Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The Ravens try to bounce back from their second primetime meltdown in three weeks by traveling to face a Chiefs team that has had their number in recent seasons.
- Ravens running back Derrick Henry has three fumbles on 43 touches this season after fumbling only three times on 386 touches in 2024.
- Tight end Mark Andrews broke out of his slump on Monday night with a massive two touchdown game after having only two receptions entering the game.
- Kansas City looks like they will get wide receiver Xavier Worthy back from injury this week, although how effective he will be and how many snaps he can handle are yet to be determined.
- The Ravens have struggled in run defense in 2025, but the Chiefs may be the team least equipped in the NFL to take advantage.
How baltimore Will Try To Win ::
The Chiefs have ranked top-5 in the NFL in blitz rate in each of the last three seasons and are once again 5th in that metric through three weeks this year. After struggling against the blitz early in his career, Lamar Jackson has become elite in his performance when facing extra pressure. He has shown dramatic improvement in efficiency, completion percentage, and success rate against blitzing defenses, particularly last year. He now consistently beats blitzes with his arm, finding open receivers and taking what the defense gives him, rather than relying solely on his legs to escape pressure. His ability to diagnose and attack blitzes has made him a more complete and dominant quarterback. Lamar ran for 122 yards the last time these teams met, in the season opener of the 2024 season.
When Lamar does throw the ball, his primary targets are likely to be wide receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, along with tight end Mark Andrews, who had a bounce-back game in Week 3 against the Lions. Detroit’s defense keyed on Flowers, limiting him to only three targets, which allowed Andrews and Rashod Bateman to get things going. Each of Andrews and Bateman was targeted seven times on Monday night and combined for three touchdowns. The Ravens involve several other players, but those three are going to be the focal points of the passing game on a weekly basis, and it will be their opponent’s personnel and coverages that will dictate who the majority of that usage flows through.
Kansas City’s run defense is still good, but it is not what it once was. Their schedule so far has included the Chargers, who lead the league in pass rate over expectation, and the Giants, whose offense was a complete mess under Russell Wilson. In the middle, they faced an Eagles team that handicapped themselves with conservative and vanilla play calling. This is to say that the raw numbers indicate their run defense is still very good, but the underlying context suggests they could be ripe for the taking. This is relevant for the Ravens as they look to get Derrick Henry going. So far this season, the Ravens have faced the Browns and Lions, who are first and fourth, respectively, in run defense DVOA, and the Bills, who rank 29th in that same metric. Henry destroyed the Bills while being shut down almost entirely by the elite units he has faced. On Monday night against the Lions, Henry had 36 yards and a touchdown on three carries on the game’s opening drive and then had nine carries for 14 yards over the rest of the game. This should be a bounce back spot for Henry, although Kansas City is still likely strong enough to keep it from being a blow-up game.
The Ravens are ninth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), throwing at basically the exact rate we would expect for their game scripts. This has been a change from last year, when they ranked 29th in the same metric. As they enter this game at 1-2 and finally get the relief of not facing an elite run defense, we should expect a renewed emphasis on the running game and a higher run rate. Jackson’s success running in this matchup last year will also likely not be forgotten by either team, with Baltimore likely to scheme up ways for him to use his legs and Kansas City to be focused on bottling him up. Jackson has 13 carries in the two Ravens losses this year, and only two rushes in their victory over Cleveland. Heading on the road to face the Chiefs in Arrowhead, I would not be surprised to see Lamar reach double digit carries for the first time this season. Henry and Jackson will be the focal point of Baltimore’s game plan, with Lamar ready to make the Chiefs pay through the air if they stack the box and/or get too aggressive with their blitzes.
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