Chargers (

24) at
Colts (

20.5)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 16 and the holidays close out with the Chargers visiting the Colts for a 45.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 4.5. The Colts are missing their best player with Jonathan Taylor out for the rest of the season leaving some confusion as to the state of their run game, while the Chargers are fully healthy with all of their primary offensive pieces active. It’s an interesting one to explore, so let’s dig in.

Indianapolis

In previous games where Jonathan Taylor missed, Deon Jackson was the main guy and performed pretty well, but last week when Taylor left early, it was Zack Moss who stepped into a big role. Moss logged 67% of the snaps vs. 32% for Jackson, and a whopping 25 running back opportunities (though only one target and a putrid 3.4 yards per carry), while Jackson handled 14 opportunities of his own and ran better at 4.2 yards per carry, but also just one target (which he caught for a touchdown) while losing a fumble. So, what happens this week? Good lord, I don’t know, but given the matchup against a Chargers defense that is 25th in run defense DVOA, there’s a solid chance of a Colts running back landing in the winning lineup. The safe (and probably correct) answer is leaning towards Moss here: he played almost 2x Jackson’s snaps last week, handled almost 2x the opportunities, and is $600 cheaper to boot. That’s probably the right way to lean, but it’s worth noting that Moss played poorly and Jackson acquitted himself fairly well in previous JT absences so don’t be surprised if things swing back Jackson’s way. Given their prices, I’m considering a set of rules to limit (but not completely block) exposure to rosters that pair both of them (see the suggested groups below for more on how I’m thinking about this).

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Colts are using a four-man rotation at wide receiver, with Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and Alec Pierce out there as full-time players while Ashton Dulin mixes in occasionally. Dulin can be used as an MME punt option, while Pittman is the clear alpha with seven games of 9+ targets on the season. At $8,200, that’s an extremely reasonable price for his talent and role (it’s also the cheapest he’s been in Showdown all season). The Parris Campbell career resurgence train has derailed a bit. After a mid-season surge with several games of 9+ targets and good results, Campbell has just 11 targets in the last three games. The recent low volume could be variance, it could be due to a renewed focus on the run game, or it could be intentional decision-making if the Colts are trying to focus their passing game elsewhere. I don’t think we can really know the answer here. At $5,400, it’s a risk I’m willing to embrace because we’ve seen target spikes and strong results multiple times this season (he’s put up three scores this year that would almost certainly land him in the winning lineup). At $2,800, Pierce is more boom/bust given his deep threat role, but that price is way too cheap for someone who’s going to be out there almost every passing down. The floor is scary (three games of zero points in his last five), but he has four games on the season that would likely have him in the winning lineup. At tight end, the Colts are a bit of a mess with all of Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson (update: Granson has been ruled out), Jelani Woods, and Nikola Kalinic seeing snaps. Kalinic does not have a target on the season so can be relegated to the deepest of MME pools. Alie-Cox has one game of over 5 Draftkings points and can be similarly tossed into the MME punt pool, though given that he at least sees targets somewhat regularly and is on the field a lot, he’s a better punt than Kalinic. Granson has one game over 10 DK points, while Woods appears to be the guy whose role is ascending (he has more points per game than any other Colts tight end despite barely playing to start the year). Complicating this further is that Granson is questionable and has not practiced as of Saturday morning. If he misses, I think that benefits Woods the most and makes him a strong value option, while Alie-Cox at minimum salary would move up from “total MME punt” to “well, his floor should no longer be zero here.” If Granson is in, I’d rank them Woods, Granson, Alie-Cox, and Kalinic. If Granson misses I’d keep the same rankings but would just feel much stronger about Woods overall.