Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WR Drake London (knee) remained sidelined in Wednesday’s practice, making it likely he misses another game this week.
- The Jets have just one player listed on their injury report for Week 13, DL Harrison Philips (DNP, foot), who is expected to practice by the end of the week.
- QB Tyrod Taylor is expected to start again under center for the Jets.
- New York’s current top two options at wide receiver were not with the team to start the season – WRs John Metchie and Adonai Mitchell. Garrett Wilson remains on injured reserve.
- This game is a battle between two teams with veteran backup quarterbacks missing their top wide receivers.
- We have a two-game sample of how the Falcons are expected to behave with Kirk Cousins under center and no Drake London, while we have a one-game sample of how we expect the Jets to behave with Tyrod Taylor under center and no Garrett Wilson.
- Both teams have allowed below average rates of explosive plays, both on the ground and through the air.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How atlanta Will Try To Win ::
The Falcons had two of their four lowest PROE games in the two games started by veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins, with Cousins attempting just 31 passes in a 34-10 loss to the Dolphins in Week 8 and 23 passes in a 24-10 win over the Saints in Week 12. They ran only 48 offensive plays as they struggled to sustain drives against the Dolphins, leading to only 17 team rush attempts, and 55 offensive plays against the Saints, leading to 29 combined team carries. It is interesting that those two games also happened to be the only two games that Drake London missed this season, which appears to be the case again in Week 13. In other words, we have a two-game sample of expected tendencies already this season that showcase how we expect this team to behave with the personnel they are likely to have on the field against the Jets.
I don’t know if this is signal or noise, but it is notable that lead back Bijan Robinson carried two of his three lowest snap rate games in the contests started by Cousins this season (60% and 66% against the Dolphins and Saints, respectively). Both of those games involved extreme environments with the Falcons trailing throughout against the Dolphins and leading throughout against the Saints, meaning they could simply be outliers based on game environment considering the fact we expect Robinson to remain heavily involved in games that are close throughout, as he was in the 30-27 loss to the Panthers in which he saw 23 carries and five targets in Week 11. That is a long way of saying that Bijan is most valuable to us in close games, with the team otherwise content to give backup Tyler Allgeier increased run. One interesting aspect of the matchup is that the Jets held Derrick Henry to 3.0 yards per carry, TreVeyon Henderson to 3.3 yards per carry, and Quinshon Judkins to 3.4 yards per carry in the three games since trading away key pieces of their defense at the trade deadline (including Quinnen Williams). On the season, the Jets are allowing only 4.2 yards per carry behind the third fewest yards allowed before contact per attempt (1.55). Consider this a neutral-to-negative matchup on the ground.
The Falcons understandably utilized extreme rates of 12-personnel in their Week 12 win, a game played without Michael Penix and Drake London. In fact, they also mixed in some 13-personnel, for good measure. David Sills actually led the team in snap rate at wide receiver (70%), with Kyle Pitts (95%), Charlie Woerner (61%), and Teagan Quitoriano (63%) soaking up the bulk of the pass-catching snaps on the team. Pitts (92.6%) and Darnell Mooney (85.2%) were the only pass-catchers to be in a route on more than 60% of the team’s dropbacks, sapping much of the upside from this unit. Pitts has accounted for a 25.9% target rate in the two games started by Cousins this season, handily leading the team but also lacking top tier upside considering expected tendencies. There isn’t a ton of upside from this group outside of extremely negative game environments, which are much more unlikely against the Taylor-led Jets.
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