GAME OVERVIEW ::
By Hilow >>
- Jayden Daniels’ (knee) status for Week 4 remains uncertain, but it appears to me that he is tracking to play. We’ll write up the remainder of this exploration as if he is in and we’ll update it on Friday (or Saturday) if he is eventually ruled out.
- WR Noah Brown (groin, knee) has yet to practice (as of Thursday) after missing the team’s Week 3 win over the Raiders.
- WR Terry McLaurin (quad) has not practiced through Thursday and appears primed to miss Week 4.
- CB A.J. Terrell was ‘DNP’ on Wednesday and Thursday and would be a sizable loss to the Atlanta defense.
- I expect the Commanders to continue to deploy a messy three-way timeshare in the backfield.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::
How Washington will try to win likely depends greatly on their quarterback situation. Last week with Marcus Mariota under center, we saw the offense slow down (31.2 seconds per play after being the second-fastest team in the league with Daniels under center), which honestly could have also been influenced by extremely positive game script as well. The offense was more conservative, intentionally, last week, with Mariota carrying a 7.4-yard aDOT with a 4.8% deep-throw rate and just 21 pass attempts, versus an 8.3-yard aDOT, 12.5% deep-throw rate, and 72 pass attempts through two games for Daniels. Another aspect likely to define their game plan here is the status of McLaurin, who has yet to practice this week. Brown is already trending to be out for the second consecutive contest, meaning the team could be forced to deploy Jaylin Lane, Chris Moore, and Luke McCaffrey on the perimeter with two missing perimeter receivers. And then there’s the state of the backfield, which was a messy three-headed monster in Week 3 in the absence of Austin Ekeler. In all, this team has a lot of moving pieces to work through this week. Luckily for them, they draw a matchup with a Falcons team working through their own demons after being the first team to let go of a coach on their staff this week.
The Falcons have allowed 4.0 yards per carry behind only 1.40 yards allowed before contact, but volume could be on the side of the Washington ground game if the Falcons can’t move the football like they showed against the Panthers in Week 3. Jacory Croskey-Merritt played the most snaps in Week 3 (40%) but managed just 26 yards and a touchdown on eight carries to the 11-39-0 line of Chris Rodriguez and the 4-78-1 line of Jeremy McNichols. The breakdown in opportunities also wasn’t overly influenced by the game environment, as all three backs saw work in the first half. I would expect this messy situation to carry forward with all three backs seeing work.
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Atlanta’s base defense runs from Cover-3 (41.5%, fifth highest in the league). They also deploy an above-average rate of Cover-1 (24.5%, mostly via Terrell shadows), leading to the second-highest rate of single-high in the league this season. The biggest problem isn’t the matchup, it’s the potential absences of both McLaurin and Brown. That could leave Moore on the perimeter in a near every-down rate after the veteran journeyman has played on the outside at a 94.4% clip (versus 66.7% for McCaffrey and 69.9% for Lane). The secondary effects of the missing personnel could lessen the downfield aggression from Daniels, assuming he starts, turning the team into a “march the field and sustain drives” mindset. That plays most into the potential volume for Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz, the two of whom I would expect to be the focal points of the offense through the air, again, assuming Daniels is in and McLaurin and Brown are out. McLaurin would be in a fantastic spot against a single-high-heavy defense potentially without Terrell if he manages to suit up.
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