Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Jacksonville’s offense continues to struggle to acclimate to new head coach Liam Coen’s offense.
- San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to return from his two game absence, while wide receiver Jauan Jennings is in danger of missing another game.
- The 49ers defense will be tested in their first game without all-pro defensive end Nick Bosa, who tore his ACL in last week’s win over the Cardinals.
- The Jacksonville pass defense has been terrific this season, ranking near the top of the league in several key metrics.
- Jaguars star second year wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has had massive struggles, with questions around his effort and drop issues causing him to be among the more disappointing skill players in the league thus far.
How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
The Jaguars seemingly have all the parts to have a very good offense, with three top-10 NFL Draft picks in their passing game and a highly respected offensive minded head coach. The Jaguars’ motion rate in 2025 has significantly increased under new head coach Liam Coen. While their exact motion rate fluctuates from week to week, early data shows a major philosophical shift from the previous season. However, this young team has been struggling to adjust to these conceptual changes after running a relatively static offense in 2024 under former head coach Doug Pederson. At first glance, the Jaguars offense looks solid in many statistical categories, including ranking 13th in yards per play, but their very soft opening two weeks in terms of opponents (Carolina and Cincinnati) is helping to mask underlying issues.
The major issues for this team relative to expectations entering the season are in their passing game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a former number one overall pick who was expected to take a step forward under the new coaching staff. Lawrence has struggled with accuracy and controlling the line of scrimmage to the level needed in a more complex system. Star wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who was the league’s top wide receiver over the last month of 2024 with Mac Jones as his quarterback, has had issues with drops, effort, and catch rate. Through three games, Thomas has only seven receptions, while there have also been seven passes that you could fairly classify as drops where he could have made a play, but did not. There have also been several instances on film where his effort has been in major question as he appears to cut routes off short and/or he simply doesn’t try to make a play on a ball or shies away from contact. It is one thing for your star player to not perform quite at their usual elite level, but another thing entirely for that player to be downright bad. Thomas has qualified as the latter. It was revealed a couple of weeks ago that Thomas is playing with a wrist injury and we aren’t quite sure when he sustained it, which would be one potential explanation. The accuracy issues for Lawrence also haven’t helped, and frankly, some of those passes it is hard to blame Thomas for not running into harm’s way when Lawrence leaves him high and dry. Regardless of why, these are things that must be cleaned up for Jacksonville’s offense to get going.
The rest of Jacksonville’s personnel will be interesting for this week. Dynamic rookie Travis Hunter Jr.’s role has been hard to understand, as his offensive snap rate and role has declined each week so far, and his defensive performance has been underwhelming. The idea of getting a player who is elite on both sides of the ball has had the early returns of “trying to do too much and doing none of it well”. The Jaguars backfield is used heavily with Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten playing well through three weeks. Both have been running the ball well and look the part, while each had a receiving touchdown in Week 2, and we know Coen likes to utilize his RBs in that way. Finally, the bright spots in the passing game have mostly come from wide receivers Dyami Brown and Parker Washington, as well as tight end Brenton Strange. Strange has led Jacksonville in receiving in two out of three weeks so far, while Washington has led in the other. Washington was also targeted 11 times in Week 3 while playing 71% of the snaps, with Brown leaving with a shoulder injury.
Jacksonville ranks fourth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation and Lawrence has a league average average intended air yards per pass attempt. They have been playing at a fast tempo and keeping things moving, so overall, the structure of this offense and talent should give them reason for optimism. However, penalties have held them back as they are fourth in the NFL in penalty yards through three weeks. They may be able to clean some things up this week against a 49ers defense that just lost one of their best players (Nick Bosa) and ranks 28th in the NFL in blitz rate. That low blitz rate should force/allow Lawrence to involve his running backs in the passing game at a high rate, as he did against the Bengals low blitz rate in Week 2. The 49ers have a good secondary and play a conservative style of defense with shell coverages and a low blitz rate. This is likely to keep the Jaguars playing a similar style to what we have seen so far, with a quick pace in terms of snaps, but a “death by a thousand paper cuts” approach focused on spreading the ball around in the short areas of the field. Lawrence should have time to throw, but this seems like a tough spot to expect many of the issues him and Thomas have had to go away.
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