Monday, Nov 28th

End Around 3.21.

Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW ::

It’s an interesting slate in that almost all of the players from the expected top game environments are priced in the mid-tier at their respective positions. This is likely going to lead to a large number of balanced rosters, with a good deal of ownership coming from the top three perceived game environments. Similar to last week, it’s a great slate to build around uncertainty and against public perception. I want to reiterate that we need to be doing this smartly and not just being contrarian to be contrarian. If you’re not sure exactly what I’m talking about there, I highly encourage picking up a course or two from quite literally any of the outstanding analysts on staff.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

DALVIN COOK / ALEXANDER MATTISON

Restrictive chalk / neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Dalvin’s game day status is likely to carry immense influence on the slate as a whole. Currently projected as the running back to carry the highest ownership, expect massive ownership on Mattison should Dalvin miss.

DERRICK HENRY

Restrictive chalk. Recency bias at its finest here. All most people will see is the juicy-looking 4.3 yards allowed per carry from the Colts defense, yet top run-stopping linebacker Darius Leonard has played with an injured ankle all season. His first full practice of the season occurred this Wednesday, possibly indicating a return to health. I’d expect that yards allowed per carry number to fall in the coming weeks as a result. I will say this, however, Derrick Henry’s target totals over the first two games are highly encouraging. That said, the 10 targets he has seen thus far have come in a blowout loss and a shootout, which are unlikely to occur this week.

ALVIN KAMARA

Restrictive chalk. Is Alvin Kamara really going to carry ownership against the Patriots? I’m not so sure this one is accurate, to be completely honest.

SAQUON BARKLEY

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. This one goes against current projections. From public sentiment and everything I’ve gathered, I expect Saquon to garner top two ownership at the position come first kick. When we then consider the first three names on this list, we get a pretty clear idea of how the field will be looking to attack the running back position.

COOPER KUPP

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. One of the perceived top plays, from one of the perceived top game environments.

Chris Godwin

Same as above. Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. One of the perceived top plays, from one of the perceived top game environments.

TYREEK HILL / TRAVIS KELCE

Restrictive chalk. The level of interest I expect to have on these two is almost directly tied to where their expected ownership ends up. I currently don’t foresee either being overly chalky, but there are a ton of questionable players whose absences could fundamentally change the way the field sees the slate.

PAY UP QBs

Restrictive chalk. The top five quarterbacks in expected ownership are currently all priced above $7,000 in salary. People are likely to be hunting for ways to spend salary this week, and many will elect to do so at high variance positions (quarterback and tight end).

CHALK BUILD ::


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