Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Chargers have scored, and allowed, 19.6 points per game; the Dolphins have scored 21.4 points per game while allowing 29.0 points per game.
- Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey are set up well for volume in this spot (more below).
- Los Angeles’ backfield is not to be trusted here, although a legitimate case can be made to take MME shots on Nyheim Miller-Hines.
- I don’t see clear paths to this game environment taking off. I don’t typically bet game totals, but there is EV to the under.
- Dolphins TE Darren Waller worked up to a 58% snap rate in Week 5.
- The end seems near for Mike McDaniel in Miami.
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How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::
The Chargers started the season hot by winning against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos before dropping two consecutive games to the Giants and Commanders. The biggest takeaway from that trend is the injuries to their offensive line, which has led to just 28 total points in the previous two games. The absence of Joe Alt is meaningful for an offense that now ranks third in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and aims to control game environments through long, sustained drives on offense while generating disruption on defense. And for all the things the Dolphins are not, they are actually generating pressure at a higher rate this season than both the Giants and Commanders, the Chargers’ two previous opponents. They are doing so behind the fifth-highest blitz rate in the league. Quarterback Justin Herbert has the fourth-most yards against the blitz this season via a modest 7.8-yard aDOT and solid 64.2% completion rate. But in the last two weeks (when Alt was injured), those numbers drop to a 52.2% completion rate and a 6.4-yard aDOT, again highlighting the drop in efficiency in this offense without Alt. Considering both the absence of Alt and the absences of the team’s top two running backs, I would expect the game plan to be a ball-out-quick offense to limit the time the Dolphins are able to have the football, primarily hitting the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. That aligns with where the Dolphins are allowing production this season, now facing the fourth-lowest defensive aDOT (6.6 yards) while bleeding production from two-high (league-high 0.78 FP/DB allowed on an elevated 60.4% utilization rate).
The injuries to Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton leave the backfield in the hands of Hassan Haskins, Kimani Vidal, and (maybe) Miller-Hines (more on him below). Haskins profiles as an early-down grinder while Vidal brings at least some pass-catching chops to the table, although Miller-Hines represents the clear option in clear passing situations if he’s active. I suspect he will be come Sunday. Considering the heavy blitz rates and heavy two-high rates from the Dolphins, and the absence of the top two backs in addition to Alt, I would expect Miller-Hines to see an elevated role here. Take a minute and go watch his preseason pass-pro reps – the dude is an absolute animal in pass pro and brings elite pass-catching chops to the table. All of that to say, I think we see the Chargers all but abandon the run here in every sense other than keeping the Dolphins honest. Chargers backs averaged just 3.76 yards per carry against the Commanders in Week 5.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Allen handily leads the team in target rate and targets per route run (TPRR) against two-high this season (25.3% target rate and 0.28 TPRR) with a “natural for the matchup” 7.8-yard aDOT. The tight ends led the team in TPRR against two-high a season ago, opening up some upside potential for the positions. That said, the return of Will Dissly invokes significant uncertainty after Dissly operated as the primary pass-catching option the first two weeks while rookie Oronde Gadsden II was inactive, and Gadsden operated as the primary pass-catching option in Weeks 3-5 with Dissly inactive. I wouldn’t expect any of the likely three tight ends the team has active on Sunday to see more than 50% of the available snaps. McConkey (0.19 TPRR against two-high) and Quentin Johnston (0.17 TPRR against two-high) don’t set up as well on paper as Allen and the tight ends, although both McConkey (0.30 TPRR) and Allen (0.44 TPRR) have ridiculously high TPRR in the niche split of “blitzed and the defense was in two-high” this season (has happened on only 20 dropbacks this season). But that does serve to highlight where the football is likeliest to go through the air in this spot. The ace in the hole, so to speak, for the Chargers this week is potentially Miller-Hines, who was signed to the practice squad after spending the offseason with the team (ultimately let go at roster cuts) following a two-year absence due to a knee injury. Miller-Hines has made a career as a pass-catching specialist and neither Haskins nor Vidal are overly exciting through the air. I could see a scenario where Hines sees an elevated snap rate ahead of Haskins and Vidal. Miller-Hines is not even in the player pool at present (Thursday) and would likely carry zero ownership if he’s added between now and Sunday (for my MME crowd).
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