Kickoff Sunday, Oct 30th 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
21.5) at

Jets (
18.5)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
10th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
21st DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
3rd DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
25th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Jets Run D
9th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
21st DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
6th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
25th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The best DFS plays from this game are probably the defenses.
  • Michael Carter is unlikely to handle a workhorse role even in his first game without Breece Hall.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson dominated snaps last week, but that doesn’t mean he necessarily will this week.
  • This is a poor overall game environment for DFS.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The 3-4 Patriots come into Week 8 in sole possession of last place in the AFC East, fresh off getting stomped by the previously unable to score Bears on Monday night. After two decades of dominance, the Pats watched the Bills take over the division, and this year they have slipped behind both the Jets and Dolphins. As someone who has spent most of his life assuming the Patriots would get a first-round playoff bye, it’s hard to remove the “idea” of the Patriots from the current team, but that is what must be done to accurately assess them. The past three seasons have shown that the Patriots on-field success, while contributed to by Bill Belichick, was not because of Bill Belichick, as quarterback performance simply impacts the outcome more than anything a coach can do from the sidelines. As Willie McGinest recently said in a documentary about the Patriots, “We weren’t winning because Troy Brown was playing nickel cornerback.” 

Belichick has always been adaptable on offense, which last week meant changing QBs after Mac Jones looked bad, at home, against a Bears team the Patriots were expected to beat. Although Belichick was non-committal about who is going to start this week after the game, Mac Jones has received 90% of the first-team reps and appears likely to start against the Jets. Matt Patricia, Joe Judge, and presumably Belichick himself, have been running the offense. The Pats have played slow (31st in total pace), want to play slow (27th in situational neutral pace), and stay slow in all situations, playing the fastest when ahead (21st in pace when leading). None of Patricia, Belichick, or Judge are great offensive minds and this team is suffering greatly from the loss of Josh McDaniels. While some of their woes can be chalked up to losing Mac Jones the past month, their offense hasn’t looked explosive at any point during the season and is likely to maintain their “run the damn ball” mentality. 

The Jets defense has really come on, holding the Steelers/Dolphins/Packers/Broncos all to 20 points or less. While that isn’t a list of offensive juggernauts, neither are the Patriots. The Jets rank well against the pass (10th in DVOA) and above average against the run (14th in DVOA). The Patriots tend to adapt to their opponents, but when there is no obvious area to attack, they’ll default to what they do best which is running the ball. The Patriots O-line has been excellent (3rd ranked by PFF) to start the season, with right tackle being the only real weak spot. Marcus Cannon replaced Isaiah Wynn, but Cannon allowed three pressures against a bad Bears pass rush on Monday night. The Jets prefer to play cover-3 and get pressure with their front four, which they’ve been excellent at this season, ranking sixth in pressure rate and 31st in blitz rate. The Patriots would be wise to try and “run them out of it” and force the Jets to abandon their shell zone coverages. That strategy fits perfectly with how the Pats want to play and they are likely to attack on the ground unless forced to the air by the scoreboard. 

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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