Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- This game carries the lowest combined pace of play of the week.
- WR Brian Thomas Jr. has not played since Week 9 while dealing with a high-ankle sprain. Rookie WR Travis Hunter is done of the season due to an LCL tear.
- WR Calvin Ridley is done for the season due to a broken fibula.
- WR Elic Ayomanor returned to practice on Wednesday and appears set to return from a one-game absence.
- The Titans have been competitive in three games this season – the first coming against the pre-Brissett Cardinals, who blew a 21-3 lead, the second coming against the Chargers in which they scored two D/ST touchdowns, and the third coming against the Seahawks in which they tacked on another special-teams score.
- The Jaguars average the third-most plays per game (65.5) while the Titans are sitting in 27th (58.3).
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
The trio of Travis Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten, and LeQuint Allen has combined to average 29.25 rush attempts per game since the team’s Week 8 bye. Compare that to the 27.25 pass attempts per game that Trevor Lawrence is averaging during that same timeframe and we start to get a clearer picture of how this team is trying to win games at present. And it hasn’t even been that they’ve completely dominated game environments during their last four games, with a 30-29 win over the Raiders, a 29-36 loss to the Texans, a 35-6 win over the Chargers, and a 27-24 win over the Cardinals making up their four games since their bye. Like we have seen for other offenses with new offensive coordinators or head coaches, the Jaguars also seem to be able to keep opposing defenses on their heels of late, with play-calling tendencies the biggest contributor to the newfound successes.
Etienne continues to serve as the lead back for the Jaguars, but this backfield remains a frustrating three-man timeshare. Etienne understandably saw his lowest snap rate in their bye in the blowout win over the Chargers, but he handled 58%, 56%, and 65% snap rates in the three other games. A range of 16-18 carries and a handful of targets remains his likeliest range of outcomes, although of the three backs, he presents the clearest path for volume to concentrate. The price is a bit out of hand considering the bulk of his range of outcomes, with a tag of $6,500 leaving little room for him to project well on a point-per-dollar basis, regardless of the matchup. Speaking of the matchup, the Titans have allowed 4.8 yards per carry, while getting torched for 5.43 yards per carry and a robust 52.2% success rate against man/gap concepts. That’s an interesting setup considering Etienne has actually been far more efficient behind zone concepts this season (5.60 YPC vs. 4.18 YPC) while seeing a near-even split in carries behind each (83 to 80), making me far less excited to click his name this week. For comparison sake, part of the reason I was so high on Kenneth Walker last week were his splits behind man/gap concepts vs. zone, which seem to be flipped for Etienne.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
We’re still waiting on the return of Thomas to the Jacksonville lineup, who has missed the previous three games with an ankle injury. He was limited in practice Wednesday. It was interesting to me that the addition of Jakobi Meyers made the largest dent in the involvement of Dyami Brown, who played just four offensive snaps a week ago as Meyers’ shot up to 84% in his third game with the team. Tight end Brenton Strange immediately stepped back into the featured pass-caching tight end role last week after missing the previous five games. I would think we see something like a 65-85% snap rate from BTJ if he returns, with Meyers, Parker Washington, and Strange in the near every-down roles at pass catcher. Of note, the Jaguars ran their highest rate of 12-personnel of the season in Week 12, but I see that as more driven by the available bodies than anything else. The Titans rank 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3) while allowing the second highest completion rate (69.9%), making this a solid spot on paper, albeit one that comes with the obvious caveat that the Jaguars are no longer comfortable placing games in the hands of Trevor Lawrence.
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