XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 13 wraps up with the Giants visiting the Patriots for a 46.5 total game with New England installed as an 8.5 favorite. The big news here is the Giants getting back Jaxson Dart (poor Jameis goes back to the bench after a solid performance last week, but maybe that’s enough to help him get a contract next year).
NEW ENGLAND
On the New England side of things, Rhamondre Stevenson returned from injury last week, and he did manage to eat away at TreVeyon Henderson’s workload a bit. Henderson played between 75% and 88% of the snaps in the three games Rhamondre missed while handling 20, 15, and 24 opportunities, then dipped to 65% last week, though that still came with a robust 22 opportunities. Henderson has certainly cemented himself as the lead back, but Rhamondre’s return does take a bit of the upper ceiling off of him. Still, as a big home favorite in an elite matchup against a Giants defense that is dead last in the league in yards per carry allowed (by a WIDE margin – 5.9 to 5.3 for Buffalo, which is the next worst) – things sure line up for the Patriots backfield to smash, and $8,000 is comically cheap for Henderson given his role and matchup. It is really just a clear pricing error on DK’s part – it’s like they didn’t realize how his workload remained robust even after Rhamondre returned. He’s the top skill position play on the slate. He’s going to be really, really chalky, but he’s an awesome on-paper play. Rhamondre at $5k is a little spendy for an RB2, but the elite matchup and potential blowout run keep him in play. It is at least within the realm of possibility that Rhamondre was limited because it was his first game back, and that he assumes a bigger role this week. If that’s the case, maybe Henderson disappoints, but in that case, Rhamondre is then significantly underpriced. I think it would be reasonable to have a rule to play at least 1 Patriots running back in every lineup.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the Giants aren’t much better on defense, and Drake Maye has been playing at a near-MVP level this year. The only real knock against him is that he has yet to even reach the 300 passing yard mark because the Patriots have blown out so many opponents. That’s prevented Maye from being in many tournament-winning lineups on main slates, but obviously, in a Showdown, things are different and he’s an awesome play. The challenge, as always, is who the heck we stack him with. New England’s leaders in snaps and routes are Kayshon Boutte and…Mack Hollins (lol), while offseason acquisition Stef Diggs is stuck in the 50-60% snap range. At least New England has mostly condensed things down to those three guys, with DeMario Douglas and Kyle Williams largely disappearing last week in a competitive game, though it’s possible they could pop back up if the Patriots crush the Giants. The funny thing about this wide receiver corps is that the two “main” WRs who are on the field the most absolutely suck at earning targets. Boutte is the ostensible WR1, but his target rate is just 13.4%, while Hollins is at 17.7%. Boutte has some explosiveness to his game, and with an awesome 16.4 yard aDOT, he has a very high ceiling, though that comes with a floor of literally zero, which is awfully strange for a WR1. Hollins is slightly safer due to his higher target rate, but does not carry the same sort of ceiling. And then we come to Diggs, who is $8,800 despite being a part-time player. Diggs DOES earn targets while on the field – he has six games of 7+ targets (Boutte has 1); his route participation rate is just 73%, but he’s at least earning targets when on the field with a 26% target rate. It’s tough to be super enthusiastic about playing a guy who’s off the field so much when he’s also the most expensive pass catcher on the team. I’ll probably somewhat shy away from Diggs and favor the Pats ground game, but it’s worth considering that might be a very popular position and lead to Diggs being pretty low owned; we’ll have to see what the ownership projections look like, but at least for now I’m viewing Diggs as something of a pay up to be contrarian option (if he’s under 30-35%, I’d consider that low and would be more interested). Douglas and Williams are punt options, with Douglas being the superior play, but they’re both pretty thin unless you think they get more run in a blowout.
At tight end, Hunter Henry finally popped back up into fantasy relevance last week in the best possible matchup after seven straight weeks of single-digit DK scores…just in time to see a big price bump all the way up to $7,400. It’s really tough for me to see Henry paying off this price tag unless he lucks into a multiple TD game or the Patriots elevate their passing volume, as his two best weeks of the season came when Maye attempted 35 and 37 passes, his 2nd and 3rd most of the year, which resulted in 10 and 11 Henry targets and 20+ DK points. Henry pretty clearly fits best on rosters built around the Giants upsetting the Patriots or at least playing from ahead for part of the game and forcing New England into a higher volume passing attack. TE2 Austin Hooper has 19 targets on the year and is a dart throw, though probably a slightly better one than Douglas or Williams.
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