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Edge Bets Week 1

Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting


<< Edge Bets Primer >>


Nick Chubb Rushing Attempts

Prop: 13.5

Book: DraftKings (-135), BetMGM (-117)

Bet: Over

Date Available: September 10th

From Hilow:

“Game sets up well for Cleveland to see 33-35 rush attempts on the ground, split 60/40 amongst Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.”

“The team returns all five starters along an offensive line that ranked first in pass protection and second in run-blocking in 2020, after averaging 30.4 rush attempts per game (fifth in the league).”

“We pretty much know what to expect from this team on the ground. Nick Chubb averaged just a 51.6% snap rate after returning from injury in 2020, leading to an average of 18.5 running back opportunities per game over that time.”

Reasoning:

This is the perfect example of the way we can use The Edge write-ups to identify great prop bets. Hilow gives us an excellent breakdown of expected carries, in the most likely scenario, and the distribution we can expect to see between Chubb and Hunt. We can expect Chubb to come in close to, or above, his 2020 average of 18.5 opportunities (with minimal receiving work) in a game we expect the Browns to keep competitive with the spread hovering around Cleveland +5.0 to +5.5. The Browns want to run the ball, and they match up well to attack a KC defense that is more favorable to run against. 

** Chubb’s prop bets have seen a bit of increased juice since being posted, confirming the great spot highlighted by Hilow. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt’s similarly low Rushing Attempts prop has stayed stagnant at Over 8.5 (+100). Hilow’s expected range from Hunt leaves plenty of value here, coming in between 13-14.

Antonio Gibson Rush Attempts

Prop: 14.5, 13.5

Book: Draftkings (-105), BetMGM (-150)

Bet: Over

Date Available: September 10th

From Papy324:

“Gibson is a Week 1 value based on workload, if you believe coach speak.”

“Washington’s backfield is led by popular breakout candidate Antonio Gibson. There is every reason to think Gibson will be utilized as a 20+-touch per game back, but J.D. McKissic is still on the roster, and it’s hard to envision his passing game role disappearing completely.”

From JM:

“Until I see something to dissuade me of this notion, I’m still viewing Antonio Gibson as a 15-20 touch back.”

Reasoning:

JM identified Antonio Gibson’s talent early in the 2020 season and rightfully pegged him as a player who would become more valuable, and expensive, over the duration of the 2020 season. Well, 2021 is going to be quite the encore. With a tremendous amount of coach speak behind him, as well as Peyton Barber’s departure, Antonio Gibson’s path to increased usage is very clear. Much like JM last year, I want to be early on usage and production props on Gibson this year and believe 13.5 (and 14.5) Rushing Attempts to be significantly under my expected role from the “new CMC.”


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James Robinson Rush + Rec Yards

Prop: 90.5, 91.5

Book: Draftkings (-115), BetMGM (-111)

Bet: Over

Date Available: September 10th

From Hilow:

“James Robinson sets up extremely well here, with likely heavy involvement in the passing game and a robust red zone role”

“James Robinson is one of my early week favorites to hit the rushing bonus on DK and punch one in the end zone; add an expected five to six targets to that, and he becomes one of my favorite early week plays at running back.”

From JM:

“Expect him to see borderline elite usage”

Reasoning:

James Robinson has what will most likely be one of his best Game Environments of the season in a very winnable game against the lowly Houston Texans defense. Listed as a -3.0 favorite, the Jaguars will be able to keep their workhorse back involved for most, if not all, of their Week 1 matchup. With the loss of rookie Travis Etienne, Robinson has become the favorite for pass game work, raising his yardage floor and usage rates, for us to take advantage of early on. While Carlos Hyde may be used in the running game when Robinson needs a breather, we can expect this coaching staff to ride their workhorse in a confidence boosting matchup after seemingly looking to reduce his role earlier in the offseason and through the draft. The Jaguars will also be looking to establish a strong running game to help their rookie QB get comfortable in his transition to the NFL.

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards

Prop: 20.5

Book: DraftKings (-120)

Bet: Over

Date Available: September 10th

From Papy324:

“Expect Ekeler to see 15-20 touches (many of them being receptions)”

“On the ground, Los Angeles should feature Ekeler in the old “Kamara” role. Expect 15-20 high efficiency touches, with as many as half being receptions. ”

From JM:

“Player with the best shot of exploding is Ekeler.”

Reasoning:

While Ekeler is currently limited with a hamstring injury, we have not yet received confirmation on his status for Week 1. This prop has dropped 7 yards with the news, and one to keep an eye on going into Sunday. With the injury, we may expect fewer carries for Ekeler, diminishing his appeal for DFS lineups, while having little effect on his receiving yardage output if he is in fact able to suit up healthy for the Chargers opening game. For one of the best receiving backs in the NFL, this prop is almost certainly low.

**This prop is now at 24.5 with news that Ekeler participated in morning practice

Other +EV Prop Bets in Week 1

1. AJ Brown: Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (DK/Bet MGM -115)

2. Najee Harris: Over 59.3 Rushing Yards (DK -110)

3. George Kittle: Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (Bet MGM -105)

4. Tyler Boyd: Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (Bet MGM -111)

ActionLabs Props Tool

One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Prop Tool from our friends at ActionLabs, in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.