Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- This is a huge NFC North divisional matchup and a rematch from Week 1 when the Packers dominated Detroit.
- The Packers hope to get star RB Josh Jacobs and WR Jayden Reed back from injury this week.
- Detroit’s offense is centered around their running game and will be very condensed without TE Sam LaPorta and possibly WR Kalif Raymond.
- These teams share multiple common opponents from the last three weeks and had similar outcomes in their matchups against the Eagles and Giants.
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How green bay Will Try To Win ::
The Packers are coming off a couple of strange weeks as they faced the Giants in heavy winds that caused New York to run the ball at a very high rate and play extremely conservatively then faced a Vikings offense that was a train wreck and posed almost no threat for the entirety of the game. Green Bay’s approach and philosophy under Matt LaFleur, when allowed to, has been to control games and methodically pick apart their opponents. The Giants game was too close for comfort, but last week’s game against Minnesota was basically exactly how the Packers look to take care of their business. Their defense dominated and their offense was able to pound the ball on the ground, milk the clock, and pick and choose their spots to pass the ball. Green Bay ranks 29th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation over the last month as they have dealt with injuries in their receiving corps. The short week on the road against a formidable Detroit offense is unlikely to allow the Packers to play things so close to the vest, and their receiving corps could be getting a shot in the arm at just the right time.
Green Bay wisely chose to rest star RB Josh Jacobs in last week’s win over Minnesota, giving his bruised knee extra time to heal. It is expected that Jacobs will be active for this huge divisional game and he will have 10 days to rest before Green Bay faces the Bears. Emanuel Wilson filled in admirably and handled a massive workload with 30 touches against the Vikings, although efficiency was not great and his longest carry was only 12 yards. He was able to consistently move the offense in small chunks and did his job. It seems unlikely that Wilson would be up to the task of another massive workload on a short week, so if Jacobs were to miss this game again, we could see Chris Brooks play a slightly larger role, considering they will likely have more passing situations and won’t just be grinding the clock. If Jacobs does play, we should expect Wilson to stay involved as the team clearly trusts him. Wilson would seem to fit perfectly to take a good portion of the “empty carries” on early downs in the middle part of the field, simply soaking up volume, while Jacobs stays fresh for the high leverage spots and still ends up in the 16 to 22 touch range. The Packers tight ends without Tucker Kraft have been used sparingly and Jordan Love is not a quarterback who is running often or on designed plays, so this leaves almost all of the offense’s usage split between the backs and receivers.
As for the receivers, Christian Watson is back to full strength which has left him and Romeo Doubs as the clear top-2 wide receivers for the Packers. Rookie Matthew Golden sat out last week’s game, but may return this week. Explosive slot receiver Jayden Reed started practicing last week and has a chance to play in this one. Dontayvion Wicks had a solid game in Week 12 and was second on the team in targets, but is nursing a calf injury and playing on a short week. Green Bay is no stranger to rotating players at the wide receiver position and all of those players will mix in if available, while Doubs and Watson are likely to play over 70% of the snaps. This week they face a Lions defense that plays some of the highest rates of man coverage in the league and just got torched by Jameis Winston. Detroit’s defense is also historically very strong against the run and holds opponents to only 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Packers have some offensive line injuries and have disappointed a bit running the ball this season, averaging only 4.0 yards per carry. The Packers are unlikely to be able to run at the astronomical rate they have been recently, although they will still likely stay very balanced. The Packers don’t want to get into a shootout here, but will look to pick their spots and control the game from the outset while leaning on their elite defense.
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