Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- These two teams played to a 36-30 overtime thriller just three calendar weeks ago.
- That said, the Buccaneers are a very different team than the last time they met, with both Mike Evans (hamstring, potential IR candidate) and Chris Godwin (dislocated ankle, done for the season) set to miss Week 8.
- The Buccaneers are left with tight end Cade Otton and wide receivers Trey Palmer, Sterling Shepard, and rookie Jalen McMillan as their primary pass-catching options.
- Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving is reportedly a long shot to suit up in Week 8, likely leaving Rachaad White in the primary role with Sean Tucker as the change-of-pace option.
How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::
As we’ve covered throughout the season, the Falcons are not going to be a team pushing the aggression on their own, with quarterback Kirk Cousins attempting more than 35 passes on just one occasion this season (the last time these two teams met). There is, however, something to be said of the fact that the Buccaneers are so difficult to run on that teams simply prefer to attack them through the air, as evidenced by their fifth-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE) faced this season. But if the Falcons are in control of a game environment, they would much prefer to string together drives and dominate time of possession as opposed to looking to maximize scoring every time they touch the football. The offense is concentrated in the sense of snap rates, as there are five primary skill-position players to see 70%+ of the offensive snaps in a standard week: Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts. That said, all five are utilized in conjunction, as opposed to one player clearly separating themselves from the pack in recent utilization.
This backfield is one of those situations where the change-of-pace back does just enough to preclude the lead back from entering workhorse territory, with Tyler Allgeier sapping just enough off of Robinson to hold the latter to sub-elite marks of 14.7 carries and 4.0 targets per game. Robinson ranks seventh in the league in red-zone opportunities with 21, but he has seen just two goal-line opportunities to the 16 red-zone and two goal-line opportunities of Allgeier. Considering the matchup against a Buccaneers defense facing the fifth-highest PROE this season, plus an increased chance that the Falcons control the game environment, and we’re left with sub-optimal expected workloads from this backfield. What is most important to understand from that exploration is a clear tendency from offensive Zac Robinson to get Allgeier more involved later in games the Falcons are in control of, capping Robinson’s upside in the process.
Drake London is the clear alpha through the air, leading the team in targets-per-route-run rate (TPRR, 28%), target market share (25.4%), and first-read target rate (36.0%), but the general lack of pass volume in this offense and a moderate 9.9-yard aDOT leaves him needing elite volume to return GPP viability. The next three primary pass catchers are all clumped together in underlying metrics, with all of Mooney, Pitts, and McCloud seeing a TPRR between 18% (McCloud) and 21% (Mooney) and a target rate between 20.5% (Mooney) and 14.3% (Pitts), and Mooney separating from the pack in first-read target rate at a solid 26.8%. Mooney’s 11.2-yard aDOT is most conducive to fantasy upside in the absence of volume and the Buccaneers have allowed a hefty 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season, but it is a thinner play than many will realize in this spot. Finally, the Buccaneers have dealt with numerous key injuries in their secondary, the most recent of which is standout corner Jamel Dean, who hit injured reserve with a hamstring injury Thursday. That likely thrusts rookie Tyrek Funderburk into a starting role opposite Zyon McCollum.
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