Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
If Week 1 was the slate of uncertainty, and Week 2 was the slate of overconfidence, Week 3 is the slate of injury mayhem. I say that because it is fundamentally altering how the field is seeing the slate. Kenneth Walker is injured and Zach Charbonnet played 97% of the offensive snaps with him out in Week 2. Christian McCaffrey is injured and Jordan Mason has seen all but one running back opportunity for the 49ers over the previous two games. Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are injured, and Cam Akers is $4,700 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel. Raheem Mostert is injured and De’Von Achane is coming off a 29-opportunity game, leading the team in both rushing and receiving. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are injured, and Brandon Aiyuk returned to a full-time player in the offense in Week 2. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are injured, and the remaining Rams pass-catchers are all priced at $5,000 and below. A.J. Brown is injured, and DeVonta Smith is coming off a 10-target game. Keenan Allen is injured, and D.J. Moore has averaged nine targets per game over the first two weeks. David Njoku is injured, three starting quarterbacks are injured… the list goes on and on.
But even with all the injuries, there isn’t a ton of value that projects well on this slate, likely pushing more of the field toward the perceived value invoked through the multitude of injuries. The pairing of these two major components is likely to lead to an immense concentration of ownership. And some of those players will hit for excellent cost considered scores this week, but I can guarantee you there are many plays (or teams) that are in “slightly worse situations” than a lot of the chalk, situations that will hit maybe 45-48% as much as a lot of the chalk. One spot that I’ve really been diving head-first into this week as I explore the shifting meta of the NFL is the running back position. In the post-workhorse era that we currently reside, we’ve become conditioned to rarely paying up for running backs and shifting the focus of the FLEX position to an emphasis on wide receivers. And then the first two weeks of the 2024 season happened, in which passing touchdowns were down to a 10-year low, and field goals were up to a nearly 30-year high. From what I can tell from grinding the tape on the 32 teams in the league, the increase of two-high utilization is fundamentally inviting the run while simultaneously prohibiting downfield passing. Now, there are things that can be done to collapse the depth set against single-high still (see the Saints write-up this week), but two-high plays a lot differently in that one safety is typically responsible for holding depth, even if they diagnose a run. So, teams are accepting the higher confidence play of a five-to-six-yard gain on the ground.
Furthermore, defensive coordinators are no longer as static in their alignments, coverages, and schemes (unless you’re Gus Bradley – yeah, he might not make it through the end of the season), instead being more fluid in the pre-snap picture they present to opposing quarterbacks. The poster child for this expansion in the league currently is “mad scientist” Brian Flores, who has taken components of Tampa-2 (a variation of Cover-2), quarters, and Cover-6 and integrated continuous motion in the linebacking corps (making it hard to diagnose coverages from pre-snap motion), stunt blitzes, and corner blitzes, all the while maintaining one of the highest two-high alignment rates in the league (78.5%, currently 7% higher than any other team through two weeks). Ten years ago, during the passing heyday, defensive coordinators continuously showed static Cover-1 and Cover-2 prior to the snap. Then we saw the meta shift to Cover-3, a single-high alignment. It took a few years, but offensive coordinators started figuring out how to exploit it, with pre-snap motion, play action, and safety manipulation. And now the league has adjusted again to the current meta of increased rates of variable two-high alignments.
This brings us back to my personal journey through this shifting meta this week, as it pertains to roster construction. Even though the age of the workhorse running back is deceased, might we now be in a new meta in which more ~70% opportunity share running backs, or timeshare backs on teams with increased rushing utilization, are seeing 22-25 opportunities each week? Might the first two weeks have unearthed new, or different, workhorse running backs? Can we leverage these trends before the field fully catches on? My thesis goes something like this – what if the increase in the number of weekly running backs to see 22+ opportunities leads to a higher hit rate of running backs in the FLEX. I have no idea if the current trends will hold, but it’s at least worth expanding our roster construction tendencies to include a higher rate of running backs in the FLEX until we get more information and can either confirm or refute the thesis. If this thesis is confirmed in the coming weeks, the edge will then be gone. Or maybe it won’t be, I don’t know, humans are typically allergic to change so it might take longer for the field to adjust. And here we are, in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season. Let’s dig in!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jordan Mason has put up back-to-back 100-yard games with a touchdown while seeing all but one running back opportunity for the 49ers this season. He has also seen just two total targets, making him the definition of a yardage and touchdown back. Yes, he has the highest rushing prop on the week. Yes, he is ridiculously underpriced on DraftKings (priced where he should be on FanDuel). But any yardage and touchdown back can fail if they aren’t, you know, scoring touchdowns. And he’s going to need multiple to sink you for not playing him this week. By all means, play the man, we simply must be honest with his range of outcomes here (as JM described in each of the previous two weeks, it’s probably somewhere in the 8-30 DK point range).
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Cam Akers was out-snapped by Dare Ogunbowale after Joe Mixon left the game in Week 2. He is also playing a defense holding opponents to 3.8 yards per carry behind one of the top defensive coordinators in the game. Any running back priced near bare minimum deserves consideration, but after consideration, I choose to say that this is a poor decision.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. No issues from me about playing Brandon Aiyuk this week. Even better if he draws a shadow from Tre’Davious White, who has given up 30% more yards in coverage than any other cornerback this season. That said, the sub-7k wide receiver range is packed with upside this week.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Zach Charbonnet has forced three missed tackles on 22 carries, has a pedestrian 2.73 yards after contact per attempt, and is running behind an offensive line oozing with uneven play and uncertainty. On the other hand, the dude played all but three offensive snaps for the Seahawks in Week 2 and saw five targets.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. 20 and 23 running back opportunities during the first two weeks of play, both games of which were massive blowout wins. Eight combined targets through two games means Kamara is game environment agnostic.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. It is highly likely DeVonta Smith sees eight or more targets in this spot, with clear paths to double-digit looks. The problem, for me, is that the state of the roster without A.J. Brown forced the Eagles to give Britain Covey, Johnny Wilson, and Parris Campbell meaningful snaps in the year of our Lord, 2024, shifting Smith from the slot to the perimeter, and sending him in motion far less. So, more targets but at the expense of expected efficiency/upside on those targets.
