Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Both of these offenses have looked much worse on film than either their records or point-per-game totals would indicate.
- Both defenses rank in the top half of the league in points allowed per game, with the Broncos tied for second (16.8) and the Eagles tied for 15th (22.0).
- The Eagles average 138.0 pass yards per game on the fewest pass attempts per game (25.3).
- The Eagles are passing over 70% of the time when quarterback Jalen Hurts is in shotgun and running over 80% of the time when Hurts is under center or in pistol.
- The leader in XFP/G from both teams in this game is Courtland Sutton at a modest 13.4, which is truly remarkable.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How denver Will Try To Win ::
The Broncos are an interesting study through three weeks. On one hand, they are currently sitting at 2-2 after beating teams they’re supposed to (Titans and Bengals) and losing to teams that are more competitive (Colts and Chargers). On the other hand, both of their losses have come on opposing field goals as time expired, the first of which required one of the more seldom-called penalties in the league. What I see is a team that derives its identity from the defensive side of the ball, with an offense still searching to find its rhythm. The “spread the wealth” offensive mentality that drove us wild the previous two seasons has returned for another year, with only Courtland Sutton consistently playing more than 60% of the offensive snaps. This appears to be a team content to take the game as it comes, seldom pushing things on their own as they shorten games with sustained drives and a suffocating defense. Also of note, and something that highlights the general mentality here, is how the Broncos are playing coin tosses (I know, weird, but stick with me). They have now elected to defer every time they have won the coin toss this season, but have allowed each of their opponents to score on their opening drives (all four opponents scored three points on their first possession). The “bend but don’t break” mentality rules the defense, while they appear to be positioning themselves to steal the game in the second half in all four weeks so far.
RJ Harvey had his mini-breakout in Week 4 while seeing a season-high 19 opportunities on 41% of the offensive snaps. I don’t know how much we can read into that in a game the Broncos only allowed an opening possession field goal to the Bengals before their opponent legitimately quit on the field, something I can’t remember seeing at this level this early in the season. Last week was also the first game in the Sean Payton Broncos era where the team had a 100-yard rusher (J.K. Dobbins hit 101 yards late in the game on 16 carries). The Broncos are blocking well up front, to the tune of 2.73 yards before contact per attempt, something we expected coming into the season behind one of the top offensive lines in the league. The Eagles have slipped a bit against the run this season while allowing 4.8 yards per carry behind a non-terrible 1.79 yards allowed before contact, making this a more neutral matchup on the ground than in previous seasons. Even so, it will be difficult for either Dobbins or Harvey to return a usable fantasy score while splitting work, considering the team is averaging a middling 28.3 carries per game, with quarterback Bo Nix accounting for just over six per game. Dobbins leads the way with a solid 10.5% explosive run rate and 60% of the carries inside the five, including three of the four team rushing scores this season.
Sutton has weekly fantasy finishes of WR12, WR111, WR4, and WR13 this season (WR12 overall through four games) after finishing as a top-15 wide receiver in five of his final 10 games in 2024. Even so, he has a lowly 19.7% target share, 0.23 TPRR, 2.27 YPRR, and 13.4 XFP/G through four games this season, making him about as reliant on touchdowns as any other receiver in the league. Troy Franklin checks in not too far behind Sutton with 12.8 XFP/G, while no other pass-catcher cracks Marvin Mims’ 7.3 XFP/G. Sutton (77.5%) and Franklin (72.8%) are the only two pass-catchers in a route on greater than 50% of the team’s dropbacks this year, while each player averages 6.8 targets per game. Like you’ll see with the Eagles below, it is just so hard to return consistent fantasy production on those profiles.
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