49ers (

20.25) at
Browns (

14.75)

Game Overview ::

By papy324

• The 49ers have slowed down and dropped their PROE since Brock Purdy returned from injury.
• Christian McCaffrey is always in play, but he’s expensive and this is the worst possible matchup.
• The 49ers pass catchers are affordable, but they’re in a low volume attack in a bad matchup.
• The Browns’ offense has been the worst in the league by many metrics, and Shedeur Sanders doesn’t look capable of changing their fortunes.
• Quinshon Judkins has been the lone bright spot for the Browns. They’re going to try and win through him, but his offensive line hasn’t been doing him any favors.
• The Browns are the opposite of a target team for DFS. They play stingy defense, and stink on offense.

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How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers come into Week 13 with an 8-4 record after a dominant primetime win against the middling Panthers. Eight wins would be tied for first place in any other division in the NFC, but unfortunately for the 49ers, that’s not the case in the NFC West. Easily the best division in football, the NFC West has three teams with eight wins or better, giving the 49ers no margin for error as they enter the final stretch of the season. Kyle Shanahan deserves a lot of credit as one of the few nepotism coaches who have worked out. He still runs a similar system to what his dad did in the 90s, and despite the league seeing it for years, they can’t stop the underlying concepts. The 49ers are balanced (14^th in PROE), but they’ve been slightly more run heavy lately (18^th in PROE over their last four games). They’ve also been playing fast (6th in seconds per play) throughout the season, but they’ve slowed down (22^nd in seconds per play) in their last three games. It’s interesting that the 49ers seemed more willing to play quickly with Mac Jones than Brock Purdy. The same looks true for passing game aggressiveness, as their PROE numbers have steadily dipped since Purdy returned. Their offense has also gotten healthier as the season progresses, with all their skill position players (this side of Brandon Aiyuk) back on the field. The Shanahan offense has been the same for years, and even though everyone has seen it forever, it’s still difficult to stop.

The Browns defense has been nails (1^st in DOVA) against the run and difficult (5th in DVOA) against the pass. The Browns aren’t just difficult to gain yards against; they also have a fierce pass rush that has generated 28 sacks in their past five games, including a whopping 10 sacks last week. The 49ers O-line has been playing above expectations (6^th ranked by PFF) and is coming off an excellent game. They allowed eight pressures and no sacks on 35 drop-backs against the Panthers, but Myles Garrett and the Browns will be a much tougher test. This will be a strength-on-strength battle in the trenches. There is no easy way to attack the Browns defense, which doesn’t give the 49ers, who always play a specific style, any reason to change. The 49ers are going to play their usual brand of balanced football, with a chance that they lean into the pass slightly more than usual because of how stiff the Browns are against the run.  

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::