Game Overview ::
By papy >>
- WR Xavier Legette, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, WR Tetairoa McMillan, OLB Patrick Jones, DT Tershawn Wharton, and OLB D.J. Wonnum all missed practice early in the week.
- The Patriots are relatively healthy, with only G Jared Wilson and LB K’Lavon Chaisson missing practice on Wednesday.
- The Panthers defense played their best game in two years last week.
- After being historically bad against the run last year, the Panthers look only regularly bad against the run this season.
- Tet McMillan missed practice on Wednesday, which will be a key injury to monitor this week.
- The Panthers O-line lost two starters before Week 3. Then they played their best game of the season
- The Patriots have been a pass funnel, and the Panthers have shown a willingness to elevate their pass rate.
- TreVeyon Henderson played 85% of the snaps after the Patriots lead backs fumbled multiple times.
- Drake Maye is good at football, but his receiving weapons leave a lot to be desired.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How carolina Will Try To Win ::
The 1-2 Panthers weren’t who we thought they were. After looking like fools for the first two weeks and losing multiple starters on their O-line, the Panthers were priced as nearly a touchdown underdog at home. Naturally, they delivered a 30-0 beatdown versus a Falcons team that just looked impressive against the Vikings. What changed? Game script. The Panthers ranked 3rd in pass rate coming into the game, but their situational neutral numbers indicated they didn’t want to be a pass-first team. In a game where their defense dominated, Bryce Young threw the ball only 24 times. It’s hard to point to anything special the Panthers did differently in Week 3. Young only passed for 121 yards, Chuba Hubbard led the way on the ground with just 73 rushing yards, and Tetairoa McMillan was the leading receiver with a meager 48 yards. It’s hard to take anything away from a game where the Panthers had to do almost nothing on offense to win. The only real takeaway is that in games they control, we aren’t going to see the pass-happy Panthers we saw in the first two weeks of the season. The same correlation held true for their pace of play. They were 5th in seconds per play entering Week 3, but bottom 10 in situational neutral pace. With last week’s game on the stat sheet, they fell all the way to 16th in seconds per play. The Panthers want to play slowly, but are willing to speed up when losing, which is a trend that is likely to be sticky this season.
The Patriots have been tough against the run (12th in DVOA) and killed through the air (29th in DVOA). While bad, the DVOA rank doesn’t even tell the whole story. The bottom five (DAL/MIA/NYJ/NE/NO) in DVOA are significantly worse than the rest of the league. The Patriots profile as an early-season pass funnel. The Panthers have thrown a lot (8th in pass rate), but that’s because of game script. They want to be balanced (13th in PROE), which creates an interesting question of how they will play against a pass funnel defense. The Panthers have a weak (21st-ranked by PFF) O-line. They moved down one spot in the rankings, but PFF notes that despite losing two starters, their line performed excellently in Week 3. They surrendered only five pressures, and Cade Mays (backup center) had the 6th-best protection numbers among all centers. There is a chance the Panthers backups are better than expected. It’s likely that Dave Canales will lean into the pass more than usual, but he probably won’t totally abandon the run unless the Patriots take a lead. Expect the Panthers to come out balanced, but to find success passing, which is likely to lead to more passing.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.