Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The turnover battle is likely to be one of the deciding factors in this game as the Jaguars rank first in takeaways (14) and turnover differential (+8) while the Seahawks rank 28th in giveaways (eight).
- Both defenses rank in the middle of the pack in total offense allowed per game (SEA: 322.8, 16th; JAX: 348.2, 23rd) while allowing 21.0 points per game or fewer (SEA: 21.0, tied for 11th; JAX: 20.0, eighth).
- The Jaguars are going to have their hands full with this Seattle defense, a unit that clamps down on the areas of the field the Jaguars find success while struggling in coverage of the areas of the field the Jaguars have struggled to attack.
- Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell was moved to the Browns in exchange for CB Greg Newsome on Wednesday. That’s interesting to me because Campbell was one of the weak links on the back end for the Jaguars after allowing the second-most receiving yards in primary coverage through five games.
- The Jags rank seventh in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 12th in plays per game (62.3) while the Seahawks rank 30th in PROE and 27th in plays per game (57.2).
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::
The Seahawks have been a methodical offense that builds their passing game behind an established run game. Their passing offense flows primarily through budding star Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who ranks behind only Puka Nacua in yards and targets per route run (TPRR) while pacing the league in team air-yards share and yards per route run (YPRR). JSN significantly lags the top-tier wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) due to modest team pass volume (31st-ranked 27.4 pass attempts per game), but his underlying metrics are about as elite as they come. With that, we’ve also seen how explosive this offense can be when forced into “oh shit” mode, as they were against the Buccaneers a week ago. But that isn’t how they want to approach winning games, instead preferring to dominate the time-of-possession battle while controlling the pace and flow. The biggest thing that has derailed those plans this season, leading to a 3-2 record, has been turnovers, now ranking 28th in giveaways with eight through five games. Ball security could become an issue against a Jacksonville defense that leads the league in both takeaways and turnover differential.
The Seattle backfield remains a near-even split in snaps between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, when both are healthy. Walker has played 134 offensive snaps while Charbonnet has played 131 this season (while missing one game). Charbonnet continues to operate in a split role on early downs while also being the preferred back in passing situations and the preferred option in the green zone, aspects of the split that have sapped the upside from Walker this season (Charbonnet has an 83.3% opportunity share inside the five this season, when healthy). Walker has been the much more efficient back, rushing to a robust 4.85 yards per carry to the modest 2.75 mark of Charbonnet. Walker also ranks near the top of the league in missed tackles forced per carry (0.24) while Charbonnet ranks near the bottom of the league (0.08). Even so, the Seahawks seem intent on keep Charbonnet involved, and he has now out-snapped Walker in three of four healthy games. The modest red-zone role for Walker has left him with a weak 11.1 XFP/G (Charbonnet checks in right behind him at 10.0). This is another one of those backfield situations where we would be jumping out of our seats to play “Seattle backfield” if it were focused on one player, but are left largely avoiding the situation when both backs are healthy (the combined 21.1 XFP/G of the top two options would rank third in the league behind only Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor). The pure rushing matchup against the Jaguars should be viewed as a positive one considering they have allowed 4.6 yards per carry (22nd) behind 2.18 yards allowed before contact per attempt (25th).
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
JSN started the season seeing snap rates of 77%, 65%, and 49% in the team’s first three contests before understandably seeing his biggest output of the season in Week 5, when his snap rate jumped to 90% (season-high 30.2 DK points against the Buccaneers). He has seen nine or more targets in three of five games so far but also has games of six and five targets, which came in two games the Seahawks were not pushed (wins over the Cardinals and Saints). His typical target counts are likely to fall in the 7-9 range, requiring the right game environment to spike beyond that range. Tight end AJ Barner and veteran wide receiver Cooper Kupp actually lead the team in snap rate, while 12-personnel rates limit the involvement of rookie field-stretcher Tory Horton. The Seahawks have played from 12 at one of the highest rates in the league (smidge over 60%). Barner and Kupp are also the only two pass catchers other than JSN to be in a route on more than 60% of the team’s dropbacks, but are averaging 5.6 (Kupp) and 3.0 (Barner) targets per game. This is just not a heavy-volume pass offense and JSN dominates looks.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.