Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RB Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle) was ruled out Friday while Devin Neal upgraded to a full session. It should be Neal’s backfield this week.
- WR Chris Olave went limited-DNP-limited before drawing a questionable tag for Week 13.
- TE Darren Waller got in a week of limited sessions and is listed as questionable – keep an eye on the team’s transactions Saturday to gauge his availability this weekend. Head coach Mike McDaniel said earlier this week that the veteran tight end has a chance to play against the Saints.
- The Dolphins have allowed the highest opposing completion rate (72.87%) despite facing the sixth-fewest pass attempts per game (28.8).
- Neal, and the Saints, for that matter, is no world-beater, but he appears to be in a solid spot on paper against the Dolphins and comes with a depressed salary of only $5,000 on DK.
- I’m not sure if it’s due to game environments, opponents, or what, but the Saints have filtered only 46 targets to opposing backfields this season, tied with the Broncos for fewest in the league. It might have something to do with them facing the third-most rush attempts (284) though.
- Here’s a fun one: The Dolphins are averaging the fewest plays per game this season at just 55.7.
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How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
Shough has made three starts for the Saints this season, all three of which were in wildly different game environments. The team managed only 41 offensive plays run from scrimmage against the Rams in a blowout loss in Week 9, ran 68 offensive plays in a 17-7 win over the Panthers in Week 10, and ran 80 offensive plays in a 24-10 loss to the Falcons in Week 12 after their bye. Their pace-up nature has endured through the change at quarterback, while it brought an emphasis on 12-personnel. After Taysom Hill was utilized primarily as a runner alongside Spencer Rattler, the change at quarterback also brought him under center at a higher rate, with the veteran fantasy troll not really seeing usage as a pass catcher just yet due to his injury. That has led to 21 combined carries over the previous three games. In total, the Saints are firmly entrenched in “future evaluation” mode after trading away Rashid Shaheed at the deadline and swapping to Shough under center.
Hill is going to see carries here, but this backfield should be largely left to Neal in the absence of Kamara. Most notable is the fact that over 82% of Neal’s carries this season have come behind zone concepts, where he is averaging a solid 4.36 yards per carry and a robust 71.4% success rate (small sample alert, he only has 17 carries this season). That said, I was pleased with his tape coming out of college this offseason, labeling him as a decisive runner with in-close burst and solid pass-catching chops. And while the Dolphins have improved against the run as the season has progressed, they continue to allow increased production to zone-heavy teams. They have allowed 4.91 yards per carry to opposing runs behind zone concepts this season and just gave up 5.3 yards per carry to Chris Rodriguez, 4.1 YPC to James Cook, and 6.3 YPC to Derrick Henry their last three times out. Finally, the Dolphins have faced the third-highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) this season as teams have found consistent success against them on the ground.
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The team’s overall pass rates have understandably dipped significantly with the move to Shough, now averaging a middling 57.3% pass rate over their previous three games. That said, they have remained balanced through the change, with 49 of Shough’s 94 pass attempts coming in the first half versus 45 after the break. The team continues to utilize downfield passing as well, with Shough’s 14.3% deep-throw rate and 8.9-yard aDOT ranking near the top of the league (compared to the 8.1-yard aDOT and 12.1% deep-throw rate of Rattler). That has actually ballooned Olave’s aDOT up to 14.6 with Shough under center, while still averaging 8.0 targets per game. We’ll have to wait and see how Olave’s back reacts to the week of practice after he went limited-DNP-limited this week, but I currently expect him to play. That obviously shakes things up quite a bit if he is ultimately unable to go. The pass-catching corps is rounded out by tight end Juwan Johnson (74.3% route participation with Shough), Devaughn Vele (75.2%), with Mason Tipton and Foster Moreau the primary rotational pieces. Veteran WR Brandin Cooks, who had run a 64.9% route participation with Shough, negotiated a release from the Saints and has now signed on with the Bills. The worst opposing completion rate allowed (72.87%) has left the Dolphins allowing the sixth-most yards per pass attempt despite facing the fifth-fewest pass attempts per game (28.8), making this a good spot on paper for Olave, if active. Finally, it is at least worth mention and consideration that Shough has thrown for more yards in two of his three starts than Rattler did at any point through eight starts, while completing 69.8% or more of his passes in those two games.
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