XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
We’re already at Week 6, and it starts with Philly visiting New York for a 40.5 total game (which has moved down 3 points from the opening line) with the Eagles favored by 7 or 7.5 points depending on where you look.
NEW YORK
On the New York side, Tyrone Tracy looks likely to return to the field after being hurt early in Week 3. Tracy, however, was already being displaced in the backfield. He played the lead role in Week 1, but then in Week 2, he was out-snapped by rookie Cam Skattebo and also out-touched 14 to 10. Skattebo has played well since taking on the lead back role with 90+ scrimmage yards in his last three games, including catching 14 of 17 targets. The role here is robust, and my expectation here is that Tracy probably slides into the RB2 role currently occupied by Devin Singletary rather than having much impact on Skattebo. As a big underdog, this doesn’t immediately jump out as a great running back spot, but Skattebo’s large passing game role keeps him firmly in play and somewhat game script immune, and Philly is also allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per carry to opposing teams so far this year. $10k is a premium price, and it’s tough to pay given that the field will want to play a lot of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. I actually quite like Skattebo here, and I think he’s likely to go a bit underowned. Tracy at $7k is a tough click in a small role – he’s a highly contrarian tourney option in case the Giants do something unexpected and give him his RB1 job back, while Singletary is likely to see his role shrink down to just a handful of snaps.
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In the passing game, Jaxson Dart has looked at least somewhat capable to start his NFL career. He led the Giants to a win against the Chargers and then struggled on the road against the Saints with 3 turnovers, but also accounted for 2 passing touchdowns and ran for 55 yards. His rushing ability keeps his floor solid (he scored 18.6 DK points last week despite the 3 turnovers). Of note is that after taking 5 sacks in his first start, New Orleans only sacked him once on a massive 40 pass attempts. Of those 40 attempts last week, we saw 7 targets each to Skattebo, Wan’dale Robinson, and Theo Johnson, 6 to Darius Slayton, 4 to Daniel Bellinger, 3 to Jalin Hyatt and Beaux Collins, and 2 to Devin Singletary. Positionally, that’s 18 targets to the wide receivers (with very little success. The wideouts only accounted for a grand total of 9 catches and 68 yards between them). Wan’dale is the safest option here as the clear WR1 without Malik Nabers, and $7.2k looks attractive at first glance, but he’s gone back to his near-0 aDOT role since the QB switch (remember he was playing more downside with Russ at QB, but since Dart took over, he’s playing super close to the line of scrimmage). That leaves him reliant on either a ton of catches, a broken YAC play, or a touchdown to find a ceiling. He’s fine from a volume perspective as he’s likely to see plenty of targets, but there’s not a lot about this matchup that makes him attractive beyond that. Darius Slayton seems likely to miss (Q tag, designated no practice on Tuesday’s walkthrough, short week), but we’ll see. Should Slayton play, he’ll be in his deeper role with a quarterback who is not throwing deep (ranked 31st in adjusted air yards per pass attempt). That’s a tough spot for Slayton to succeed in, as he doesn’t have Wan’dale’s YAC ability, and he’s priced just $600 less. While Slayton always has some “boom” to his profile, he’s far more likely to bust in this matchup. Consider him a highly variant tourney play with low odds of hitting (but he CAN hit). If Slayton misses, Jalin Hyatt is basically a direct replacement for him. Hyatt has a massive aDOT of 28.3 yards (albeit on just 3 targets this season), but much like Slayton, he has a very boom/bust profile and is more likely to bust. Unlike Slayton, Hyatt is just $3.2k. Assuming Slayton misses, Hyatt is basically the same play for a much cheaper price, which means I like him a fair bit more. Hyatt is also still playable if Slayton plays; he’s just likely to see fewer snaps and targets, but he’ll still be on the field. Collins is also a guy we’ve barely seen with 3 targets this year and a 4.7 yard aDOT – he’s playing much closer to the line of scrimmage, giving him very little upside unless he catches a touchdown. If Slayton’s out, we also might see Gunner Olszewski or a practice squad wideout called up. They won’t project well at all, but would make for an interesting tournament dart as they’ll likely be almost unowned but will still see some reasonable field time, and it’s even possible they play ahead of Hyatt or Collins.
At tight end, Johnson and Bellinger are splitting some time, with Johnson in the larger role. Worth noting is that the Giants played their highest rate of 12 personnel last week, which led to 11 targets for the tight ends as a group, including scoring both of New York’s touchdowns. The yardage upside here is fairly modest, but it looks like Dart is showing some preference for throwing to tight ends early in his NFL career (Johnson also tied for the team lead in targets in Dart’s Week 4 start). At $5,800, and leading the team in targets in each game with Dart, Johnson looks a bit underpriced here, though the Eagles D has been a difficult matchup for opposing tight ends thus far (I don’t personally put a lot of stake into positional matchup for tight ends because different teams use their tight ends in such different ways, but your mileage may vary). Bellinger won’t be on the field nearly as much, but at $2,800, he represents a reasonable value option. I’d prefer the two cheap Giants wideouts if Slayton misses, though.
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