Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WR CeeDee Lamb is still not practicing (as of Thursday), but early reports from this week indicate he is getting close to a return. I would expect him to miss Week 6 against the Panthers but be in line to return in Week 7 against the Commanders.
- RB Miles Sanders went from limited on Wednesday to DNP on Thursday and appears to be in line to miss a second consecutive game.
- WR KaVontae Turpin has also yet to practice this week, and Ryan Flournoy had a breakout game in Week 5 as the WR3.
- RB Chuba Hubbard went DNP-DNP through Thursday and appears to be in line to miss his second consecutive game, setting the stage for the Rico Dowdle #revengenarrative game.
- TE Ja’Tavion Sanders got in a full practice Thursday and is likely to return in Week 6.
- WR Jalen Coker got in two full practices and appears set to make his season debut for the Panthers.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How dallas Will Try To Win ::
The Cowboys rank fourth in pace of play, third in play volume (66.4 plays per game), first in total offense (406.6 yards per game), and fourth in points per game (30.2) while also allowing the most yards per game (412.0) and the fourth most points per game (30.8). They are generating explosive plays on offense while ceding explosive plays on defense. In other words, they are the top team to target for game environment bets any time they take the field. Quarterback Dak Prescott ranks second in passing yards, tied for fifth in completion rate (of quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks), and tied for third in touchdown passes, all while carrying a robust 13.8% deep throw rate. And they aren’t as one-dimensional as I thought they would be coming into the season, currently averaging the eighth most rushing yards per game (134.4) with a more neutral pass rate than I thought they’d have as well. But that run game has served them well and allowed the offense to be more fluid. Even more impressive is that they’ve done what they have done this season while missing one of the top wide receivers in the league for effectively three games (he was injured early in their Week 3 game). At the same time, I think they are well aware of the fact that their defense is a bottom-feeder unit, meaning they remain aggressive throughout their games.
Javonte Williams has given this team their best run game since rookie year Tony Pollard, with Williams averaging more yards per carry than anyone in the history of the team (yes, that is a real stat – unlikely to hold throughout the season, but it is a real stat). He has played 72% or more of the offensive snaps in every game but their Week 3 drubbing at the hands of the Bears and has accounted for 78% of the team’s opportunities inside the five. He also has a solid 34.2% stuff rate on the season, which comes with a modest 5.1% explosive run rate. He’s not running away from dudes, and he’s not breaking tackles at an above-average rate; he’s just getting the yards that are blocked for him and avoiding negative plays. JM’s continued comp of James Conner appears to be spot on here. Except I would argue Williams actually carries more upside than Conner ever has as a member of the Cardinals, now ranking fifth in XFP/G at 17.4 (behind only Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and Bijan Robinson). The matchup on the ground is more middling than it has been in previous seasons against a Panthers team allowing 4.5 yards per carry (19th) behind just 1.79 yards allowed before contact per attempt.
The Panthers are playing better defensively than they have in either of the previous two seasons, but they remain one of the more straightforward units in the league. They are blitzing on only 17.2% of opposing dropbacks and are generating the lowest pressure rate in the league (8.3%), playing from Cover-3 at one of the highest rates in the league (third-ranked 42.0%). Tight end Jake Ferguson leads the team with a 0.32 TPRR against Cover-3 this season (2.62 YPRR) while George Pickens leads the team in YPRR against Cover-3 (3.68), making this a solid spot on paper for both primary options through the air. The Panthers being so straight-up defensively should allow Dak to pick them apart while attacking with his primary options, making me less interested in the quasi-breakout from Ryan Flournoy from a week ago.
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