Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- The Raiders fired their offensive coordinator this week after another embarrassing outing where they were unable to move the ball.
- The Chargers should be fresh for this game as they are coming off their Week 12 bye, but the last time we saw them play they looked horrible in a 35-6 loss to Jacksonville.
- Las Vegas is allowing Geno Smith to get hit and take sacks at an astronomical rate in recent weeks.
- Los Angeles rookie running back Omarion Hampton will miss another game, leaving Kimani Vidal in a feature back role in a good matchup.
- The Chargers offense has struggled recently in large part due to their offensive line injuries, but gets a reprieve against a Raiders defense that lacks pressure.
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How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
The Raiders offense has been a mess this season and there is no way to sugarcoat it. They rank last in rushing offense DVOA and second to last in passing offense DVOA, struggling to move the ball consistently or find explosive plays. They took a somewhat expected step this week in ending offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s return to the NFL rather abruptly, firing him early in the week and leaving his duties to Greg Olson, who ironically has held the same position for the Raiders two other times before, in 2013-2014 and 2018-2021. The issues Las Vegas is facing are systemic and unlikely to change in just a week, if at all, but given the level of ineptitude it isn’t all that surprising.
Entering Week 13, the Raiders clearly have three legitimate offensive weapons. They are rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, second year TE Brock Bowers, and speedy WR Tre Tucker. We should expect the team’s usage to funnel primarily through those three players, with a renewed emphasis on the running game under Olson’s play calling. This matchup actually sets up fairly well for this, as the Chargers have had massive struggles in run defense and operating as one of the bigger “run funnels” in the NFL. Los Angeles ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA, but 26th in run defense DVOA. Simply “running it more” is unlikely to fix things immediately for the Raiders, as their biggest issue is their league worst offensive line that ranks 32nd in the NFL in adjusted-line-yards per rush attempt. The matchup is positive, but Jeanty has averaged under four yards per carry in all but two games this season and hasn’t gone over that mark since Week 5.
The run game struggles have led to Las Vegas having the 5th highest pass rate over expectation in the last month, but that hasn’t fixed things. The Chargers defensive scheme plays primarily zone coverage shells and blitzes at a very low rate, ranking 30th in the league in blitz rate. The Chargers have allowed the fewest pass plays of 20+ yards this season and are very effective at limiting explosive plays, which actually should suit the Raiders pretty well, considering their offensive line struggles. In addition to the poor run blocking, the Raiders rank 30th in PFF pass blocking grade and have allowed Geno Smith to be sacked on an astounding 15% of his drop-backs in the last three weeks. When there is a coaching change, you can expect some level of philosophical approach, and the obvious one here is a more run-based attack with their usage focused on Jeanty and Bowers, with some quick-hitters to get the ball to the speedy Tucker, also likely in this spot.
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