Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- Both of these franchises with high expectations are fighting for their playoff lives with very little margin for error, while coming off huge comeback victories that kept their hopes alive.
- Kansas City’s backfield has been dominated by Kareem Hunt recently, but it may be more complicated this week.
- The Dallas defense has been much improved since their Week 10 bye, thanks to personnel acquisitions and better execution.
- These offenses rank 4th and 7th, respectively, in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the last month.
- George Pickens has been outperforming CeeDee Lamb in recent weeks, but the WR duo for Dallas leaves opponents in a tough spot.
- Dallas plays a zone heavy coverage scheme, which should funnel a massive amount of targets to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce.
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How kansas city Will Try To Win ::
The Chiefs were on the verge of having a losing record in the second half of the season for the first time in over a decade last week as they entered at 5-5 and faced a 20-9 4th quarter deficit against the Colts. In classic Chiefs fashion, however, they found a way to pull out a close victory through some staunch defense, timely conversions, and Patrick Mahomes magic. Kansas City’s path to the playoffs is not a pushover, but it is far from something they can’t overcome. They have games left against the lowly Titans and Raiders, as well as matchups with the Cowboys, Chargers, Texans, and Broncos – all of whom are respectable opponents with playoff possibilities. All of the Chiefs losses have been by one possession, so despite their middling record they are still lurking as a team who can go on a run and everyone in the AFC should be concerned that they may just be figuring things out.
Kansas City leads the NFL in pass rate over expectation, a stat that should surprise no one at this point, but is still worth stating. Patrick Mahomes is the engine here and the backfield’s volume generally shows up when the game script and matchup dictate it. Otherwise, the Chiefs generally run the ball just often enough that you can’t ignore it altogether. Despite that, the Chiefs rank 6th in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA as their play calling and the times that they do run the ball are usually the opportune moments. This week they face a Dallas defense that on paper looks like a terrible unit against the run if you check the full season statistics, but in reality is far from a pushover. They have added multiple players this season through trades and were missing some injured players who are now back on the field. This is a team that just held Saquon Barkley to 22 rushing yards on 10 carries and forced the Eagles to live through the passing game last week despite falling behind 21-0 due to a horrible start in all areas. All of this is to say the Chiefs will run the ball some, but are unlikely to be overly successful doing so, and therefore this game will rest on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, as is often the case.
When Kansas City does throw the ball, they will face a zone-heavy Dallas coverage scheme that has been focused on not allowing deep passes after getting torched early in the season. The Cowboys blitz at a moderate rate, but seem likely to pick and choose their spots this week against Mahomes. We should not expect them to be overly aggressive in this matchup and leave themselves exposed in the secondary when we consider the opponent and their overall defensive philosophy. This means they will have a lot of bodies in coverage, but Mahomes should have time to read the field and make his throws. The obvious beneficiaries for the Chiefs in this schematic matchup are WR Rashee Rice and TE Travis Kelce. Rice’s underneath role and ability to make plays after the catch are perfect for exploiting zone coverage and he is far more effective in those spots than in man coverage. Mahomes is elite at seeing the holes in the zone and getting the ball to Rice with great ball placement, so he is able to quickly turn from receiver to ball carrier and make the most of his opportunities. The Chiefs have been expanding the ways they use Rice, which were on full display in last week’s comeback against the Colts as he was moved all over the formation, put in motion often, and ran a diverse route tree. He was the clear engine for the offense and did not disappoint. Kelce can operate in a similar role, although his after catch ability is not what it once was. Assuming Mahomes has time to scan the field and improvise when first reads aren’t there, Kelce should make some plays in “scramble drill” situations due to the elite chemistry between the two. Other players will be involved, and the Chiefs rotate their other skill players at a relatively high rate, but when it is all said and done we should expect around a 65-70% pass rate from the Chiefs with Rice and Kelce combining for 50-60% of the targets.
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