The list of notable stat lines allowed by the Jets this season tells much of the story we need to know about the matchup that the Raiders will be facing ::
105-1 (28) Zeke
5-72-2 Preston Williams
We’ll start in the Raiders’ backfield, where Josh Jacobs has become a bit of a DFS darling this season (typically, DFS darlings emerge from a monster game that a lot of people benefitted from at a low price — think DJ Moore last year — which attaches both fond memories and a DFS confidence boost to that player across a broad range of the DFS community and keeps that player’s price higher than it really needs to be for a long time to come; but Jacobs seems to have drawn the love of the DFS community more for his fairly consistent production the last couple months when consistent production has been difficult to come by this year), and where this Darling status could lead to higher-than-it-should-be ownership against a Jets run defense that a large chunk of the field apparently still believes to be attackable because it’s the Jets. This run defense, of course, ranks second in DVOA and has allowed the fourth fewest RB rushing yards in the league, at only 3.01 yards per carry. The only somewhat notable stat line came when Zeke required 28 carries to reach 105 yards (with a case to be made for Sony Michel’s 42-yard, three-touchdown game to count for this list as well — though given how variance-driven touchdown opportunities are, I tend to leave “touchdown-only” games off my notable stat lines list), and this should be considered a significantly below-average spot for Jacobs. The work will almost certainly still be there, but he’ll need some things to really click for the production to match the price.
Oakland has played only one game this year that presented a similar setup (strong run D; bad pass D; fairly neutral game script), in Week 8 vs Houston (10th in DVOA against the run; 25th against the pass). In that spot, Jacobs saw only 15 carries in a 24-27 loss (his fewest carries in his last seven games — in a game the Raiders led 21-13 heading into the fourth quarter), but the Raiders’ pass play rate of 56.6% was only marginally higher than their season-long rate of 53.7%. A one-game sample wouldn’t tell us a whole lot regardless, but the biggest takeaway is what we would expect: the Raiders are still likely to emphasize the run regardless of matchup — requiring Carr to put in efficient work in order to produce. (He’s topped 32 pass attempts only two times this year.)
The Jets pass defense has not been as bad on a per-pass basis as their reputation, with a number 21 DVOA ranking against the pass, and with better-than-league-average marks in all of aDOT, catch rate, and YAC/r allowed. But the Jets have still allowed the third most touchdowns to wideouts in the league, and they have allowed five different wideouts to post a season-best DFS score against them (which was six wideouts until JB finally bested his Week 1 mark vs the Jets in his game against the Dolphins). The Jets are also elite against tight ends, with no team in football facing fewer targets to the position the last two years (a credit to the coverage of Jamal Adams). This creates an interesting spot in that the matchup tilts toward the pass, and the pass tilts toward the wideouts. Tyrell Williams has recent target counts of 6 // 4 // 5 // 4; Hunter Renfrow has recent target counts of 4 // 7 // 5 // 6; Zay Jones has recent target counts of 2 // 4 // 3 // 3. It’s difficult to see any of these guys busting out for a massive spike from here. But it won’t be surprising if one of these guys lands a strong price-considered score.
In spite of what the Raiders did to Ryan Finley last week, this is still a nice matchup for the Jets passing attack, as the Raiders rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass and 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt, with the 11th most yards and the ninth most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. Seven different pass catchers have topped 100 yards in this matchup, while another two have gone for 80+ yards and a touchdown. As long as Good Sam Darnold shows up — and especially if the Raiders are able to take advantage of this matchup on the other side — the Jets will be in position for another solid showing.
The Jets have been led by Jamison Crowder lately (recent target counts of 5 // 9 // 6 // 8), followed by Demaryius Thomas (5 // 3 // 9 // 5), Ryan Griffin (4 // 8 // 1 // 5), and Robby Anderson (6 // 4 // 3 // 3). Crowder has seen a price-spike due to a recent touchdown binge, making him a bit overpriced for his likeliest range, while Demaryius (as noted weekly) has a strong price-considered floor but needs a touchdown for ceiling, as he doesn’t have much burst left to his game. This leaves only the ever-unreliable Robby and the “What is happening?” Griffin (re: Griffin — the volume does not match the production, but the production seems to keep coming if you want to chase), so it’s not as if this offense would provide some lock-and-load piece even if it were more consistent; but some production is likely to emerge here, and while a true shootout is highly unlikely, this could easily turn into one of the higher-scoring games on this particular slate.
Finally, we have the Jets backfield, where Le’Veon Bell (3.2 yards per carry; no games above 70 rushing yards; only three games above 34 receiving yards) will continue to handle 20+ touches per game. The usage is there for Bell, but the Jets have eight pass attempts inside the 10 (for reference: Tom Brady leads the NFL with 32), and Bell has seven carries inside the 10 (Dalvin Cook has 29). This offense just hasn’t been able to get into scoring range often enough to produce useful stat lines at Le’Veon’s price. That price is finally dropping, but he has still produced zero DraftKings scores and one FanDuel score that you would truly like to see at his Week 12 price to feel it could move you toward first place in a tourney.
JM’s Interpretation ::
This is not the best and brightest the slate has to offer, but there are pass game pieces to consider on either side, with pretty solid floor in several spots, and with potential for one or two plays to hit for ceiling. Renfrow and Crowder provide the best combination of floor and potential ceiling, but there are ways to get a bit more aggressive from there.
I’ll likely leave the backfields alone myself, but I do like this game for a few game stacks, as the slate is ugly enough that this could turn into one of the more useful spots to choose from.