Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WR Tutu Atwell was removed from the injury report Friday and will play in earnest for the first time since Week 5 (he played just 10 offensive snaps in Week 7).
- The Panthers will be without their center and right guard, in addition to CB Jaycee Horn.
- One of the most interesting aspects of this game is the personnel tendencies of the Rams, who largely ditched their 13-personnel-heavy ways last week in the absence of Tyler Higbee.
- Puka Nacua against Cover-3 this season: 0.47 targets per route run (TPRR), 4.59 yards per route run (YPRR), 45.6% first-read target rate, and 0.94 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR). The Panthers deploy the third-highest rate of Cover-3 in the league.
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How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::
Sean McVay continues to prove why he is one of the most dynamic offensive minds in the league. A ton has already been said about his shift to a higher emphasis on 13-personnel this season, forcing opposing defenses into more favorable personnel groupings to take advantage of. Last week without Higbee in the lineup, those tendencies largely dried up, with the team instead more heavily focused on 11-personnel. Higbee is on injured reserve and Atwell is coming back this week, leading me to believe we see heavy rates of 11-personnel against the Panthers. That’s important, as Nacua had largely remained off the field when the team went heavy, with Davante Adams typically utilized in those situations. It might seem negligible, but Nacua’s route participation went up over 6% in Week 12, as compared to the previous month of play.
The emergence of Blake Corum has held Kyren Williams to a 69% snap rate in each of the previous five games. In that five-game sample since Week 7, Kyren had more than 14 carries only once – his 25-carry, 114-yard game in a blowout win over the Saints. That also serves as the only game all season in which Kyren went for more than 100 yards. Furthermore, his normally strong pass-game involvement has largely dried up this season, with only one game of more than four targets all season. And then there are the elevated red-zone pass rates from a team that has the frontrunner for the MVP under center in Matthew Stafford, and a matchup against a Panthers defense that is allowing almost a full yard fewer per carry in 2025 compared to a season ago (4.3). It certainly doesn’t look to be an amazing spot for the veteran lead back on paper, outside of his fluky multi-touchdown upside.
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PFP the OWS pennant
Here are Nacua’s advanced metrics against Cover-3 this season: 0.47 TPRR, 4.59 YPRR, 45.6% first-read target rate, and 0.94 FP/RR. The Panthers rank third in the league in Cover-3 utilization at a robust 39.8% while playing from zone at the second-highest rate in the league (80.2%). Against broad zone coverage, Nacua has amassed a 0.38 TPRR, 3.59 YPRR, and 0.70 FP/RR. He has been nothing short of remarkable in all major splits the Panthers utilize defensively, making this one of the best on-paper spots on the slate. In a vacuum, Nacua is my top pay-up option on the slate. The icing on the cake is that his red-zone role improves drastically when opposing defenses remain in zone, with his five red-zone targets in that split actually leading the team, which is bonkers considering the red-zone role that Davante Adams has commanded for the Rams this season. His 0.58 expected fantasy points per route run (XFP/RR) against zone in the red zone also leads the team. Because I expect the Rams to increase their emphasis on 11-personnel given the personnel available to them this week, we’re liable to see a hit in route partipation for Davis Allen and Terrance Ferguson, with Colby Parkinson the most well-rounded tight end on the roster.
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