Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- QB C.J. Stroud appears set to return from a three-game absence due to a concussion following two full sessions to start the week.
- QB Daniel Jones is reportedly dealing with a “fracture in his fibula,” which does not seem pleasant. He is expected to try to play through the ailment but looked noticeably slowed and uncomfortable in videos from practice Thursday. Sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard is currently the backup, with Anthony Richardson still on injured reserve.
- This game has the feel of one in which the Colts are forced out of structure, considering the injury to Jones and the matchup against the Texans. Should that happen, we might see something we haven’t seen in many games this season: the Colts failing to control the game environment.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::
The Texans surprisingly rank ninth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and fifth in total pass volume (35.6 attempts per game), which I suppose makes more sense considering the team’s general inability to run the football efficiently behind one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the league. They are also getting Stroud back after he missed the previous three games, all three ending in Houston wins with Davis Mills under center, including a statement win over the Bills their last time out. After starting the season with 28 or fewer pass attempts in four of his first five starts, Stroud attempted 49 and 39 passes in the two games prior to injury, with Mills then attempting 41 passes or more in two of three starts. Expect a pass-neutral offensive approach likely influenced by the Colts’ ability to find offensive success early.
Rookie Woody Marks has taken over complete control of the Houston backfield in the team’s most recent three-game stretch, handling 17, 19, and 17 opportunities on at least 66% of the team’s offensive snaps. Fullback Jakob Johnson was reintroduced to the lineup in Week 11 after missing six games, while the team has yet to play a game with both Harrison Bryant and Cade Stover healthy. That has left the offense rooted in 11-personnel for much of the season. Nick Chubb, now in the change-of-pace role, has seen opportunity counts of six, five, and seven in his previous three contests. The Colts have held opponents to just 4.0 yards per carry on the season while forcing the eight-highest PROE, although the combination of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier rushed for 141 yards while Kareem Hunt cleared 100 yards for the only time all season against the Colts in the past two weeks. There might be something here for Marks if the game environment cooperates.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The Texans have played their previous four games with a full complement of healthy pass catchers, with all of Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, and Xavier Hutchinson on the field. During that stretch, only Collins (84.5%) and Schultz (75.3%) have been in a route on more than 53.4% (Kirk) of the team’s dropbacks, with Higgins (51.1%) and Hutchinson (51.1%) more involved than Noel (26.4%). That’s an interesting setup considering the Colts have seen a jump in man-coverage rates following the addition of Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline, now playing primarily from Cover-3 and Cover-1. That has led to the fourth-highest rate of single-high coverage over their previous three games (64.7%). Only Collins (2.71) has a yards per route run (YPRR) mark higher than 1.61 (Higgins) against single-high this season, with Kirk second on the team in fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) (0.41) behind Collins. Consider the matchup more of a “Collins or bust” setup, and he’ll be forced to contend with likely shadow coverage from Gardner for almost 40% of his routes.
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