat is blazing hot and there is a good chance he won’t finish the year as the Titans coach. The Titans are 10th in pass rate, but that’s misleading because they’re always losing. They’re 25th in pass rate over expectation (PROE), which shows that they’d rather not pass if given the choice.  Despite being 0-3, and losing two of those games by multiple scores, Ward only has pass-attempt totals of 28 // 33 // 38 through three games.

It’s hard to blame Callahan for being conservative when his offense has been dysfunctional. Ridley has looked out of sync with Ward, turning 21 targets into a pathetic eight catches for 111 scoreless yards. Elic Ayomanor looked better than Ridley, but he has only 107 yards, with the main difference being his two scores. Pollard is playing nearly every snap, but like the rest of the offense, he has been ineffective. The Titans have been playing quickly (14th in seconds per play), but that’s misleading because they’re always in negative game scripts. Their situational-neutral pace numbers suggest a team that wants to play at a slower pace. The Titans don’t seem to trust Ward, but Callahan might as well take the training wheels off and hope he can save his job. 

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The Texans have been vulnerable against the run (25th in DVOA) and tougher against the pass (17th in DVOA). The Texans’ defense is tied for third in points allowed, but they’ve given up the 16th-most yards per game. The Texans have played bend but don’t break against the dangerous offenses of the Rams, Bucs, and Jags. The Titans don’t stack up with those offenses based on personnel or scheme and there isn’t an obvious way they can win against a good Texans defense playing at home. It doesn’t help that their O-line has been poor (25th ranked by PFF). The left side of their line is strong behind solid play from LT Dan Moore and LG Peter Skoronski. The right side is a disaster. The Titans rotated two players at RT (if you have two RTs, you have no RTs) and both players earned PFF grades below 60.  Expect Callahan to try and hide his QB for as long as things stay close, with some willingness to take the kids gloves off Ward if things start to get out of hand. 

HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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