Fantasy Football Week 15 Start/Sit: WR/TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 15’s action, including two Monday night games.
But first…
Last Week: 14-6 (.700)
– WR: 6-4 (60%)
– TE: 8-2 (80%)
2024 NFL Season: 165-115 (.590)
– WR: 84-56 (60%)
– TE: 81-59 (58%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Opponent: v. Miami Dolphins
Over/Under – 47.0
Opponent Rank v. WR: 4 (23.50)
Last Four Weeks: 11 (31.08)
Nico Collins is back, friends, right when we need him the most. When he’s on the field, he’s automatic for us, regardless of matchup. Miami has been good against the position all season, but Nico is different. In 75% of his games this season, he’s returned no worse than WR15, including three top-ten finishes. The targets finally translated this past Sunday, and it appears he and Stroud may be back on the same page. And, as is the theme with most of my start/sits this week, I love the matchups beyond this week. There are going to be a lot of points in this game, and it has the makings of a Tyreek Hill v. Nico Collins kind of day. We love that, don’t we?
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Opponent: v. Buffalo Bills
Over/Under – 54.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 12 (25.10)
Last Four Weeks: 21 (38.43)
DID YOU SEE THAT OVER UNDER??? BUY, BUY, BUY! Hopefully, you have a few pieces of this one because they’re going to blow the roof off out in Orchard Park (if they had one). In what could very well be a preview of Super Bowl LIX, expect both teams to have the pedal to the metal. This reco could have easily been Khalil Shakir here (honorable mention) as both teams cede their fair share of points to slot receivers (St. Brown lines up in the slot 52% of the time, Shakir nearly 76% of the time). I’m highlighting St. Brown here because he’s mired in a three-game “slump” if you will (thanks Tim Patrick), albeit with a sturdy floor. I don’t need to give you Amon-Ra’s resume; I’m just here to remind you to have faith in the guy you drafted in case you may have lost it.
Honorable mention: Puka Nacua (LAR), Khalil Shakir (BUF), Jerry Jeudy (CLE)
My Fades This Week
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under – 42.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 6 (24.30)
Last Four Weeks: 8 (29.98)
What is going on in Philly? Unless you’ve been in a cave with Aaron Rodgers, you know about the brewing drama between Hurts and Brown. And honestly, is anyone surprised? Brown has pulled this routine before when he feels he’s underutilized, for sure. But if you watched the game last week, let me ask you this – did it seem like Hurts was intentionally avoiding Brown? Little bit? Brown ran 26 routes and was only targeted four times (15% target share – his lowest of the season), and he looked open – a lot. Yes, DeVonta was back and had a DeVonta line, but something is still off. IDK what is going on, but it’s not good for us, especially during the playoffs. I actually traded for Brown right before the deadline and have been sorely disappointed in my return (four games with the following finishes – WR36, WR5, WR38, WR48). Friends, how can we trust it? In most situations, we kinda sorta have to, but I don’t like it. Fortunately I have other options on my bench, so he’s planted until I see it from him. Oh. And it’s the Steelers with a tiny little O/U. Lots to avoid here, unfortunately.
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
Opponent: v. Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under – 44.50
Opponent Rank v. WR: 30 (32.80)
Last Four Weeks: 32 (54.83)
Since Davante Adams left via trade, Jakobi Meyers has been pretty serviceable for us (of the flex/WR3 variety most weeks). And for what it’s worth, this matchup couldn’t be any juicier – the Falcons secondary looked horrendous against the Vikings (265 yards and five touchdowns, good for 75 points, damn). In fact, this Falcons defense has been destroyed by WRs pretty much all season. And just look at Meyers over the last month – 42 targets, 27 receptions, 313 yards, etc. The stars had aligned for Jakobi this week, and if you’d like to start him, be my guest. But this is a sit reco, so allow me to get to it. Two words – Desmond Ridder. Minshew is on the IR, and O’Connell is most likely going to miss this game. Insert the next man up, Ridder, and I couldn’t be less excited for it. As a matter of fact, I’m quite bummed about it, especially after attempting all week to sell/convince Lou Landers that O’Connell was a possible league winner with his schedule. Atlanta moved on for a reason, and so should you.
Honorable mention: Jayden Reed (GB), Tyreek Hill (MIA), DeAndre Hopkins (KC)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: @ Cleveland Browns
Over/Under – 45.50
Opponent Rank v. TE: 25 (11.10)
Last Four Weeks: 32 (24.63)
What a season it has been for Travis Kelce. All tight ends, really. The first three weeks, meh. Next six weeks… five top 10s (four top 5’s). Since? Not one finish above 12. Inconsistency, friends and I tend to stay away from it. Tight end is such a volatile position; however, you have to take the good with the bad. All that said, we’re obviously starting him against the Browns, but the ceiling is lower, no? Cleveland has actually been better than their season-long averages (thanks, Taysom Hill), but I’m not overly concerned. The targets are there, the yards are there, and I bet we get a tuddy from him this week.
Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins
Opponent: @ Houston Texans
Over/Under – 47.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 4 (7.70)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 25 (16.47)
THANK YOU , OVERTIME! AMIRIGHT? All I can say is… phew. Smith has been in my honorable mention a lot, but it’s time to feature him like Tua is doing. TE1 since Week 11, Jonnu is seeing a significant amount of targets, air yards, and touchdowns. And while the Texans have been good over the entire season-to-date, they’ve been susceptible this past month (even Chig got a 70 yard dart). Tyreek and Jaylen being back have diminished the output a bit for Smith, but I still like him this week in a must win for the Dolphins. Does a stat line of 6/50/1 seem so unreasonable in a game with an O/U at 47? Which, by the way, seems woefully low (I’ll be hitting the over if it stays here). Mr. Smith is a top-10 play this week.
Honorable mention: Trey McBride (ARI), George Kittle (SF), David Njoku (CLE)
My Fades This Week
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: @ Carolina Panthers
Over/Under – 43.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 32 (14.1)
Last Four Weeks: 28 (17.13)
My first TE sit was slotted for Brock Bowers (see Jakobi Meyers above), but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it with the season he’s having. Then I thought Pat Freiermuth, but with George Pickens likely to sit again, Pat is actually a decent start this week. Ferguson? Jake Ferguson, anyone? Ok, cool, me too. What a disappointment he’s been this year, even with Dak slinging the pill. But since Dak’s injury, bleh – TE34, TE41, TE21, and a couple of DNPs in between. I’m usually a matchup guy, and this one is fantastic – the Panthers are the most generous team to TEs on the season, exceedingly vulnerable to the touchdowns. But do you really have faith that Ferguson can deliver, even in the tastiest of matchups? Yeah, me neither.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: v. Chicago Bears
Over/Under – 44.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 17 (9.60)
Last Four Weeks: 21 (15.13)
Week 12. Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears. Hockenson’s stat line – 7/114/0 on nine targets, good for TE5 on the week. Not shabby, so why is he in my sit recos this week? Let me explain. In Hock’s other games since returning from injury (five), he’s finished higher than 17 only once. AND. If you take out the overtime stats against the Bears in Week 12 (3 catches for 48 yards), he’d have finished as TE22. Maybe he’s still working himself back from the leg injury (this is my theory). Maybe he’s not on the same page with Sam Darnold. Maybe there are two elite receivers (per PFF) on the roster taking touches ahead of everyone else. Pick your poison. It’s do-or-die time for us, friends, and Hock is outside the top 12 this week.
Honorable mention: Evan Engram (JAX), Cole Kmet (CHI), Cade Otton (TB)
