WFT (

22.25) at
Chargers (

25.25)

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By mike Johnson >>

• Washington welcomes back star quarterback Jayden Daniels after a two game absence, but may once again be without their top wide receiver, Terry McLaurin.
• Washington’s backfield continues to work as a three-way committee since Austin Ekeler’s injury and has been very effective doing so, ranking 6th in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA.
• Chargers rookie running back Omarion Hampton stepped into a massive workload in his first game without Najee Harris.
• The Los Angeles offensive line continues to struggle in large part due to their mounting injuries.
• Quarterback Justin Herbert continues to sling it all over the yard, as the Chargers lead the NFL in pass rate over expectation.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders team we see this Sunday will be one that we have not yet seen this season. Their season opening win over the Giants was basically a walk through and relatively uneventful, as New York’s offense was putrid and barely put up a fight. After that, they faced a very good Packers defense on a short week and lost convincingly in that Thursday night game. During that game, they lost quarterback Jayden Daniels to a knee injury and Austin Ekeler’s season came to an end. As such, the Commanders played their last two games with Marcus Mariota as their quarterback and a collection of running backs rotating in, while also losing last year’s top wide receiver, Terry McLaurin, to a quad injury that held him out for Week 4 and has his status for this game in doubt. All of that to say that this is the first time we will see the Commanders in a competitive game with a full week of preparation, Daniels as their QB, no McLaurin, and the current collection of running backs manning the backfield. From that lens, a lot of the “data” and evidence we would usually use to evaluate how a team will look to play will not be very relevant to us here.

First things first, the Chargers defense struggled mightily with the rushing ability of Jaxson Dart in last week’s loss to the Giants. This obviously looms large for this matchup as Daniels is one of the most electric rushing QBs in the league. He is coming back from a knee injury, but we should expect that Washington wouldn’t have him out there unless/until he was able to be his normal, agile self. Daniels practiced in full on Wednesday, a sign that he will be full go. The Chargers pass defense has been elite, ranking third in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, but their run defense has been spotty. Expect the Commanders to attack the Chargers by using a heavy dose of RPO (run-pass option) and play-action type play designs. Daniels’ ability to make quick reads and execute them combined with his elite athleticism, is a nightmare for opposing defenses. This approach, often involving screens or quick passes to receivers, also helps to mitigate pass rushes and keeps defenses on their heels. Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has long been known for his use of the “horizontal raid” passing game, stretching defenses sideline to sideline through a variety of concepts and formations. His offense in Washington has become more diverse and vertical thanks to Daniels, but this week, since they will likely be without McLaurin, we could see a lower average depth of target and focus on the quick passing game.

It should also be noted that the Chargers defensive metrics look very good on paper, but the quarterbacks they faced have been: Mahomes without his top weapons, Geno Smith, Bo Nix, and Jaxson Dart (lost Malik Nabers in first half). Daniels at full strength will be, by far, the most difficult and dynamic QB the Chargers have had to deal with this season and could expose them in ways they have not yet seen. Mahomes, Nix, and Dart combined to average 48 rushing yards against the Chargers – making it a highly probable outcome that Daniels (assuming full health) could feast on them on the ground while also opening up rushing lanes for their backfield simply with the threat of his legs.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

This could be a fun one.

On the Washington side, the extent of my interest is Jayden Daniels, Zach Ertz, and Deebo Samuel Sr. I probably won’t use Ertz or Deebo on rosters that aren’t built around Daniels or Herbert, but both make a lot of sense paired with either QB.

Omarion Hampton is an absolute stud. The “matchup” isn’t great with Washington’s defense solid against the run, but Hampton can get there in a variety of ways and his talent and role is probably worthy of a higher salary than the current $6,500 level he is at.

Justin Herbert doubles could be fun this week. This game has paths to upside and as just discussed it doesn’t appear the Chargers will be able to run the ball with great efficiency. Herbert’s receivers and Hampton are all relatively underpriced for how concentrated things seem to be. The Chargers offensive line issues could also lead to their tight ends staying in to help with the Commanders pass rush, which would only serve to further condense things. We can’t forget Herbert’s rushing ability, either.

Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey are the receivers I am targeting from this game. QJ is the best bet in a vacuum, while McConkey makes a lot of sense from a game theory and salary standpoint.